R e p o r t N o. T.A.7

CIRCULATING COPY CO/9 F/.P IC TJ_F-L--TO BE RETURNED TO ARCHIVES DIVISION

This report is not to be published nor may itbe quoted as representing the Bank's views.

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

THE ECONOMY OF TANGANYIKA

(Preliminary Memorandum for the IBRD Survey Mission)

May 14, 1958

Prepared By:Walter A. ChudsonJ.P. Hayes

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CONTENTS

Page

Basic StatisticsMaps and Charts

Chapter I - General Description of Tanganyika............... 1

Geography, Climate and Natural Resources............ 1The Pepe........................ ... 4Government ............................ **0.0.00600009 6

Chapter II - The Economy - Structure and Growth ............. 10

Historical ................ C.. 60 .. .. .09 10National Product and Its Composition................ 12Capital FormationO.. ...0. .. . ... ... ........ ..... 0 014External Trade and Payments ......................... 15Agriculturec .......... 20Transport... . ... . ...... .. ... 30Mining ..... 32Manufacturing ... .... 34Monetary and Financial Institutions...... ............ 35a

Chapter III - Development Plans and Their Financing....,.... 36

The Territorial Budget.... ......................... . 36The Capital Budget................................. 38Official Development Plans .......................... 39Ten-Year Development Plan, 1940-65.................. 40

Appendix I - Capital Requirements Program, 1955-65

BibliographyStatistical Tables

BASIC STATISTICS

Area

Land area (excluding major lakes) 341,150 sq. miles

Population

Total (1957 census) 8,785,600

African 8,662,700European 20 ,500Indian and Pakistani 71,700Arab 19,100Other 11,600

Average annual rate of growth, 1948-1957 1.6%

Average new permanent European immigration, 2,700 per annum1955-1957

African employees (1957) 430,000As percentage of adult population 9%

Geographical Product (monetary economy) 1957 f92.3 million

Shares of sectors in total product (per cent)Agriculture 49Livestock 11Mining 3.5Manufacturing 3.5

Average annual growth of real product, 1954 to 1957 - 2.0%

Gross fixed capital expenditure (monetary economy) £22.2 million

External Trade, average 1956 & 1957.

Exports (f,o.b.) f 45.7 millionof which: to Kenya and Uganda 22.1 million

Imports (c.i.f.) £ 44.6 millionof which: from Kenya and Uganda £7.0 million

Leading exports:Quantity Value Per cent of total

Sisal 183,700 tons l10.2 million 24.1Coffee 19,800 tons f 8.2 million 19.4Cotton 27,600 tons f 7.0 million 16.7Diamonds 365,400 carats 13.17million 7.2

67*4

Destination of exports, 1956:

Sterling area 55%Western Europe (non-sterling) 30%United States and Canada 9%Other countries 7%

Unit value of exports (1950 = 100)

1948 741952 1361957 92

Public Finance (1958/59 budget estimate of The Central Government,fiscal year ending 30 June)

Total Current Revenue2/ £19.8 million

of which:Taxes on income £6.1 millionTaxes on expenditure(including importduties) M10.0 million

Total Current Expenditure £21.0 million

Expenditure on Development Plan (capital budget) f 6.0 million

Capital budget: sources of funds

Loans and territorial sources f4.5 millionU.K. and other foreign grants fl.5 million

Functional division of combined current and capital budgets

Total £27.0 millionof which:

Economic services £8.5 millionSocial services £8.1 millionAdmi-nistration, law

and order £6.5 millionGeneral expenditure £3.9 million

Public debt (30 April,-1958) f16.3 million

I/ Includes some small U.K. grants for current purposes.

Money and Banking 1957

Currency in circulation fl9.0 millionDemand deposits of commercial banks £13.8 millionTanganyika savings banks

Number of depositors 99,600Credit balances f 2.4 million

Prices

Cost of living (excluding rent) - Dar es Salaam, Dec. 1958(1950 = 100) 143

Retail price index of African consumers goods - Dar esSalaam, Dec. 1958 (1951 = 100) 125

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CHAPTER I. GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF TANGANYIKA

GEOGRAPHY, CLIMATE AND NATURAL RESOURCES

1. Tanganyika lies just south of the Equator between the Great Lakes(Lakes Victoria, Tanganyika and Nyasa) and the Indian Ocean. With a land

area of 341,800 square miles, it is the largest of the three units compris-ing British East Africa, the other two being Kenya and Uganda. Stretchingabout 725 miles from north to south and 660 miles from east to west, it

covers an area equivalent to pre-war Germany, France and Belgium, or roughlythe same as Nigeria. It takes two days and two nights to travel by train

from Dar es Salaam to Mwanza on Lake Victoria or to Kigoma on Lake Tanganyika.The size of the area, together with the fact that the portions suitable foragricultural and possibly mineral development are scattered and remote fromthe coast, means that communications inevitably play a major part in thedevelopment of the territory.

2. With the exception of a narrow belt along the 550-mile coast (whichis reasonably well equipped with harbors), the country consists largely ofa gently undulating plain with an altitude of about 4,000 feet. In thenorth Mount Kilimanjaro, with a permanent ice cap, rises to over 19,000feet, and a belt of high land runs southeast from the Usambara mountainsin the northeast corner of the country to the Southern Highlands aroundthe tip of Lake Nyasa.

3. Three climatic zones can be distinguished, though very considerablelocal variations are to be found:

(i) The warm and humid coast region.

(ii) The hot and dry zone of the central plateau ataltitudes up to 5,000 feet.

(iii) The semi-temperate regions of high rainfall aroundthe slopes of the mountains Kilimanjaro and Meruand some other highlands elsewhere.

In the central plateau, which comprises more than half of the territory,the main climatic feature is the long dry spell from May to October, fol-

lowed by a period of low rainfall which is often concentrated into rela-

tively few days of heavy showers. Furthermore, the rainfall in this regionis markedly irregular from year to year; in much of the area the chances ofreceiving more than 20 inches of rainfall are poor. Bushlandand wooded grassland (savanna) are the predominant types of vegetation. The

land so covered is sparsely inhabited, not only because of the lack of waterbut because much of it is infested by the tsetse fly. On the coast theannual average rainfall is higher, ranging about 45 inches, but here alsothere is a long dry season; the main rainy season is from March to May but

there is a second season from October to December. Around Lake Victoria

in the northwest rainfall is well distributed throughout the year but there

is a peak during March to May.

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4. Roughly 30,000 square miles, less than a tenth of the total area,is classified as "agricultural country," consisting of land now cultivatedor land formerly cultivated but abandoned under the traditional practiceof shifting cultivation with a long periodic fallow. Only an estimated3% of the land is usbd. for arable and tree crops. About 80% or more isconsidered to have potentialities only for forestry and range livestockproduction, subject to effective control of tsetse infestation. Most of

the present agricultural cash crop production and population are concen-trated in a few areas of higher rainfall and better soils in the periph-eral areas of Tanganyika (the southern highlands and the northern coffee-sisal areas around Mount Kilimanjaro and Mount Meru and the cotton andcoffee areas around Lake Victoria in the west).Regional distribution of the main types of vegetation is shown in Table 1 1/.

5. The country, though appearing well watered on the map, has in factfew permanent rivers of any size, reflecting the fact that the rainy seasonas a rule extends over less than half the year. Several of the permanent

rivers flowing into the Indian Ocean are, however, of actual or potentialimportance in connection with water development and potential generationof electricity. The most important of these is the Rufiji, with its manytributaries from the south and center of the country. The Rufiji River

Basin, covering an area of about 68,500 square miles - 20% of the country -

is considered the only large potential area for long-term agricultural,power and irrigation development.

6. The influence of these environmental conditions on agriculturalactivity has been well summarized in a recent report by the F.A.O. in thefollowing terms 2/:

"Tanganyika is a large country .... Yet it has only8 million inhabitants. There is, therefore, on the faceof it plenty of room for people to live. It is not likeIndia, China, Italy or Israel, a country where demographicpressure makes the question of development extremely urgent.Nevertheless, the population is rapidly increasing, andthere are certain reasons which make the use of land dif-ficult. Among the first of these is the unreliability of

rainfall. About a third of the territory, the centre, isonly suitable for pasturage. Reliable rainfall is con-fined mainly to the periphery, to a large area in the South

and West, to the district round Lake Victoria in the North,and to a few mountain masses which rise in isolated out-crops from the dry plains at their feet. The remainingextensive areas are marginal.

Tables with Arabic numerals are contained in the Appendix.2/ Report to the United Nations Trustees hip Council aubmitted by the Food and

Agriculture Organization concerning land tenure and land use problemsin the Trust Territories of Tanganyika and Ruanda-Urundi. DocumentT/1438, 19 February 1959.

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"Two other factors eliminate very large areas of landfrom entry by people with only primitive resources. Aboutsixty percent of the country has no easily obtainable water,and a similar vast area, mainly in the South and West, isinfested with tsetse fly, which make the running of stockimpossible and in places bring a danger of human sleepingsickness. The absence of roads, the presence of wild ani-mals and the prevalence of malaria and other diseases areadditional discouragements,

"These natural circumstances have determined the dis-tribution of the human population. The people are concen-trated mainly in the well-watered areas on the isolatedmountain masses in the North, or near the shores of LakeVictoria, or in the higher rainfall areas in the far Westand the far South, or along the coast.

"History has added to this marked pattern of localisolation. Prior to the German occupation at the end ofthe nineteenth century, considerable migrations of pasto-ralists, Hamites originating from Nilotic regions fartherNorth and different from the Bantu inhabitants, invadedthe central pastoral area. The most famous of these werethe celebrated warrior tribe, the Masai, who terrorizedthose around them and kept them closely confined. TheZulu Angoni played a similar part in the South of thecountry, and on top of a pattern of considerable inter-tribal friction must be placed the slave trade emanatingfrom Arab settlements along the coast.

"This combination of natural and historical circum-stances has produced an extremely uneven distribution ofhuman occupation and great variation in the degree ofdevelopment, leaving as a major feature of today's scenea strong sense of local particularism. It has producedalso a centrifugal pattern, the North-west having muchin common with Uganda, the North-east with Kenya, andthe South and West with Nyasaland and Rhodesia, whilstthe coastal strip and the pastoral centre remain entitiesof their own. These peripheral alignments and the greatdistances which separate these regions have made a senseof cohesion in one country a remote concept in mostpeople's minds until very recent political movements havebrought it to the fore."

Minerals

7. Mineral production has thus far played little part in Tanganyika'seconomy, though recently its importance has been growing mainly throughthe development of diamond mining. The mineral potentialities of thecountry have as yet been but little explored. Only slightly more thanone-tenth of the country is considered to be covered by good geological

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maps, but an intensive program of geological surveying is being pursuedby the government and certain private explorations are proceeding. Thearea to the east of Lake Tanganyika is known to be highly mineralizedand is now being closely examined.

THE PEOPLE

8. According to the census taken in 1957, the African population isestimated at 8,663,000. Of the relatively small non-African population,totaling 123,500, Indians and Pakistanis account for 72,000, Arabs 19,000and Europeans 20,500, of whom about 3,000 are considered to be permanentlysettled in the country (see Table 2). Between 1948 and 1957 the Africanpopulation is estimated to have grown at the annual rate of about 1.8%,which is below the estimated rate for Africa as a whole. In a number ofthe more densely populated areas, however, the African population is grow-ing more rapidly than the average, and the Asian population-is growingeven faster (3% per annum). The African crude birth rate is high and theprospect is for an increase in the rate of population growth as deathrates decline with improved health and other facilities.

9. The great variation in population density within the area is indi-cated by the fact that in several provinces (Tanga, Northern and SouthernHighlands) density exceeds 450 persons per square mile, whereas the averagefor the whole territory is 26 per square mile (see Table 2). Apart fromDar es Salaam with a population of 129,000 there are only nine towns withpopulations exceeding 10,000 (see Table 3).

10. Only about 430,000 of the African population are engaged in full-time or part-time employment for wages, about 135,000 being employed onsisal plantations. Industrial distribution of African employees is shownin Table 4 and their occupational status in Table 5. The remainder ofthe Africans is largely engaged in subsistence production of crops andlivestock and to a limited extent in the production of cash crops, oftenas a marginal activity. The major exception is the Chagga Tribe on MountKilimanjaro, which is one of the most prosperous African groups in theterritory owing to its successful development of profitable coffee produc-tion, largely on a cooperative basis.

11. The bulk of the African population lives under tribal conditions,with 127 separate tribal groups being recognized. The largest tribe, theSukuma, numbers only about one million, one-eighth of the population,while the next 12 tribes represent another 40%. Special mention may bemade of the Masai, a semi-nomadic tribe of pastoralists of Nilotic origin,which while numbering less than 100,000 in Tanganyika inhabits a largearea in the northern part of the territory. Tribal divisions are geo-graphically well defined, a fact which is of significance in relation toproblems of land tenure. A certain measure of "detribalization" is inprogress, and substantial African migration to the towns, particularlyto Dar es Salaam, has raised a number of administrative and social prob-lems.

12. Ethnically most of the African population belongs to the Bantugroup but linguistic differences are considerable. Swahili, the languageof the coastal people, is understood in most parts of the territory and

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is a useful lingua franca, although regarded as ill-adapted for technicalpurposes or for the expression of abstract ideas. Until 1956 Swahili wasused throughout the primary and middle schools and to some extent insecondary schools as the language of instruction; steps are now beingtaken to substitute English as the general language of instruction, butprogress is hampered by the fact that few African primary school teachersknow English.

Education

13. The question of educational advancement is a major issue in theterritory in relation to its prospective political evolution as well asto the promotion of economic development. In the whole country in 1958there were 9 African doctors, 2 lawyers, no African engineers and noAfricans in a managerial capacity in any large-scale private business.Less than 20% of the school age population is enrolled in primary, secon-dary and technical schools (a proportion which applies to a number ofother African countries, including the Sudan, Ethiopia, and most ofFrench Equatorial and West Africa, but is lower than in Kenya and Uganda).Of an estimated 850,000 African children of primary school age, some367,000 are at present attending Primary Schools. The number of Africanchildren of middle school age is also about 850,000. Of these, some35,000 are attending Middle School. If provision were to be made for15% of the 850,000 children of middle school age to proceed to proceedto secondary schools, 122,200 additional secondary school places wouldhave to be provided.

14. The expansion of educational facilities poses a major budgetaryproblem, quite apart from such technical problems as teacher-training,the relative emphasis to be given to the expansion of primary, secondaryand post-secondary education, etc. Combined current and capital expendi-ture on education has risen from £1.8 million in 1952 to £5.3 million in1958/59, and now absorbs about one-fifth of the budget. The implicationsof large-scale expansion of education facilities are astronomical andperhaps somewhat beside the point. Tanganyikats representative recentlyinformed the United Nations Trusteeship Council that providing primaryand middle school places for all African children, together with secon-dary schools for 15% of those leaving middle school and the correspond-ing training of additional teachers would cost £40 million in capitaland £46 million in recurrent annual expenditure, as compared with thetotal current budget of £20 million. At the same time he noted that inspite of the fact that less than half of the African children of primaryschool age and less than 5% of the children of middle school age areattending school, over 100,000 places are unfilled in primary schoolsand 5,000 in middle schools.

15. Since the end of the war considerable progress has been made inhigher education and teacher-training, although the numbers are stillsmall. In 1958/59 there were 218 students from Tanganyika at MakerereCollege in Uganda, the University College of East Africa, and there wereadditional places which could have been filled if suitably qualified

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candidates had been forthcoming. There were also 200 students fromTanganyika taking higher education courses outside East Africa and 33students at the Royal Technical College, Nairobi. There were 1,769teachers in training in Tanganyika and a number of special technicaland vocational training institutions operated in the Territory, notablythe Dar es Salaam Technical Institute, the Moshi College of Commerce,the National Resources School and various other trade schools. A spe-cial Working Party on Higher Education which was sent to British EastAfrica by the United Kingdom Government in 1958 has recommended theestablishment in Tanganyika of a University College comparable toMakerere College and a site has been selected.

Health

16. The provision of public health facilities poses financial andtechnical issues similar to those in education. The government's devel-opment plans contain substantial provision for public health facilitiesand actual expenditures (current and capital) in this field have risenfrom £1.1 million in 1952 to £2.4 million in 1958/59. The number ofhospital beds increased by 45% between 1949 and 1956. Considerableprogress has also been made in the training of African medical personnel,mostly medical assistants and aides. Nineteen medical students fromTanganyika were in training at Makerere College in 1957. Numerous dis-pensaries have been established in rural areas, with emphasis on preven-tive medicine. The incidence of malaria, yaws and venereal diseases ishigh, and tuberculosis is regarded as a serious and growing problem. Thegradual growth of irrigation facilities is also reported to be increasingthe prevalence of bilharzia. According to a nutritional appraisal by theWorld Health Organization over-all calorie intake is generally adequate,but there is widespread protein deficiency of greater or lesser extent,particularly in children, due partly to ignorance.

GOVERNMENT

Central Government

17. Prior to the First World War Tanganyika was the main part of acolony under German administration, known as German East Africa andincluding what is now Ruanda-Urundi. It came under German administra-tion in 1891 when, following an agreement between Great Britain andGermany adjusting their disputes regarding spheres of interest in manyparts of East, West and South-west Africa, the German Government tookover control from the German East Africa Company. Tanganyika was occu-pied by the British following a military campaign during the First WorldWar, and in 1920 the peace treaty with Germany provided for its adminis-tration by the United Kingdom under Iandate from the League of Nations.In 1946 Tanganyika became a U. N. Trust Territory under British adminid stia

18. The territory is administered under the British Colonial Officeby a Governor appointed by the United Kingdom. Territorial legislationis enacted by the Governor with the advice and consent of a Legislative

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Council which has full legislative and budgetary competence. The compo-sition of the Legislative Council, which consists of nominated, ex officioand elected members, has undergone several changes in the course of thetrusteeship, moving gradually in the direction of greater African partici-pation, in pursuance of the general principles of the Trusteeship Agree-ment. Under the present Constitution, introduced in 1955, the LegislativeCouncil consists of 34 members appointed by the Governor (including exofficio members) and 33 elected members. The representative side is com-posed of equal numbers of Africans, Asians and Europeans (one of each raceappointed to represent each political division and one of each race repre-senting such interests as the Governor may see fit). This system replacedan arrangement under which the representative side consisted of sevenEuropeans, four Africans and three Asians. The formula of racial parityfor elected members is accompanied by an electoral law which, in additionto providing for a common roll with a qualitative franchise, provides thateach voter is required to vote for three candidates, one of each race(except where the seat is uncontested), In the first territory-wide elec-tions held in 1958 and early 1959 under the existing Constitution, thetotal number of registered voters of all races was only 58,000. All thesuccessful non-African candidates who were opposed in the first electionsheld in September 1958 were formally su.ported by the Tanganyika AfricanNational Union, the dominant African political party, which has no seriouscompetitors at present.

19. The question of further constitutional development is a major issuein the political life of the territory. No definite timetable has beenestablished for the further constitutional development of Tanganyika, butduring 1959 a committee of the Legislative Council is to consider possiblefurther constitutional development, and its terms of reference will includea review of the parity system as well as the broadening of the franchise.The United Nations Trusteeship Council in its most recent report on theterritory (A/3822, 1958) stated:

"...The Administration has described as its eventual aim theestablishment of a multi-racial society possessing multi-racial, or in effect, non-racial institutions of government.At the present stage of the evolution of the Territory, how-ever, the constitutional structure reflects a special impor-tance attached by the Administering Authority to the non-African groups in terms not of their numbers but of theircontribution to economic and other development...The concernof the Trusteeship Council has been that this system ofseparate representation should be regarded by the Adminis-tering Authority as merely a transitional phase in the Ter-ritory's evolution towards an integral society in whichAfricans would play their due part."

An address by the Governor at the October 1958 meeting of the LegislativeCouncil included the following statement:

"In terms of population the Africans are and always willbe an overwhelming majority in Tanganyika and, as the countryprogresses, it is right and proper, as indeed it is natural

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and inevitable, that African participation both in thelegislature and in the executive should steadily increase.It is not intended, and never has been intended, thatparity should be a permanent feature of the Tanganyikascene. On the other hand, it is intended, and alwayshas been intended, that the fact that when self-governmentis eventually attained both the Legislature and the Govern-ment are likely to be predominantly African should in noway affect the security of the rights and interests ofthose minority communities who have made their homes inTanganyika. I am glad to note that the responsible leadersof major political parties in the Territory are in completeagreement on this important matter; and that there is there-fore a good prospect that in due course there will exist inTanganyika a government to which Her Majesty's Governmentwill be able to devolve their trust as being a governmentunder which responsible people of all races would feelsecure."

In response to this statement, Mr. Julius Nyerere, President of the Tan-ganyika Africa National Union (TANU) made a statement in the Council asChairman of the newly formed Tanganyika Elected Members Organizationwhich contained the following:

"This statement we have-been waiting for for a longtime because it has implications, because once you havemade this statement you remove the fears of the Africans;you throw a responsibility to them, and it is importantthat the Africans should feel that responsibility andtake the necessary responsible attitude that is expectedof them and which cannot be expected-of them unless theposition is made clear by the Government of the country... I recommend this statement to all sections of the com-munity in this country. It means a great deal for ourfuture."

A further step in constitutional development was taken recently when theGovernor appointed several elected members, including three Africans, tofull Ministerial rank in the Cabinet.

East African High Commission

20. The governments of the three territories of British East Africaare entirely separate, but they all participate in the East African HighCommission, established in 1948, which is a body designed to coordinateand centralize certain activities which pertain to all three territories.The Commission provides certain universal administrative services for thethree territories, including railways and harbor facilities, post andtelecommunications, agricultural and forestry research, industrialreseaich, statiatics, and the administration of the customs and excisesystem (common to the three territories) and the income tax.- The

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expenditures of the High Commission (excluding the self-contained opera-tions of the railways and harbors administration and the posts and tele-communications system) have been rising steadily and in 1957 amountedto approximately £5 million, the cost being shared among the three ter-ritories and the United Kingdom.

Local Administration

21. For administrative purposes the territory is divided into 8 prov-inces which are in turn divided into districts under the supervision ofan appointed District Commissioner. The principal organ of local govern-ment throughout most of the rural areas is the native authority consist-ing of chiefs with, in many cases, elected councils; in urban areas it isthe multi-racial town or municipal council. The development of modernlocal government has thus far been limited and the policy of indirect rule(through African tribal or native authority) continues to dominate. Inthe case of urban areas, progress has been made with the establishment of9 town councils by 1957 and a tenth was to be established in July 1958.In the rural areas where only one County Council has been set up, progresshas been slower.

22. There are at present 390 native authorities, combined for financialpurposes into 56 native treasuries; during l9g8 these collected revenuestotaling over £2,000,000, The control and direction of the native author-ities lies in the influence of the provincial commissioners who delegatemuch of their responsibility to the district commissioners. The provincialcommissioners regulate native authorities subject to the Central Governmentand have a voice in more important issues. They approve the native treas-ury estimates and are responsible for the appropriate functioning of thelocal courts and other essential services. They or the district commis-sioners normally supply most of the initiative on which much of the legis-lative action of the native authorities is based.

