BEET 2013

International Economics (Group A)

The Impact of Trade Agreement: ASEAN-Korea FTA (AKFTA) to

Indonesia and South Korea

By:

Meyta Hana Merylana 700291

Pratama Adi Nugraha 700292

Bina Andhika 700293

Novi Amalia Santika Putri 700294

Rafi Achas Muhammad 700295

Table of Contents

1. Introduction.................................................................................................................................1

2. Literature Review.......................................................................................................................3

2.1 Goods Trade Agreement: ASEAN-Korea FTA between ASEAN and South Korea.3

2.2 Preferrential Tariff AKFTA................................................................................................4

2.3 Implementation of AKFTA on Domestic Regulation.....................................................6

2.4 Theoritical Framework......................................................................................................7

3. Methodology...............................................................................................................................8

3.1 Method of Analysis............................................................................................................9

3.2 Data and Variables..........................................................................................................10

4. Structure Analysis of Indonesian Trade with South Korea................................................11

5. Result Forecast and Analysis................................................................................................15

5.1 Indonesia’s Exports to South Korea..............................................................................15

5.2 South Korea’s Export to Indonesia................................................................................17

6. Conclusion and Recomendation...........................................................................................19

6.1 Conclusions......................................................................................................................19

6.2 Recommendations...........................................................................................................20

References....................................................................................................................................22

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1. IntroductionIn todays world, no country can be separated from international trade. International

trade is the exchange of goods or services along international borders. This type

of trade allows for a greater competition and more competitive pricing in the market.

The competition results in more affordable products for the consumer. The exchange

of goods also affects the economy of the world as dictated by supply and

demand, making goods and services obtainable which may not otherwise be

available to consumersglobally.

Global trade allows wealthy countries to use their resources - whether labor.

technology or capital - more efficiently. Because countries are endowed with

different assets and natural resources (land, labor, capital and technology), some

countries may produce the same good more efficiently and therefore sell it more

cheaply than other countries. If a country cannot efficiently produce an item, it can

obtain the item by trading with another country that can. This is known

as specialization in international trade.

In international trade, trade agreement also made between two countries or more

than two in order to improve trade with each other, for example by removing taxes.

This paper will see and focus on one trade agreement which is ASEAN-Korea Free

Trade Area (AKFTA). It is a trade agreement which involving ASEAN countries

(including Indonesia) and South Korea. Preferential treatment is given to countries

that are members of the agreement in three sectors: sector of goods, services, and

investment, with the aim to speeding the flow of goods, services, and investment

among member states so as to form a free trade area. AKFTA initial negotiation

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process began in early 2005 and on December 13, 2005 Framework for

Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (Framework Agreement on

Comprehensive Economic Cooperation) AKFTA could be signed by the heads of

ASEAN countries and South Korea in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Since then, the technical talks on the three sectors starting where the agreement for

the three-sectors can be completed in different phases. Goods trade deal could be

completed earliest with the signing of trade agreements goods AKFTA on August 24.

2006 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. While two other agreements in the sector of trade

in services and investment sector could only be completed respectively in 2007 and

2009. The services trade agreement signed by the current economic ministers of

ASEAN Summit in Singapore in 2007, while AKFTA investment agreement was

signed on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit Korea in June 2009 in Jeju Island,

South Korea.

In AKFTA goods trade agreements, ASEAN countries and South Korea agreed to the

elimination or reduction of tariff barriers and non-tariff. In the elimination or reduction

of tariff scheme is regulated in detail programs and reduction or elimination of

progressive rates, which are divided into categories of Normal Track. Sensitive List

and Highly Sensitive List. Normal Track which covers most types of products, be

gradual decline since goods trade agreement is effective until the deadline for the

entire postal rates to 0% no later than January 1, 2010 to South Korea and January

1, 2012 for ASEAN 6. The other ASEAN countries in outside ASEAN 6, or which can

be called CLMV (Cambodia. Lao PDR. Myanmar. Viet Nam) are given flexibility in

the form of additional time varying nature.

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National income is one of the three indicators to measure the impact of an FTA to a

state of activity in international trade (Llyoid and McLaren 2004). In the Keynesian

model of the four sectors, one of the components of national income is the

contribution of exports. Positive changes contribution of exports to national income of

Indonesia and South Korea in conjunction with Indonesia-South Korea trade

indicates the positive impact of AKFTA against both countries.

