Smallpox 04.01.03 :: W4158 Microbiology 1 Smallpox Celia Rivera Jay Mung Christopher Rinn.
The Effect of the Number of Quarantine Officers and Vaccination on Changes in Death Rate in an...
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Transcript of The Effect of the Number of Quarantine Officers and Vaccination on Changes in Death Rate in an...
The Effect of the Number of Quarantine Officers and
Vaccination onChanges in Death Rate in an
Outbreak of Smallpox
Joe Fetsch
Purpose
While smallpox has been eradicated, reserves remain in case of an outbreak to use as a
vaccine. If Variola Major was released on a population, many fatalities would result if
effective measures were not taken.If this was done on a wider scale, resources
may be spread too thin to handle the situation effectively – purpose is to quantify
this minimum amount for control of an outbreak
Explanation of Purpose
This project is intended to determine the effects of quarantine officers and immunization on the death rate of a given population of agents in
which an outbreak of Variola occurs in a closed world scenario where agents are
allowed to move randomly.
Other Projects
Several government simulations involving Smallpox taking other variables into account
have taken place, but no project has accounted for a limited supply of
vaccinations and manpowerSeveral programs have accounted for
vaccination or quarantine, but few involve both and none involve alternate supplies of
these resources
NetLogo Use
NetLogo was used to develop a basic understanding of the disease modeling system, but will not be used to create the smallpox model
NetLogo Virus Model
Smallpox
Much research was done to fully understand the Variola virus in all forms and its effects on a population
Child suffering from Smallpox
Each dot represents an Agent with a vision, intelligence, and a value describing the stage in which the disease progresses
The disease has not yet been implemented, plan is to do this 2nd and 3rd quarters
Project Structure The infection, after
Prodrome phase, will then progress into a more mature phase:
Ordinary Modified Malignant Hemorrhaging Variola Minor
Agent Movement
The agents move in a fashion that accounts for the human instinct to avoid those covered in pustules and move towards those deemed to be able to provide protection or information
Away from infected and towards officers
This still maintains an element of randomness to account for ignorance often expressed in a human population even in case of peril
Movement Cont'd
The agent movement will be affected by the quarantine officers who would direct them to safety or to an immunization site, determined by the officer as whichever has the greater value and practicality based on the location of the agents at the time.
This can be used to help realize the maximum effectivity of a limited supply of quarantine officers and vaccination on a closed population in order to reduce the death rate of the population in which the outbreak takes place.
Visual Representation
Green agents are healthy Yellow agents are in early
stage where not contagious or visible
Red agents are infected, contagious and visible
Blue agents are immune Black agents are
quarantine officers – they cannot become infected
Sugarscape-based model
Timeline
Research Smallpox to understand disease in order to better implement in program
Using NetLogo, obtained a basic understanding of the model of infection
Using Python, created basic model with agents and a 1-D vision and movement range to affect the influenced movement provided by the infected agents and quarantine officers
Changes in Plan Over time, while
developing a full realization of the scale of the project, goal has been cut from a full simulation of the United States under such an outbreak to a localized area for practical purposes
www.epa.gov
No Testing
Because of the time invested into research, project has not progressed to the point where results can be drawn or a full simulation can be run.
Man suffering from hemorrhagic smallpox also known as black pox