Civil Service

23. The day-to-day conduct of Government is carried out by a non-racialCivil Service consisting of some 2,800 Europeans, 1,500 Asians and approxi-mately 23,000 Africans, many of whom are in subordinate positions thoughevery effort is made to fit them for greater responsibility as and whenpossible. There were expected to be at the end of 1958 6 or 7 Africandistrict officers and, subject to budgetary provisions, 46 African assis-tant district officers. A substantial effort is being made to trainAfricans for the Civil Service. Training facilities have been substan-tially increased recently and a government scholarship fund has beenestablished, the resources of which are such that at present the numberof scholarships is linited only by the number of students qualified toproceed with higher education. The number of government employees inpre-service and in-service training was expected to increase from 2,800in 1957 to about 4,000 in 1958.

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CHAPTER II. TEE ECONUMlY - STRUCTJRE AND GROWTH

HISTORICAL

1. The modern economic history of Tanganyika dates back to 1884 whenthe German, Karl Peters, founded the UJnion for German Colonization.Before that date, the principal exports of the territory were ivory andslaves. In the thirty years preceding the outbreak of the first WgorldWar the Germans devoted much money and energy to the development of plan-tation agriculture, introducing not only sisal, but also coffee, tea,cotton, rubber and cinchona, and experimenting with many other crops.They built two railways, one from Tanga to Moshi in the north and theother from Dar es Salaam to Kigoma in the center of the territory.

2. During the first world war, the course of events in Tanganyikawas interrupted by fighting. In 1919 a mandate was given to the UnitedKingdom to administer the terri$.ry. The history of the subsequent yearshas been summarized as follows:v

...1920-1924 was a necessary period of consolidation afterthe disruptions of the war. Then in 1925-1929 there was aperiod of rapid expansion, reflected not only in expansionof the budget, but also in optimistic, sometimes over-optimistic, private investment. By the Autumn of 1930 thecold winds of the depression were starting to blow in Tan-ganyika, and it was not until 1934 that the country's baro-meter started again to rise. From 1935 to 1939 Tanganyikaexperienced a period of great uncertainty, during which inspite of public assurances given both locaLly and in theUnited Kingdom, the impression was abroad that the territorywas being used as a political pawn, wTith the result thatpublic and private investment were both hesitant.

"...before the outbreak of war, and in part as a substantial gesture ofofficial confidence in the future of the territory, a Development Plan...wa s7 initiated..." (ibid). Execution of the plan was, however, prevented

by the war.

3. In spite of difficulties, efforts were made between the wars toincrease African production of cash crops. In the 'twenties, these ef-forts were concentrated on the encouragement of cotton growing, parti-cularly in the Lake Victoria Basinand the eastern districts of the ter-ritory. At the same time the Chagga rapidly increased their numbers ofArabica coffee trees, and the crop of Robusta in the Bukoba districtincreased. During the depression, the policy was to encourage a larger

lJ J. P. Moffett, Handbook of Tanganyika (Second Edition, 1958) p. 89.

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volume of production of export crops in order to offset the fal1 in price.

4. The first gold mine in the territory, the Sekenke Mine, began pro-duction in 1909. Other gold discoveries were made under the Germans. Inthe 'twenties alluvial gold was found, and also diamonds. In subsequentyears there was a steady expansion of gold mining. Diamond productionfell off to a very low figure until Williamson's discovery of the Mwaduidiamond field in 1940. In 1938 the deposit subsequently worked by theMpanda Lead Mine was discovered.

5. The mileage of roads "passable to light motor traffic in the dryseason" increased from 2,650 in 1921 to nearly 12,000 in 1938. The lat-ter figure, however, included some 4,000 miles of roads maintained bynative authorities, generally to a poor standard, and passable only indry weather. The second World 'Aar, which held up most forms of develop-ment, gave some impetus to the construction of roads considered to be ofstrategic importance. Railway building between the wars was limited.A new line was built from Tabora to Miwanza on Lake Victoria, a distanceof 237 miles. The extension of the Tanga line from Moshi to Arusha (54miles) was completed in 1929. A branch line from 'Nianyoni on the CentralLine to Kinyangiri (93 miles), opened in 1934, was an economic failure,and after the second World War the track was torn up and used for thenew line to Mpanda.

6. From 1925 the administration set to work to introduce "indirectrule" on the Nigerian pattern, thus undoing the German system, which inplaces went as far as the replacement of the chiefs by Arabs or othersof alien origin. The British revived the authority of the chiefs, andencouraged the establishment of native treasuries and native courts inwhich the local customary law was administered.

7. The pace of economic advance was considerably accelerated in theyears following the second World War. Between 1948 and 1952, Tangan-yika's exports increased in volume at an average rate of 17% p.a. Formost products, pre-war export quantities were rapidly exceeded, and cer-tain new crops began to make an appreciable contribution to export earn-ings. Since 1952, Tanganyika has maintained the level of its exportearnings rather well, further increases of quantities offsetting thefall in prices from their Korean levels. However, the expansionof export volume has been slower and more irregular than in earlieryears. The continued development of the economy has come to rely moreheavily on public efforts as the stimulus of lively export demand hasdecreased.

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NATIONAL FRODUCT AND ITS COMPOSITION

Monetary economy and subsistence sector

8e The gross domestic product of the monetary economy in Tanganyikais estimated at just over f92 million, at factor cost, in 1957. About467,000 persons in the territory are reckoned as having been gainfullyemployed in 1957: 430,500 Africans, 10,300 Europeans and 26,300 Asians,Arabs etc. The product of the monetary economy is thus estimated atabout f200 per person gainfully employed.21

9. Africans listed as gainfully employed amount to less than 10% ofthe total African population aged 16 and over (4.8 million in 1957)eThus even allowing for the place of cash crops in African agriculture,the great majority of the population remain in the "subsistence sector".However, in practice no clear line can be drawn between the subsistencesector and the monetary economy, since many of the inhabitants performsome cash transactions while relying largely for their livelihood on sub-sistence production, and since African producers of cash crops usuallyalso grow all or a large part of their basic diet.

10. Estimation of per capita product outside the monetary economy pre-sents very great difficulties of definition and of valuation. The maintables of the national accounts for Tanganyika prepared by the EastAfrican Statistical Department include, for 1957, an allowance of somef 53 million for production outside the monetary economy which can beassessed with a fair degree of accuracy. Such important activities ashut building and beer making are excluded from this estimate. A supple-mentary estimate, not included in the main tables, allows a further 217million for these and various other activities, estimates for which canonly be "reasoned guesses"; and it appears that even this supplementaryestimate conforms to a somewhat restricted definition of economic activityin the subsistence sector. It is therefore necessary to turn to quali-tative evidence for an impression of the level of activity outside themonetary economy. Because of the difficulties of putting appropriatefigures to the product of the territory outside the monetary economy, thissection will use for the most part figures referring to the monetaryeconomy only, since these have a definite meaning in terms of actual trans-actions.

Industrial origin of domestic product

11. About half of the total gross domestic product of Tanganyika (in-cluding subsistence) is contributed by agriculture and roughly another10% by livestock products - see Tables 6a, b and c. Even in the monetaryeconomy, agriculture contributes over one-third of the total product, andlivestock products a further 4-5%. Manufacturing is estimated to havecontributed over 5% of the total product of the monetary sector in 1957for the first time, and mining and quarrying accounted for only a slightlyhigher proportion in the years 1954-57. In relation to the official esti-mate on the basis including the widest coverage of subsistence activities -see Table 6c - manufacturing (including the important item of African

1/ This figure is an exaggeration, since it does not make allowance forthe fact that a substantial part of the monetary product is Droducedby African farmers not classified as "gainfully employed".

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beer-making) is put at about 6% of the total product, and mining andquarrying at about 3%. The relative importance of other activities isindicated in Tables 6a, b and c. Table 6c is designed to show the extentto which the apparent relative importance of different activities isaffected by the coverage adopted for activities outside the monetaryeconomy.

Rate of growth

12. Gross domestic product on the official definition (including, asto 36%, activity outside the monetary economy), is estimated to have in-creased by roughly 2% p,a. in real terms from 1954 to 1957, a rate of in-crease somewhat higher than that of population (Budget Speech of theMinister for Finance and Economics, May 7, 1958). The rate of increasein the monetary economy may be presumed to have been somewhat faster.

13. Various more limited indicators of the rate of growth of the economyare available. One such indicator is the export volume index. Since ex-ports are equivalent to around 45% of the gross product of the moneyeconomy this indicator is of considerable significance. Between 1948 and1952, the volume of exports increased at an average rate of 17% p.a. Thishigh rate of increase probably reflects first post-war recovery and sub-sequently the stimulus of the Korean Boom. Since 1952 the increase ofexport volume has been uneven (c.f. Table 12 and Diagram 1). Percentagechanges from year to year have been:

1952-53 -4.91953-54 +5.11954-55 +11.11955-56 +16.31956-57 -5.9

The development of production of the principal cash crops is shown byTable 20. Certain of these crops - notably sugar and wheat -are produced for the local market rather than for export. Finally, Table21 shows various other indicators of the rate of development of the economy.

Share of general government in the economy

14. General government consumption increased from 14.1% of gross domes-tic product in the monetary economy in 1954 to 16.7% in 1957. Whengeneral government capital formation is added, the share of total govern-ment expenditures in the gross product of the monetary econcmy increasedfrom about 20% in 1954 to about 24% in 1957. In fact, the increase ofgeneral government expenditures from 1954-1957 amounted to 46% of theincrease of gross domestic product in the monetary economy at current marketprices. The increase of govermment expenditures in relation to the totalsize of the monetary economy has contributed to the territory's growingbudgetary difficulties, which are discussed in Chapter III below.

CAPITAL FORiATION

Capital formation in relation to gross product

15. In the period 1954-1957, gross domestic fixed capital formation inthe monetary economy was in the range 22-26% of the gross domestic pro-duct of the monetary economy - c.f. Table 8b. Table 8a puts capital for-mation at 15-17% of gross domestic product as a whole, but this lowerratio is influenced by the somewhat arbitrary coverage accorded to economicactivity outside the monetary economy: e.g., African hut building is notcovered by Table 8a. Since the impression which may be given of the im-portance of capital formation outside the monetary economy depends verylargely on the definitions used, the following paragraphs will concentrateon capital formation within the monetary economy. 97% of the capital for-mation recorded in Tables 7, 8a, 9a, and 9b is in the monetary economy,3% only being building and construction outside the monetary economy.

Public and private

16. Rather more than half of fixed capital formation in the monetaryeconomy in 1954-1957 was private. Public capital formation was aboutevenly divided between general government and government enterprises in1954 and 1955: but, while fixed capital formation of government enter-prises declined from f5.1 million in 1954 to 22.1 million in 1957, thatof general government increased over the same period from f5.1 million tof7.4 million.

Capital formation by industrial use

17. The industrial distribution of fixed capital formation is indi-cated by Tables 9a and 9b. However, these tables do not give a fullysatisfactory picture, since they include the bulk of government capitalformation under the misleading head "Public administration and defense"and do not show its true allocation between different types of activity.This allocation is discussed in Chapter III below.

18. Tables 9a and 9b nevertheless serve to show:

the relatively small magnitude of private investment in agri-culture;the relatively large amount of investment in transport,storage and communications; however, investment in theseactivities fell off in 1956 and 1957;the importance in the economy of construction of dwell-ings.

Capital formation and imports

19. Over the two years 1956 and 1957, capital goods are estimated tohave amounted to some 22% of Tanganyika's retained imports. In this two-year period, imported capital goods made up 35% of gross capital formation.

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Investment in stocks

20. The national accounts figures do not provide estimates of invest-ment in stocks, although this item may well amount on the average ofseveral years to 2% or more of G.N.P. in a developing economy. It isbelieved that a part of the large imports in 1955 was due to stocking-upduring the Middle Eastern crisis. In the supply and use of resourcestable (Table 7) this increase of supply is shown as offset by an increaseof demand for private consumption. Thus it seems likely that the highprivate consumption figure for 1955 (71% of the gross domestic productof the monetary sector - c.f. Table 8b) is spurious, reflecting invest-ment in stocks. Similarly, the below-average figure for private con-sumption in 1956 may be influenced by the offsetting against consumptionproper of some drawing down of stocks.

EXTERNAL TRADE AND PAYMENTS

Place of trade in the economy

21. In the years 1954-57, exports took around 31% of the total re-sources coming into the monetary economy of Tanganyika - gross domesticproduct plus imports. The following figures situate the place of importsin the economy.

1956 1957

Non-government imports of consumers' goods, food,drink and tobacco as percentage of private con-sumption expenditure 22 21

Imports of capital goods as percentage of gross fixedinvestment expenditures 38 33

Imports of producers' materials, spares and accessoriesas percentage of gross domestic monetary product 13 15

Exports-commodity composition

22. The exports of Tanganyika are much more diversified than those ofmost other countries or territories of a comparable level of developmentc.f. Table 11. The drop in sisal prices in the last few years has con-tributed to a fall in the share of sisal in total export earningsto under a quarter in 1956 and 1957. In these two years, coffee accountedfor 19% by value of exports to destinations outside East Africa and cottonfor 17%. Thus in 1956 and 1957 sisal, coffee and cotton together con-tributed 60% of Tanganyika's export earnings from the world outside EastAfrica. The evolution over time of the share in Tanganyika's exports ofthese three commodities is shown by Diagram 2.

23. Fourth place in export value is taken by diamonds. Another mineralwhich has come to make an important contribution to export earnings in

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recent years is lead ore and concentrates - average fl.2 million in1956-57.

2h. Pyrethrunm, castor seed, groundnuts and cashew nuts are all cropsrecently introduced into African farming in Tanganyika and already mak-ing appreciable contributions to export earnings - see Tables 11 and 12.

Exports - value, volume and price

25. The total export earnings of Tanganyika rose to a peak of f48.3million in 1952, helped by record price levels - c.f. Table 10 and 1?iagram1. The 1952 export value was however, narrowly surpassed in 1956,2/further increase of export volume having outweighed declines of price.On the evidence of figures for the first ten months of the year, 1958 ex-ports seem likely to total about f45.5 million, against £43.1 million in1957.

26. As has been seen above (para. 13), the increase in the volume ofexports since 1952 has been irregular. Prices of commodities exportedby Tanganyika have moved generally downwards over the past few years, al-though the decline in sisal prices appears to have been arrested since1957 - see Table 13.

Imports - value, volume and price

27. Total imports into Tanganyika reached a peak value of £49.1 mil-lion (c.i.f.) in 1955, when they were swollen by stocking-up during theMiddle Eastern crisis. They declined to f42.2 million in 1956, roseagain to El'.7.0 million in 1957, but appear to have fallen off rathersharply in 1958.

28. No volume and price indices are available for Tanganyika's im-ports. However, there exists a unit value index for the imports of Tan-ganyika, Kenya and Uganda combined. In Table 10 it has been assumed thatthis price index is roughly applicable to Tanganyika, and it has beenused to deflate value figures so as to gain a rough impression of theevolution of the volume of Tanganyika's imports. It must be stressedthat this procedure is very rough. From 1954-57 the price level of EastAfrican imports changed fairly little, being considerably lower than thelevel of the immediately preceding years but somewhat higher than thatof 1950. Import volume seems to have fluctuated around a generally in-creasing trend: but, as in the case of exports, the year-to-year fluc-tuations make it virtually impossible to identify the strength of theunderlying trend - see Table 10.

/ Value line in Diagram 4 refers to domestic exports to destinationsoutside East Africa. These remained somewhat less in value in 1956than in 1952.

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Imports - commodity composition

29. Table 14 shows the commodity composition of retained imports (im-ports less re-exports) in 1956-57. In these years, manufactured goodsmade up 75% of all imports. Fuels, lubricants etc. amounting to a further8% and food, beverages and tobacco to just under 8%. Among food imports,sugar is the most important item, and wheat flour is also important.This latter is needed to make up a shortage of hard wheat caused by rust.

30. Classified in another way, capital goods accounted for some 22%of retained imports, producerst materials, including feeding stuffs foranimals, for some 34% and consumers' goods other than food, beveragesand tobacco for just over 29%. Government took 12% of retained imports,about 77% of government imports over the two years being equally dividedbetween capital goods and producers' materials.

Geographical distribution of trade

31. As might be expected, the United Kingdom is Tanganyika's largestsingle trading partner. In recent years it has been more important,relatively speaking, as a supplier than as a customer: in 1956 and 1957the United Kingdom supplied over 30% of Tanganyika's imports by value,but took just under 30% of Tanganyika's exports. These proportions aresmaller than those for previous years, there having been a tendency forthe share of the United Kingdom in Tanganyika's total trade to decline -c.f. Table 15.

Certain other sterling countries, and notably India and Australia,are important customers for Tanganyika's exports. Exports to Hong Konghave grown to around 22 million a year from 1955. India and South Africaare prominent amongst sources of imports. There is also a considerablevolume of trade between Tanganyika and its neighbors, Kenya and Uganda,which supply (1956-57) over 15% of Tanganyika's imports though they ab-sorb less than 5% of its exports. The nature of this trade will be brief-ly described below (para. 33). In all, other sterling countries havetaken in recent years around 55% of Tanganyika's exports and have providedconsiderably over 60% of its imports.

Non-sterling O.E.E.C. countries have grown in importance as trad-ing partners of Tanganyika, taking around 30% of its exports in 1956-57and supplying around 15% of its imports.

Exports to the United States and Canada reached a peak in 1952,and fell off to around 9% of the total in 1956-57. In recent years, onlyjust above 2% of imports have been taken from the United States and Canada.

In recent years, Japan has become a major customer, and it is evenmore prominent as a source of imports.

32. The main recipients of Tanganyika's exports are listed in order inTable 16, which also shows the commodities which constitute their major

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purchases from Tanganyika. Most of Tanganyika's major exports go to afairly wide variety of destinations - see Table 17 - but the whole ofdiamond exports are consigned to the United Kingdom and 99% of cashewnuts go to India.

Trade with Kenya and Uganda

33. Tanganyika imports from Kenya and Uganda considerably more thanit exports to them for their own use (see Table 10, figures for "inter-territorial" trade). Tanganyika's exports in this trade consist largelyof primary products, although they include some canned meat and meatpreparations and prepared paints. Imports, by contrast, consist to agreat extent of manufactured goods, cigarettes accounting for over 40%of the total, and beer, wheat flour, clothing and footwear also beingimportant. The principal components of this trade are indicated byTable 18.

Balance of payments

34. On the average of recent years, Tanganyika's export earnings havebeen sufficient to cover the cost of imports plus freight and insurancethereon. Since 1950, there have been deficits on merchandise tradeonly in 1955, the year of exceptional imports, and 1957 (see Table 10).

35. Complete balance of payments figures do not at present exist forTanganyika as a separate entity. The U.N. Visiting Mission of 1957 sug-gested "...that it would be desirable to keep under review the balanceof payments and...that the statistics for this purpose be compiled inthe future". Observation of the Administering Authority: "The Admini-stering Authority agrees that such figures would be most useful and itwill consider the possibility of compiling such figures. There are, how-ever, practical difficulties which arise from the fact that the organi-zation of banking and commerce in the area is on an East African ratherthan on a territorial basis. Moreover there are other statistics suchas better estimates of subsistence agricultural production and informa-tion regarding the pattern and movement of trade within Tanganyika, whichare not yet available and which in the view of the Administering Author-ity are of greater importance at the present time. The AdministeringAuthority believes that in present circumstances and having regard to thelimited resources available to the East African Statistical Departmentit would be preferable to attempt a compilation of these other figuresbefore embarking upon an exercise designed to produce balance-of-pay-ments figures...". In 1958 the East African Statistical Department pub-lished an estimate of the balance of payments for East Africa as a wholein 1956. This compilation identifies certain elements of Tanganyika'sbalance of payments with the world outside East Africa, but not, ofcourse, of its balance of payments with Kenya and Uganda. The fragmen-tary information available from this and other sources is set out inTable 19.

36. It cannot be too strongly stressed that the items recorded in

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Table 19 are an arbitrary selection from a much wider range of trans-actions which must have taken place in practice. The figures shownindicate a surplus on visible trade, supplemented by Colonial Develop-ment and Welfare grants. The offsetting debit items shown are relative-ly small. And yet public authorities are shown as selling portfoliosecurities net and increasing their overdrafts in respect of the JointConsolidated Fund and Joint Miscellaneous Fund. It follows that othertransactions, not shown in Table 19, must have given rise to debitstotalling £9.5 million. These transactions may include notably:

payments to the commercial centre of Nairobi and to Londonfor miscellaneous services;interest and dividend payments by private enterprises andpersons;net debits in respect of travel;investment outside the territory and repatriation of sav-ings by private enterprises and persons.

Private investment by the outside world in Tanganyika appears to havetaken the form in recent years largely of reinvestment of profits of ex-ternally-owned enterprises operating in the territory. Such investmentshould appear in the balance of payments as a capital inflow offset byan equal outflow in respect of interest and dividends. It would there-fore not affect the size of the residual item (unidentified net paymentsto the outside world) appearing in Table 19.

37. The Miission will have to consider whether it is necessary to tryto secure estimates for the most important missing components of Tangan-yika's balance of payments.

Tariffs and other regulations governing trade and payments

38. Tanganyika, Kenya and Uganda form a customs union. The importtariff is considered to be primarily a revenue producing and not a pro-tective measure. The general rate is 22%. Higher rates up to 60% arelevied on a number of luxury goods and lower rates on items consideredmore essential. There is a considerable free list covering machinery an(plant and various agricultural and industrial materials.

39. Some quantitative restrictions remain on dollar and other non-sterling?7 imports, though such restrictions have been progressively re-laxed in recent years. They effect the geographical distribution ratherthan the total value of trade.

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AGRICULTURE

General Features

4o. Agriculture, accounting for roughly half of the gross domesticproduct, is the mainstay of the economic life of Tanganyika. The over-whelming majority of the African population are entirely or predominantlysubsistence farmers and about 80% of the acreage cultivated by Africansis devoted to food production largely for subsistence consumption. Inthe subsistence sector maize, millets and sorghums occupy the largestacreage and cassava, sweet potatoes and bananas produce the largest ton-nage. Root crops are grown as a famine reserve, since corn and bananasare severely affected by drought. Most livestock production is alsocarried out in the subsistence sector.

41. The main cash crops are sisal, cotton and coffee, but six or sevenother crops are of increasing importance, including cashew nuts, ground-nuts (peanuts), tea, castor seed, sunflower seed and tobacco (in inter-territorial trade). Since the end of the war, the production of all themain cash crops, under the impetus of favorable prices, has undergone along-term expansion (see Table 20). The most significant gains between1947 and 1956 were recorded by sisal (76%) and cotton (232%), but largegains were also made by crops of lesser importance such as tea, tobacco,cashew nuts, castor seeds and other oilseeds. Exports of maize and pulseshave also been of some importance in inter-territorial trade with Kenyaand Uganda, with considerable year-to-year fluctuations. A sizable por-tion of grains (mainly maize, wheat and rice) enters the monetary economyfor local consumption.

42. Both Africans and non-Africans are engaged in the production ofcash crops. About 2.5 million acres have been alienated for non-Africanholdings, mostly under long-term lease, the only form of alienation pre-sently permitted. This represents about 1.6% of the total land area ofthe territory "available and suitable" for agricultural and pastoral pur-poses, or 5% of the land being used for arable purposes at the presenttime. About 700,000 acres of this alienated landare under cultivationfor cash crops, principally sisal and secondly coffee and tea. The maincash crops produced by Africans are cotton, coffee, groundnuts, coconuts,sesame, cashew nuts and soybeans - the largest acreage being devoted tocotton. The value of African production of cash crops now exceeds thatof non-African due to the decline in sisal prices and the growth ofAfrican-produced coffee and cotton.