Preferential tariff scheme on ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Area (AKFTA) Trade

Agreement in Goods have been above seven years after its entry info force on July

1, 2007, as stated in Minister of Finance Decree Number 131/PMK.011/2007. Its

impact assessment should be conducted to review the expected gains for Indonesia

and its country partner. South Korea from joining the agreement. This paper

employed a quantitative approach to measure and analyze the gains received by the

two countries in AKFTA Trade Agreement in Goods from the increase of export

growth and export contribution to national income.

2. Literature Review

2.1 Goods Trade Agreement: ASEAN-Korea FTA between ASEAN and South Korea.ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Area (AKFTA) is an agreement between ASEAN member

countries with South Korea, which aims to create a free trade area in the three main

sectors, namely trade in goods, trade in services, and investment. In trade in goods,

the efforts is through the elimination or reduction of tariff barriers or non-tariff.

According to Article 2.1 of the Framework Agreement Comprehensive Economic

Cooperation between ASEAN and Korea on trade in goods, both ASEAN and South

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Korea have agreed on a progressive reduction scheme and the elimination of export

duties (tariffs) and other regulations (non-tariff) that is inhibiting. Exclusion of goods

from the scheme governed by Article XXIV (8) (b) of GATT 1994).

Agreement on Trade in Goods AKFTA include:

(a) the detailed rules governing the program and the reduction or elimination of

progressive tariff rates and also other related matters;

(b) rules of origin (ROO);

(c) modification of commitments

(d) non-tariff policy. sanitary and phytosanitary measures. and technical barriers to

trade;

(e) protection policy;

(f) discipline and reduction. elimination of non-tariff barriers by WTO.

2.2 Preferrential Tariff AKFTA.

Indonesia participated in the goods trade agreements AKFTA by considering some of

the benefits to be obtained. In terms of market access, Indonesia will be able to

improve access to export markets Indonesia to South Korea along with the

implementation of the elimination of tariffs gradually entering South Korea is divided

into several categories of tariff elimination: (1) Normal Track, (2) Sensitive List, and

(3) Highly Sensitive List. South Korea began categorizing Normal Track by doing

70% of tariff lines when the agreement was effective. ± 95% of tariff lines to South

Korea in 2008, and the entire South Korean tariff lines in 2010. The type of

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Indonesian exports to South Korea to enjoy the reduction Normal Track rates include

live animals, fish, vegetables, palm oil, chemical products, paper products, textiles

and textile products, footwear, leather, and wood products. In return, Indonesia and

other ASEAN 6 countries provide tariff concessions with a decrease of 50% of tariff

lines to 0-5% since the agreement effective goods, a minimum 90% rate no later than

1 January 2009, and eliminate all the tariff items at the latest January 1, 2010 with

maximum flexibility 5% of tariff lines and deadlines rates to 0% can be postponed no

later than January 1, 2012.

Regarding the Sensitive Track, the products fit into the category of the Sensitive

Track is a product that is considered sensitive and import duty rates will be lowered

with a slower pattern than the product in the category of Normal Track. There are

464 tariff lines (HS-6 digit) in the list of products Sensitive Track AKFTA agreement.

The 464 tariff lines among others: products related to fisheries, rice, sugar, wine-

alcohol, chemical products, textiles, and steel.

The maximum number of tariff lines in the Sensitive Track ASEAN 6 and South

Korea is 10% of the total tariff lines (Total HS. 6 Digit = 5.225 tariff lines or Total HS.

10 Digit = 11 171 tariff lines) and 10% of the total value of imports from South Korea

or from ASEAN as a whole based on last year trade data. Sensitive Track 2 is

divided into:

(i) Sensitive List (SL)

- Lowering MFN tariffs applicable to the Sensitive List to 20% no later than

January 1, 2012.

- This rate will be gradually reduced to 0-5% not later than January 1, 2016.

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(ii)Highly Sensitive List (HSL). with a maximum of 200 tariff lines (HS 6-digit) or 3%

of the total tariff lines and 3% of the total value import of individual ASEAN

countries of South Korea and vice versa.

ASEAN and South Korea agreed on the use of general rule to set the rules of origin

of goods by using a regional value content of not less than 40% of FOB (known as

RVC-40) or a Change of Rates Heading (CTH) and Product Special Rules (PSR) for

products that do not use the general rule.

