The End of IPv4 Foretold
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Transcript of The End of IPv4 Foretold
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The End of IPv4 ForetoldAlix Guillard, RIPE NCC<[email protected]>
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
About IPv4
• Main Internet protocol
• 32 bits encoded
• 232 (4,294,967,296) unique addresses
• Regional management by five Regional Internet Registries (RIRs)
• Global management by Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA)
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
About IPv4
3
Source: http://xkcd.com/195/
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
About IPv4
4
Source: http://xkcdsw.com/3327
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
About the RIPE NCC
5
Five Regional Internet Registries
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
About the RIPE NCC
• Dutch non-profit company
• Members (LIRs) are mainly the Internet Service Providers (ISPs)
• Region: Europe, Middle East, parts of Central Asia
• Regional registry for AS Numbers and IP addresses
• RIPE Database maintenance
• Other services: tools, training, statistics, meetings
• Bottom-up governance (RIPE community)
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
About RIPE
• Internet community at large
• Open to anyone interested, no structure
• Discussions on mailing lists and during RIPE Meetings
• Organised in Working Groups
• Decisions are taken by consensus
• The RIPE NCC implements decisions taken by RIPE
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
About RIPE: procedures
• Proposal
• Initial discussion
• Document writing
• Review
• Last call
• Consensus
• RIPE Document
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More info: http://ripe.net/training/pdp
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
About RIPE: procedures
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Source:http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
The end of IPv4
• The end of IPv4 isn’t easy to predict
• Internet growth fluctuates
• Resources attribution rate changes
• Users’ reaction is unpredictable– Panic, rationing, hoarding...
• Procedures evolve
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
The end of IPv4
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• The end of IPv4 isn’t easy to predict
• Internet growth fluctuates
• Resources attribution rate changes
• Users reaction is unpredictable– Panic, rationing, hoarding...
• Procedures evolve
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
The end of IPv4
• 3 February 2011
• IANA’s reserve was exhausted
• RIRs still have reserves
• IPv4 is still widely used
• This is not yet the end
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
The end of IPv4
• 3 policies aimed to be tied up with the end of IPv4– 3 accepted proposals
– 3 RIPE policies
– 3 phases of IPv4 exhaustion
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
The end of IPv4
• 3 policies aimed to be tied up with the end of IPv4– 3 accepted proposals
– 3 RIPE policies
– 3 phases of IPv4 exhaustion
• Global fairness (2008-03)
• Regional care (2009-03)
• Rationing (2010-02)
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 15
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)
• Global Policy (all RIRs are concerned)
• IANA IPv4 allocations to the RIRs
• One of the last five /8s for each of the five RIRs– Regions with strong growth would have enough resources to implement IPv6
– Regions with lower growth will have more time to implement IPv6
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)
• Global policy– 5 regional policies
– Same text
– Accepted in 5 regions
– Submitted to ICANN
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Source: http://nro.net/policies/global-policies-development-process
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)
• Global policy– 5 regional policies
– Same text
– Accepted in 5 regions
– Submitted to ICANN
17
Source: http://nro.net/policies/global-policies-development-process
apnic-086
ripe-436 ARIN nrpm 10.4
LACNIC Policy Manual 9.2
AFPUB-2009-v4-001
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 18
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)
19
Source:http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
RIR Address Pool Size
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)
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Source:http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
RIR Address Pool Size
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
• Regional policy (only in RIPE NCC service region)
• RIPE NCC IPv4 allocations to LIRs
• Reduction of LIRs’ allocation period
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The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 22
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
Source:http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530
« Run out fairly »Trying to reduce impression of unfairness with the last allocations
July 2010 = 9 months
January 2011 = 6 months
July 2011 = 3 months
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 23
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
• It’s too early to know if « Run out fairly » was efficient– IPv4 still left in RIPE NCC pool
– All LIRs are still served according to their needs
– but...
• APNIC reached its last /8– In this region, LIRs are not served according to their needs
– No unfairness sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 24
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 25
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 26
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
needs for 12 months needs for 9 months needs for 6 months needs for 3 months
IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 27
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
needs for 12 months needs for 9 months needs for 6 months needs for 3 months
IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 28
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
needs for 12 months needs for 9 months needs for 6 months needs for 3 months
IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 29
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
RIPE NCC IPv4 pool
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
• Regional policy (also policy in another region)
• Implemented for /8 of the pool
• LIRs will only receive one /22 once
• LIRs must deploy IPv6
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The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 31
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)Last /8 PolicyWhen the RIPE NCC reaches the last /8 of its pool, every LIR will only be able to get one /22 on the condition it already has an IPv6 allocation
On top of this, the RIPE NCC keeps one /16 just in case.
Source:http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 32
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
• Very constraining policy for LIRs– for many of them, resources are already exhausted
• Small benefit for the community– LIRs with little need can still get what they require
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
• Small benefit for LIRs– no direct advantage to deploy IPv6
• Strong constraint for the community– If only one LIR doesn’t deploy, all will have a problem
33
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
IPv6 non-deployment
• Very constraining policy for LIRs– for many of them, resources are already exhausted
• Small benefit for the community– LIRs with little need can still get what they require
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
• Same policy in Asia-Pacific region
• APNIC reached its last /8
• For many the shortage is already here
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The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
• Same policy in Asia-Pacific region
• APNIC reached its last /8
• For many the shortage is already here
35
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
Source:http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
• Alternatives adopted by LIRs in the APNIC region– IPv6 ?
– NAT
– CGN
– Transfers
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The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 37
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
Source:http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530
TransfersTransfers are authorised by RIRs.
The new recipient must justify his need.
The new recipient must be in the same region.
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 38
IPv6 UptakeThe plan
Source:http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 39
IPv6 UptakeThe reality (in 2009)
Source:http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 40
IPv6 Uptake
• The RIPE NCC supports IPv6 uptake– Trainings, IPv6ActNow.org, RIPE Labs
• The RIPE NCC measures IPv6 uptake– IPv6 RIPEness
– IPv6 ASN count
– World IPv6 Day
• Others measure IPv6 uptake– Google, Yahoo...
– Alexa
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 41
IPv6 RIPEness
Source:http://ipv6ripeness.ripe.net/http://labs.ripe.net/Members/mirjam/ipv6-ripeness/
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
RU UK DE IT FR NL ES SE CH CZ PL NO AT UA
TOP 15 countries with most LIRs1star 2star 3star 4star No IPv6
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 42
IPv6 ASN Count
Source:http://v6asns.ripe.net
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 43
World IPv6 Day
Sources:http://labs.ripe.net/ipv6day
• RIPE NCC made tests before, during and after this day
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 44
World IPv6 Day
• Percentage of users
• Yahoo
• RIPE NCC
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World IPv6 Day
• Percentage of users
• Google : 0,11%
• Yahoo : 0,22%
• RIPE NCC
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 46
World IPv6 Day
• Percentage of users
• Google : 0,11%
• Yahoo : 0,22%
• RIPE NCC : 5%
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 47
World IPv6 DayVisitors on ripe.net
ripe.net only delivers 2% of its users in IPv6 but 6% of them can already use IPv6.
Visitors with IPv6 compatible resolvers reached 12% in October 2011.
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 48
World IPv6 DayBiggest websites
4% of the world biggest websites participated in World IPv6 Day.
Some of them didn’t switch off IPv6 after this day.
More infos on : http://labs.ripe.net/
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IPv6 UptakeIPv6 map
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Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011
IPv6 UptakeIPv6 map
Address space allocated during the last 100 years
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Questions?