43. Tanganyika is largely self-sufficient in agricultural products;food imports accounted for 6% of total imports in 1957, sugar being themain food imported (one-third), followed by dairy products, vegetableoils, processed fruits and vegetables and small quantities of a widevariety of other products. Sugar production has been increasing and newprojects are expected to satisfy donestic requirements and possibly leavesome surplus for export.

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Cash Crops

44. Sisal 1/Over the past thirty or forty years, by far the most impor-tant cash crop has been sisal, and the economy of the territory has beenbound up with the fortunes of the sisal industry. Sisal remains thelargest single export, but, as shown in Table 11, its relative importancehas diminished sharply during the post-war period, particularly duringthe last seven or eight years. If comparison is based on 1949-50, thuslargely eliminating the distortion in the pattern of exports caused bysoaring sisal prices during the Korean commodity boom, the share of sisalin total exports by 1957 had dropped from about 50% to 24%. The volumeof sisal exports increased by half during this period, but the valueactually fell slightly, owing to lower prices. (The value of sisal ex-ports is now less than half that of the boom years of 1951 and 1952.)During the same period the volume and value of other agricultural exports -

especially coffee and cotton - rose steadily, and the commencement oflarge-scale diamond exports has further diminished the relative importanceof sisal.

45. 6ial was first. introduced by the Germans in 1892 in an effort todevelop a drought-resistant crop suited to conditions in the Tanga prov-ince in the northeast, where roughly 60% of production is located. Itis grown almost entirely by non-Africans under intensive cultivation onlarge estates, about 70 of which account for four-fifths of total output.As cultivated in Tanganyika, the capital requirements for efficient sisalproduction are high; the total capital invested in the industry is esti-mated to be at least £20 million, by far the greater part of which hasbeen obtained by reinvesting a substantial portion of profits. The indus-try employs over 133,000 African workers, more than a third of all thoseworking for wages, and its contribution to governmental revenue (parti-cularly through the income tax on companies) is of major importance. Thus,despite its reduced importance, the territory's economic outlook remainsheavily dependent on the prospects for sisal.

46. The rapid growth of sisal output in Tanganyika since the last warand the countryts position as the largest producer of sisal in the worldare indicated in the following table:

1935-38 1948 1956 1957(Annual average)

AfricaTanganyika 90,000 121,000 186,000 185,000Kenya & Uganda 33,000 36,000 40,000 41,000Mozambique & Angola 27,000 34,000 65,000 71,000French Africa & Madagascar 7,000 4,000 17,000 159000

African Total 157,000 195,000 308,000 312,000

Indonesia 90,000 5,000 35,000 32,000Brazil - 25,000 100,000 115,000Haiti & Central American

Countries 6,ooo 31,000 43,000 36,000

Total 253,000 256,000 486,000 495,000

This section draws heavily on a recent book by C.W. Guillebaud, AnEconomic Survey of the Sisal Indtstry of Tanganyika, 1958, preparedunder the auspices of the Tanganyika Sisal Growers Association.

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47. The market position of sisal is complicated by the fact that inseveral important uses, such as twine, it competes against other hardfibres, namely Manila hemp and henequen. It is significant, however,that whereas sisal represented only about 16% of the world's output ofhard fibres in the early 1920's, it now accounts for two-thirds of theworld's supply. The most important uses for sisal fibre are for makingropes and other forms of cordage, particularly agricultural twine, but itis also used as an upholstery material for automobiles, furniture and mat-tresses, and research is being carried on to extend its consumption toother non-agricultural uses. The expanded demand for sisal has dependedheavily on the long-term growth of mechanized agriculture, which has pro-vided the main outlets for the commodity in the form of binder and balertwine. During the post-war period the spread of the combine harvester,displacing the reaper and binder, has been unfavorable to the demand forbinder twine, but this trend has been outweighed by the rapidly growingdemand for baler twine used in the mechanical baling of hay and silage.In general, it seems reasonable to expect a continued long-term growthin the demand for sisal, based largely on the expansion of world agri-cultural output, but this is not one of the more rapidly growing sectorsof world production and the growth of demand might well be less rapidthan in the 1950's.

48. - The recent rapid growth in world sisal output has been the mainfactor contributing to the weakness in the price of sisal which haspersisted since the end of the Korean boom. The growth of sisal outputin Brazil has been an important new factor affecting the supply position;in 1958 concern over Brazilian competition reached the point where informalovertures were made by the Tanganyika growers concerning the possibilityof an agreed curtailment of output. An increase of low-priced henequen twineexports ftom Mexico to the United States has also contributed. Sisal pricesdid not recover along with other commodity prices following the post-Korean collapse of commodity markets. During the past two or three years,while commodity prices weakened generally the price of sisal continued todecline, though in recent months this trend seems to have come to a halt.

49. In the recent analysis prepared by Mr. C.W. Guillebaud for theTanganyika Sisal Growers Association it is suggested that the presentlow price (and other factors) may accelerate the decline in Indonesiansupplies and, more important, discourage Brazilian production. A numberof Tanganyikan sisal estates have begun to incur losses, and no new expan-sion of capacity has been undertaken in the last two or three years inTanganyika. With regard to the longer-term outlook in Tanganyika, Mr.Guillebaud's appraisal is as follows:

"...it would seem that there are no longer any consider-able areas of new land suitable for sisal cultivationwhich can be made available for this purpose in Tangan-yika. In some of the older areas there is evidence ofsoil exhaustion and diminishing returns; and it is byno means clear, either technically or economically,that it will be practicable to counteract this tendencyby the application of fertilisers on a large scale. Thepresent indications are that the phase of continuous andrapid growth of the output of sisal in Tanganyika hascome to an end and would not be likely to recur even ifthere were to be a marked rise in the price of sisal." 1/

/ Op.cit., p. 12

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50. Cotton The production of cotton has experienced a particularlyrapid growth. In 1938 production was estimated at under 8,000 tons, andthis figure was roughly maintained until 1954 when production jumped to18,300 tons. Recent output has been in the range of 20-23,000 tons.There seems to be considerable doubt whether the spectacular recent rateof growth will be maintained, particularly in the densely populated LakeProvinces, the main area of production. A substantial long-term expansionis, however, expected in the Eastern Province where a new variety of seedhas been introduced.

51. All the cotton produced in Tanganyika is of the American uplandtype (short staple). Production is carried on entirely by African farmerson small plots averaging about l2 acres. Both contract tractor plowingand animal-drawn plows, as well as hoes, are used in preparing the groundfor planting. Governmental measures have been taken to improve the qual-ity of seeds and to encourage efficient cultivation, but the increase inoutput has come mainly from larger acreage. A statutory marketing board(the Tanganyika Lint and Cottonseed Board) fixes purchase prices on aseasonal basis, but - unlike marketing boards in certain other Africanterritories - does not attempt to insulate the domestic price from fluc-tuating world prices through its operations. About 60% of productionis purchased by African cooperatives, but most of the ginning is doneprivately.

52. Coffee The production of coffee, Tanganyika's third most valua-ble cash crop, has been increasing steadily but more slowly than that ofcotton and sisal. About one-fifth is produced by European growers andthe remainder by African growers, principally around Mount Kilimanjaro(Arabica type) and in the Bukoba District in the west side of LakeVictoria (Robusta type). African Arabica production is also expandingrapidly in southwest Tanganyika. Total production is about equallydivided between Robusta and Arabica.

53. Other Cash Crops Most of the post-war expansion of the othercash crops has come from African production, with the principal excep-tion of tea and tobacco. The increased output of oilseeds (especiallycastor seeds) and cashew nuts has been particularly striking. Tea,which is now sixth in value as an agricultural export, is rapidly in-creasing in importance and is entirely produced on non-African planta-tions in the Eastern and Usambara Mountains in the northeast and in theSouthern Highlands Province. There is considerable area remaining forexpansion. Production almost tripled between 1952 and 1957. Tobaccoproduction, particularly the Virginia flue-cured type, is exported toKenya and Uganda at present and is rapidly increasing. Productionappears to be mainly in the hands of non-Africans but African coopera-tives have stimulated production of fire-cured tobacco and at Urambowhere both African and European tenants of the Tanganyika AgriculturalCorporation are successfully growing fire-cured tobacco. Sales of thiscrop have caused the elimination of imports from the United States byKenya ($600,000 in 1956) and exports to areas outside East Africa havebeen increasing.

Livestock

54. Tanganyika is estimated to have a cattle population of over 7million head and a roughly equal number of sheep and goats. Apart fromsubsistence production, however, the livestock industry is thus far asmall factor in the country's economy, and organized ranching or mixedfarming is in its infancy. The potential scope for development of ani-mal husbandry is agreed to be great: there are hundreds of square milesof grasslands with adequate feeding capacity, and the prospective growthof export as well as local demand for livestock and dairying productsmakes this sector a natural one for a vigorous development effort. Theobstacles to a rapid expansion in this sector are, however, formidable.The expansion of animal husbandry is immediately dependent on two factors:the elimination of the tsetse fly and the development of water supplies.In a few areas development has commenced with the aid of bush clearingand improved trypanocidal drugs, but measures to expand and obtain accept-ance of veterinary services and to provide water facilities are slow todevelop, and the amounts allocated for this sector in the existing devel-opment plans, particularly for the provision of water, are modest. Withrespect to African participation in animal husbandry, an important factorin some areas seems to be the characteristic African attitude towardcattle as a sign of status and a famine reserve and frequent oppositionto reducing the number of animals to the carrying capacity of the avail-able pasturage through a process of culling for sale. Thus, despite thevast potential range capacity, overstocking is a serious problem in theareas now devoted to cattle raising, particularly in the Lake, Northernand Central Provinces, and is contributing to soil erosion. The govern-ment, coimnenting on certain observations on the subject of destockingby the Uribed Nations 1957 Visiting Mission, stated that while destockingprograms are still necessary in several areas, the emphasis is shiftingto the opening up of new lands and improved pasture management as bettersolutions to the over-stocking problem than enforced sales, which havebeen attempted apparently with little success.

Agricultural Development

55. The above account, focused largely on the post-war expansion ofthe monetary sector of the agricultural economy under generally favorableprice stimuli, presents a picture of largely autonomous agriculturalgrowth which, in itself, is not unimpressive. It must, however, be placedin perspective against the basic poverty and stagnation of the subsistenceeconomy on which the mass of the population for the most part continuesto depend. Furthermore, productivity in the growing cash sector of theeconomy, except for sisal, is generally low even by African standards.Thus, in the famous African coffee area of the Chagga Tribe on MountKilimanjaro, the average yield of coffee is three bags to the acre ascompared with ten per acre being produced on "integrated" African farmsin Kenya. In a speech to the Legislative Council several years ago the

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Governor stated that according to the advice of experts there could bean increase in the production of coffee amounting to 50% without plant-ing a single extra tree, but that there was the lack of will to take therelatively simple steps needed to improve the culture of coffee.

56. Since the liquidation of the ill-fated Groundnut Scheme, plannedand developed by the Colonial Office and the United Kingdom OverseasFood Corporation after the last-war, "capital-expenditure for the govern-ment's agricultural development program has been on a modest scale. Onlyabout £200,000 of the £6 million proposed capital expenditure for devel-opment in 1958/59 is specifically for agriculture, though some of themoderate expenditures for water development and certain general develop-ment expenditure, for example on road construction, have indirectlyassisted agriculture. "Current" expenditure on agricultural researchjveterinary services, and similar activities is more substantial, however,and combined capital and current expenditure on agriculture, forests andveterinary services in the proposed 1958/59 budget was £2.6 million.

57. Nearly all the large public agricultural development projects atthe territorial level are being carried out under the direction of theTanganyika Agricultural Corporation (a local government corporationcreated in 1954 as the successor to the Groundnut Scheme). At Nachingwea,Kongwa and Urambo, sites of the former Groundnut Scheme, the Corporationhas been operating what are, in effect, three pilot projects. These con-sist mainly of a modest number of tenant farms worked mostly by Africansand, with some exceptions, have shown encouraging results. Among thecrops being produced and marketed are groundnuts, maize, soybeans, sesame,sunflower seeds, castorbeans and flue-cured tobacco. At Kongwa the Cor-poration itself operates a successful cattle ranch.

58. The agricultural development program also includes a number ofprojects designed to increase African agricultural productivity through-out the territory. These include the expansion of agricultural extensionservices, the improvement of livestock routes, small-scale water develop-ment and pilot irrigation schemes, a plan to increase the productivityof the territory's forests, the establishment of veterinary disease andinvestigation centers, and the like. Bush-clearing schemes to combattse-tse infestation by the method of discriminative and selective clear-ing have been pushed forward in many parts of the country. In particular,two important schemes are under way in the Lake Provinces which willclear the tse-tse fly from 500 square miles in northeastern Sukumalandand 400 square miles in the Korogwe district.

59. From the long-run point of view particular emphasis is being placedon the development of the Rufiji river basin. The Rufiji basin, whichincludes parts of the Southern Highlands Province, the Southern Provinceand the Eastern Province, covers an area of about 68,500 square miles -20% of Tanganyika - and is the only large potential area for long-termagricultural, power and irrigation development in the territory. Thearea contains a variety of agricultural terrain: the higher valleys andmountains adjacent to the tobacco area of Iringa district in southernTanganyika, lower valleys suitable for large-scale sugar development,

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and delta lands on which moderate quantities of rice are being produced.For the past two and a half years a team of eleven FAO specialists work-ing in conjunction with the Tanganyika Agricultural Corporation has beenmaking an intensive ground and aerial survey (including both geologicaland soil surveys) to determine the long-term potentialities for graduallydeveloping individual areas. It has been estimated that from 300,000 to1 million acres have potentialities for arable and tree crop production.A number of potential dam sites and reservoir areas have been surveyed.In 1958 a pilot irrigation scheme was established in the Mbeya districtof the Southern Highlands Province. It is planned to extend this in duecourse to 5,000 acres, to be worked by African tenant farmers, which willrepresent the first large-scale irrigation scheme in Tanganyika. Apartfrom this none of the official development plans as yet provides for anylarge-scale agricultural development of the Rufiji basin in the form ofdams, irrigation works, and the like.

60. An increase in African agricultural productivity is the primaryobject of the government's program of agricultural development. As ex-plained in the presentation of its Ten Year Development Plan, 1955-65(See Appendix 1), the attainment of this goal calls for (i) a shiftfrom subsistence agriculture to the production of cash crops and (ii)an increase in productivity within the monetary sector of agriculturalproduction. As stated in the Plan,

"the need is to overcome the physical obstacles of environmentand the human obstacle which is the suspicion and conservatismof the African farmer. The problems are technical, financialand not least administrative."

61. A substantial amount of work is going into agricultural research,land and water surveys and pilot schemes. The technical problems ofagricultural development, while formidable, do not call for special com-ment here. The financial problems, which relate to the provision ofresources devoted directly to agriculture and to financing of infrastruc-tural investment on water supplies, roads and the like are discussed inthe following chapter. A few words, however, may be said here on theadministrative problem, which - apart from the typical problem of pro-moting agricultural extension and other measures - centers around thequestion of land usage and land tenure.

Land Tenure

62. The problem of land tenure and land usage in Tanganyika arisesfrom the prevailing pattern of customary land usage and from the changesthat have been superimposed on this pattern by the gradual introductionof cash crops in many areas. The customary form of land usage is thatof shifting cultivation which is traditionally associated with subsistenceagriculture throughout East Africa. The system has undergone considerableevolution in recent years, but its essence has been described in the fol-lowing terms:

- 27 "

"tA mental picture has to be formed of individual familieswithin a clan, and of clans within a tribe, cutting out forthemselves from the virgin bush small family holdings on whichto plant their subsistence crops. The family herds grazed incommon in the adjacent bush and on the stubbles but were notin any sense integrated with the cultivation or restricted innumbers to the carrying capacity of the land. When the soilshowed signs of exhaustion by lower crop yields, the familycut out a new holding and the original one was left to revertto a bush fallow, making thus a rough rotation. Intercroppingwas sometimes practised with various pulses and cereals, andoften the crops were scattered to take account of fertilityvariations and distribute the labour load. But to preservethe land, a long periodic fallow was in most places a neces-sity. It was a system well fitted to conditions of old whenpopulation, both human and animal, was kept low by disease,famine and warfare."

* ** **

** ** *33 *

***

*~a ** *t *

* .33 ** .33*

* .33.f

* *3, *

*~-

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The concept of property in land accompanying the system of customaryusage is one in which land is regarded as a local clan trust, handeddown by ancestors and passed on to descendants; individual propertyrights in land are thus excluded. W<rith the passage of time, particu-larly in d6neely populated areas where cash orope arQ axpanding, therehas been a growing degrae of more or less permanent de f.acto occupancyof particular tracts by individual 1Africans, but no formal change in thelegal oystem has accompanied. this, customary eystem of tenure being pro-teCted by territorial law, subject to the limited areas made availableby the peooese af alienationo

63. Two closely related tendencies have led to increasingly seriousproblems within the system of customary usage. In the first place, thegrowth of population of both humans and livestock has tended in a numberof areas in Tanganyika to lead to mounting pressure on the availableland areas. The consequence is that an effective rotation of bush fal-low can no longer be continued, and holdings are split up into units ofuneconomic size. The area of grazing is reduced by the extension of thecultivated area while, at the same time, the number of livestock increases.Overgrazing leads to soil erosion which in turn has serious effects on thecatchment systems on which the water supply is based.

64. The second tendency is the gradual introduction of cash crops asan addition to the old subsistence farming, which has meant another in-crease in the demand for cultivable land. Output under these conditionsis, of course, higher than under purely subsistence farming, but produc-tivity remains low and the same tendency sets in toward soil erosion andexhaustion. There are still large areas of unused cultivable land intowhich expansion is possible, but this offers no permanent solution andin the short run, furthermore, expansion is restricted by tribal bounda--ries and by lack of water and other facilities. An incidental difficultyresults from the fact that, despite the small portion of total area repre-sented by alienated land, the process of deterioration has been particu-larly rapid in the attractive mountainous areas adjacent to large tractsof alienated land, some of which are not presently under cultivation.

65. The methods by which to accomplish a changeover-from subsistenceto economic farming without the undesirable consequences described abovehave occupied the attention of numerous investigations of which two areof particular importance, namely, (i) The East African Royal Commission,1953-55 (1956, Cmd. 9475) and (ii) the recent report by the FAO on landtenure, referred to above (1959, T/1438), which was prepared by Mr. ArthurGaitskell who was a member of the East African Royal Commission and for-merly Chairman of the Sudan Gezira Board. The Royal Commission urged thatin order to provide effective incentives, policy concerning the tenure anddisposition of land should aim at the individualization of land ownershipand mobility in the transfer of land in order to enable the maximum free-dom of access to land for economic use. To this end it made a series ofrecommendations including the establishment of a procedure by which indi-vidual rights of land ownership would be confirmed by a process of adjud-tication and registration. The FAO report, taking a more eclectic view,contains the observation that "the enormous variations in Tanganyika in

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soil, climate, water, tsetse, communication and sophistication make anydogmatic assertions Fabout new forms of land tenure and usage7 stupidlyrash." It points out that pressure for increased productivity and theproblem of getting people to move from overcrowded areas is bound todemand more attention to controlled planning of undeveloped land. Oneissue that may arise in the programing of agricultural development is acompetition for funds between projects of this character and those aimingat a more general rise of agricultural productivity through agriculturalextension and related activities.

66. The Tanganyika Government has continued to study the East AfricanRoyal Commission's recommendations on land tenure but has thus far re-frained from introducing any far-reaching proposals. A limited step wastaken in 1958 with the publication of Government Paper No. 6 (Review ofLand Tenure Policy, Part I), which presented to the Legislative Councilfor consideration the Government's proposed position on "land held undercustomary tenure in rural areas where occupation has so far developedthat it is individual, exclusive, and unlimited in time." Briefly stated,the Government's proposal is that the Governor should have authority toconvert customary land to freehold land and that he should exercise thisauthority in instances in which he and the individual landholders areconvinced that to do so would serve the best interests of the landholdersthemselves and of Tanganyika. The object is to give legal sanction tothe de facto proprietary rights which are emerging in the more advancedareas of the country. Concern over local reaction to radical changes inthe system clearly has induced an attitude of caution on the part of theGovernment.

67. Tanganyika's representative recently informed the Trusteeship Coun-cil that the government's proposals should be regarded as preliminary pro-posals designed to secure a reaction from the African population. TheTerritorial Convention of Chiefs, he said, has welcomed these proposalsin principle, but, in accordance with expectations, the proposals havemet with different receptions in various localities. They have been wel-comed in areas where there are perennial crops and where there is a pres-sure of population on the land. In some of the more backward areas, how-ever, the view has been expressed that the people are not ready for sucha change. He added that there are indications that some African politi-cians would prefer the grant of leasehold titles for individual holdingsrather than freehold titles. An indication of the variety of views andpositions on the land question within the African population itself isthe fact that the African leader of the Opposition in the LegislativeCouncil (Mr. Nyerere) in a recent debate on the Governmentts Paper No. 6expressed doubt about the wisdom of adopting generally a system of indi-vidual proprietary rights and suggested that a system of national owner-ship might well prove better, in the light of world experience, at leastin land not yet developed.

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TRANSPORT

Railways and Harbors

68. The basic railway system of Tanganyika was laid down by the Germanadministration at the beginning of the century. It consists of two linesrunning east to west, the Central Line from Dar es Salaam to Lake Tangan-yika and the Tanga line to the Northern Province (see Map 1). The CentralLine has two branches, one from Tabora to Mwanza on Lake Victoria, con-structed in the late 1920ts, and the other from Kaliuwa to Mpanda, con-structed during 1947-1950 to provide an outlet for the lead mine at Mpanda.On the Tanga Line the British built a short extension from Moshi to Arushain the 19201s; the connection with the Kenya-Uganda system by way of Voiwas built during the 1914-1918 War. A third line, also running from eastto west, is the Southen Province Line from the Port of Mtwara to Nachin-gwea, a distance of 131 miles. This was built between 1947 and 1954 toopen up the area around Nachingwea in connection with the Groundnut Scheme.

69. The system of railway communications is thus stratified horizontally,each line serving a belt of country stretching from a coast port to an in-land terminus. In his comment on the Royal Commission's report the Governorpointed out that

"...of the zones which have a 'fair prospectt of 30 inchesof rainfall annually, none but the lake shores of Mwanza andKigoma and the coastal areas served by the Tanga, Central andSouthern Province lines is in actual contact with a railway.The much larger zones in the north-west and the south-westhave to depend on long distance feeder roads some of whichare still not up to all-weather standards."

The long-term objective of railway development is to build a north-southrail link across Tanganyika connecting the Tanga and Kenya-Uganda systemwith the Central Line and the latter with the Rhodesian system. In theshort-run particular emphasis is placed on extending the Central Linefrom Morogoro toward the Kilombero Valley and subsequently into theKilombero Valley itself. Details of the estimated costs are containedin the extract from the Ten-Year Development Plan, 1955-65, which appearsin the Appendix. A special study of the potential link from the CentralLine through the Kilombero Valley and the Southern Highlands to theRhodesias and South Africa has been made, but no estimate of the cost ofthe complete execution of this project is contained in the Plan i/.

70. No significant expansion of the railway system has occurred sincethe construction of the short Southern Line. In 1948 the TanganyikaRailways and Ports Administration was consolidated with the systems ofthe other two East African territories under the administration of thenewly established East African Railways and Harbours Administration.