2.3 Implementation of AKFTA on Domestic Regulation.

In order to organize the implementation of AKFTA, the Indonesian government has

issued several regulations related to the presidential level until ministerial level.

Ratification of the AKFTA economic cooperation framework had been done through

the issuance of Presidential Decree of the Republic of Indonesia Number 11 of 2007

on the Ratification of the Framework Agreement On Comprehensive economic Co-

Operation Among The Government of the Member Countries of the Association of

Southeast Asian Nations and the Republic of Korea. Regarding the tariff regulation

on goods trade agreement, the Minister of Finance has issued a series of

Regulations of the Minister of Finance (PMK). namely:

Regulation of the Minister of Finance No. 75 / PMK.011 / 2007 dated July 3.

2007 on the Establishment of rates of import duty in the framework of the

ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Area. which became effective July 1, 2007.

Regulation of the Minister of Finance No. 131 / PMK.011 / 2007 dated October

30, 2007 on the Amendment to the Regulation of the Minister of Finance No.

75 / PMK.011 / 2007 on the Establishment of rates of import duty in the

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framework of the ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Area. which has a validity and

retroactively from 1 July 2007.

Regulation of the Minister of Finance No. 41 / PMK.011 / 2008 dated March 3,

2008 on the Establishment of rates of import duty in the framework of ASEAN-

Korea Free trade area and has a validity retroactively from January 1, 2008.

Regulation of the Minister of Finance No. 236 / PMK.011 / 2008 dated

December 23, 2008 on the Establishment of rates of import duty in the

framework of the ASEAN-Korea Free trade area effective January 1, 2009.

This is the PMK PMK last time of this study.

2.4 Theoritical Framework.

Research Dee (2011) using CGE models conclude that the increasing in openness of

the market as a result of trade liberalization policies (including a free trade

agreement/FTA, preferential trade agreements/PTA, custom union, common market)

may cause a positive contribution to the national income and growth economy, job

creation and productivity growth. For a country that suffered a surge in

unemployment rate increases due to the current economic crisis, the benefits in the

short term is the unemployment rate. While the benefits in the long term is even more

important to increase economic activity and growth in productivity.

From the point international trade theory point of view, the positive impact of an FTA

or PTA (eg AKFTA) can be described in models of preferential trade (Markusen

1995). In these models (in the context of AKFTA), preferential trade will lead to trade

creation and trade diversion that would increase domestic welfare Indonesia and

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South Korea. In a simple model of preferential trade, domestic trade creation will

improve the welfare of both parties.

Furthermore, Lloyd and MacLaren (2004) explains that there are three main

variables that most relevant in the assessment of the impact of an FTA on member

states and non-members, namely: (1) national income, (2) the terms of trade, and (3)

welfare (welfare).

3. MethodologyBased on the Regulation of the Minister of Finance No. 131 / PMK.011 / 2007 dated

October 30, 2007, the general scheme AKFTA rates that have been described in

section 2.2 will be effective from July 1, 2007. so the time of this writing drafted (in

November 2014) the scheme has been running more of seven years.

This study will simulate what if the period July 1, 2007- June 31, 2013 AKFTA tariff

scheme is not applied, so that by comparing with the actual conditions in the same

period (which actually AKFTA tariff scheme has been effective) can calculate the

impact of the AKFTA tariff scheme implementation to the national income.

Contribution to national income will be calculated by the comparison of increasing in

the value of exports goods in trade relations between Indonesia - South Korea with

AKFTA tariff scheme and the simulation results without AKFTA tariff scheme. The

increase in the value of exports affect the national income between two countries,

because the value of exports is one of the components of the national income of the

Keynesian model of the four factors.

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In this study, the approach that is used to measure the impact of market openness

through FTA for Indonesia and South Korea are the contribution to the national

income as stated by Dee (2011) and Lloyd and MacLaren (2004). If the contribution

is positive, the positive impact of the FTA between the two countries, and vice-versa.

As mentioned earlier, the contribution to the national income measured by a

comparison of the increase in the value of exports between the two countries with

AKFTA tariff scheme and the simulation results without AKFTA tariff scheme at a

certain period.

It is assumed in this study that economic factor which has a significant effect on the

time after July 1, 2007 is ‘AKFTA tariff scheme’, while other economic factors that

may affect trade between Indonesia and South Korea in the period July 1, 2007 -

June 31, 2014 is fixed (ceteris paribus) or insignificant so that it can be ignored.

