The Economy of Sub-Saharan Africa · the economic environment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Where the...

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The Economy of Sub-Saharan Africa

The Economy of Sub-Saharan Africa Centre for Financial and Management Studies

© SOAS University of London First published: 2014; Revised: 2016, 2019

All rights reserved. No part of this module material may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, including photocopying and recording, or in information storage or retrieval systems, without written permission from the Centre for Financial and Management Studies, SOAS University of London.


Module Introduction and Overview

Contents

1 Introduction to the Module 2

2 The Module Authors 2

3 Study Materials 4

4 Module Overview 4

5 Learning Outcomes 5

6 Assessment 6

Specimen Examination 13


2 University of London

1 Introduction to the Module Welcome to the module The Economy of Sub-Saharan Africa. The module

begin with an introduction to the major trends in economic growth and

demographic change in the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa – providing

the historical background to modern economic development with a sum-

mary of the impact of slavery, colonialism, independence and demographic

change on African economies.

You will then study theories and experiences of land reform and technologi-

cal change in the context of specific African countries, examining the root

causes, persistence of and attempted solutions to the problem of rural

poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa. Particular attention is placed on the gender

dimensions of rural poverty.

The structure and composition of employment in SSA, highlighting the

heterogeneity of experience between and within countries is examined, in an

attempt to understand the relationships between labour market structure

and poverty, looking at the role of labour market rigidities and labour

market demand constraints. To address the question of sustainable growth,

you will study the theoretical debate on the links between trade, industriali-

sation and growth and its relevance for African countries.

By the midpoint of the module, you will focus on the structural features of

financial systems in SSA with an emphasis on the heterogeneity of experience

between countries. The module will discuss the functions of finance with

particular reference to a developing country, and review the main debates in

finance including the finance and growth debate, the bank-based vs. market-

based debate and the financial-liberalisation debates. The inability of many

countries in the region to raise the necessary levels of investment finance from

domestic sources leads to a heavy reliance on external sources of finance, such

as foreign direct investment and foreign aid will be questioned.

Towards the end of the module, you will be introduced to the major debates

on governance and economic development in Africa. This debate has been

dominated by the ‘good governance agenda’, and you will learn to assess

the economic theory behind the good governance agenda. This final unit

assesses the economic prospects of the Sub-Saharan Africa region by focus-

ing on three specific and topical challenges faced by the region – agriculture,

specifically the threats posed by climate change and global price volatility,

the prospects for the manufacturing and services sectors and the likely role

that China will play in mitigating the investment savings gap in Africa.

2 The Module Authors Dr. Myriam Blin gained a PhD in Gender and Development Economics

from the University of Manchester. Her research focuses on areas of gender,

trade and development; research methods, and political economy, with

special research interest on North Africa, Mauritius and the SADEC region.

Dr. Blin is currently a lecturer in Economics and International Economics at

the HCT Dubai (UAE).


Centre for Financial and Management Studies 3

Dr. Hannah Bargawi is a development economist. Her research and

teaching currently focuses on Development and Gender Economics with a

regional specialization in Sub-Saharan African and the Middle East. Dr.

Bargawi gained her PhD in Economics from the University of London in

2009.

Dr. Hannah Bargawi is currently a lecturer in Economics at SOAS, Universi-

ty of London.

Dr. Radha Upadhyaya is a researcher and lecturer in the fields of banking,

finance and entrepreneurship in Africa.

Radha completed her PhD at SOAS, University of London. She is a devel-

opment economist with unique combination of research, teaching, public

policy and private sector experience. Radha has been involved in policy

reform as a Director of the Insitute of Economic Affairs and was also in-

volved in the restructuring of a failed Kenyan bank. Currently she is a

member of the Programme Investment Committee (Board) of the Financial

Sector Deepening Trust (FSDK) which is an independent Trust established

to support the development of inclusive financial markets in Kenya.

Dr. Upadhyaya is currently a Research Fellow at the Institute for Develop-

ment Studies, University of Nairobi.

Dr. Emmanuel A. Codjoe is a researcher and lecturer in the fields of eco-

nomic development and international finance and development. He

previously worked as a senior teaching fellow in the Department of Eco-

nomics, SOAS, University of London. His research areas include the nexus

between trade, investment and development aid, economics of developing

regions, and industrial development policies in SSA.

Dr. Codjoe is currently a lecturer in Economics at the University of Ghana.

Dr. Hazel Gray is an LSE Fellow in the Department of International Devel-

opment at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Her

research interests concern the political economy of development. In particu-

lar, her research explores the political economy of the state, industrial policy

and economic development in Africa. She holds a PhD and MSc from SOAS,

University of London, and a degree in politics, philosophy and economics

from the University of Oxford. She worked for three years as an economist

at the Ministry of Finance in Tanzania and has undertaken consultancy for a

number of national and international development agencies on issues of

governance, economic transformation, aid, financing of HIV/AIDs respons-

es in developing countries and public financial management.