1/ The study on the link with Central and South Africa is: Report onthe Central African Rail Link Development Survey by Sir Alexander Gibband Partners and Overseas Consultants, Inc.., Colonial Office, 2 vols.,1952.

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The East African Railways and Harbours Administration, assisted by a loanof £8 million from the International Bank, has spent considerable sums ofmoney on the acquisition of rolling stock for the Tanganyika system.

710 Tanganyika has four main ports: Dar es Salaam, the principal port,Tanga, Mtwara and Lindi. AUl together these ports handled in 1956 780,000tons of imports and 696,000 tons of exports, roughly double the volume in1948. The rush of post-war traffic found bottlenecks at Dar es Salaam aswell as at Tanga, but substantial excpansion of port facilities has sincebeen accomplished at both ports, which are at the termini of the principalrailways. With the completion of three deep-water berths at Dar es Salaam,the present port capacity is regarded as sufficient for some time. TheTen Year Development Plan, 1955-65 envisages three additional deep-waterberths at Dar es Salaam, increasing present capacity by about one-third,but no firm plans for this project have been made.

Roads

72. The road system of the territory is officially classified as follows:

(i) Main roads (can be all-weather roads with addition ofpermanent bridges) ........ ....... 3,500 miles

(ii) Local and feeder roads (partly dry-weatherroads)....... ..... *...... ** *...~. ....... 3,900 miles

(iii) District roads (dry-weather only)......ll,055 miles

(iv) Village roads ........................... 8,00 miles

Total 26,955 miles

The network of main roads is shown in Map 1. The long-term object of theterritory's road program is to bring up to all-weather standard a gridsystem of four north-south crossed by three east-west trunk roads. Thisdevelopment, together with the projected extension of the railway network,would bring the combined road and rail network into touch with all theareas of thirty-inch rainfall reliability.

73. Progress toward this remote goal has been slow and the maintenanceand extension of Tanganyika's road network has been described as a Sisypheantask. In the 1955-65 Development Plan abTat.£&1 million, or one-fifth ofthe target for total expenditure of £96 million, was allocated to roadconstruction. At roughly £2 million per year, this is about double thepresent rate of outlay on road oDnstruction. In a recent speech theMinister of Communications and Works stated that of the approximately27,000 miles of roads in the territory about 8,000 miles are up to the"all weather" or "nearly all weather standard" or are roads with verylight traffic. He-put the cost of bringing all the territoryts roads upto standard, at the rate of about £5,000 per mile, at £80-100,000,000.It is not clear, however, how far this conception goes beyond the objectiveof a three-by-four grid system referred to in the preceding paragraph.

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Further, according to one official estimate, the cost per mile of con-structing an all-weather gravel road is about £10,000 and of a bitumin-ized road £18,000. It may be that the £5,000 per mile estimate mentionedabove is based on a somewhat lower average standard than the typical gravel(murram) all-weather road intended for heavy traffic in East Africa.

74. In the post-war development of the road system particular emphasishas been given to the approaches from Dar es Salaam to the southern partof the territory (Southern Highlands and Southern Province). This is thearea that has the greatest potential both for agricultural and, so far asis known, mineral development. The Minister of Communications recently-commented that five years ago it would have been unthinkable to drivefrom Dar es Salaam to Mbeya (at the northern tip of Lake Nyasa) in oneday, though this is done often. In the Eastern and Central Provinces ahard surface road (bitumen) has been completed between Dar es Salaam andMorogoro and is being extended to Iringa in the direction of the KilomberoValley. It is expected that by the end of 1959 an all-weather road connnec-tion between Dar es Salaam and Dodoma (about half-way across the country)in the Central Province will be completed. It must be borne in mind, how-ever, that heavy rains can make even so-called all-weather roads temporarilyimpassable.

MINING

75. Mineral production may be of considerable importance in Tanganyika'seconomic future, but the present contribution of this sector to domesticproduct is only 3 to 4%, about the same as that of manufacturing. A con-siderable variety of minerals is produced in Tanganyika, but diamonds, goldand lead account for most of the value of mineral exports (see Table 12).

76. Although the general geology of the territory is known, it is theGovernment's view that few areas have been geologically examined in suf-ficient detail for them to be excluded as unlikely to carry economicminerals. A program of geological surveying is being actively pursuedby the government, which was assisted for several years (1955-58) by asmall team of geologists furnished by the United Nations Technical Assist-ance Administration. A geophysical airborne survey of certain areas inthe southwestern part of the country is being undertaken by the WesternRift Exploration Company, a subsidiary of the Anglo-American Corporationof South Africa.

77. The major mineral enterprise in the territory, Williamson DiamondsLtd., which was established in 1940, achieved full capacity throughputin 1958 with a record high output and exports having an estimated valueof £4.4 million, an increase of £1.1 million over the 1957 figures. In1958, on the death of Dr. John Williamson, the owner of the enterprise,equal shares in the venture were acquired by the De Beers Company and theTanganyika Government, the Government's share of the cost of the purchasebeing financed by a long-term loan from De Beers.

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78. A number of mineral ventures are in various stages of developmentor planning. These are all private ventures, some being in associationwith the United Kingdom Colonial Development Corporation, which hasapproved capital expenditure in minerals and other activities in Tangan-yika of £3,570,000, distributed as follows:

(in thousands of £ sterling)

Mbeya Explorations Ltd. / 330Rungwe Coal Company 1/ 20Tanganyika Coalfields Ltd. 1/ 450Tanganyika Wattle Estates 1,270Tangold Mining Company 1,000Williamson Diamonds Ltd. 2,244

1/ Investigations only

79. The development of minerals in Tanganyika is closely bound up withthe provision of transport and power facilities, For example, the MbeyaExploration Company, associating the Dutch firm N.U. Billiton Maj and theColonial Development Corporation, are investigating the extraction ofniobium from pyrochlore in southwest Tanganyika and have already establisheda pilot plant. Proved reserves of ore are considerable, but full-scaledevelopment requires the availability of electric power either from hydrofacilities on the Kwira River or from thermal installations burning fuelfrom the Songwe coalfields also in the southwestern part of the territory.The exploitailon of the large deppsits of coal known to exist in the south-west depends on railway development. A project to establish a railwaylink between Tanganyika and the Rhodesias and South Africa has been studied.This would traverse the Kilombero Valley and the Southern Highlands and,among other things, would provide access to the coal fields. More recentlyanother project for providing access to the coal fields has been studied.In this instance the Anglo-American Corporation, Frobisher of Canada, theTanganyika Government and the Colonial Development Corporatior~ associatedin Tanganyika Coalfields Ltd., are examining the feasibility of construct-ing an extension linking the Portuguese railway system with Lake Nyasa.

80. Exploration for petroleum is being carried out by the BP-ShellExploration Company of Tanganyika, which has drilled two deep test wellson the coast, so far without positive results. The second well, drilledto a depth of over 12,000 feet, proved of sufficient geological interestthat, according to a recent government statement, the company will almostcertainly continue its exploration.

81. Such potential production as is represented bY known but undevelopedmineral deposits is chiefly in phosphates and coal. The Tanganyika Govern-ment has recently reported the discovery of a large phosphate deposit"which may well prove to be of major importance" 70 miles south of Arusha.On the other hand, in its report on East Africa, the Economist IntelligenceUnit regarded the large-scale development of a coal mining industry in thenext ten years or so as unlikely. It considered that even if a railway

34 -

were built to carry coal tq the coast, the world market would not permitof coal exports on an economic basis, while the development of a signifi-cant amount of coal-using industry in southern Tanganyika would have toawait a general advance in the domestic market.

82. The factors determining the likely development of the mining indus-try of Tanganyika are too complex to be adequately discussed here. Thehigh degree of uncertainty surrounding the future of mineral developmentsuggests, however, that any projections of economic growth should probablybe made on oonservative assumptions regarding the development of this sec-tor.

MANUFACTURING

83. Since the end of the war, manufacturing, particularly in the formof light industry, has undergone a steady expansion, but this sector stillaccounts for only 3 to 4% of domestic product. As shown in Table 4, manu-facturing (apparently excluding sisal processing) absorbs less than 20,000of African employees. On a somewhat broader definition, including certainservice trades, miscellaneous workshops, and sisal processing (which aloneengaged 24,000 persons), the total number of employees registered in 1956was about 63,000.

84. The processing of primary commodities grown in the territory is thepredominant form of manufacturing; the more important processing industriesare cotton ginning, the processing of sisal, coffee curing, sugar manufac-ture, tea processing, meat packing and grain and oil milling. Manufactur-ing for the domestic market is carried out mostly by small units; the prin-cipal trades are light metal, engineering, woodworking, light chemicalengineering, brick and tile making and tailoring.

85. Several sizable manufacturing projects are in various stages ofdevelopment. In 1958 the East African Tobacco Company Ltd. (which has alarge plant in Kenya) began to construct a £1.5 million cigarette andtobacco factory in Dar es Salaam. A £350,000 flour mill was establishedin 1958. Licenses have recently been granted for two textile factories.Another maior project in an early stage is the Kilombero Valley SugarScheme, being promoted by the Tanganyika Sugar Company Ltd. This enter-prise, which calls for an integrated growing and refining operation, hasa multiracial board of directors, all Tanganyika residents, and is seek-ing finance from private sources in the Netherlands and Tanganyika, andfrom the Colonial Development Corporation and the International FinanceCorporation.

86. Most manufacturing firms are in private hands, but the governmenthas fostered development in manufacturing (and certain other fields) bydirect participation on an ad hoc basis. In a recent comment on a pro-posal that such activity might be consolidated in the hands of a publicDevelopment Corporation, the Government expressed the view that in theabsence of a substantial increase in the amount of capital available forsuch an institution, it considered that participation on the present

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basis is just as effective as would be a similar amount of assistancethrough a Development Corparation. A certain amount of effort has goneinto the promotion of African business ventures in the commercial field,however.

87. In 1956 the Administration appointed a Commissioner of Commerce andIndustry to give special attention to fmuthering the establishment of indus-try. Other policies adopted by the government to promote industrial devel-opment include provision for refund of customs duties on imported raw mater-ials and equipment in approved industries and the allowance, under the com-pany tax law, of accelerated depreciation on industrial plant and equipment.There is also a systoi3 of licensing of industrial enterprises administeredon an East African basis by the East African Industrial Council, a govern-mental body, with representation from three territories. The licensingprocedure is aimed at protecting newly established manufacturing enter-prises from "urneconomic competition" in scheduled industries which now in-clude mainly textiles and various metal products. The limited number ofscheduled industries seems to indicate, among other things, that the scopeof possible confilict between Tanganyika, on the one hand, and Kenya andUganda,on the other,con3erning the location of industry within the EastAfrican region is not considered large at present. Within the East Africanregion, industrial development has advanced most in Kenya where the con-tribution of manufacturing to met national product rose from 9% in 1947 to13% in 1956, Tanganyika's imports of industrial products from Kenya includean increasing amount of light manufactures, and Kenya is expected to shiftshortly from a net importer to a net exporter of cement. The "problem" ofKenya's head start in manufacturing and the general question of the locationof new manufacturing ventures within the region may be of importance, how-ever, in the long-term development of Tanganyika, though the limited sizeof the domestic market in Tanganyika appears to be the more immediateobstacle to industrial development.

88. As mentioned earlier, the customs duties of the three East Africanterritories are coordinated within a de facto customs union. In the caseof Tanganyika, import duties serve primarily to raise revenue, but thequestion of tariff protection for development has become more prominentrecently, particularly in connection with the promotion of a textile in-dustry. In 1958 a number of changes were introduced into the East Africantariff schedules, including a moderate increase in the level of the generalimport duty and an increase in import duties on textiles and clothing from22 to 30%. The immediate object of this increase appears to have been toassist the large new cotton textile mill in Uganda (Nyanza Textile MillsLtd.) which has been losing money heavily under the impact of competitionfrom Indian and Japanese textiles. It has been suggested by some observersthat the licensing of a textile mill in Tanganyika which followed the tar-iff increase was, in effect, a by-product of the decision to increase pro-tection of the Uganda mill.

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MONETARY AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

The East African shilling, the common currency of Tanganyika, Kenyaand Uganda, is issued by the East African Currency Board. This Board isobliged to keep at least 100% sterling backing for currency issued in EastAfrica. Its function is to make available East African currency againstdeposits of sterling, and to provide sterling freely in exchange for EastAfrican currency. Its assets consist predominantly of United KingdomGovernment securities or the equivalent.

This system has several important consequences. In the firstplace, financing of government deficits by money creation or borrowingfrom a local central bank is impossible in Tanganyika, there being no cen-tral bank. If the government wishes to spend more than it receives incurrent revenue, it must run down assets, borrow from persons, firms orcorporate bodies at home, or else borrow externally.

Another consequence is that deficits in the external balance ofpayments (at any rate for the three territories combined) tend to some ex-tent to be self-correcting. An excess of payments to the outside worldover receipts from the outside world automatically brings about a corres-ponding contraction of the currency circulation.

The system does not automatically prevent development of some ex-cess pressure or demand but it makes impossible any major inflation. In-ternal purchasing power may increase in relation to available goods andservices as the result either of an export surplus or of the receipt ofcredits from outside. Commercial banks may vary money supply in the broadsense through their local credit operations, subject to the limits im-posed by their assets held with their headquarters in London. Up to a cer-tain point the holders of an increase in local purchasing power may preferto spend it locally rather than externally, and so exert the equivalentof inflationary pressure. However, there is always a pressure valve inthat anybody holding currency or a bank account in East Africa remainsfree at all times to convert it into sterling.

In addition to the commercial banks and several private buildingsocieties four governmental sources of credit for special purposes areavailable, all of them of modest capitalization and intended to providesmall loans to individuals mainly for agriculture and urban housing. Thelargest of these agencies, the Land Bank, provides credit facilities tomembers of all races and the other three to Africans only. The agenciesand their operations are as follows:

Number of Loans Outstand- Total amount ofAgency ing at 31 October, 1958 loans outstanding

Land Bank 525 f,84,90African Productivity Loan,Fund 299 t 93,676Local Development Loan Fund 286 £ 62,142Urban Housing Loan Fund 285 f22,5OOO

In 1958 the Local Development Loan Fund was authorized to approve

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loans for capital equipment for African commercial enterprises.

The local capital market is, as yet rudimentary, but the Govern-ment has recently succeeded in raising two long-term loans locally, thelatest in 1958 in the amount of fl million.-

The number of depositors in the Postal Savings Banks has risenfrom 50,000 in 1948 to about 100,000 with balances of about f2.4 million.

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CHAPTER III. DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND THEIR FINANCING

89. Since the end of the Second World War the Government of Tanganyikahas undertaken a substantial amount of capital expenditure for purposesof economic development. A considerable portion of the steadily growingcurrent expenditure on economic and social services can also be consideredas developmental. Other important development expenditures have been madeby the East African Railways and Harbours Administration and by the EastAfrican High Commission, the latter for various joint research and othertechnical services.

THE TERRITORIAL BUDGET

90. Tanganyika's budget consists of two parts, one relating to currentrevenue and expenditure and the other to the capital budget, sometimesreferred to as Developmernt Expenditure (see Tables 22 and 23) Currentexpenditure has risen from about £5.7 million in 1947 to £21 million in1958/59, while capital expenditure has grown from less than a half millionpounds to £6.6 million 1/. In recent years Development Expenditure togetherwith current expenditure on economic and social services has been of theorder of £15 million per year, or roughly 60% of the total budget (seeTable 24).

91. While capital expenditure rose from £4.9 million to £6 millionbetween 1952 and 1958/59, the current outlay for economic and social ser-vices rose more rapidly from £4.2 million to £10 million, or from 11% to20% of total current expenditure. As indicated in Table 24, economicservices (agriculture, water development, roads) have claimed roughly aconstantc 30% of current and capital expenditure combined since 1952. Overthe same period combined expenditure on social services (education andhealth mainly) rose from 18% to 30% of public expenditure.

92. Since the end of the War, Tanganyika's territorial revenues havebeen sufficient to finance the rapidly expanding current expenditures and,in addition, to cover a minor part of capital expenditure. Supported bythe post-war boom in primary commodity prices and the expansion of outputof the territoryt s major exports, revenue rose rapidly and in 1954/55reached about £19 million, which was above the temporary peak attainedduring the commodity boom of the Korean War. Significantly, however, noexpansion of territorial revenue has occurred since 1954/55.

93. During the past year or two this tendency appears traceable to thegeneral decline in export income caused by the drop in commodity prices.There is an apparent contradiction, however, in the fact that the valueof exports rose substantially during 1954 to 1956 and still remains wellabove the pre-1954 level, while revenue has remained virtually unchangedsince 1954/55. The explanation may be found in the sisal industry. Sisal

1/ Since 1954 the fiscal year refers to the year ending 30 June. Unlessotherwise stated, figures for the year 1958/59 are budget estimates.

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prices have been declining steadily since 1954 (and even earlier), andnarrowing margins of profit in the sisal industry appear to be reflectedin the steady decline in revenue from income taxation since 1954/55,This suggests that the contribution to territorial revenue of the sisalindustry is more than proportionate to its share in total exports.

94. While current revenues have reached a plateau during the past fouror five years, current expenditures - which previously were considerablybelow current revenue, thus permitting transfers to reserves for thefinancing of capital expenditure - have risen rapidly, by roughly 40%.These divergent trends explain the budgetary "crisis"l with which the ter-ritory is now confronted. In 1957/58 the government budgeted for a defi-cit of £701,000 on current account but, owing mainly to restraints oncurrent expenditure, ended the year with a slight surplus. The 1958/59budget estimates envisaged a deficit of £1.2 million on current accountand, despite the fact that actual expenditures are expected to be closeto £1 million short of the estimates, a shortfall in revenue below theestimates will lead to a deficit of about £1 million. The outlook for1959/60 is even less satisfactory so far as revenue is concerned; lowerrevenue from income tax is expected, mainly because of lower profits inthe export sector, and there is expected to be a diminution in customsrevenue (import duties) and excises as the result of deflationary tenden-cies brought about by the decline in export proceeds.

95. In these circumstances the Governor recently held consultations onterritorial finance with the Secretary of State for Colonies. In March1959 he informed the Legislative Council that he had received assurancethat, in addition to assistance being provided under the CommonwealthDevelopment and Welfare Act mainly for capital expenditure, some specialfinancial. help would be given toward meeting the current deficit. Hestated, however, that he was not in a position to give any precise figureon the assistance likely to be made available and that it might be somelittle time before final decisions can be taken.

96. The emergence of this budgetary difficulty, which for the firsttime in the territory's recent history raises the question of externalfinancial assistance to meet not only development expenditure but alsothe current budget, cannot be said to have been unanticipated, althoughits arrival has been hastened by the recent weakness in internationalcommodity markets. The balance and relationship between the growth ofcapital and current expenditure has been a continuing cause of concernin the formulation of the territory's several Development Plans, andobviously poses an issue of major importance for the IBRD Mission. Theterritory's representative recently informed the United Nations Trustee-ship Council that unless an unexpected and very marked improvement inrevenues occurred there would inevitably be a reduction of the socialand other services which the territory badly needs. The incidence ofsuch adjustments obviously raises complex questions of finance, politics,and the strategy of development programing.

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97. The volume of territorial revenue reflects, of course, not onlythe level of income but also the incidence of taxation. It has not beenpossible in this memorandum to go into the question of tapping additionalsources of revenue within the territory, but it does not appear that thisis regarded as a promising avenue of approach to the budgetary problem inthe near future.

THE CAPITAL BUDGET

98. Total public capital expenditure, which affords a rough indicationof developmental outlays, has ranged between £5 and £6 million during thepast five or six years or roughly one-fifth of the combined current andcapital budget. During this period the expenditure in particular sectorshas shifted substantially. Expenditures on communications (mainly roadconstruction) have declined, while the most rapid growth has occurred insocial services (mainly the construction of schools) and township devel-opment. Expenditure on natural resource development (mainly agriculture)has also risen substantially.

99. The sources of financing for the capital budget are shown in Table23. Extemnal sources (loans and grants from the United Kingdom) havefurnished about three-fourths of the funds during the past five or sixyears. Loans floated on the London market (with approval and, in effect,guarantee of the United Kingdom Treasury) have comprised the bulk of ex-ternally-raised funds, the remainder consisting mainly of United KingdomColonial Development and Welfare (C.D.&W.) grants. Tanganyika has reliedmore heavily than the other two British East African territories on long-term loans placed on the London Market for the financing of its develop-ment program. In consequence the public debt of the territory rose from£5.7 million in 1952 to £16.3 million in mid-1958; annual charges on thedebt now absorb about £1 million, or 5% of current expenditure.

100. About one-fourth of development revenue is derived from two ter-ritorial sources: (i) the Development Fund, financed principally fromthe proceeds of export taxes and similar levies made mainly during theperiod of high commodity prices prior to 1954/55, and (ii) proceeds fromthe sale of German-owned assets sequestered during the last War (Custod-ian of Enemy Property Funds). The latter is, of course, a non-renewablesource of funds, while the former has been drawn down rapidly during thepast several years. As a first move to tap the local capital market thegovernment has successfully floated two moderate-sized local loans (in-cluded in the figure for total loans), one of £1.7 million in 1957 andanother of £1 million in mid-1958. Moderate-sized local loans have alsobeen floated by several quasi-public enterprises whose operations are notincluded in the territorial budget, notably the Land Bank and the MakondeWater Corporation. An application was made to the United States in 1957for loans from the Development Loan Fund for three schemes of irrligationand road construction totaling over £1 million, but no final action hasbeen taken. The only United States financial assistance thus far has beena grant by the I.C.A. of £100,000 to the African Productivity Loan Fund.

101. The bulk of the C.D.&W. grants are for projects due to be completedby the end of 1960. The United Kingdom recently announced a new appropria-tion for colonial development grants on the expiration of the currentC.D.tW. Act in 1960 (White Paper, Cmd. 672, February 1959). The plans

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to the colonies as a wholeenvisage a further appropriation for C.D.tW. grants/of £95 million through1964 and also a new form of assistance through "exchequer" loans (directgovernmental loans) within a total of £100 million over the same period.Such loans would be additional to amounts which colonies may be able toraise on the London market.

102. Not included in the funds listed in paragraph 99 above are invest-ments in the territory by the United Kingdom Colonial Development Corpora-tion, and the IBRD loan of £8 million to the East African Railways andHarbours Administration, of which a portion may be attributed to Tangan-yikats requirements, and loans raised by the East African Posts and Tele-communications Administration.

OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT PLANS

103. Beginning in 1946, the Government of Tanganyika has formulated aseries of Development Plans covering varying periods, which have beenofficially described as modest capital works programs. These plans haveundergone numerous revisions to take into account changing costs, alteredpriorities, and other factors. Subject to the limit imposed by foresee-able financing, the plans have apparently been drawn up separately byeach Ministry and little has been done to consider them as an integratedwhole, although a concept of broad priorities in regional and sectoraldevelopment is reflected in them. The Finance Ministry is now consider-ing the establishment of a special economic unit to review all the indi-vidual programs or projects from the point of view of their inter-relation-ship and consistency and to advise the Government on the implementation ofthe program.

104. The current development plan (Four-Year Plan, 1957/58 - 1960/61),within the general framework of which the annual capital budget is pre-pared, was drawn up by a special Advisory Development Committee. In viewof anticipated difficulties of financing the territorial budget on bothcapital and current account, the Committee was specifically requested torevise those parts of the previous plan (Revised Five-Year DevelopmentPlan 1955-60) relating to economic services - with particular referenceto the natural resources section - with a view to procuring the fastestpossible increase in productivity and production.

