The Effect of Criteria Pollutant and GHG Damage Based Fees on Emissions from the US Energy System
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Transcript of The Effect of Criteria Pollutant and GHG Damage Based Fees on Emissions from the US Energy System
The Effect of Criteria Pollutant and GHG Damage Based Fees on
Emissions from the US Energy System
Kristen E. Brown*, Daven K. Henze, Jana B. MilfordUniversity of Colorado Boulder Mechanical Engineering Dept.
CMAS Conference 2014
2Photo Credits: Commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Air.pollution_1.jpg National Parks ServiceCommons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Respiratory_system.svg Drawn by Theresa Knott
Criteria Pollutant Health Damages• Fann et al. 2012– Uniform Value of Statistical Life– Krewski et al. (2009) – Laden et al. (2006)
• Muller et al. 2011– Value of Statistical Life age differentiated– Pope et al. (2002)
3Photo Credit: Drawn by Theresa Knott Commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Respiratory_system.svg
Elec
tric
Indu
stria
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Tran
spor
tatio
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Ups
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Refin
ery
Elec
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Indu
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Tran
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trea
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Refin
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Resi
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Low Fees High Fees
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0 Criteria Pollutant Fees
NOxSO2PM10PM2.5VOC
thou
sand
$/
tonn
e
Muller et al. 2011 4Fann et al. 2012
5
Climate Change Damages• Social Cost of Carbon– Interagency Working Group of the US Government
• Discount Rates– Central 2 of 4 estimates in report– 3% for low– 2.5% for high
• Applied to CH4 using GWP(100) = 28 (Myhre et al. 2013)
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 20550
20
40
60
80
100 GHG Fees
GHG LowGHG High
$(yr
200
5)/t
on C
O2
Uranium
Fossil Fuels
OilRefining & Processing
H2 Generation
Direct Electricity Generation
BiomassCombustion-BasedElectricity Generation
Nuclear Power
Gasification
Wind, Solar, Hydro
Carbon Sequestration
Industry
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Transportation
Primary Energy
Processing and Conversion of Energy Carriers End-Use Sectors
Conversion & Enrichment
6Dan Loughlin US EPA ORD 2011
MARKAL finds least cost way to meet energy demand
MARKAL
7
MARKAL updates• Results shown here use an edited version of EPAUS9R_12_v1.1• Emissions
– Upstream emissions• Better natural gas representation• Renewable technologies including biomass
– Sector specific emissions definitions– Calcination CO2 emissions from cement are included
• More industrial technologies – Solar process heat– Emissions controls (NOx, SO2, PM, CO2)– Efficiency improvements (boiler optimization)– Refinery emissions controls (SO2, PM, NOx, VOC)
• Light duty vehicle hurdle rate reduced to 18%• Coal EGU lifetime limited to 75 years from initial use
• Applicable changes made to 2012 database are currently being incorporated into 2014 release– Renewable cost projections from NREL
8
Policy Implications
• Indicate energy system changes with fees
• Economically efficient emissions levels
9
2010 Base
Base Crit Low
Crit High
GHG Low
GHG High
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Electric Power Fuel Use in 2040
CoalBiomassNatural GasWindGeothermalNuclearOtherHydropowerSolar
Exaj
oule
s of
Fue
lGHG fees lead to en-
ergy use changes
102010 Base
Base Crit Low
Crit High
GHG Low
GHG High
0
5
10
15
20
25
Industrial Fuel Use in 2040
ElectricityCoalCokeBiomassMet. CoalNatural GasPetcokeOilSolar HeatLPG
Exaj
oule
s of
Fue
lHigh Criteria
Pollutant fees lead to industrial
efficiency improvements
11
NOx SO2 PM NOx SO2 PM NOx SO2 NOx SO2Crit Low Crit High Crit Low Crit High
Boiler Process Heat
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Industrial Control Technologies
Low Mid High FGD LNB LNB+SNCRESP total
PJ o
f fue
l con
trol
led
Criteria pollutant fees lead to more control devices.
122010 BaseBase
Crit Lo
w
Crit H
igh
GHG Low
GHG High
01234567
GHG Emissions in 2040
UpstreamElectricIndustrialRefineryTransportationResidentialCommercial
Gt C
O2e
Criteria pollutant fees have little effect on GHG
emissions.
132010 BaseBase
Crit Lo
w
Crit H
igh
GHG Low
GHG High
0123456789
2040 SO2 Emissions
UpstreamElectricIndustrialRefineryTransportationResidentialCommercial
Mt S
O2
GHG fees reduce GHG and criteria
pollutants.
14
2010 Base
Base Crit Low
Crit High
GHG Low
GHG High
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
142040 NOx Emissions
Upstream
Electric
Industrial
Refinery
Transportation
Residential
Commercial
Mt N
Ox
Climate policy is needed to reduce
GHGs, but will have AQ co-
benefits
15
Considerations• Damages fixed in space and time• Fann et al. 2012 vs. Muller et al. 2011
– Fann et al. has much larger effect on industrial technologies• GHG high vs. low
– Values closer than for criteria pol. cases• High is approx. 1.4x low ($/ton)
– Additional reduction in electric coal with high fees
Fann Mullerfee/damages 10 1indust emis 63% 7%elc emis 84% 22%fee/damages 15 1indust emis 47% 25%elc emis 87% 64%
NOx
SO2
% reduction from BAU
16
Thanks to:
• Greg Frost• Shelly Miller• Mike Hannigan• EPA for the EPA US 9-
region MARKAL database
• Dan Loughlin • Nick Flores• Garvin Heath• NASA for funding• You for your
attention
17
References• Brown K.E., Henze D.K., Milford J.B., (2013): Accounting for
Climate and Air Quality Damages in Future U.S. Electricity Generation Scenarios. Environmental Science & Technology 47, pp. 3065–3072.
• Fann N., Lamson A.D., Anenberg S.C., Wesson K., Risley D., Hubbell B.J., (2012): Estimating the National Public Health Burden Associated with Exposure to Ambient PM2.5 and Ozone. Risk Analysis 32, pp. 81–95.
• Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon. (2013): Technical Support Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866.
• Muller N.Z., Mendelsohn R., Nordhaus W., (2011): Environmental accounting for pollution in the United States economy. American Economic Review, 101(5), pp. 1649–1675.