The EcoSenseWeb integrated model First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark
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Transcript of The EcoSenseWeb integrated model First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
The EcoSenseWeb integrated model
First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark
Volker KlotzIER Universität Stuttgart
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Outline
1. The Impact Pathway Approach: basic principle of EcoSenseWeb2. The EcoSense Model3. Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling
i. Regional scale (European scale) modellingii. Local scale modellingiii. Hemispheric scale modelling
4. Additional impacts, additional EcoSenseWeb-Modules5. Results
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1Differences of Physical
Impacts
Transport andChemical
Transformation
Pollutant / Noise Emission
Calculation is made twice: with and
without project!
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Background Concentration of PPM2.5 [µg/m3]
Additional Emission of 1000 t PPM2.5 in
Egypt
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Delta Conc. of PPM2.5 [µg/m3] – 1000 t in Egypt
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Quantification of Impacts and Costs
relation between pressure and impact
Concentration Response Function (CRF):
Example: Additional Years of Life Lost
= 6.5 · 10-5 · PPM2.5 · Population
Number of additional Years of Life Lost [YOLL]
in Egypt due to 1000 ton emission of PPM2.5 = 748
in the Northern Hemisphere = 53
in Western Europe < 0.5
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
YOLL Years of Life Lost due to 1000 t PPM2.5
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Impact Pathway ApproachDifferences of Physical
Impacts
Transport andChemical
Transformation
MonetaryValuation
Pollutant/Noise Emission
Calculation is made twice: with and
without project!
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Quantification of Impacts and Costs
Exposure Response Function:
Additional Years of Life Lost
= 6.5 · 10-5 · Sulfate · Population
Quantified number of additional Years of Life Lost due
to one year operation : 748 YOLL
Monetary value
40,000 Euro2005 per Year of Life Lost
748 YOLL x 40000 €/YOLL = Damage costs per year:
29.2 Million Euro2005
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Outline EcoSense
● EcoSense is designed for carrying out impact assessmentsi. with a consistent standard (ExternE Impact Pathway approach - CRF,
monetary values)ii. with little data requirements (dispersion models, meteorology, receptor
data)iii. for all European countries
(incl. extension).
● Calculations can be performed on three spatial scales:i. Local scaleii. Regional scaleiii. North hemispheric scale
● Only the emission data of the source is needed to perform calculations
Coverage of EcoSenseWeb
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Regional atmospheric dispersion modelling
● Regional modelling with a parameterized EMEP/MSC-West Eulerian dispersion model from MET.NO Source-Receptor (SR)-matrices for EU25 SR-matrix: concentration increment in each grid cell per unit of emission
● Intention: estimation of impacts and damages on European scale
● More appropriate dispersion models for country scale may exist but EcoSense is designed to make calculations for all European countries.
● Ongoing improvement: Coupling of the Eulerian dispersion modell Polyphemus with EcoSenseWeb detailed calculations feasable.
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Example regional model: Delta concentraion of Sulfate due to the emission of 1 t SO2 in South-Germany
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Local atmospheric dispersion modelling
Example ISC ST (Gaussian) model results for:● Athens area● Stack height: 50m● Stack Temp: 332 °K● Emission rate: 2.5g/s● Exit velocity: 1.7m/s● Stack diameter: 2m
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PLO T FILE O F H IG H 2N D H IG H 3-HR VALUES
ISCST Model Application for Athens, 1997
SO2ì g/m3
m etres
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SO2 annual averageIntention: estimation of impacts and damages close to the emission source
(50 km around the source)
Local meteorology needed to perform ISC ST EcoSenseWeb includes a meteorological data generator
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Local Modelling: Meteorological data generator
● Calculates for a selected point in Europe the specific meteorological data
● Input for the local ISC-ST model
Example: Athens
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Northern hemispheric atmospheric dispersion model
sec. particles (ug/m3)
Example: Conc. increment due to NOx Emission in N.AmericaIntention: rough estimation of
impacts and damages in the northern hemisphere
Hemispheric modelling with EMEP/MSC-West Eulerian dispersion model from MET.NO Source-Receptor (SR)-matrices for Emissions in Europe, North America, Far East, Middle East, and Russia.
SR-Matrices for Emissions in North African countries.
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Further impacts considered in EcoSenseWeb
● Loss of biodiversityi. due to landuse changeii. due to acidification and eutrophication
● Assessment of external costs of GHG emissionsi. Marginal damage costsii. Marginal abatement costs
● Assessment of external costs due to radio nuclide emissions
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Aggregated results per SO2 & PPM2.5 – all sectors; 2010; average meteorology
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AL
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BG BA
TN BY
UA
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K SI
HU IT CY
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EU
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CZ
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BE
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[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
All Secors - (also seperately for high or low releases available), NEEDS Core CRF[External costs Euro per ton]
HH Eu27 average 2010
HH Eu27 average 2020
HH 2010 min Eu
HH 2010 max Eu
BioDiv Eu27 average 2010
BioDiv Eu27 average 2020
HH Emission from Eu - ext. costs in the Northern Hemisphre outside Eu
NH3 6,923 4,259 1,316 15,963 3,266 3,295 2NMVOC 496 223 -261 1,274 -67 -48 259NOX 4,220 5,061 699 10,840 903 868 98PPMco 1,439 1,500 179 3,035 0 0 2PPM25 17,948 17,787 4,155 34,502 0 0 116SO2 4,315 4,591 1,479 7,638 177 170 205
Aggregated results - comparison
HH ... Human health
BioDiv ... Damages on biodiversity due to acidification and eutrophication
2010, 2020 ... Different reference emission scenarios
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Contact / Links:
● Methodology: http:\\www.ExternE.info● EcoSenseWeb: http:\\ecosenseweb.ier.uni-stuttgart.de● Contact person: [email protected]
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Impacts included (I)
Impact Cat. Pollutant / Burden Effects Human Health mortality
PM25, PM10 SO2, O3
Reduction in life expectancy due to short and long time exposure cidents
Human Health
PM25, PM10, O3, SO2 Respiratory hospital admissions
morbidity PM25, PM10, O3 Restricted activity days PM25, PM10, CO Congestive heart failure Benzene, BaP, 1,3-
butad.,radioact. Cancer risk (non-fatal)
PM25, PM10 Cerebrovascular hospital admissions, cases of chronic bronchitis, cases of chronic cough in children, cough in asthmatics, lower respiratory symptoms
O3 Asthma attacks, symptom days Mercury Loss of IQ of children
[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model
Impacts included (II)
Impact Category
Pollutant / Burden Effects
Building Material
SO2, Acid deposition
Combustion particles
Ageing of galvanised steel, limestone, mortar, sand-stone, paint, rendering, and zinc for utilitarian buildings
Soiling of buildings
Crops SO2 Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, sugar beet
O3 Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, rice, tobacco, sunflower seed
Acid deposition Increased need for liming
N, S Fertilising effects
Global Warming
CO2, CH4, N2O World-wide effects on mortality, morbidity, coastal impacts, agriculture, energy demand, and economic impacts due to temperature change and sea level rise
Ecosystems SO2, NOx, NH3 Eutrophication, Acidification
Land Use Change
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