105. The Four-Year Plan calls for average annual expenditure of £6.7million as compared with about £5 million in the Five-Year Plan which itsuperseded, allocated as follows-

£

Development of natural resources 4,873,000Communications 4,232,000Urban development 3,697,000Electricity 2,000,000Social Services

Medical 1,460,o000Education 4,284,000Broadcasting and films 65,oo0

Public buildings 4k,430,000African urban housing 1,148,000Miscellaneous 712,000

Total £26,901,000

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Actual capital expenditure during 1957/58, the first year of the periodcovered by the Four-Year Plan, was £5.4 million as compared with the budgetestimate for that year of £6.6 million and the annual average of £6.7 mil-lion implied by the Plan. It was, however, the highest rate of public in-vestment achieved in the territory in a single year.

106.. As compared with the preceding plan, the share of communications(mainly road construction) in the Four-Year Plan was sharply reduced whilethat of public buildings was substantially increased; the shares of naturalresources development and of education remained roughly unchanged. Theallocation of actual capital expenditures by sectors during the past severalyears is shown in Table 23. Expenditures on communications have been de-clining steadily, while the share of social services and public works hasrisen sharply, followed by expenditure on natural resources and townshipdevelopment.

TEN-YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 1955-65

107. The various plans referred to above have been formulated on a"realistic" basis, in the sense of being within the resources expectedto be available to the territory, including United Kingdom grants andloans to be placed on the London market. In 1956 a more ambitious Ten-Year Capital Requirements Program, 1955-65, was formulated in responseto recommendations contained in the East African Royal Commissionts1953-55 Report. In contrast with previous plans, the Ten-Year Plan, inthe words of the Governor, was drawn up "to show what could and shouldbe effected during the next ten years if finances were available.""Foreseeable" financing was assumed to cover only about half of the re-quirements. Details of the Ten-Year Plan, 1955-65 are given in Appendix 1,together with explanatory material contained in a despatch by the Governor.

108. The Ten-Year Plan envisaged a total expenditure of £95.7 million,of which some £48 million was considered to be covered by foreseeable fi-nancing. For planning purposes the expenditure was divided into two five-year periods; the total requirements for the first five-year period aver-aged £8 million per year as compared with £6.7 million under the Four-YearPlan. A more realistic comparison, perhaps, is between the average actualcapital expenditure during the years 1956/57 and 1957/58 - about £5.3 mil-lion - rand the £8 million figure of the Ten-Year Plan.

109. The main elements of the proposed expenditure under the Ten-YearPlan are as follows:

Provision Additionalanticipated funds required Total

£ £ £Communications 12,670,000 24AQ00Q00o 36,770,000Natural resources 11,200,000 5,950,000 17,150,000Mineral development 250,000 750,000 1,000,000Urban development 7,585,000 3,500,000 U1,085,000Electricity and power 2,000,000 3,000,000 5,000,000Topographical survey - 500,000 500,000Public works 4,450,000 5,500,000 9,950,000Social services 8,793,000 3,550,000 12,343,000Agricultural and industrial loans 1,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000

Total 47,948,000 47,850,000 95,798,000

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The most striking difference from the pattern of allocation in the Four-Year Plan is the higher share of communications; this seems to be duelargely to the fact that during the second period of the Ten-Year Planprojected expenditure on communication rises sharply.

110. In the field of transport and communications, the Ten-Year Planincludes provision for the extension of the Central Line to the KilomberoValley in the south and for a link between the Northern and Central Lines.Not included is the capital development program of the East African Rail-ways and Harbours Administration (£14 million for the period 1958-62) whichcovers both specific works to be undertaken in Tanganyika and general ex-penditure on rolling stock, etc., for the system as a whole. A comparablecapital program on an East African basis is also envisaged by the inter-territorial Posts and Telecommunications Administration amounting to £8million.

111. The projected expenditures on water supplies and irrigation covertwo phases: (i) surveys and pilot schemes, and (ii) the beginning ofconstruction of substantial permanent works. In its present form thePlan does not contain provision for a large-scale development of theRufiji basin, which, as noted above, appears to be the major area forpotential agricultural development. The United Nations Visiting Missionof 1957 expressed the hope that the period of surveying and pilot projectsconcerning water supplies was coming to an end and that a general plan forthe utilization of all irrigation facilities would be prepared and executed.In reply, however, the government stated its opinion that it was too earlyto talk of such a general plan, let alone prepare and execute it. It fore-saw the need for further work on hydrology and irrigation economics, andthe progressive development of a scheme over a number of years. It addedthat the development of the Rufiji basin alone would, at an approximateand conservative figure, require £25,000,000.

112. Taking into account the projected expansion of investment insocial services and road construction particularly, it was estimated thatat the end of the ten-year period the additional charge against the cur-rent budget for teachers' salaries, medical staff, road maintenance andthe like would be about £5 million per year. When presenting the Ten-YearPlan early in 1956, the government foresaw the possibility that, if weak-ness in commodity prices persisted, some external help in meeting currentas well as eapital expenditure might be needed for a period. In view ofthe actual and projected expansion of the social services and maintenancecharges, a question for further investigation is whether such a tendencymight not have emerged even in the absence of the slump in commodity prices.

AP4SNDIX 1

Capital Requirements Programme " 1955-65

In 1956 the Governor of Tanganyika published bis observationson the East African Royal Commission's report, including a Ten-YearCapital Requirements Programme indicating the financial implicationsof the recommendations made by the Royal Commission./ The followingmaterial is extracted from the Gcvernor's obeervatftaia.

I. General Observations

Land Use

To advance standards of living the changeover from subsistenceto economic agriculture must be accelerated and spread. The need isto overcome the physical obstacles of environment, and the human obstaclewhich is the suspicion and conservatism of the African farmer. Theproblems are technical, financial and not least administrative.

The Agricultural Department has over the years built up consider-able knowledge of the agronomy of cash crops under local conditions but,by reason both of the African attitude governed by native law and customtowards land and of lack of resources, knowledge of the soil and itsoptimum management under intensive farming has still to be acquired. Itcannot yet be said with any confidence by what means the long bushfallow can be obviated.

Work is of course going on. In each district an inventory ofland in terms of population densities and land use is being compiledand checked. Provincial agricultural officers are compiling and assess-ing ecological data upon which to base agricultural policy for eachecological area. The 1955-60 development plan includes provision fora land use survey and planning unit within the Department of Agriculture.Its function will be to carry out basic land use surveys of selectedareas in co-operation with other Departments concerned with land use.The areas selected may be either large, covering whole catchments, orsmall with a high potential intensive use.

There are some important land usage schemes, and many of lesserimportance, which are already in varying stages of execution from surveyto settlement. Those to which the Commission refer, the Rufiji BasinSurvey which continues to be assisted by the Food and Agriculture

%/ United Kingdom, Despatches from the Governor of Kenya,Uganda and Tanganyika and from the Administrator, East African HighCommission, commenting on the East Africa Royal'Commission 1953-55Report (H.r.S.O., London 1956), Cmd. 9801, pp. 157-180.

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Organisation, and the Tenant Farming Schemes at Nachingwea, Urambo andKongwa which under the direction of the Tanganyika Agricultural Corpora-tion are achieving initial successes, are among others to which highhopes are attached.

In all this work research, of which there is now a substantialbody both regional and territorial, has a big part to play. I am satis-fied that there is building up a close liaison both among the variousresearch agencies and between them and the executive Departments. Toassist and develop this liaison to the greatest possible extent therehas recently been appointed in Tanganyika an extra Assistant Director ofAgriculture to give exclusive attention to research. The techniques ofthe "agrarian revolution" must be worked out on the ground and I am atone with the Commission in attaching importance to the perfecting of thetwo-way traffic between field and laboratory and of the co-ordination ofall the many channels which are now involved.

In considering the administrative or human aspect it is necessaryto keep in the forefront of one's mind that the idea of the continuousintensive cultivation of the same land is, broadly speaking, foreign tothe African. It is, therefore, not a matter for surprise when hostilityis manifested against soil conservation measures which involve hard workor against a progressive individual whose modern methods and machinerymay exclude shifting cultivators from a stretch of land which they hadreckoned to "mine" in their own good time. The problem is everywherehow to win the co-operation of cultivators and herdsr,aen, to "make theagrarian revolution their own", as the Commission aptly put it. Thougha necessary step, it is not enough to gain the understanding and co-operation, however enthusiastic, of the Native Authorities; it isessential to carry conviction to the men and women who actually do thework. Small demonstrations, coupled with travelling bush schools,applied to an area no larger than the staff available can closelysupervise, will with patient perseverance lead to a climate of opinionin which the majority will approve sanctions for a laggard or ill-disposed minority. If there is any other technique for the effectiveuse of either persuasion or compulsion it has not been found inTanganyika.

To sum up, there is in Tanganyika very considerable scope forimproved land use, and it is by no means impossible for there to be agradual and spreading changeover from subsistence to economic farming.Land, including that which can be provided with water and be rid oftsetse, is available in quantity. The speed with which the changeoverwill be accomplished will largely depend on the quantity and quality ofthe professional and administrative staff which is applied to the task.The scientific and engineering work now known to be required is far morethan the existing and foreseeable professional staff can undertake.There is moreover a vital need to divert time and energy into the train-ing of Africans, not only that they may be taught the developing technol-ogy but that they may be taught also how to administer it with integrity.

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The second need is that of finance. I anticipate that theapplication of private capital will in future be confined to a fewlimited areas from which the maximum output can best be obtained bylarge scale enterprise experienced in the production and processing ofa particular product. Credit for peasant cultivators may later becomea heavy Government responsibility but I am not able to take account ofit here. The finance which Government will certainly have to find isthat for the carrying out of land usage surveys and associated investi-gations, the construction of irrigation and water control works, andthe establishment of planned settlement schemes. I estimate that overthe next ten years some V17 million should be employed for these partic-ular purposes, including therein a small allowance for the accelerationof the topographical survey of the territory which is consequentlynecessary. I must here make it plain however that the figure of f17million is not a maximum in that no limit can be fixed to the amount ofmoney which could be spent in ten years with at least short term benefiton water development. While major irrigation works can only be plannedand executed over long periods there is immediate, and one may sayinfinite, scope for small dam and hafir building, and there is a schoolof thought which would welcome that line of attack if the funds wereavailable. Of the f17 million, my Government does not at present expectto be able to raise more than fll million.

Communications

Communications must precede not follow development; for withoutadequate connection between producer and market there can be no change-over from subsistence to economic farming. Of all the Commission'sthemes this in my opinion is the one that touches Tanganyika the closest.

Tanganyika is approximately 725 miles from north to south and 660miles from east to west. Within its 362,688 square miles the pockets offertility, some of them mountainous, are scattered and separated by longstretches of inhospitable country.

The German administration laid down at the beginning of the centurythe Central Line from Dar es Salaam to Lake Tanganyika and the Tanga lineto the Northern Province, and the beginnings of a road system. During theperiod of the mandate between the wars, the British administration main-tained these lines of communication throughout the trade recession andimproved them within the limits of the exiguous financial resources thenavailable. Since the last war considerable and successful efforts havebeen made to improve and add to the original framework.

Even so, of the zones in Tanganyika which have a "fair prospect"of 30 inches of rainfall annually, none but the lake shores of Mwanza andKigoma and the coastal areas served by the Tanga, Central and SouthernProvince lines is in actual contact with a railway. The much larger zonesin the north-west and south-wiest have to depend on long distance feederroads some of which are still not up to all-weather standards.

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As you know, the rising costs of railway construction have post-poned and seem likely to continue to postpone the building of a north-south rail link across Tanganyika connecting the Tanga and Kenya/Ugandasystem with the Central Line, and the latter with the Rhodesian system.Present plans in this respect provide only for building a short middlesection in the form of a branch line from Morogoro southwards to thehead of the Kilombero Valley, a distance of 200 miles. It is hoped thatthe first 100 miles, which will serve an area open to immediate develop-ment, will be built in the near future. If the second hundred miles canthen be built it will lead into the Kilombero Valley itself. The exten-sion of the line from the Valley up the Iringa escarpment to the top ofthe Southern Highlands plateau is a desirable but, I fear, more remotedevelopment. I hope, however, that within the nextten years it may bepossible to fill in the gap between Morogoro and Korogwe so linking theCentral Line with the Tanga and Kenya/Uganda system, and also to makesome extension of the Southern Province railway.

The present road programme provides for bringing up to all-weather standard a grid system of four north-south crossed by threeeast-west trunk roads. The north-south roads are the coastal road fromMombasa to Mtwara, the Great North Road from Nairobi to Tunduma, thecentral road from Lake Victoria to Lake Nyasa and the western road fromthe Uganda boundary following the shores of Lake Tanganyika down toAbercorn. The three east-west roads run inland from Tanga, Dar es Salaamand Mtwara respectively. For the most part these roads will be broughtto the standard of first-class gravel roads. They will be sealed withbitumen only where and when traffic densities make it economical to doso.

When these proposals are carried out all the thirty-inch rainfallreliability areas will be brought into touch with the main road and railnetwork of the territory.

While Tanganyika is better served with four ocean ports than Kenyaand Uganda with one, it is necessary to ensure that we keep abreast ifnot ahead of the traffic. Dar es Salaam's hinterland includes the south-eastern Congo. The current congestion at Mombasa has extcnded the hinter-land of Tanga and Dar es Salaam, whether temporarily or not, to Kenya/Uganda and Uganda respectively. Assuming that the Royal Commission'srecommendations do accelerate the expansion of the economy, and allowingfor mineral development in western Tanganyika, it seems likely that with-in the next ten years the lighterage wharf at Tanga will have to bematerially enlarged and the three deep water berths now completing in Dares Salaam may have to be doubled to six. Such expansion of these two portswould be additional to works already in contemplation by the East AfricanRailways and Harbours Administration.

The estimated cost of all these improvements is f37 million. Asat present foreseen the finance which can be put to the purpose over thenext ten years is f12M million.

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Education

The Commission see the aim as the provision of universal educa-tion up to the intermediate stage in the country and up to the end ofthe intermediate stage in towns. It is vitally important that it shouldbe understood by everyone that the enormous expenditure involved inproviding education is pushing that objective further and further intothe future. The present position in Tanganyika is that the limitationof finance necessitates greater concentration during the next five yearson intermediate, secondary and technical education and the reduction inrate of expansion in primary education, save possibly in the towns.These measures, which I think are in conformity with the Commission'sviews, are intended by 1961 to quadruple the number of pupils passingthe School Certificate and to increase substantially the supply of skilledlabour. But it must be realised that even so the number of pupils passingSchool Certificate will not exceed h00-500 in that year and the output ofreally skilled labour is unlikely to meet the demand.

As technical education is so important I will briefly outline theGovernment's programme. The Trade School at Ifunda is now properly staff-ed and equipped and showing every promise of success. A second GovernmentTrade School is now under construction at Moshi, where the KilimanjaroNative Co-operative Union is also erecting a commercial school. A thirdTrade School is planned to be placed in the Lake Province at a later stage.The building of a Technical Institute to provide courses in engineering,building, commerce, domestic science and general academic subjects for 750pupils of all races is about to begin in Dar es Salaam. This Intitutewill provide the highest technical training available within the territory.It is very much to be hoped that these institutions will from the beginningsucceed in inculcating the true spirit and standard of craftsmanship andthat the doubts of the Commission about the adaptability of the apprentice-ship system to African conditions will not discourage employers fromcontinuing to give a fair trial to the system which has been so importanta feature of the industrial strength of more advanced countries. *Mentionmust also be made of the Royal Technical College in Nairobi to whichselected students will be sent to prepare for professional qualifications,and which is due to open, with Tanganyika students in attendance, in Marchof this year.

Because the fundamental impediment to the expansion of educationis its recurrent cost, it is unavoidable that school fees for all levelsof education and for all communities should be raised so far as this canbe done without leading to any falling off in school enrolments and attend-ances. In this context it will probably be necessary for some years tocome to continue the practice of remitting a substantial proportion of thefees for girls, though there are signs that resistance to the education ofgirls is beginning to yield.

Bearing in mind the recurrent liability it is not practicable toembark on a heavy programme for the construction of educational buildings

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and in this review estimated expenditure for this purpose over the nextten years is limited to f8 million, a figure which does not of courseinclude such buildings as the voluntary agencies may be able to undertake.Unfortunately building costs continue to rise and as a consequence ofthis and the need to get the maximum capacity from the funds available,schools are now being built to minimum standards compatible with townshipbuilding regulations, reasonable efficiency and the avoidance of highmaintenance costs.

Finance

As the Commission so wisely remarks, what is important is not thatthere should be development plans but that there should be capitalresources available to promote expansion. I am the first to acknowledgethat this territory has received valuable financial assistance fromexternal sources, but it has to be stated that the continuing drop inthe value of money has frequently resulted in the real value of the assist-ance being less than was intended at the time it was granted. I am mind-ful that good things come to those who help themselves but I think thatTanganyika has, if not over-exerted itself, at least exerted itself to thelimit of its present meagre resources to provide from within capital fordevelopment. It is forcibly argued here that the level of taxation hasbeen raised at a time when the economy of the territory would have benefitedfrom a reduction in taxation. Be that as it may, it cannot be disputedthat any further increase in the level of taxation can only be harmful. Imust also make the point that in an agrarian country, the revenue of whichis at the mercy not only of unstable prices for agricultural produce butalso of the vagaries of the weather, the surplus balances in the Treasuryshould not be so reduced as to jeopardise payment for essential serviceswhen a large fall in revenue is temporarily suffered.

It was against this background that my Government prepared itsrecently published capital works programme for the five year period endingin 1960. It was necessarily a modest prgramme with an estimated cost off26 million. Even so the foreseeable finance falls short of that figureby f2l million. This programme does not measure up to the demands of theCommission's Report, and an expanded programme has therefore been drawnup to show what could and should be effected during the next ten years iffinance were available.

This expanded programme, which is set out in the Annexure in theform of a Schedule with notes attached, covers the ten years from now until1965 and includes all that has been set forth in the published 1955-60 plan.As I have said, the latter has an estimated cost of f26 million. Theexpanded programme has an estimated cost of fh2 million for the five yearsand f96 million for the ten years, against which the foreseeable finance isf24 million and fh8 million respecti,Tely. Of the total of f 96 rciillion morethan one-third, or f37 million, is for comnuni6ations. f1(9 million is iorexnen.iture upon natural resources inclurding water and minerals, fll millionon urban development, f5 million on nower, ancl £2 Million on agricultural

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and industrial loans. It is significant that not more than f12 million,of which f8 million will be for education, can be allocated to thosesocial services which will not give an immediate return in economicactivity although they are essential for the attainment of the increasedstandards of efficiency required for further development. I wish verymuch that the expenditure of flO million on departmental buildings andstaff houses could have been reduced but I am satisfied that anything lesswould be unrealistic and would only result in inability to carry out theprogramme.

The question must be faced whether, if the capital finance is madeavailable for the expanded programme, the resulting increased recurrentcosts can be met. In the long run, when the development expenditurebecomes fully effective, I have no doubt that they can. There will how-ever be an intermediate period when many of the schernes proposed may notbe fully viable and it will be some considerable time before the education-al investment brings return. To what extent and for how long the economicschemes will not be fully viable, and the time which will elapse beforethey will be able to carry the enhanced social programme as well, willdepend on the trend of word agricultural prices. The trend at the momentis unfavourable to an agricultural economy and should it persist someexternal help in meeting recurrent commitments may also be needed for aperiod. If, however, prices for our main exports stabilise at a reason-able level, I am confident that any period for which such assistance wasneeded would be short.

I have endeavoured to set out as concisely as I can the implicationsof the Royal Commission's Report as applied to Tanganyika. I am naturallyfar from content at the sum of my conclusion, which is that if we are notto resign ourselves to half measures there has to be found within the nextten years fh8 million which in the ordinary course as I see it will not beavailable to this Government, and this takes no account of what the HighCommission requires for its services, including the development programmesof the East African Railways and Harbours and Posts and TelecommunicationsAdministrations.

ESTIMATED CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS 1955-65

TotalPeriod 1955-60 Period 1960-65 Additional Total

___________ __________Require- AdditionalProvided in Total Total ments for Require-

HEAD Develop- Balance Require- Provision Balance Require- 10 years ment byment Plan Required ments Anticipated Required ments 1955-65 Heads1955-60 Cols. 3 and 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

f f f f f f fA. COMMUNICATIONS

1. Railways . 3,000,000 - 3,000,000 _ 9,000,000 9,000,OOL 9,000,0002. Harbours . .- 2,500,000 2,500,000 - 3,000,000 3,000,000 5,500,0003. Roads . . . . 4,270,000 3,800,000 8,070,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 10,000,000 8,800,0004. Aerodromes . .200,000 600,000 800,000 200,000 200,000 400,000 800,000

24,100,000

B. NATURAL RESOURCES1. ,griculture and Veterinary 1,200,000 800,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 3,000,000 1,800,0002. Water Supplies and Irrigation 3,500,000 1,500,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 6,ooo,000 3,500,0003. Afforestation .250,000 150,000 400,000 250,000 500,000 750,000 650,000

5,950,000

C. MINERAL DEVELOPMENT . . . - 250,000 250,000 250,000 500,000 750,000 750,000750,000

D. URBAN DEVELOPMENT1. Water Supplies .2,450,000 1,000,000 3,450,000 2,000,000 500,000 2,500,000 1,500,0002. Se-4erage and Surface Drainage 525,000 500,000 1,025,000 1,000,000 500,000 1,500,000 1,000,0003. African Urban Housing . . 970,000 - 970,000 - 500,000 500,000 500,0004. Miscellaneous .140,000 - 140,000 200,000 - 200,000 -

5. Site Development (Industrial) 100,000 200,000 300,000 200,000 300,000 500,000 500,0003,500,000

E. ELECTRICITY AND POWER . . . . 2,000,000 - 2,000,000 - 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3.000,0003,000,000

F. TOPOGRAPHICAL SURVEY . . . . - 250,000 250,000 - 250,000 250,000 500,000500,000

G. PUBLIC WORKS1. Staff Housing .1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,0002. Government Buildings . . . 950,000 1,000,000 1,950,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000

5,500,000

H. SOCIAL SERVICES1. Medical Buildings . . . 1,400,000 800,000 2,200,000 1,750,000 500,000 2,250,000 1,300,0002. Education Buildings . . . 3,793,000 - 3,793,000 1,750,000 2,250,000 4,000,000 2,250,0003. Broadcasting .100,000 - 100,000 - - -

3,550,000

I. AGRICULTURAL AND INDUSTRIALLOANS . . . . . . . . - 500,000 500,000 1,000,000 500,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 i,O O,O O

1,000,000

TOTAL . 25,848,000 15,850,000 41,698,000 22,100,000 132,000,0001 54,100,000 47,850, 000 47,5000

-. 9 -

III. Notes on the Capital Requirements Programme for 1955-65

The suggested capital requirements for this ten year period havebeen divided into those needed during the first five years and thoseneeded in the second five years. It will be noted that the periodsrelate to Government financial years, i.e. from 1st July to 30th June.

It is calculated that during the first period a total sum off41-2 million, including the expenditure of f25 3/4 million forecastunder the 1955-60 Development Plan, can be spent. Towards this amountof f412l million, f232 million is expected to become available, the short-fall for the years 1955-60 amounting to £18 million. It is expected thatduring the second period 1960-65, 254 million is required, towards which£22 million is likely to become available from normal sources leaving ashortfall of £32 million. Thus, for the whole ten-year period the totaldeficit in funds amounts to approximately f50 million.