Dr. Damian Tobin is a Lecturer in the Department for Financial and Man-

agement Studies, SOAS, University of London, where he specialises in the

finance sector and in China. He was the founding Academic Director of the

MSc International Business Administration.



3 Study Materials This Study Guide is your main learning resource for this module as it directs

your study through eight study units. Each unit sets specific reading tasks from

the Module Reader and provides a lot of detailed content and data.

The Module Reader brings together academic articles and reports and are

comprehensive. They provide a review of the topics covered in the module,

detailed country examples and contributions to some of the debates about

the economic environment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Where the study guide

includes data, there are links to the latest versions.

4 Module Overview The module is structured around eight units, which should be studied on a

weekly basis. It is expected that studying each unit, including the recom-

mended readings and activities, will take between 15 and 20 hours.

However, these timings may vary according to your familiarity with the

subject matter and your own study experience. You will receive feedback

through comments on your assignments, and there is a specimen examina-

tion paper at the end of this Introduction to help you prepare for the final

examination.

Unit 1 Economic Growth and Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa

1.1 An Economic Growth Map of Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 Historical Background to Economic Growth in SSA 1.3 Demographic Change in SSA 1.4 Country Studies 1.5 Synthesising the Evidence: Is Africa Rising? 1.6 Conclusions

Unit 2 Agriculture and the Rural Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa: Past, Present and Future Challenges

2.1 Introduction 2.2 Agriculture and its Role in Economic Development – Theory and Empirical

Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa 2.3 Small versus Large-Scale Farming in Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 Rural Poverty and Gender in SSA – Measuring, Understanding, Overcoming 2.5 Agricultural Policy Debates for SSA since World War 2 2.6 Concluding Remarks

Unit 3 Labour Market, Human Capital and Poverty 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Labour Market Structure and Challenges 3.3 Labour, Poverty and Growth 3.4 Labour Supply Constraints 3.5 Policy Recommendations 3.6 Conclusion



Unit 4 Trade, Industrialisation and Growth 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Trade and Industrialisation Trends since Independence 4.3 Commodity Dependence and Prospects 4.4 Trade, Industrialisation and Growth in a Changing Global Order 4.5 Constraints, Opportunities and Policy Recommendations 4.6 Conclusion

Unit 5 Banking, Capital Markets and Microfinance 5.1 Introduction – Structural Features of Banking and Financial Systems in SSA 5.2 The Role of Finance in Development 5.3 Microfinance and Access to Finance 5.4 Microfinance to Financial Inclusion 5.5 Conclusions and Challenges Ahead

Unit 7 African Governance and Economic Development 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The Economic Theory behind the Good Governance Agenda 7.3 Evidence on Governance in Africa 7.4 Neo-Patrimonialism 7.5 Ethnic Fragmentation, Conflict and Economic Development in Africa 7.6 The Resource Curse 7.7 African Governance in a Wider Comparative Perspective 7.8 Conclusion

Unit 8 Economic Prospects 8.1 Introduction 8.2 SSA Agriculture in a Globalised World 8.3 Looking Ahead – Moving up the Global Value Chain 8.4 Looking Ahead – China as a Source of Investment Finance? 8.5 Conclusion

5 Learning Outcomes When you have completed your study of this module, you will be able to:

• evaluate the causes and variations in economic growth across the Sub-Saharan African region

• explain why economic growth in the region has been uneven, both over time and across different countries

• explain the importance of agriculture and the role of the rural economy across Sub-Saharan Africa as well as over time

• describe the gender dimension of rural poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa • outline the key features of the labour market structure in SSA and

highlight the heterogeneity of experience between countries • explain the constraints faced by African workers in entering or

contributing to the labour market – in particular, the constraints brought about by HIV/AIDS, gendered institutions and skill scarcity



• interpret the structure and evolution of trade and industrialisation policies and trends since the 1960s

• review the analytical framework linking trade, industrialisation and growth

• explain the importance of finance for growth and development and explain the differences in structural features across SSA and over time

• discuss theoretical underpinnings of financial liberalisation and the experience of financial liberalisation in SSA

• discuss the constraints faced by SSA economies in financing develop-ment through internal resources and explain why SSA economies have to resort to external resources for development finance

• discuss the importance of governance for explaining economic per-formance in Africa, considering both the good governance approach and its critics

• evaluate the challenges posed by more volatile prices, climate change and the rise of China for the development of agriculture

• outline the main challenges and growth prospects for the manufacturing and services sectors.

6 Assessment Your performance on each module is assessed through two written assign-

ments and one examination. The assignments are written after Unit 4 and

Unit 8 of the module session. Please see the VLE for submission deadlines.

The examination is taken at a local examination centre in September/

October.

Preparing for assignments and exams

There is good advice on preparing for assignments and exams and writing

them in Chapter 8 of Studying at a Distance by Christine Talbot. We recom-

mend that you follow this advice.

