The Elec t i on Landscape 2016-2018

Ref l e c t i ons and Proj e c t i ons

Hosted by the University of Florida’s graduate program in Political Campaigning

January 27, 2017 at the Hilton University of Florida

Host Stephen Craig, who received his Ph.D. from Northwestern University, is Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida, and has been director of the UF Graduate Program in Political Campaigning since its inception in 1985. He is author of The Malevolent Leaders: Popular Discontent in America (1993), editor or co-editor of The Electoral Challenge: Theory Meets Practice (2010), Ambivalence and the Structure of Political Opinion (2005), Ambivalence, Politics, and Public Policy (2005), After the Boom: The Politics of Generation X (1997), and Broken Contract? Changing Relationships between Citizens and Their Government in the United States (1996), and numerous articles in professional journals. Craig has worked extensively with both academic and political surveys, and has done polling and focus-group research for clients in Florida and elsewhere. Participants Roger Austin is a Gainesville-based political consultant and a serial graduate of the University of Florida (including a J.D. received from the Levin College of Law). After serving as political director and legal counsel for the Republican Party of Florida from 1989-92, he moved into the private sector and started his own firm in 1996. He has consulted with candidates for state and local office in all parts of Florida. Working between campaign cycles, Austin completed his Ph.D. in Political Science at the University of Florida in 2015; his dissertation was titled Patterns of Failure–Rethinking Campaign Finance Reform: What Went Wrong? He also teaches classes in campaign management for the Graduate Program in Political Campaigning. Barry Edwards, who received his B.A. from Florida State University, is a political consultant and political strategist located in St Petersburg; FL. He is a former finance and trustee director of the Florida Democratic Party, and a veteran of numerous high-profile statewide races working for the House and Senate Victory Caucus, Education Commissioner Betty Castor, U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel, and the Clinton '96 re-election campaign. Barry is a frequent guest on Tampa Bay market political shows, and a weekly commentator for Newstalk Florida. He also is a frequent lecturer before political and civic groups, and has taught applied politics and issue advocacy in universities across the country, and has extensive policy experience as former aide to Sen. Jeanne Malchon (author of the first Clean Indoor Air Act and Florida's first Right to Know Law). Most recently Barry was the lead consultant for Sen. Darryl Rouson’s victory in Florida SD19. Becca Guerra is executive director of the Florida c3 Civic Engagement Table. Prior to her role leading Florida's largest voter registration and civic engagement programs, she served as the deputy director of ProGeorgia, the Georgia affiliate of State Voices. She also has worked for the NAACP as a regional organizer and regional director across the South and Mid-Atlantic regions, including Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. Her efforts with the NAACP focused on civic engagement, issue campaigns, and community-based organizing. During her time at NARAL Pro-Choice America, Becca focused on affiliate support based around civic engagement efforts, capacity building, and grassroots organizing. She has worked for the Democratic Party of both New Mexico and Florida. A proud Gator, Becca has a B.A. in History and an M.A. in Political Science from the University of Florida. David Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a public opinion and marketing research firm with clients nationwide. He became a political pollster and consultant in 1984 after serving as a university professor for 10 years, including a tenured post at Texas A&M University. He has advised more than a dozen U.S. senators and governors (among them Mel Martinez and Bob Martinez, Florida's first Hispanic senator and governor, respectively). Hill also consults with numerous national advocacy groups and has polled for almost 30 successful constitutional amendment initiatives in a half-dozen states, six in Florida. In 2016, he was senior pollster for the Jeb Bush campaign, advised several industry, trade, and civic organizations in Colorado, consulted with an Iowa think-tank, assisted the reelection campaign of Michigan Congressman Fred Upton, polled for the Trust for Public Land, and helped with updating the newest edition of America: The Owner’s Manual, by Senator Bob Graham and Chris Hand. His agenda for the upcoming electoral cycle includes gubernatorial elections in Colorado and Iowa, as