The Plan has been drawn up for the fulfilment of only the mosturgent projects for the welfare and economic progress of the territory.It is within the works capacity of the territory, not necessarily as thatcapacity stands at present, but on the assumption that during the next fewyears the capacity can be considerably augmented. There would, in fact,be no difficulty about augmenting works capacity provided that it wasreasonably certain that a large programme loomed ahead.

It is difficult to calculate the recurrent expenditure that mayresult from the undertaking of this proposed programme. As regards rail-ways, it must be accepted that during the second period 1960-65 and forsome years thereafter, the railways projects may not be fully economic,but the degree to which any losses may devolve either from Governmentitself or upon the users of the railways is uncertain. As regards harbours,it is judged that the users of the ports will be the bearers of theincreased cost and that Government itself is not likely to be saddled withany recurrent burdens. It is also difficult to estimate the amount ofadditional recurrent expenditure which will result from the road programmeenvisaged but a reasonably close figure may be £750,000 per annum at theend of the ten year period.

Turning to the other heads, it is clear that there will also be aconsiderable burden of recurrent expenditure arising particularly fromthe capital expenditure on social services, which may amount to approximately10 per cent. of the total, i.e. El- million. In other cases there shouldbe little or no recurrent burden after the first few years. For instance,water supplies and a great deal of the urban development will be paid forby the consumers and ratepayers. At a very rough calculation it is suggestedthat the additional recurrent burden at the end of the ten year period mayamount to as much as f5m. per annum, but world prices of crops will have amarked effect on the viability, or otherwise, within the period, of a numberof the NTatural Resources Schemes.

A. Communications

(1) Railways. - The only items which have been inserted for Rail-ways and Harbours projects are for those works which are not alreadyincluded in the Development Plan of the E.A.R. & H. and exclude expendi-ture on such works as the re-ballasting or re-alignment of either theCentral Line or the Tanga Line, the provision of additional facilities onthe Lakes, the building of a new railway station in Dar es Salaam, andthe removal of the M4echanical Workshops to Morogoro. In the first periodthe only railway project which has been included is that for the extensionof the Central Line to the northern end of the Kilombero Valley on theassumption that a large sugar undertaking will begin operations there. Itshould be noted that included in the f9 million for the second period isprovision for the extension of that railway to the head waters of theKilombero Valley; for it is reasonable to assume that during the nextfive years sufficient progress will have been made with agricultural andhydrological services to provide the necessary data for the developmentof that area. The second project which is included is in respect of theKorogwe-Morogoro or Korogwe-Kilosa link for which it is estimated that asum of nearly f6 million will be required. While at the present timethere is no prospect of an economic return for a link between the Tangaand Central Lines, it is felt that within the ten year period there islikely to be a demand for such a link not only on administrative groundsbut also in order to open out the country which would be traversed bysuch a railway.

(2) Harbours. - The problem of the development of the port of Dares Salaam and the question of how many additional deep water berths willbe required within the next decade is a peculiarly difficult one. Theestimate of the E.A.R. & H. Administration, which has to some extent beenconfirmed by the Report of the Economist Intelligence Unit, is that therewill be a 5 per cent. cumulative increase in the traffic passing throughthe port. It can therefore be deduced that with the three deep waterberths now being built and the lighterage facilities available, no addition-al new work will be required for some years and the port capacity, whichtheoretically could amount to 1,500,000 tons per annum, will be sufficientfor some time. Nevertheless, there are serious factors which can bebrought to bear in argument against this view. In the first place thereare indications that traffic trends may be much greater than those atpresent calculated by the E.A.R. & H. Administration. During the past sixyears - which is admittedly a very short period - there has been, exclusiveof bulk oil traffic, a cumulative increase of 92- per cent. per annum. Itis considered also that if the development of the territory quickens throughthe provision of new capital and the gradual implementation of the Reportof the Royal Commission, traffic in both imports and exports will verymaterially increase. It would not be unreasonable to assume a cumulativeincrease of 72 per cent. per annum. In this assumption it has been takeninto account that the Belgian traffic will increase very considerably bothin respect of imports and exports. On this basis the amount of cargo,exclusive of bulk oils, which would require handling by 1965 would be

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1,675,000 tons. As this is an hypothetical exercise no firm reliancecan be placed on these figures.

Nevertheless, there are many other factors which have to beconsidered in assessing the future of Dar es Salaam port. It is calcu-lated that with a struggle as much as 750,000 tons of cargo can behandled by lighterage, but this is a wasteful and uneconomic method ofhandling cargo and experience shows that even with the fleet availableat present there are inevitable delays and difficulties. Lighterageneeds a great deal of additional labour and many units of the lighteragefleet will before long require replacement. It is probably not prudentto calculate that more than 600,000 tons per annum can be handled bylighterage rmethods and an additional 600,000 tons handled at the threedeep water berths now under construction. In this connection it shouldbe noted that it will not always be possible for the Belgian berth to beused to its full capacity. An additional three deep water berths wouldadd to the capacity of the port some 675,000 tons, giving a total of1,875,000 tons which will be more than the capacity which appears to berequired. In that event the lighterage fleet could, if necessary, bereduced. For the foregoing reasons it is calculated that at least threeadditional deep water berths will be required in the next ten years andthat it may be necessary to start a fourth. Provision has been made asshown in the Schedule for the building of the first three. It would belogical and economical to continue building operations as soon as theexisting three berths are completed, in which case the additional threeenvisaged would probably be completed by about 1962. If at that datethere was spare capacity in the port, the lighterage facilities could bereduced and, in fact, may have to be reduced unless replacements are made.

It is estimated that the cost of the three berths will be approxi-mately f4 million, of which f2,500,000 will be needed in the first period.In addition, provision is made for increasing the capacity of Tanga portduring the second period at the cost of aporoximately fl million byextensions to the existing lighterage wharf and the erection of additionalsheds on the quayside.

There are two smaller items which are nevertheless of great import-ance. The first is an estimated provision of f300,000, for the removalof the port facilities at N4wanza from their existing site to a new sitea short distance to the south. The port installations cannot be extendedon the existing site which is extremely cramped. The rebuilding of theport at Mwanza South would provide Mwanza with far better facilities andallow of the release of the existing port area for extremely valuable build-ing sites. Lastly, provision is made for a sum of f200,000 for the buildingof a small port at Ikombe on Lake Nyasa. A recent survey by Messrs. Halerowat this Government's request has finally disposed of any hopes of buildingup the existing port at Itunge. The consultants have advised that a newport should be constructed on the north-east corner of the Lake at Ikombe.The need for a good outlet over Lake Nyasa for the produce of the TukuVuand Mbeya districts has been felt for a long time. The INyasaland Railways

- 12 M

intend to increase the capacity of their fleet on the Lake and it isthrought that advantage should be taken of this improved economictransport.

(3) Roads. - Unless additional capital funds are obtainable itwill not be possible within the next ten years to complete the projectedprogramme to bring the roads system of the territory up to the requiredstandard and in particular it will not be possible to provide sufficientmoney for the construction of roads to newly developed areas.

A careful programme has been tentatively worked out, the detailsof which are shown in the Road Programme. The first objective is tocomplete the main system of roadways, which is in fact a grid systemconsisting of four main roads running from north to south and three fromeast to west across the territory. To accomplish this several millionsof pounds will be required, as in some cases these roads do not existand in others they only exist to a very poor standard frequently impassableduring wet periods. The second objective in the programme is to providebituminous stretches primarily on these main roads where traffic densitieswarrant them. In fact, it is expected that within this programme anadditional four hundred miles of bituminous roadway should be constructed.The third objective is to bring the township roads up to the requisitestandard, particularly in the high density areas where there is a greatbacklog of work to be undertaken. Fourthly, large sums must be providedfor the improvement to district roads and minor roads in order that thesecan be brought up to a reasonable standard so that both local produce andimported consumer goods may easily reach their respective markets. Lastly,but by no means least, a very large sum of over f2 million is set asidefor the provision of roads to new productive areas whether of agricultural,mineral or industrial nature.

The Plan envisages a total expenditure of f18 million for the tenyear period. The programme is realistic and capable of being undertakenwithin the period. Not only has capacity increased both of the PublicWorks Department itself and of contractors, but the experience gained dur-ing the past decade has shown that reasonable roads can be constructed toa good gravel standard at no great cost and with no very great delay. Therecurrent implications are not inconsiderable and will probably rise toabout f750,000 per annum by 1965 in addition to existing expenditure.

(h) Aerodromes. - The territory is moderately well served withaerodromes at the present time and has a number of aerodromes up toInternational F. standard, i.e. capable of taking Dakotas. It is notthought likely that in the next ten year period many aerodromes capableof taking large aircraf will be required. At such places as Tanga andTabora, however, aerodromes for heavier aircraft will probably be requiredand provision has been made in the Paln for these extensions.

In addition there are still a number of airfields which require tobe brought up to full Dakota standard and many more which will be neededfor the servicing of smaller planes.

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B. Natural Resources

The estimated expenditure on the development of natural resourcesincluded in the 1955-60 Development Plan represents the maximum sum thatcan be made available, not the sum which can be expended to advantage.These estimates have since been re-examined in the light of the RoyalCommission Report and account has also been taken of possibilities whichhave in the meantime received further study.

Land Use. - It has for some time been apparent that a systematicapproach to research into soil management was necessary, more particularlyin relation to the agronomy of rotational cropping. It was hoped thatthis research would be largely financed from the C.D. & W. Central ResearchAllocation and would be closely associated with land use surveys. Thisresearch programme was considered essential to the development of inten-sive settled cultivation, a pre-requisite to the system of individualland tenure recommended by the Commission. Unfortunately, it is now knownthat little, if any, assistance will be forthcoming from the CentralResearch Allocation.

The sum of f200,000 earmarked for land use surveys has thereforebeen increased by another f200,000 for the establishment of the requisiteagricultural research stations to form one comprehensive scheme which willcost f4Oo,000 in capital and recurrent costs up to 1960.

Planned Settlement Schemes. - It is still not certain at what ratethis form of development can wisely be undertaken but as investigationsproceed, considerable potentialities become apparent. The fl,000,000already earmarked for this purpose has been increased by an additional£500,000.

Veterinary. - The livestock industry is, of course, provided forunder the above headings but there are, in addition, two special require-ments in respect of which sufficient information is now available toestimate more precise needs.

The first is for more facilities to train Veterinary Assistants sothat an adequate cadre can be built up in a reasonable time. It is accord-ingly proposed to double the Veterinary Training School at Mpwapwa at acost of f20,000.

The second requirement relates to East Coast Fever and other tick-borne diseases. It has now been established that these diseases are thelimiting factor in livestock development in many under-stocked areas, andexperience with the Iringa Dipping Scheme has shown that they can becontrolled under local conditions at a reasonable cost. It is accordinglyproposed to embark upon a continuing programne of dip construction in areaswhere surveys point to the need for dipping, and capital expenditure atf20,000 per annum is envisaged. f80,000 will thus be required for thispurpose up to 1960.

Water Supplies and Irrigation are the key to the greatestpotential field of development in the country and once the initialdifficulties have been overcome and pilot schemes are working success-fully, the rate of development is likely to be rapid. At the same time,hydrographic surveys in progress point to the need for improving the waterregime in many catchments by the provision of storage dams on rivers tocheck the wet season flow and augment the dry season flow. Once therequisite surveys have been completed considerable funds will be repuiredfor construction. Accordingly fl: million has been added to the f3Fmillion already provided for these purposes.

Afforestation. - There is now every indication that, given therequisite funds, the Forest Department will be in a position to undertakean annual planting in excess of that for which provision has already beenmade. The importance of making the best use of forest reserves needs noemphasis. fl50,0O0 is needed in addition to the f250,000 already provided.

It is impossible to make precise estimates of requirements in the1960-65 period but the estimates provided represent the conclusions drawnfrom a careful review of the rate of progress likely to be achieved by1960 and probable requirements in the subsequent quinquennium.

C. Mineral Development

It is considered that the Mineral Exploration Team, mentioned inparagraph 40 of the despatch, has rendered to the mining industry avaluable service in excess of the cost of its operations. Provision hastherefore been made for the continuance of its activities during the nextten years.

D. Urban Development

(1) Water Supolies. - The increasing tempo of urbanization whichhas already taken place and which will doubtless be accelerated during thenext ten years means that in a number of places the township water supplieswill have to be considerably augmented. It is considered that insufficientcapital is likely to be available from normal sources for this purpose dur-ing the next decade. In Dar es Salaam, for instance, it is likely that thenew supply from the Ruvu River which is now being installed at a cost ofapproximately fl2 million may have to be again increased by the provisionof a second pipe-line which may cost a further fl million. Moreover, apartfrom existing townships where supplies are likely to be deficient, it isexpected that several new townships or settlements will spring up whichwill require proper water supplies.

(2) Sewerage and Surface Drainage. - A recent report by the medicalauthorities indicates that sewerage systems will have to be installed inMoshi, Arusha and MIwanza, and it is likely too that further extensions willbe requiredboth in Dar es Salaam and Tanga. The lack of surface drainagein a number of townships has always been a serious problem and additionalsums will be needed for this purpose.

- 15 -

(3) African Urban Housing. - After the proposed African UrbanHousing Company becomes established it should be able to meet itsobligations without any further capital expenditure over and abovethat which is envisaged for the first five year period, but it may wellbe that as demand will exceed supply and the difficulties of establish-ing housing on a purely economic basis will continue, it may be necessaryto inject further capital into the company during the second five yearsand for this purpose a sum of f500,000 has been included in the programme.

E. Electricity

The preliminary estimate by Mr. F. P. Egerton, C.B.E., of the costof electrical development needed before 1963 was f4 million, of which themajor item would be the future development of the Pangani Falls and atransmission line from the Pangani Falls to Dar es Salaam.

Surveys for this scheme are at present being undertaken by Messrs.Balfour Beatty & Co., Ltd., the Electric Supply Companies' consultants,and it is likely that proper estimates will be ready at an early date.These may prove to be slightly in excess of Mr. Egerton's figure.

Whether the finance for this development is provided by the ElectricSupply Companies or by Government (and there would be certain advantagesin this latter alternative), external finance will be needed. The figureof f2 million, which was inserted in the Development Plan, is the amountlikely to be spent before 1960.

F. Topographical Survey

It is evident that progress with the land usage schemes, which areenvisaged, will be retarded unless accurate maps are available. A topo-graphical survey of the territory, mentioned briefly in paragraph 15 ofthe despatch, should be started without delay. Provision has thereforebeen made for as much of this work as it is considered possible to accom-plish during the next ten years.

G. Public Wforks

(1) Staff Housing. - The sum of El million provided in the 1955-60 Development Plan and an amount of fl2 million suggested as being avail-able for the period 1960-65 for Staff Housing are quite inadequate, butit is difficult to see how more could be provided for this purpose in viewof the urgency of other items. Ever since the war there has been a short-age of Staff Housing which still persists in spite of all efforts. Duringthe first few years after the war the difficulties were experienced throughthe lack of staff and building capacity but now and in future years it isthe absence of money which limits the number of houses that can be built.

At the present time there is a shortage of about 150 houses forofficers recruited from overseas and with the development of the territoryenvisaged in this programme steady additional recruitment will be necessary

- 16 -

if the plans are to be fulfilled. In addition, a large number of housesof an inappropriate and obsolete standard require replacement at theearliest possible date. It has to be emphasised also that it is essentialto provide an increasing quantity of Staff Housing for officers notrecruited from outside the territory, particularly in those places whereaccommodation cannot be rented. This applies to all out-stations and anumber of other places. The figure set out of f6 million for a ten-yearperiod is considered to be realistic.

(2) Government Buildings. - As with housing it has not beenpossible to provide sufficient or suitable offices for the Civil Service.In Dar es Salaam there are many buildings of a temporary nature andothers quite inappropriate to the needs of a modern Service. It isintended to replace all these over a period of years and to include inthe programme a new Legislative Council building and a new High Court.When the plans were originally formulated it was estimated that the totalcost would be fl million, but it now is doubtful whether the project canbe completed for under fl2 million. In addition, it is most essential toprovide suitable office accommodation not only to meet the existingdeficiencies in up-country stations, but also to meet the needs of a grow-ing Civil Service. A large number of District Offices, Provincial Head-quarters, County Council buildings, Town Council buildings, Court Housesfor Magistracy, Stores, Workshops and Depots are required.

H. Social Services

(1) Medical Buildings. - The lack of adequate hospitals in theterritory has long been a matter of reproach to Government. Owing tocapital expenditure upon projects which will bring more immediate wealthto the territory it has not been possible to enter upon a full scalebuilding programme of hospitals, and it will be necessary to add to thelikely provision in order that a reasonable programme may be achievedwithin the next ten years. Included in this tentative programme is thecompletion of the large new hospital in Dar es Salaam which is in theprocess of erection, complete newr large-scale units at Mwanza and Tanga,a number of district hospitals, tuberculosis sanatoria, leprosaria andother medical buildings. A large amount of capital expenditure isrequired in order that medical training may be undertaken on a properscale.

(2) Education Buildings. - No additional funds during the firstfive years have been suggested as necessary for there is already a largeprogramme contemplated including the European type school at Iringa anda considerable programme of capital works to be undertaken by theEuropean and Indian Education Authorities in addition to the provision ofmany more schools for African education. It has to be noted that withthe exception of primary schools in urban areas, no provision is includedin this programme for African Primary Education ap this is the responsib-ility of the local authorities.

17

During the second period it is suggested that an additional f24million will be needed over and above the fl 3/4 million which it isexpected can be provided. During this period also it is expected thatmore immediate attention will have to be paid to higher education.

I. Agricultural and Industrial Loans

Apart from the Land Bank and small revolving loan funds - onefor African agricultural projects and the other primarily for Africanindustrial purposes, no forms of Government credit facilities exist.It is thought that during the next ten years it will be essential toincrease the availability of agricultural and industrial loans, and forthis purpose it is suggested that a further fl million will be neededover and above that which can probably be provided from existing sources.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

L ote: More detailed bibliographies on Tanganyika are containedin the following:

Tanganyika: A review of its resources and development.Prepared under the direction of J. F. R. Hill andedited by J. P. Moffett. Tanganyika, 1955. Biblio-graphy, pp. 861-868.

Handbook of Tanganyika, 2nd ed. Edited by J. P. Moffett.Tanganyika, 1958. Bibliography, pp. 567-6777

General Economic Surveys

BARCLAYS BANK, D.C.O. Tanganyika: An economic survey. London, Annual since1954.

TEUBUSCHER, C. Tanganyika Territory: A study of economic policy under man-date. London, Oxford University Press, for Royal Institute of Inter-national Affairs, 1944, pp. 217.

MALCOLM, D. W. Sukumaland: An African people and their country, a study ofland use in Tanganyika. London, Oxford University Press, 1953, pp. 224.

TANGANYIKA. Tanganyika: A review of its resources and their development.Prepared under the direction of J. F. R. Hill and edited by J. P.Moffett. Tanganyika, 1955, pp. 924.

EAST AFRICA ROYAL COMMISSION, 1953-55 Report: (Chairman, Sir Hugh Dow).London, H.M.S.O. 1955, pp. 482 (Cmd. 9475). See also: United Kingdom,Colonial Office. "Land and population in East Africa". London, H.M.S.O.1952 (Colonial No. 290). See also: United Kingdom Colonial Office.tDespatches from the Governors of Kenya, Uganda and Tanganyika and theAdministrator, East Africa High Commission, commenting on the EastAfrica Royal Commission, 1953-1955 report". London, H.M.S.O. 1956. (Cmd.9801).

See also: United Kingdom, Colonial Office. "Commentary on thedespatches from the Governors of Kenya, Uganda and Tanganyika and theAdministrator, East Africa High Commission, on the East Africa Royal Com-mission 1953-1955 Report". London, H.M.S.O. 1956 (Cmd. 9804).

ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT. The Economy of East Africa: A study of trends.Prepared for the East African Railways and Harbours Administration,October, 1955. Nairobi 1956, pp. 237.

ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT. An economic geography of the Commonwealth.Blackie 1957, pp. 296.

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HAIIEY, Lord. An African survey -- revised 1956: A study of problems aris-ing in Africa south of the Sahara. London, Oxford University Press forRoyal Institute of International Affairs, 1957, pp. 1,800 (First pub-lished 1938).

ROBINSON, E. A. G. Report on the needs for economic research and investiga-tion in East Africa. Entebbe, 1955, pp. 26.

UNITED KINGDOM, Board of Trade. British East Africa: Economic and commer-cial conditions in British East Africa (Kenya, Uganda, Tanganyika andZanzibar), April, 1952 by G. T. Dow-Smith. London H.M.S.O. 1953,pp. 156 (Overseas Economic Surveys). An earlier survey was publishedin 1948.

UNITED KINGDOM, Colonial Office. An economic survey of the colonial terri-tories, 1951: Vol. 11 -- The East African territories: Kenya,Tanganyika, Uganda, Zanzibar and the Somaliland Protectorate, withAden, Mauritius and Seychelles, London, H.M.S.O., 1954, pp. 203(Colonial No. 281-2).

UNITED KINGDOM, Colonial Office. Tanganyika under United Kingdom Adminis-tration, 1957 (annual), London, H.M.S.O.

TANGANYIKA. Statistical Abstract, 1958. Dar es Salaam, Government Printer,1958.

EAST AFRICAN STATISTICAL DEPARTMENT. Quarterly Economic and StatisticalBulletin. Nairobi.

TANGANYIKA. Handbook of Tanganyika, 2nd ed. Edited by J. P. Moffett.Tanganyika, 1958.

UNITED NATIONS (Trusteeship Council). Report on Tanganyika by the UnitedNations Visiting Mission to Trust Territories in East Africa, 1957.Document T/1401. New York, 1958.

TANGANYIKA. Monthly Statistical Bulletin. Government Printer, Dar esSalaam.

Government and Constitution

TANGANYIKA. Report of the special commissioner appointed to examine mat-ters arising out of the report of the committee on constitutionaldevelopment. (Commissioner, W. J. M. Mackenzie), Dar es Salaam,Government Printer, 1953, pp. 121.

Population

EAST AFRICAN STATISTICAL DEPARTMENT. African population of TanganyikaTerritory: Geographical and tribal studies, 1948. Nairobi, revisededition, 1953, pp. 89, duplicated.

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TANGANYIKA. Report on the census of the non-native population taken on thenight of 25th February, 1948. Dar es Salaam. Government Printer,1953, pp. 73.

TANGANYIKA. Report on the census of the non-African population taken onthe night of 13th February, 1952. Dar es Salaam, Government Printer,1954, pp. 51

UNITED NATIONS. Department of social affairs. Population division. ThePopulation of Tanganyika. New York, 1949, app. 151. (Reports on thepopulation of trust territories, No. 2.)

See also: United Nations. "Additional information on the popula-tion of Tanganyika". (Supplement to above.) New York, 1953, pp. 32.

KUCZYNSKI, R. R. Demographic survey of the British colonial empire, Vol.II-- South Africa High Commission territories, East Africa, Mauritius,Seychelles. London, Oxford University Press for Royal Institute ofInternational Affairs, 1949, pp. 983.

MARTIN, C. J. A demographic study of an immigrant community: the Indianpopulation of British East Africa. Population Studies, VI, 3, March,1953, pp. 233-47.