3.1 Method of Analysis

To simulate the conditions without AKFTA scheme. this study used a model

calculation of average from Forecast Excel Function.

Forecast Excel has function to Calculates, or Predicts, a future value by using

existing values. The predicted value is a y-value for a given x-value. The known

values are existing x-values and y-values, and the new value is predicted by using

linear regression. This function can be used to Predict future sales, inventory

requirements, or consumer trends.

The equation for FORECAST is a + bx. where:

equation

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and:

Where X is the data to be predicted.

Known_y’s is the value of historical export data

Known_x’s is the years of historical export data

Then the trading conditions with and without the FTA is compared. It is assumed that

the other factors that can affect the trade flow with FTA and without FTA is rejected

or ignored.

3.2 Data and Variables

The source of data is the Indonesia’s exports to South Korea and Indonesia’s import

from South Korea, data compiled by the Directorate General of Customs, Ministry of

Finance, Ministry of Industry, Bank of Indonesia, and Statistics Indonesia.

The variables in this study are Indonesia’s and South Korea’s export with AKFTA

tariff scheme, as well as simulation results of Indonesian exports and imports of

South Korea without AKFTA tariff scheme. Observation period of research variables

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is 7 period-years after AKFTA tariff is regulated (1 July 2007-30 June 2013) and 7

period-years before AKFTA tariff is regulated (1 July 2000-30 June 2007).

4. Structure Analysis of Indonesian Trade with South KoreaIndonesia-South Korea trade can not be separated from the World Economic. For

example when there was a global economic and financial crisis triggered by the

subprime mortgage case in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2008 and then

spread to all parts of the world. In the year of 2009 global trade fell 22.6%, this

caused the total trade between Indonesia and South Korea decreased into a poor

number of exports and imports. The exports from Indonesia to South Korea fell to

30% from 2008.

After the recession in 2008/2009, both countries Indonesia and South Korea began

to improve. In 2010, the total exports from Indonesia to South Korea increased by

60%, and the total Indonesian imports from South Korea increased by 64%.

Indonesia as one of ASEAN member countries with most populous and largest

market has good relations with South Korea, especially after the forming of ASEAN-

Korea FTA. Total Indonesia’s and South Korea’s trade reached US $ 23.1 billion

(2013), in which the Indonesian exports to South Korea in 2014 reached US $ 11.4

billion and imports of Indonesia from South Korea in the same year reached US $

11.6 billion dollars. The amount represents 6% of total exports and total imports of

Indonesia.

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From the total trade between two countries during the 5 (five) years (2009-2013)

shows a positive growth by an average of 16.95% with a trade surplus was on the

side of Indonesia. Yet In 2013, Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of US $ 170 million,

a decrease of 94.1% compared to the year 2013 in when Indonesia recorded a

surplus of US $ 3.08 billion.

Indonesian exports to South Korea are dominated by Rubber. Statistics Indonesian

data in the year of 2011 stated that Rubber exports worth US$ 564 million. The

second and third most exported products are Textile and Steel respectively. Textile

exports to South Korea valued US$ 513 million, while Steel exports worth US$ 413

million. Furthermore, commodites exported in the same year followed by Paper Pulp

(US$ 363 million), Electronics (US$ 323 million), Chemicals (US$ 253 million) and

Palm Oil (US$ 247 million).

Meanwhile South Korea's exports to Indonesia (or Indonesian imports from South

Korea) are dominated by steel machines and automotive imports worth US$ 2.4

million with 32.26% positive trend in the past 5 years. The second and third most

imported products are Textile and Chemicals respectively. In 2011, textile imports

valued US$ 1.4 million while chemicals imports worth US$ 1.3 million. Furthermore,

commodity imports in the same year followed by Electronics (US$ 924 Million),

Copper Tin (US$ 250 million), Alumunium (US$ 134million) and Electricity tools (US$

123 million). The least imported product is Rattan Processed. worth only US$ 500.

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Figure 4.1: Indonesia’s Export Destination

In 2012 South Korea was ranked 7 of exports destinations and ranked 6th country of

origin of imported Indonesian. Contribution of Indonesia's exports to South Korea

from Indonesia's total exports amounted to 4.3% and the contribution of imports from

South Korea amounted to 6% of the total imports of Indonesia. China and Japan are

still the main exporters and importers of Indonesia.