well as ballot measures in Colorado and Florida, among others. Jim Kane is founder of the independent political research and survey organization, The Florida Voter; established in 1994, The Florida Voter provides detailed information on state elections and demographics. Over the past thirty years, Kane also has conducted polls on behalf of candidates, sponsors of referendums, state political parties, business groups, and media organizations such as the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. He has frequently taught courses in survey research, campaign management, and lobbying for the UF Political Campaigning Program. Working with other faculty members, Kane has co-authored numerous articles, book chapters, and conference papers that deal with various aspects of public opinion and voting behavior in the United States. Jim Kitchens, founder of the Orlando-based public opinion research firm, The Kitchens Group, is an attitude and mass persuasion specialist with a Ph.D. in Political Communication from the University of Florida. He has served as a pollster and strategist at all levels of American politics, advising more than 40 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and executing national policy polls for the House Democratic Caucus. Kitchens also has consulted in numerous statewide campaigns for U.S. Senate, governor, and state cabinet positions. He has become a leader in conducting Internet-based political polls, and is author of Four Pillars of Politics: Why Some Can’t Win and Others Can’t Lead (Lexington Books, 2015). Susan MacManus received her M.A. from the University of Michigan and Ph.D. from Florida State University, and is currently Distinguished Professor of Public Administration and Political Science in the Department of Government and International Affairs, University of South Florida. After 20 years as a political analyst with the Tampa Bay NBC affiliate, in 2016 she moved to WFTS-TV (ABC Action News); she also is director of the annual USF-Nielsen Sunshine State Survey, and a featured columnist for sayfiereview.com. MacManus is author of Florida's Politics, 3rd ed., with Thomas R. Dye, Aubrey Jewett, and David Bonanza (2011); Young v. Old: Generational Combat in the 21st Century? (1996); Targeting Senior Voters (2004); and Florida's Politics: Ten Media Markets, One Powerful State with Kevin Hill and Dario Moreno (2004). Coming from a citrus-raising family in Pasco County, MacManus and her mother, Elizabeth, have written two local Florida history books published by the University of Tampa Press: Citrus, Sawmills, Critters & Crackers (1998) and Going, Going, Almost Gone: Lutz-Land O' Lakes Pioneers Share Their Precious Memories (2012). Beth Reinhard is a national politics reporter at the Wall Street Journal. In 2016 she covered the presidential race, focusing initially on the Republican primary and then on Donald Trump. She previously worked at National Journal magazine in Washington, D.C. Beth spent most of her career in her home state of Florida, first at the Palm Beach Post and then at The Miami Herald, where she covered politics. She received her bachelor’s degree in English from the University of Pennsylvania and a master’s degree from the Columbia University School of Journalism. Steven Schale has over two decades of experience at all levels of Florida politics. In 2008, he directed Barack Obama's campaign in Florida, returning in 2012 to serve as the president's senior Florida advisor. From 2005-08, Schale ran the Florida House Democratic Caucus, where he picked off nine Republican seats (to date the party's biggest gain over 50 years). In 2014, he served as senior advisor to Gwen Graham's successful campaign for Congress, and in 2016, was the national spokesperson for the Draft Joe Biden for President effort. Today he provides strategic advice to a number of clients including Walt Disney World, AT&T, Mosaic, and the Florida Hospital Association. Schale is a graduate of the University of the South with degrees in History and Political Science, and received his Masters in Communications from FSU. Married to Nikole, he is also a member of Leadership Florida, Class 31, serves on the board of the Epilepsy Foundation of Florida, and is active with the American Council of Young Political Leaders, for which he served on a delegation to the ASEAN region in 2013. Joel Searby is a consultant with more 10 years of experience in the realms of political campaigning, governmental affairs, corporate and non-profit strategic planning, leadership development, and faith-based initiatives. He has worked with campaigns and organizations across a wide spectrum of sizes and resources – from local candidates to managing Evan McMullin's independent presidential campaign in 2016, and from small trade associations with a

few thousand members to some of the nation's largest with over 100,000 members and multi-million dollar budgets. Joel especially seeks out challenging situations that require intense focus and creative solutions to difficult problems be they getting elected, passing or defeating legislation, strategizing through difficult organizational transformation, or identifying and equipping leaders. He is a graduate of Lincoln Christian University, and lives with his wife Jen and their two children in nearby Archer, FL. Elizabeth Christie Sena is a vice president of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (GQR) and managing director of GQR Canada, a leading opinion research and strategic consulting firm. She has worked in the state of Florida for every cycle since 2004, her clients including ACT, Senate Majority PAC, labor unions, and candidates for Congress. Since graduating from the Political Campaigning program in 2004, Elizabeth has become a leader in online polling, merging polling and analytics, and is the most successful independent expenditure pollster in Canada (leading the independent expenditure effort to unseat Conservative Stephen Harper as Prime Minister). In the 2016 cycle, she served as one of the pollsters on several large scale analytic programs, multi-state independent expenditures, and post-election analysis. She is currently co-teaching the Campaigning Program’s seminar in Advanced Strategy. Scott Simpson is the managing partner of Resonance Campaigns, a direct mail firm in Washington, D.C. His clients include Equality Florida, AFSCME, SEIU, Oregon Governor Kate Brown, Maryland Congressman Steny Hoyer, Color of Change, Florida Senator Linda Stewart, and the Human Rights Campaign. After graduating from the UF Campaigning Program in 2003, Simpson worked with the polling firms Lake Research and Hamilton Campaigns, where he conducted research in Florida and across the country for candidates, ballot initiatives, and labor organizations. Recognized as a Campaigns and Elections Rising Star in 2011, he is currently co-teaching the Campaigning Program’s seminar on Advanced Strategy. Adam Smith, who has been named the best political writer in Florida by washingtonpost.com and one of the country's top ten political reporters by Columbia Journalism Review, joined the St. Petersburg Times in 1992, and became its political editor in 2001. He covers both local and state governments, as well as general assignment and investigative beats. Smith also created the award-winning Florida politics blog, The Buzz. He grew up in New York City, and graduated from Kenyon College in Ohio. Daniel Smith is a Research Foundation Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. His research is focused on understanding how political institutions affect political behavior across and within the American states. Smith has published three books and more than sixty scholarly articles and book chapters on politics and elections in the American states. A seasoned observer of ballot initiative and candidate elections in Florida and around the country, he has served as an expert in numerous lawsuits dealing with campaign finance, election administration, voting rights, and redistricting. Workshop Schedule of Events 9:00-9:30………………………………..…………………….……….…………………..Continental Breakfast 9:30-11:45…………………………………..……………………..………. .Retrospective on the 2016 Election 11:45-1:15…………………….……………..……………………………………….…………...…Buffet Lunch 1:15-3:30……………………..………………..……….……………….…………………A Look Ahead to 2018