The Effects Of Climate Change S. Elwynn Taylor Agronomist, Extension Climatologist
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Transcript of The Effects Of Climate Change S. Elwynn Taylor Agronomist, Extension Climatologist
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The Effects
OfClimate Change
S. Elwynn TaylorAgronomist, Extension ClimatologistIowa State University, Ames, Iowa
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• How much wetter than usual was June?
• In 1988: How many Window Air Units can we sell?
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2014: Are the Hurricanes going to all be in the Pacific Now?
Simon
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http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/wobbly-polar-vortex-triggers-extreme-cold-air-outbreak
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/polar-vortex-brings-cold-here-and-there-not-everywhere
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The Management Question:
Is this the “NEW Normal”or is this the “Same Old Same Old”
?
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Climate,Past & Future
“The climate is changing, climate has always changed & will always change. The question is; ‘how much, how fast, how come?’ ” D. M. Gates ‘66
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Will the “New” Dwarf the “Old.”
The Old is still with us.
The “New” is, however, very real: & the “Problem” is US (with apologies to Pogo)
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Do People Change the Earth’s Climate ?
Remember: There is a lot more to climate than simply Temperature and Rain.
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b
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The VICIOUS CYCLE
Population
Agriculture
Climate
Who will BREAK the CYCLE ?
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http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/files/images/forests/amazon/amazon-fires-aug08.jpg
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On the Same Old - - - -
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123.4
2004 - 9
158.8
(+16 to 19 cents)
174 9%
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La Nina : Extremes
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif
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Final, Revised for: Bulletin of the American MeteorologicalSociety, Vol. 77, No. 2, Feb. 1996, pp 279-292.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gcps/papers/icc-us.pdf
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The NEW Corn belt
• Remember when it was the price of “Crude” that impacted energy cost?
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•
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Increased Stream Flow:Increased # of Flood-prone Years
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
f(x) = 6.93204241599198 x − 12627.4395898116
Turkey River at Garber, IA
1
2
34
5
67
8
9
10
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19 yr Dry/WetTree rings indicate climate cycles.
wet
dry
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Heat & Water Stress
& 90 year cycles
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Tree RingsRoanoke, NC cypress tree. Dennis Blanton, Wm & Mary College, David Stahle, Univ. of Arkansas.
U.S. droughtstarts here.
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800 Year Rain (Virginia)
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Do People Change the Earth’s Climate ?
Remember: There is a lot more to climate than simply Temperature and Rain.
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b
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Secondary CO2 impacts on climate are a major area of research.
It appears that the effect on day-night temperature range may be of high significance
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Tillage of the Soilvs
Clearing of the Forest
Can Agriculture change from cause to cure?Can a farm be a “good” as a Prairie?
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Reasons Corn Production is Up
1: Growing corn is profitable
2:
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http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/servlet/GetNewsImage?path=0702BAD4.gif&width=
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Profit in AgKnow what is going on
Manage the Risk
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1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
Season-average Price Cost per Bushel
$ pe
r bu
shel
Corn Price vs Cost
•
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High risk Moderate High
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stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137
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