ASEAN Countries such as Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, ranked in top 10 export

and import of Indonesia. This defines that ASEAN FTA is contributing well to its

members.

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Source: Ministry of Trade, Statistics Indonesia

Figure 4.2: Indonesia’s Import Contribution

Source: Ministry of Trade. Statistics Indonesia

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5. Result Forecast and Analysis

5.1 Indonesia’s Exports to South Korea

Figure 5.1: Forecast Result Indonesia’s Export to South Korea without AKFTA Tariff (in US$)

Source: Analysis Result

The total value of Indonesia's exports to South Korea for 7 years after the forming of

preferential tariff scheme ASEAN-Korean FTA (the period July 2007-June 2014) was

US$ 82,352,702,226. While the absence of preferential tariff schemes AKFTA, the

total value of Indonesia's exports to South Korea will only reach US$

71,021,442,025. Thus, the existence of preferential tariff AKFTA have an impact on

increasing the total value of Indonesia's exports to South Korea net for 7 years since

the establishment of AKFTA for US$ 11,331,260,201 or an average of US$

1,618,751,457 per year. For the actual conditions in which the AKFTA scheme

applies, by comparing the data before AKFTA period (1) until (7) with the data after

AKFTA in the same period (1) until (7) can be seen the impressive improvement.

Before AKFTA was formed. the total value of Indonesia’s exports to South Korea

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from period (1) until period (7) was US$ 37,168,745,581. Meanwhile, after the

establishment of AKFTA the total value of Indonesia’s exports to South Korea was

US$ 82,352,702,226. The growth was 121%.

Table 5.1: Indonesia’s Export Value to South Korea With and Without AKFTA Tariff

Period Total Exports Value

(US$)

Pra Akfta Jul2000-Jun2001 (1) 4,320,543,148

Jul2001-Jun2002 (2) 3,379,414248

Jul2002-Jun2003 (3) 4,313,309,390

Jul2003-Jun2004 (4) 4,389,018,221

Jul2004-jun2005 (5) 5,699,695,858

Jul2005-Jun2006 (6) 7,521,824,708

Jul2006-Jun2007 (7) 7,544,940,008

Actual Condition

(With AKFTA)

Forecast Result

(without AKFTA)

Pasca

AKFTA

Jul2007-Jun2008 (1) 9,531,703.903 8,073,306,221

Jul2008-Jun2009 (2) 6,672,071,257 8,764,177,577

Jul2009-Jun2010 (3) 11,081,674,716 9,455,048,933

Jul2010-Jun2011 (4) 14,227,355,334 10,145,920,289

Jul2011-Jun2012 (5) 17,661,502,047 10,836,791,645

Jul2012-Jun2013 (6) 12,026,183,705 11,527,663,001

Jul2013-Jun2014 (7) 11,152,211,264 12,218,534,357

Source: Analysis Result

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For the forecast conditions, in which the AKFTA scheme was not applied, the total

value of Indonesia’s exports in the period (1) until (7) to South Korea was US$

71,021,442,025. The growth was 91%.

So, the enactment of tariff scheme AKFTA has an impact on improving Indonesia’s

exports to South Korea more than 30% (121%-91%).

5.2 South Korea’s Export to Indonesia

Figure 5.2: Forecast Result South Korea’s Export to Indonesia without AKFTA Tariff (in US$)

Source: Analysis result

The total value of Indonesia’s imports from South Korea or South Korea’s exports to

Indonesia for 7 years after the forming of preferential tariff scheme ASEAN-Korean

FTA (the period July 2007-June 2014) was US$ 63.317.272.217. While the absence

of preferential AKFTA tariff schemes, the total value of Indonesia’s imports from

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South Korea will only reach US$ 24.891.927.742. Thus, the existence of preferential

tariff AKFTA have an impact on increasing the total value of Indonesia’s imports from

South Korea net for 7 years since the establishment of AKFTA for US$

38.425.344.475 or an average of US$ 5.489.334.925 per year.

For the actual conditions in which the AKFTA scheme applies. By comparing the

data before AKFTA period (1) until (7) with the data after AKFTA in the same period

(1) until (7) can be seen the impressive improvement. Before AKFTA was formed.

The total value of Indonesia’s imports from South Korea from period (1) until period

(7) was US$ 16.137.642.879. Meanwhile. After the establishment of AKFTA the total

value of Indonesia’s imports to South Korea was US$ 63.317.272.217. The growth

was 292%.