MARTIN, C. J. Some estimates of the general age distribution, fertility andrate of natural increase of the African population of British EastAfrica. Population studies VII, 2, November, 1953, pp. 181-99.

Transport

GILLMAN, C. A. Short history of the Tanganyika Railways. Tanganyika Notes,13, June, 1942, pp. 14-56.

TANGANYIKA. Tanganyika transport: A review by J. R. Farquharson, Dar esSalaam, Government Printer, 1945, pp. 96.

Agricultare

BARCLAYS BANK, D.C.O. Tba and coffee, London, 1956, pp. 25.

BARCLAYS BANK, D.C.O. Sisal. London, 1956, pp. 27.

The East African agricultural journal. Nairobi Government Printer for E.A.Agriculture and Forestry Research Organization. Quarterly sinceJuly,1953.

East African farmer and planter. Nairobi, D. A. Hawkins, Ltd., monthlysince October, 1956.

EAST AFRICAN STATISTICAL DEPARTPIENT. Report on the analysis of the samplecensus of African agriculture, 1950 (revised). Nairobi, 1953, pp. 46,duplicated.

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TANGANYIKA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. Agriculture in 'nrganyika. Dar esSalaam, Government Printer, 1945, pp. 60.

TANGANYIKA. The cotton industry 1939-1953. Dar es Salaam, GovernmentPrinter, 1953, pp. 29.

MATHESON, J. K. and BOVILL, E. W., ed. East African agriculture: A shortsurvey of the agriculture of Kenya, Uganda, Tanganyika and Zanzibar,and of its principal products. London, Oxford University Press, 1950,pp. 332.

GUITJEBAUD, C. W. Econonic Survey of the Sisal Industry of Tanganyika.London, 1958.

Land Tenure

LIVERSAGE, V. Land tenure in the colonies. Cambridge University Press,1945, pp. 151.

UNITED KINGDOM, Secretary of State for the Colonies. Report of the confer-ence on African land tenure in East and Central Africa, held atArusha, Tanganyika, February, 1956. London, H.M.S.O., October, 1956,pp. 44. (Special supplement to the journal of African Administration.)

UNITED NATIONS (Trusteeship Council). Report by FAO on Land Tenure andLand Use Problems in Trust Territories of Tanganyika and Ruanda-Urundi.Document T/1438, 19 February, 1959 (mimeographed).

Industry

EAST AFRICAN STATISTICAL DEPARTMENT. Survey of industrial production in Dares Salaam for 1954. Dar es Salaam, 1956, pp. 18, duplicated.

TANGANYIKA. Commerce and industry in Tanganyika 1957. Dar es Salaam,Department of Commerce and Industry, 1957, pp. 104.

TANGANYIKA. Minerals and industry in Tanganyika, by C. B. Bisset. London,H.M.S.O., 1955, pp. 13.

EAST AFRICAN TRADE AND INDUSTRY, Nairobi, D. A. Hawkins, Ltd., monthly sinceMarch, 1954.

EAST AFRICAN INDUSTRIAL COUNCIL. Some notes on industrial development inEast Africa. Nairobi, Government Printer, 1956, pp. 63.

Money and Banking

NEWLYN, W. T. and ROWAN, D. C. Money and banking in British Colonial Africa:A study of the monetary and banking systems of eight British Africanterritories. Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1954, pp. 301.

- 2 -

SAYERS, R. S. ed. Banking in the British Commonwealth. Oxford, ClarendonPress, 1952, pp. 486.

Public Finance

PEACOCK, A. T. and DOSSER, D. G. M. The National income of Tanganyika,1952-1954. London, H.M.S.O., 1958, pp. 78 (Colonial research studyNo. 26).

TANGANYIKA. East African Statistical Department. Budget survey 1958-59.Dar es Salaam, Government Printer, 1958. (This is the third in aseries.)

EAST AFRICA. Report of the East African commission of inquiry on incometax 1956-57. (Chairman, E. Coates) Nairobi, Government Printer,1957, pp. 212.

WOODS, Sir Wilfrid. Report on a fiscal survey of Kenya, Uganda, andTanganyika. Nairobi, Government Printer for Conference of EastAfrican Governors, 1946, pp. 178.

Development Plans and Programmes

TANGANYIKA. A ten-year development and welfare plan for Tanganyika Terri-tory, by Bruce Hutt. Dar es Salaam,Government Printer, 1946, pp. 67.

TANGANYIKA. Revised development and welfare plan for Tanganyika 1950-1956. Dar es Salaam, Government Printer, 1951, pp. 40.

TANGANYIKA. Development plan 1955-1960: Capital works programme. Dar esSalaam, Government Printer, 1955, pp. 29.

TANGANYIKA. A review of development plans in the Southern Province --1953. Dar es Salaam, Government Printer, 1954, pp. 49.

Labour

EAST AFRICAN STATISTICAL DEPARTMENT. Report on the enumeration of Africanemployees in Tanganyika, July, 1952. Nairobi, 1953, pp. 81, dupli-cated.

GULLIVER, P. H. Labour migration in a rural economy. A study of the Ngoniand Ndendeuli of Southern Tanganyika. Kampala, E.A. Institute ofSocial Research, 1955, pp. 48 (East African Studies No. 6).

NORTHCOTT, C. H. ed. African labour efficiency survey. London, H.M.S.O.1949, pp. 123. (Colonial research publication No. 3.)

ORDE BROINE, G. St. J. Labour conditions in East Africa. London, H.M.S.O.1946, pp. 94. (Colonial No. 193.)

- 23 ^

Cost of Living

EAST AFRICAN STATISTICAL DEPARTNENT. The pattern of income, expenditure andconsumption of African labourers in Dar es Salaam, August, 1950.Nairobi, 1951, pp. 27, duplicated.

WRIGHT, F. C. African consumers in Nyasaland and Tanganyika: An enquiryinto the distribution and consumption of commodities among Africanscarried out in 1952-1953. London, H.M.S.0., 1955, pp. 117.

Education

TANGANYIKA. Report on Non-African Education by D. Riddy, C.B.E., H.M.I.,and L. Tait, B.A., July, 1955, Dar es Salaam, Government Printer, 1955,pp. 92.

LIST OF TABLES

1. Land utilization, overall and by province.

2. Population by province and by origin, 1957, and populationdensity by province.

3. Population of thirteen principal towns, 1957.

4. Industrial distribution of African employees, 1957.

5. Occupational status of African adult male employees, 1957.

6. Gross domestic product by origin:a) narrow definition - f million, 1954-57.b) narrow definition - per cent of total, 1954-57.c) figures on narrow and wider definitions compared -

per cent of total, 1956.

7. Use and supply of resources, 1954-57.

8. Pattern of expenditure on gross domestic product.a) including activity outside monetary economy, on

"narrow definition".b) monetary economy only.

9. Gross domestic capital formation by sector, industrial useand type of asset, 1954-57.

a) f million.b) percentage breakdown.

10. Total external and inter-territorial trade of Tanganyika,value, volume and price.

11. Commodity composition of total domestic exports to destina-tions outside East Africa, various periods fron 1921.

12. Changes in quantity of principal exports to destinationsoutside East Africa, 1925, 1935, 1938 and 1947-57,

13. Average value indices and recent price quotations forTanganyika's principal exports.

14. Commodity composition of retained imports, 1956 and 1957.

15. Geographical distribution of external trade.

16. Principal destinations of exports in 1956 and 1957 andprincipal commodities exported to these destinations.

17. Principal destinations of Tanganyika's main exports,1956-57.

18. Major items in Tanganyikats trade with Kenya and Uganda.

19. Elements of Tanganyika's balance of payments in 1956.

20. Production of main cash crops.

21. Miscellaneous indicators of growth of the Tanganyikaeconomy in recent years.

22. Current budget of the central government.

23. Capital budget of the central government.

24. Functional analysis of total budgetary expenditure, cur-rent and capital.

Notes to tables

- nil or less than half of the last significant figureshown.

n.a. not available.

( 7 estimate, or figure not entirely on the same defini-tion as its neighbors.

( ) component of sub-total immediately above.

"Tons" are long tons.

All figures are rounded to last significant figure shown. Con-sequently components may not add exactly to totals.

Sources: Most of the principal statistics for Tanganyika arereproduced in the annual Tanganyika Statistical Ab-st-ract. Sources given without underlining are thosecited in the Statistical Abstract. References tosour-ces outside the Statistical Abstract are under-lined.

TABLE 1

Tanganyika - Land Utilization, Overall and by ProvinceSouth ern

Total Lake Central Tanga Southern Eastern Western Highlands NorthernTanganyika Province Province Province Province Province Province Province Province

Total land area,- thousandsquare miles 342.7 38.8 35.3 14.0 56.1 41.6 78.7 45.0 33.3

Vegetation actively induced byman - thousand square miles 30.0 8.2 4.9 1.5 4.7 2.9 4.2 2.3 1.3

Percentage of total

Vegetation actively induced by man 9 21 14 11 8 7 5 5 4

Forest and woodland 36 9 21 18 53 33 61 40 6

Woodland bushland intermediate,bushland and thicket 16 11 33 45 8 12 4 14 42

Wooded grassland and grassland 37 56 32 21 30 47 27 39 45

Swamp 1 2 1 1 - 1 2 1 1

Desert and semi-desert 1 - 1 4 - - 1 1 1

Source: Tanganyika Forest Departnent.

1/ Provinces are arranged in descending order of the percentage of total area covered by vegetation activelyinduced by man.

TABLE 2

Pepulation by Province and by Origin, 1957

and Population Density by Province

Density perPopulation - thousands sqare mile

Indian Goan Culti-Province and and Dry vated

Total African European Pakistani Arab other land landi/

Lake 2,246.2 2,228.5 2.3 10.0 4.3 1.1 59.3 274Tanga 688.3 671.4 2.4 8.5 4.0 1.9 49.4 459Eastern 1,084.6 1,039.8 6.2 29.5 5.2 3.9 26.3 369Central 887.0 879.4 1.3 3.5 1.8 0.9 25.3 181Northern 772.4 759.0 3.6 7.7 0.2 1.9 23.5 581Southern Highlands 1,030.3 1,023.8 2.3 3.3 0.3 0.5 23.0 458Southern 1,014.3 1,008.0 1.1 4.6 0.2 0.3 18.2 218Western 1,062.6 1,052.8 1.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 13.8 251

Total Tanganyika 8,785.6 8,662.7 20.5 71.7 19.1 11.6 26.0 293

Source: East African Statistical Department.

/ Based on area of "vegetation actively induced by man" - c.f. Table 1.

TABLE 3

Population of Thirteen Principal Towns, 1957

Number of personsTown Total African European Others

Dar es Salaam 128,742 93,363 4,479 30,900Tanga 38,053 27,973 768 9,312Mwanza 19,877 15,241 366 4,270Tabora 15,361 12,005 340 3,016Morogoro 14,507 12,440 281 1,786Moshi 13,726 9,399 441 3,886Dodoma 13,435 10,386 350 2,699Mtwara 10,459 9,617 207 635Lindi 10,315 8,370 100 1,845Arusha 10,038 5,161 878 3,999Iringa 9,587 7,792 304 1,491Mbeya 6,932 5,641 266 1,025Mikindani 4.,807 4383 2 422

Total, thirteen towns 295,839 221,771 8,782 65,286

Percentage of total for thewhole of Tanganyika 3% 3% 43% 64%

Source: East African Statistical Department.

TABLE 4

Industrial Distribution of African Employees in Tanganyika, 1957

Number of persons

Adult Adult Young personsIndustry Total males females & children/

Agriculture, forestry & fishing 211,351 167,425 20,605 23,321Mining and quarrying 12,975 12,441 200 334Manufacturing and electricity 19,839 18,756 425 658Construction 11,377 11,196 90 91Transport and communications 8,157 8,131 3 23Commerce 9,675 9,159 316 200Miscellaneous services 12,777 11,,418 796 563Public service 94,284 92,686 1,323 275

Total of above 3803435 331,212 23,758 25,465Domestic service 50,00 L36,o007 n.a. n.a.Unclassified 10,03 n.a. n.a. n.a,

Total, all African employees 530,4702 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Source: Labor Department.

Includes all workers whose apparent age does not exceed 18 years.

TABLE 5

Occupational Status of African Adult Male Employees in Tanganyika, 1957

Occupation Number of persons

Clerical 10,251Shop, office and store hands 8,476Drivers, mechanics and fitters 14,582Carpenters and joiners 5,885Masons and bricklayers 7,133Teachers 4,571Other services (excluding domestic service in

private households) 3,561Headmen (foremen) 15,803Other skilled workers 31,219Unskilled laborers 229,731

Total of above 331,212

Plus: Domestic service C 6,00o7Unclassified n.a.

Source: Labor Department.

TABLE 6a

Gross Domestic Product of Tanganyika, by origin, 1954-57- narrow definition &/

f million at factor cost

1957(pre-

liminary1954 1955 1956 estimate)

Agriculture 63.4 67.5 69.4 71.5(of which: monetary economy (28.2) (29.7) (34.0) (32.6)

subsistence sector) (35.1) (37.8) (35.4) (38.9)

Livestock products 13.0 12.4 12.7 15.4(of which: monetary economy (3.7) (3.6) (3.7) (3.9)

subsistence sector) (9.3) (8.8) (9.0) (11.5)

Forest products 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.7(of which: monetary economy (3.0) (3.1) (3.5) (3.7)

subsistence sector) (0.04) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03)

Hunting and fishing 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1(of which: monetary economy (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1)

subsistence sector) (1.2) (1.4) (1.6) (2.0)

Mining and quarrying?/ 4.6 5.1 5.0 5.0

Manufacturing?/ 3.7 4.1 4.0 5.2

Construction 6.6 4.2 5.3 5.0(of which: monetary economy 6:2) (3:7? (4.8) (4.4)

subsistence sector) .04 0 4 0 4 N5Public utilities / 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Transport, storage and communications?/ 8.0 8.5 9.0 10.0

Distribution2/ 7.0 7.6 7.6 7.8

Ownership of dwellings&' 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1

Public administration and defense?/ 7.7 8.7 9.3 10.9

Miscellaneous services?/ 3e6 4.0 4.3 4.5Total gross domestic product at 125.2 130.2 135.7 145.1

factor cost(of which: monetary economy (79.1) (81.8) (89.3) (92.3)

subsistence sector) (46.2) (48.4) (46.4) (52.9)

Source: East African Statistical Department; reproduced in TanganyikaStatistical Abstract, 1958.

iJ Excluding certain forms of production in the subsistence sector, estimatesfor which are "nothing but reasoned guesses". Omitted activities includehut building and beer making by Africans. Estimates for these activitiesare included in Table 6c.

/ Production wholly within the monetary economy.

TABLE 6b

Gross Domestic Product of Tanganyika, by Origin, 1954-57

- narrow definition 2/Per cent of total gross domestic

product at factor cost

1957(pre-

liminary1954 1955 1956 estimate)

Agriculture 50.6 51.8 51.1 49.2(of which: monetary economy (22.6) (22.8) (25.1) (22.4)

subsistence sector) (28.1) (29.0) (26.1) (26.8)

Livestock products 10.4 9.5 9.3 10.6(of which: monetary economy (3.0) (2.7) (2.7) (2.7)

subsistence sector) (7. 4 ) (6.8) (6.6) (7.9)

Forest products 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5(of which: monetary economy (2.4) (2.4) (2.6) (2.5)

subsistence sector) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02)

Hunting and fishing 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5(of which: monetary economy (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)

subsistence sector) (1.0) (1.0) (1.2) (1.4)

Mining and quarrying 2 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.5

Mlanufacturing 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.6

Constxuction 5.3 3.2 3.9 3.4(of which: monetary economy (4.9) (2.9) (3.6) (3.0)

subsistence sector) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4)

Public utilities ? 0.5 o.6 0.7 0.7

Transport, storage & communications?/ 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.9

Distribution ? 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.4

Ownership of dwellings ? 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1

Public administration & defense ? 6.1 6.7 6.9 7.5

Miscellaneous services 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.1

Total gross domestic product at 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0factor cost

(of which: monetary economy (63.1) (62.8) (65.8) (63.6)subsistence sector) (36.9) (37.2) (34.2) (36.4)

Source and notes: as for Table 6a.

TABLE 6c

Gross Domestic Product of Tanganyika, by Origin

- figures on narrow and wider definitions compared /l956

Per cent of totalf million at factor gross domestic pro-

cost tiuct t factor- costNarrow Wider Narrow Wider

definition definition definition definition

Agriculture 69.4 74.4 51.1 48.8(of which: monetary economy (34.0) (34.0) (25.1) (22.3)

subsistence sector) (35.4) (40.3) (26.1) (26.5)

Livestock products 12.7 12.9 9.3 8.5(of which: monetary economy (3.7) (3.7) (2.7) (2.4)

subsistence sector) (9.0) (9.2) (6.6) (6.0)

Forest products 3.6 5.7 2.6 3.7(of which: monetary economy (3.5) (3.5) (2.6) (2.3)

subsistence sector) (0.03) (2.1) (0.02) (1.4)

Hunting and fishing 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.1(of which: monetary economy (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1)

subsistence sector) (1.6) (1.6) (1.2) (1.0)

Mining and quarrying 5.0 5.0 3.7 3.3

Manufacturing 4.0 9.3 3.0 6.1(of which: monetary economy (4.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.6)

subsistence sector) ( - ) (5.3) ( - ) (3.5)

Construction 5.3 9.3 3.9 6.1(of which: monetary economy (4.8) (4.8) (3.6) (3.2)

subsistence sector) (0.4) (4.5) (0.3) (2.9)

Public utilities ? 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6

Transport, storage & communications 9.0 9.0 6.7 5.9

Distribution / 7.6 7.6 5.6 5.0Ownership of dwellings 2.9 2.9 2.1 1.9Public administration & defense 9.3 9.3 6.9 6.1

Miscellaneous services 4.3 4.3 3.2 2.8

Total gross domestic product atfactor cost 135.7 152.4 100.0 100.0

(of which: monetary economy (89.3) (89.3) (65.8) (58.6)subsistence sector) (46.4) (63.1) (34.2) (41.4)

Source: East African Statistical Department; reproduced in TanganyikaStatistical Abstract, 1958.

1/ By contrast with the "narrow definition", the "wider definition" coverscertain forms of production, estimates for which can be "nothing butreasoned guesses". These activities include, notably, hut building andbeer making by Africans.

2/ Production wholly within the monetary economy.

TABLE 7

Use and Supply of Resources in Tanganyika, 1954-57 f million

Year-to-year changes atAnnual figures current prices

1957 1956-1957(preliminary 1954- 1955- (preliminary

1954 1955 1956 estimate) 1955 1956 estimate)Use of resourcesPrivate consumption 97.2 111.3 99.8 117.7 +14.2 -11.5 +17.9

General government consumption 12.0 13.5 14.9 16.8 + 1.5 + 1.4 + 2.0

Gross domestic capital formation 21.3 23.6 22.4 23.0 + 2.3 - 1.2 + o.6

(of which: private enterprises (11.1) (12.7) (13.1) (13.4) (+ 1.6) (+ 0.4) (+ 0-4)general government ( 5.1) ( 5.5) ( 6.4) ( 7.4) (+ 0.4) (+ 0.8) (+ 1.1)government enterprises) ( 5.1) ( 5.4) ( 3.0) ( 2.1) (+ 0.3) (- 2.4) (- 0.8)

Exports 38.8 39.1 48.4 43.1 + 0.3 + 9.3 5,3

Total use of resources at 169.3 187.5 185.5 200.7 +18.2 - 2.0 +15.2market prices

Supply of resources

Gross domestic product atfactor cost 125.2 130.2 135.7 145.1 + 4.9 + 5.6 + 9.4

Imports (c.i.f.) 37.8 49.1 42.2 47.0 +11.3 - 6.9 + 4.8

Plus: Taxes on expenditure 6.4 8.4 7.8 8.7 + 2.1 - 0.7 + 0.9

Less: Subsidies 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 + 0.1 - - 0.1

Total supply of resources at 169.3 187.5 185.5 200,7 +18.2 - 2.0 +15.2market prices_

Source: East African Statistical Department.._j Figures as given in the original. Include some activity outside the monetary economy ("narrow definition").

TABLE 8a

Pattern of Expenditure on Tanganyika's Gross Domestic Product

1954-57 a/

Percentage of gross domestic product atcurrent market prices

1957(pre-

liminary1954 1955 1956 estimate)

Private consumption 73.9 80.4 69.7 76.6

General government consump- 9.1 9.7 10.4 11.0tion

Gross domestic capital for-mation 16.2 17.1 15.6 15.0

(of which: private enter-prises (8.4) (9.2) (9.1) (8.7)

general govern-ment (3.9) (4.0) (4h4) (4.8)

government enter-prises) (3.9) (3.9) (2.1) (1.4)

Exports 29.5 28.3 33.8 28.1

Less: Imports (c.i.f.) 28.8 35.5 29.5 30.6

Gross domestic product atmarket prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: East African Statistical Department.

/ Figures as given in the original. Include some activity outsidethe monetary --conomy.

TABLE Sb

Pattern of Expenditure on Tang ika's Gross Domestic Product,

1954-57 (Monetary Econoxy Only)

Percentage of gross domestic product atcurrent market prices

1957(pre-

liminary1954 1955 1956 estimate)

Private consumption 60.5 70.6 55.8 65.1

General government consump-tion 14.1 15.0 15.4 16.7

Gross domestic capital for-mation 24.2 25.5 22.5 22.0

(of which: private enter-prises (12.3) (13.4) (12.8) (12.5)

general govern-ment (6.0) (6.1) (6.6) (7.4)

government enter-prises) (6.0) (6.0) (3.1) (2.1)

Exports 45.5 43.5 50.0 42.8

Less: Imports (c.i.f.) 44.3 54.6 43.6 46.6

Gross domestic product atmarket prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: East African Sta-tistical Department.

TABLE 9a

Gross Domestic Capital Formation in Tanganyika

bxy Sector, Industrial Use and Type of Asset, 1954-57

f million1954 1955 1956 1957

(preliminaryBY SECTOR -estimate)

Monetary economy

Private 10.5 12.1 12.4 12.6(of which: building & construction (4.8) (3.7) (4.2) (4.6)

machinery & equipment) (5.7) (8.4) (8.2) (8.0)Public: general government 5.1 5.5 6.4 7.4

government enterprises 5.1 5.4 3.0 2.1(of which: building & construction (6.8) (7.1) (7.4) (8.2)

machinery & equipment) (3.4) (3.8) (1.9) (1.3)Subsistence sector - private building &

construction&/ 0.6 o.6 o.6 0.8

Total (as in Tables 7 and 8)1/ 21.3 23.6 22.4 23.0

BY INDUSTRIAL USE

Agriculture 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2Livestock and forestry - - - -Hunting and fishing 0.03 0.05 0.1 0.2Mining and quarrying 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3Manufacturing 0.9 1.8 1.7 1.4Construction 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.3Public utilities 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.3Transport, storage & communications 5.6 6.5 4.0 3.1Distribution 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.6Ownership of dwellings 3.8 3.5 3.9 4.3Public administration & defense 4.7 5.0 5.7 6.6Miscellaneous services 0.5 0.5 0.6 o.6

Total gross domestic capital formation 21.3 23.6 22.4 23.0

BY TYPE OF ASSET

BuildingDwellings 3.8 3.5 3.9 4.3Non-residential buildings 3.3 3.1 3.8 4.4ConstructionWater supply 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7Communications 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.4Railways & harbors 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.0Other construction & works 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0EquipmentTransport equipment 4.7 7.5 5.3 4.2Machinery and other equipment 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1

Total gross domestic capital formation 21.3 23.6 22.4 23.0

Source and Note: see next page.