Table 5.2: South Korea’s Export Value to Indonesia With and Without AKFTA Tariff

PeriodTotal Import Value

(US$ 000)

Pra Akfta Jul2000-Jun2001 (1) 2,690,226,160

Jul2001-Jun2002 (2) 1,735,393,355

Jul2002-Jun2003 (3) 1,623,731,582

Jul2003-Jun2004 (4) 1,628,476,089

Jul2004-jun2005 (5) 2,330,585,026

Jul2005-Jun2006 (6) 2,550,631,762

Jul2006-Jun2007 (7) 3,578,598,905

Pasca

AKFTA

Actual Condition

(With AKFTA)

Forecast Result (without

AKFTA)

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Jul2007-Jun2008 (1) 5,065,948,416 3,020,013,053

Jul2008-Jun2009 (2) 5,587,833,925 3,198,671,928

Jul2009-Jun2010 (3) 6,120,808,775 3,377,330,803

Jul2010-Jun2011 (4) 10,062,580,318 3,555,989,677

Jul2011-Jun2012 (5) 13,116,735,140 3,734,648,552

Jul2012-Jun2013 (6) 12,010,702,537 3,913,307,427

Jul2013-Jun2014 (7) 11,352,663,106 4,091,966,302

For the forecast conditions, in which the AKFTA scheme was not applied, the total

value of Indonesia’s imports in the period (1) until (7) to South Korea was US$

24.891.927.742. The growth was 54%.

So, the enactment of tariff scheme AKFTA has an impact on improving Indonesia’s

imports from South Korea almost six times (292%/54%).

6. Conclusion and Recomendation

6.1 Conclusions

Both Indonesia and South Korea are benefited by the application of tariff scheme

AKFTA. With the preferential tariff scheme for goods, the long term benefits can be

seen from the positive trend of increased activity in the export trade relations

between the two countries.

From Indonesian perpective, according to the comparative analysis with AKFTA

conditions and simulation results without AKFTA conditions during the observation

period July 1, 2007 through June 31, 2014, it is known that the scheme AKFTA rates

have an impact on the increase in the value of Indonesia's exports to South Korea by

an average of US $ 1,618,751,457 per year. Thus AKFTA scheme provides a direct

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impact through increased export value contribution to the Indonesian national income

by an average of US $ 1.618.751.457 per year.

Note that in this study, all the factors that affect the economy are ignored. Therefore,

it can be seen when the year 2012 to the year 2013 there was a rapid decline in the

value of Indonesia’s exports to South Korea. This is due to several factors that are

not accepted in this study.

Whereas, from the South Korean perspective, the AKFTA scheme rates have an

impact on the increase in the value of South Korea's exports to Indonesia by an

average of US $ 5,489,334,925 per year. The magnitude of these numbers is a direct

result of the contribution of the value of exports to South Korea's national income.

Increased market-openness because of AKFTA tariff scheme as indicated by the

increase in the value of exports in trade relations between the two countries shows

the occurrence of trade creation and trade diversion. Based on the theory of

international trade, AFKTA has indirectly positive impact on job creation, productivity

growth, and economic welfare for AKFTA member countries, especially Indonesia

and South Korea as the objects of this study .

6.2 Recommendations

- Indonesia's policy to follow the ASEAN-Korea FTA has a positive impact on

Indonesia and South Korea. Therefore, these partnerships should be continued

and enhanced in order to provide more benefits for both countries. One of the

best ways is to form a bilateral agreement.

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- Potential growth in Indonesian exports with AKFTA tariff scheme will be even

greater if more Indonesian exporters who maximize the opportunity of AKFTA

special rates.

- For further researcher, the recommendations are to use another technique to

evaluate the impact of a FTA. Another thing is to use a more accurate forecast for

simulating and predicting the wanted data.

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Cengage Learning.

Dee, Philippa et al. 2011. “The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Jobs and Growth.”

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from http://www.kemendag.go.id/id/economic-profile/indonesia-export-import/

balance-of-trade-with-trade-partner-country?negara=114

Ministry of Trade. (2014). Economy Profile, Export Import.

http://www.kemendag.go.id/id/economic-profile/economic-indicators/indonesia-

export-import

Office Support Function. https://support.office.com/en-us/article/FORECAST-

function-8736aaa2-8a94-4358-b107-6cc0c8e90ffc?ui=en-US&rs=en-US&ad=US

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