TABLE 9a - cont'd.

Sources East African Statistical Department.

/ Estimates of capital formation outside the monetary economy, as usedin the principal national accounting tables, cover only a relativelysmall amount of building and construction. Rough supplementary esti-mates, not included in the figures used in the principal tables, areavailable. These put African hut building and possibly some otherbuilding and construction outside the monetary economy, at aroundf4.3 million, No effort is made in the official national accounts toevaluate any other investment, or disinvestment, which may take placeoutside the monetary economy.

TABLE 9b

Percentage Distribution of Gross Domestic Capital Formation in Tanganyika

by Sector, Industrial Use and Type of Asset, 1954-57

Percentage of total gross domestic capitalformation at market prices

1954 1955 1956 1957(preliminaryestimate)

By sector

Private enterprises 52.1 53.8 58.4 58.4General government 24.0 23.4 28.3 32.4Government entexprises 23.9 22.8 13.3 9.3

Total gross domestic capital 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0formation

By industrial use

Agriculture 9.4 7.9 9.1 9.6Livestock and forestry - - - -Hunting and fishing 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0Mining and quarrying 5.3 3.9 4.7 5.6Manufacturing 4.2 7.5 7.5 6.2Construction 5.0 6.3 5.8 5.7Public utilities 2.8 1.0 1.6 1.4Transport, storage and com-

munications 26.3 27.4 17.8 13.6Distribution 4.8 7.4 7.4 6.8Ownership of dwellings 17.7 14.9 17.5 18.7Public administration & defense 22.1 21.2 25.3 28.9Miscellaneous services 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.4

Total gross domestic capital 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0formation

By type of assetBUILDING

Dwellings 17.7 14.9 17.5 18.7Non-residential buildings 15.6 12.9 17.1 19.1

CONSTRUCTIONWater supply 2.5 3.4 5.2 7.2Communications 9.8 6.9 6.3 5.9Railways and harbors 8.3 7.5 5.1 4.3Other constructional works 3.4 2.9 3.8 4.2

EQUIPMENTTransport equipment 22.2 31.7 23.7 18.4Machinery & other equipment 20.5 19.9 21.4 22.2

Total gross domestic capital 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0formation

Source: East African Statistical Department.

Note: Figures cover limited part only of capital formation outside themonetary economy: see note to Table 9a.

TABLE 10

Total External and Inter-territorial Trade of Tanganyika, Value, Volume and Price, 1948-1957

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957-VALUE - f million

Exports 16.6 21.4 25.4 41.5 48.3 36.8 38.8 39.1 48.4 43.1

(of which: external (15.1) (19.9) (23.2) (39.3) (46.5) (34.2) (36.2) (36.2) (44.9) (39.4)inter-territorial ( 1.2) ( 0.9) ( 0.9) ( 1.2) ( 0.9) ( 1.2) ( 1.1) ( 1.7) ( 2.1) ( 2.0)re-exoorts) ( 0.3) ( 0.6) (1.3) ( 1.0) ( 1.0) ( 1.4) ( 1.5) (1.2) ( 1.4) ( 1.6)

Imports (c.i.f.) 22.2 28.8 28.1 31.7 41.9 33.9 37.8 49.1 42.2 47.0

(of which: extermal (20.1) (25.5) (24.2) (28.1) (37.5) (28.4) (32.0) (43.5) (35.9) (39.3)inter-territorial) ( 2.1) ( 3.2) ( 3.9) ( 3.6) ( 4.5) ( 5.5) (5.9) ( 5.6) ( 6.3) ( 7.7)

Trade balance (imports c.i.f.) -5.7 -7.4 -2.7 +9.8 +6.4 +2.9 +1.0 -10.0 +6.2 -3.9

INDICES - 1955-57 = 100Domestic Exports

Value 39 50 57 96 113 84 89 90 112 98Volume 44 n.a. 58 n.a. 83 79 83 92 107 101Price (unit value) 78 n.a. 105 n.a. 143 111 109 99 104 97

Imports

Value 48 62 61 69 91 74 82 107 92 102Volume n.a. n.a. 67 n.a. 75 67 84 108 89 103Price (unit value) / n.a. n.a. 91 n.a. 121 110 98 99 102 99

Terms of trade n.a. n.a. 116 n.a. 119 101 112 100 102 98

Source: East African Statistical Department.

2/ Obtained by dividing value index by the average value index for the imports of the three East African terri-tories. This method, while unsatisfactory, is the only feasible one.

2/ For the three East African territories combined.

TABLE 11

Commodity Composition of Tanganyika's Total Domestic Exports

to Destinations Outside East Africa

Per cent of total, by value

1948 & 1952 & 1956 &Commodity 1921 1938 1949 1953 1957

Sisal 20 35 57.3 42.7 24.1

Coffee 11 10 6.7 14.1 19.4

Cotton 10 9 9.7 11.8 16.7

Diamonds - 0.1 7.8 7.2 7.2

Lead ore and concentrates - L .9 2.9

Hides and skins 2 5 3.1 3.4 2.9

Cashewnuts 0.5 1.2 2.8

Groundnuts 0.4 0.9 2.5

Castor seed 0.4 1.9 1.9

Sesame seed n.a. 0.1 1.4

Other seeds, nuts, kernels . 1.6 2.1

Gold 3.4 2.2 1.7

Tea 0.4 0.8 1.4

Wood, lumber and cork 0.8 0.8 1.3

Pyrethrum 0.1 O.1 0,2

Tobacco, unmanufactured 1.3 0.3 O.1

Other 6.5 10.4 11.3

Source: Annual Trade Reports.

TABLE 12

Changes -inQuant.ity-of Principal Exports from Tanganyika to Destinations Outside East Africa

Average Average Index: average quantity 1956-57 = 100annual qua-ntity, 1925 1935 1938 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957value, 1956-57

1956-57, (thousand:f million tons unless

othenriseCommodity stated)

Sisal 10.2 l83.7 10 45 55 52 64 72 65 77 86 93 91 95 101 99Coffee, hulled 8.2 19.8 ,g7 Z37 L67 57 62 60 75 83 94 77 98 93 109 91Cotton 7.0 27.6 16 36 32 26 36 39 25 30 40 54 44 74 101 99Diamonds 3.1 365,361 - - 1 25 41 53 19 2 91 47 90 88 98 102

carats

Lead ore and 1.2 13.8 59 109 91concentrates

Hides, skins & 1.2 10.4 56 115 106 99 101furskins million lbs.

Cashew nuts 1.2 25.2 22 14 26 33 46 45 65 72 66 134Groundnuts 1.0 15.6 23 20 5 1 22 60 7 16 36 97 103Tea 0.6 2.1 24 38 48 53 77 81 95 105For comparison:

Export volume index 43 59 80 76 80 89 103 97

Sources: Annual Trade Reports; Digest of Colonial Statistics.

TABLE 13

Average Value Indices and Recent Price Quotations

for Tanganyika's princioal exports

AllSisal Cotton Coffee Diamonds exports

Average value:Index - 1956-57

100

1948 138 53 20 77

1949 152 75 30

1950 181 81 57 139 105

1951 302 131 66

1952 249 165 74 142

1953 135 128 94 124 110

1954 118 109 127 113 109

1955 104 106 92 118 98

1956 106 105 105 96 104

1957 94 95 95 104 96

Price quotations

Quality No. 1 U.S.A. SantosLondon 15/16" No. 4,

-(. per ton) middl- Newing YorkNew (cents

York perspot lb.)

(centsper.lb.)

May 1957 70 35.4 57.8

May 1958 69 36.3 50.0

May 1959 100 36.3 37.3

TABLE 34

Commodity Composition of Tanganvika's Retained Imports. 1956 and 1957

Per cent of totalBy S.I.T.C. grouP

Food 6.8Beverages and Tobacco 0.8Crude materials, inedible, except fuels -0.3Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials 8.1Animal and vegetable oils and fats 0.7Chemicals 4.8Manufactured aoods classified chiefly bymaterial 40.7

M&chinery and transport equipment 27.1Miscellaneous manufactured articles 7.6Miscellaneous transactions and commodities n.e.s. 3.7

Total lCO.0

By stage of production and use Total Government Other

Food, drink and tobaccol! 7.6 _ 7.6Producerst materials2i 33.7 4.6 29.1Producers' capital goods2/ 21.6 4.6 17.0Spares and access 4ies 4.0 0.8 3.2Consumers' goo4s4/ 29.4 1.7 27.7Miscellaneous/ 3.7 0.2 3.4

Total 100.0 12.0 88.0

Source: East African Statistical Department.

1J Includes certain material for the production of food and also un-manufactured tobacco.

2 Includes feeding stuffs for animals; oilseeds and nuts; processedoils and fats; all aviation and motor spirit; all fuel oils,lubricating oils and greases.

2/ Excludes private motor cars, motor cycles, cycles and domesticappliances, furniture and fixtures; all of these are includedunder "Consumer's goods".

/ Includes private motor cars, motor cycles, cycles and tyres andtubes for same; domestic appliances including refrigerators;sewing machines; wirteless sets and radiograms; wood and metal;furniture and fixtures and other household utensils; all cottonand other pieceg6ods; blankets; all articles of clothing andfootwear.

/ Includes all imports by parcel post, livestock not for food,and gold and silver.

TABLE 12

Geographical Distribution of Tanganyika's Exterral Trade

Per cent of total

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957Destination of Excports{excluding reexports)

United Kingdom 39.1 39.4 40.3 38.3 34.1 35.0 29.9 29.2Kenya and Uganda 3.7 2.8 2.0 3.5 2.8 4.5 4.4 4.9Other sterling coun-

tries 19.9 17.8 14.3 15.2 16.0 18.1 17.5 20.9

Total, sterling area 62.8 60.1 56.6 57.0 52.9 57.5 51.8 55.0

United States andCanada 11.5 19.9 22.7 17.7 15.8 10.9 9.3 8.5

Non-sterling O.E.E.C.countries 20.1 19.0 18.3 20.5 26.8 26.2 33.6 29.7

Others 5.6 1.0 2.4 4.9 4.4 5.3 5.2 6.7

Total 100.0 1CO.O 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Origin of Imports lJ

United Kingdom 48.3 39.4 42.1 39.5 36.3 36.2 L8. g0.27Kenya and Uganda 14.0 11.4 10.6 16.3 15.5 11.4 15.0 16.4Other sterling coun-tries 14.2 17.3 18.2 19.8 23.9 16.8 L14.Z7 LT3.7

Total, sterling area 76.5 68.1 70.9 75.6 75.6 64.4 L67.2/ L60./

United States and -

Canada 5.7 3.9 4.2 6.1 2.8 2.6 2.27 L2. 2Non-sterling O.E.E.C.

countries 7.6 14.8 15.0 12.5 14.8 18.7 /16. 113.1Others 10.1 13.2 8.3 3.1 3.3 11.4 Ll /1. 21.2Unallocated - - 1.6 2.7 3.5 2.9 L2. L2.§

…Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: East African Statistical Department and Annual Trade Reports.

l/ 1956 and 1957 figures for imports originating outside East Africa ("externalimports") cover "direct imports" only: this is to say, they exclude importsarriving by way of Kenya or Uganda. For these two years, direct imports were92% and 88% of total external imports. In this table, it has been assumedthat the ratio of direct imports to total external imports is the same forimports from each source. This is unlikely to be the case in practice.

TABLE 16

Principal Destinations of Tanganyikals Exports in 1956 and 1957,

and Principal Commodities Exported to these Destinations

Figures are average exports in 1956-57, in f '000

Destination Total Exports Of which:

United Kingdom 13,066 Sisal 3,350 Diamonds 3,054 Coffee - - - - 1,885

Germany 4,745 Coffee - - - - 1,557 Cotton - - - - - 1,367 Sisal - - - - 893

United States 3,372 Coffee - - - - 2,306 Sisal - - - - - 662

Belgium 2,930 Sisal --- -- 1,009

India 2,732 Cashew nuts - - 1,190 Cotton - - - - - 1,176

Netherlands 2,240 Sisal - - - - - 789 Coffee - 360

Source: Annual Trade Reports.

TABLE 17

Principal Destinations of Tanganyikats Main Exports, 1956-57 -/

Figures following countries are percentage of total exportsof commodity to destinationsoutside East. Africa in 1956and 1957.

Average va±Lueof totalexports

Commodity 1956-57 (vooo) Destinations

Sisal 10,153 United Kingdom - 33% Belgium - - - - 10% Germany 9% United States - 7%

Coffee 8,190 United States - 28% Germany - - - - 19% Australia - - -- 5%

Cotton 7,032 Germany - - - - 19% India - - - - - 17% United Kingdom - 8%

Diamonds 3,054 United Kingdom -100%

Hides, skins and 1,211 United Kingdom - 40% United States - 14% Netherlands - 13% Italy - -- - 12%furskins

Cashew nuts 1,198 Indiar - - - - - 99%

Groundnuts 1,045 United Kingdom - 42% Netherlands - - 13%

Source: Annual Trade Reports.

X~] Exports to Hong Kong and Japan are not covered in this table. They may well be relatively important forcertain items.

TABLE 18

Major Items in Tanganyika's Trade with Kenya and Uganda

f'000

1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957Exports

Tobacco, umanufactured 123 113 72 43 329 269 450Coconut oil 119 113 183 147 169 189 159Wood, lumber & cork 142 114 78 139 165 172 152Beans and peas, etc. 60 90 140 98 221 178 136Hides, skins & fur skins 89 42 80 34 70 157 45Electric energy n.a. n.a. n.a. 42 73 81 68Sugar & sugar pre- - 1 88 34 45 117 10parations

Other 618 463 586 516 629 924 1.011

Total 1,151 935 1,227 1,053 1,701 2,087 2,031

Imports

Cigarettes 1,288 1,815 2,138 2,362 2,685 2,939 3,147Beer 111 300 344 424 500 517 488Wheat flour 349 517 582 581 612 385 506Clothing & footwear 285 249 185 274 314 354 347Manufactures of metals n.a. n.a. n.a. 181 194 317 283Tea 144 199 175 242 61 204 387Sugar & sugar pre- 216 185 287 46 55 140 356parations

Cement - 4 3 23 33 146 312Other 1,232 1,183 1,805 1,723 1,159 1,347 1,900

Total 3,625 4,452 5,519 5,856 5,613 6,349 7,726

Source: East African Statistical Department and Annual Trade Reports.

Note: Exports are for use in Kenya and Uganda and imports for use inTanganyika.

TABLE 19

Elements of Tanganyika's Balance of Payments in 1956

2000

Current account Credit Debit Balance

Merchandise!/ 48,394 42,234 +6,160Government interest 324 434 -110Government payments to War Department - 642 -642Government pension payments 415 -415Crown and other Agents' charges - 52 -52Transactions with East African High

Commission 650 89L -241Miscellaneous government payments - 58 -58Education costs - 262 -262

Capital account

Colonial Development and WelfareGrants 841 - +841

Government borrowing from officialsources - 79 -79

Security transactions of publicsector 526 112 *414

Change in sterling assets +3,961Change in other external assets -7Balance of other transactions, both

current and capital -9,510

Source: East African Statistical Department; Iden: An Estimate of theBalance of Payments of East Africa for the year 1956.

9dem: PublicFinance in East Africa, an. Analysis 1959).

2/ Imports c.i.f.

TABLE 20

Production of Main Cash Crows in Tanganyika

Average Index: average Quantity 1956-57 = 100quantity 1938 1939 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 19571956-57

Commodity (tons)

Sisal fibre& tow 185,300 55 50 57 65 67 66 78 88 91 96 95 100 100

Coffeei/:African 16,350 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 64 72 81 81 84 104 96 98 102estate 5,300 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 28 36 40 30 28 45 62 96 104

Tea 2,600 LO LF7 23 26 24 30 40 42 49 62 77 92 108

Tobacco:fire cured 500 84 102 52 146 210 292 162 118 76 172 118 106 94flue cured 1,560 n.a. 1 21 54 49 82 79 68 63 102 97 97 103total 2,060 n.a. 25 29 77 88 133 100 80 66 119 102 100 100

Cotton lint2/ 26,900 29 42 26 36 34 33 31 52 33 68 80 88 112

Sugar 18,200 27 L34J 42 34 42 47 45 55 64 53 64 99 101

Pyrethrum(dried flower) 740 El L47 69 34 32 39 41 32 39 65 86 100 100

Oilseeds3-/ 89,350 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 64 48 61 66 88 112

Wheat 4,8o0 52fl I5q7 148 90 102 169 121 110 102 204 77 100 n.a.

Source: Agricultural Department.1/ Clean coffee.2/ Lint equivalent of seed cotton delivered.J/ Includes groundnuts, copra, cashew nuts, castor seed, sesame seed and sunflower seed.

4/ 1956 only.

General note: For the crops shown, deliveries at some stage in the course of processing and marketing give a goodindication of production. The figures are not fully comprehensive however. E.g. some labor is con-sumed direct by African growers and some "buni" production by-passes the coffee hulleries.

TABLE 21

Miscellaneous Indicators of the Growth of the Tanganyika Econo!M in Recent Years

Index, average 1956-57 = 100Average quantity,

Item 1956-57 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1955 1956 14

Cement consumption 121,587 tons 41 69 91 93 89 105 91 133 96 104

Licensed private motor vehicles 27,940 68 79 87 94 106

Total electricity sales2i 110.3 million kWh 22 29 36 50 58 66 77 87 97 103

Cotton piece goods-/ and arti- 84.9 million sq. 58 57 73 60 923' 1143' 81/ 119ficial textile fabrics - ydsretained imports

African primary education - 345,856 47 51 58 62 71 80 90 97 103number of pupils enrolled

Source: Statistical abstract, various tables.

1/ Including exports to Mombasa.

2/ Excluding blankets.

3] Including artifical silk piece goods.

TABLE 22

Current Budget of the Central Government of Tanganyika

21000

1952 1954/5 1955/6 1956/7 1957/8 1958/9Revenue est. est.

Direct Taxation 4,989 5,901 6,021 5,579 6,443 6,082

Indirect Taxation 7,358 7,615 8,113 7,925 8,782 9,848

Provision of Goods & Services 681 888 994 1,104 1,288 1,430

Goverment Property 2,117 1,768 1,839 1,786 1,759 1,688

Miscellaneous 520 2,013 1,038 1,074 747 733

Poll Taxes Transferred to LocalAuthorities 713 904 317 24 8 6

Transfers from Reserve 52 188 358 - - -

Total Revenue 16,430 19,277 18,680 17,492 19,027 19,787

Functional Analysis of Sources

1. Taxes on Income 4,966 5,847 5,996 5,570 6,381 6,052

2. Taxes on Expenditure 5,965 7,153 8,242 8,023 8,955 10,033

3. Export Duties 1,330 505 19 24 20 25

4. Income from Property 1,678 2,055 1,874 2,033 2,200 2,212

5, Provision of Goods & Services 473 682 710 698 780 851

6. Other Income 185 395 338 190 70 346

Total 14,597 16,637 17,179 16,538 18,406 19,519

Adjustments 1,833 2,640 1,501 954 621 268

Total Revenue 16,430 19,277 18,680 17,492 19,027 19,787

Expenditure

Social Services 2,478 3,912 4,538 4,775 5,552 5,857

Economic Services 1,711 2,899 3,390 3,683 4,024 4,259

Maintenance of Law & Order 945 1,687 1,854 2,053 2,078 2,221

Defence 296 588 604 652 679 673

Administration 1,010 1,390 1,423 1,573 1,668 2,104

Pensions & Gratuities 534 683 772 880 927 921

Local Government 315 764 623 657 624 689

Publ;c Debt 229 561 543 715 916 1,184

Revenue Collection, etc. 344 405 443 476 587 625

Unallocated Items 4,759 2,677 3,984 2,359 2,524 2,418

Total 12,621 15,566 18,174 17,823 19,579 20,951

Poll Tax Receipts Transferredto Local Authorities 713 904 317 24 8 6

Transfers to Reserves 2,544 1,231 1,041 310 3 -

Total Expenditure 15,878 17,701 19,532 18,157 19,590 20,957

Source: Budget Survey 1958-59.

TABLE 23

Capital Budget of the Central Government of Tanganyika

f1000

1952 1954/5 1955/6 1956/7 1957/8 1958/9Sources of Funds est. est.

Development Fund 1,645 491 466 637 1,131 1,068Loans (including Advances) 1,924 2,015 2,271 3,200 3,539 2,674Colonial Development & WJelfare

& other Grants 1,080 530 677 922 1,219 1,589Custodian of Enemy Property

Funds - - 450 523 738 693

Total 4,649 3,036 3,864 5,282 6,627 6,024

Agricultural Development Reserve 340 301 220 - - -

Total 4,989 3,337 4,084 5,282 6,627 6,024

Expenditure

Natural Resources 752 640 584 599 900 1,258Communications 2,210 1,385 1,197 966 975 921Township Development 367 350 570 1,292 1,166 931Public Buildings & Works 1,213 335 707 942 1,581 1,134Social Services 387 594 1,020 1,445 1,893 1,668Miscellaneous 60 33 6 38 112 112

Total 4,989 3,337 4,084 5,282 6,627 6,024

Source: Budget Survey 1958-59.

TABLE 24

Functional Analysis of Total Budgetary Expenditure,

Current and Capital

£1000

1952 1954/5 1955/6 1956/7 1957/8 1958/9Heads of Expenditure Est. Est.

ECONOMIC SERVICES: 5,653 5,837 6,38 7,333 7,445 8,536

Agriculture, Forests,Veterinary 1,631 1,805 1,752 1,879 1,998 2,563

Mines and Surveys 354 429 484 648 526 593Water Supply Develop-ment* 583 763 1,104 1,979 1,807 1,990

Roads 2,196 2,023 1,987 1,766 1,870 1,910Railways 10 8 195 177 180 180Aviation and Meteor-

ology 455 423 292 266 332 298Other 136 197 214 251 281 405Township Development 119 70 159 182 186 316African Urban Housing 169 119 197 185 265 281

SOCIAL SERVICES: 3,179 4,652 5,604 6,176 7,455 8,059

Education 1,801 2,841 3,382 3,806 4,744 5,271Medical 1,174 1,575 1,864 2,139 2,401 2,386Other 204 236 358 231 310 402

ADMINISTRATION, LAW ANDORDER: 3,005 4,477 4,936 5,337 5,790 6,512

- --

Central and LocalAdministration 1,177 1,770 2,018 2,147 2,253 2,696

Law, Order and Defence 1,454 2,297 2,474 2,714 2,950 3,191Revenue Control and

Collection 374 410 444 476 587 625

GENERAL EXPENDITURE: 6,049 4,523 4,238 3,149 4,495 3,919

Public Works 1,959 1,402 1,468 1,700 2,066 1,719Other general recur-

rent items 1,722 2,264 2,715 2,050 2,392 2,277Other general non-re-

current items 2,368 857 55 -601 37 -77

Total current and capitalexpenditure excl. de-preciation 17,886 19,489 21,162 21,995 25,185 27,026

Total adjustments 2,981 2,001 2,452 1,4k4 1,031 -45

Total expenditure as shownon Government Accounts 20,867 21,490 23,614 23,439 26,216 26,981

* Including urban water supplies. Source: Budget Survey, 1958-59.