The examinations you will sit are designed to evaluate your knowledge and

skills in the subjects you have studied: they are not designed to trick you. If

you have studied the module thoroughly, you will pass the exam.

Understanding assessment questions

Examination and assignment questions are set to test your knowledge and

skills. Sometimes a question will contain more than one part, each part

testing a different aspect of your skills and knowledge. You need to spot the

key words to know what is being asked of you. Here we categorise the types

of things that are asked for in assignments and exams, and the words used.

All the examples are from the Centre for Financial and Management Studies

examination papers and assignment questions.

Definitions

Some questions mainly require you to show that you have learned some concepts, by setting out their precise meanings. Such questions are likely to be preliminary and be



supplemented by more analytical questions. Generally, ‘Pass marks’ are awarded if the answer only contains definitions. They will contain words such as:

Describe Contrast

Define Write notes on Examine Outline

Distinguish between What is meant by

Compare List

Reasoning

Other questions are designed to test your reasoning, by explaining cause and effect. Convincing explanations generally carry additional marks to basic definitions. They will include words such as:

Interpret Explain What conditions influence What are the consequences of What are the implications of

Judgement

Others ask you to make a judgement, perhaps of a policy or of a course of action. They will include words like:

Evaluate Critically examine Assess Do you agree that To what extent does

Calculation

Sometimes, you are asked to make a calculation, using a specified technique, where the question begins:

Use indifference curve analysis to Using any economic model you know Calculate the standard deviation Test whether

It is most likely that questions that ask you to make a calculation will also ask for an application of the result, or an interpretation.

Advice

Other questions ask you to provide advice in a particular situation. This applies to law questions and to policy papers where advice is asked in relation to a policy problem. Your advice should be based on relevant law, principles and evidence of what actions are likely to be effective. The questions may begin:

Advise Provide advice on Explain how you would advise



Critique

In many cases the question will include the word ‘critically’. This means that you are expected to look at the question from at least two points of view, offering a critique of each view and your judgement. You are expected to be critical of what you have read.

The questions may begin:

Critically analyse Critically consider Critically assess Critically discuss the argument that

Examine by argument

Questions that begin with ‘discuss’ are similar – they ask you to examine by argument, to debate and give reasons for and against a variety of options, for example

Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of Discuss this statement Discuss the view that Discuss the arguments and debates concerning

The grading scheme: Assignments The assignment questions contain fairly detailed guidance about what is

required. All assignments are marked using marking guidelines. When you

receive your grade it is accompanied by comments on your paper, including

advice about how you might improve, and any clarifications about matters

you may not have understood. These comments are designed to help you

master the subject and to improve your skills as you progress through your

programme.

Postgraduate assignment marking criteria

The marking criteria for your programme draws upon these minimum core

criteria, which are applicable to the assessment of all assignments:

• understanding of the subject

• utilisation of proper academic [or other] style (e.g. citation of references, or use of proper legal style for court reports, etc.)

• relevance of material selected and of the arguments proposed

• planning and organisation

• logical coherence

• critical evaluation

• comprehensiveness of research

• evidence of synthesis

• innovation/creativity/originality.

The language used must be of a sufficient standard to permit assessment of

these.

The guidelines below reflect the standards of work expected at postgraduate

level. All assessed work is marked by your Tutor or a member of academic



staff, and a sample is then moderated by another member of academic staff. Any assignment may be made available to the external examiner(s).

80+ (Distinction). A mark of 80+ will fulfil the following criteria: • very significant ability to plan, organise and execute independently a

research project or coursework assignment • very significant ability to evaluate literature and theory critically and

make informed judgements • very high levels of creativity, originality and independence of thought • very significant ability to evaluate critically existing methodologies and

suggest new approaches to current research or professional practice • very significant ability to analyse data critically • outstanding levels of accuracy, technical competence, organisation,

expression.

70–79 (Distinction). A mark in the range 70–79 will fulfil the following criteria: • significant ability to plan, organise and execute independently a

research project or coursework assignment • clear evidence of wide and relevant reading, referencing and an

engagement with the conceptual issues • capacity to develop a sophisticated and intelligent argument • rigorous use and a sophisticated understanding of relevant source

materials, balancing appropriately between factual detail and key theoretical issues. Materials are evaluated directly and their assumptions and arguments challenged and/or appraised

• correct referencing • significant ability to analyse data critically • original thinking and a willingness to take risks.

60–69 (Merit). A mark in the 60–69 range will fulfil the following criteria: • ability to plan, organise and execute independently a research project

or coursework assignment • strong evidence of critical insight and thinking • a detailed understanding of the major factual and/or theoretical issues

and directly engages with the relevant literature on the topic • clear evidence of planning and appropriate choice of sources and

methodology with correct referencing • ability to analyse data critically • capacity to develop a focussed and clear argument and articulate

clearly and convincingly a sustained train of logical thought.

50–59 (Pass). A mark in the range 50–59 will fulfil the following criteria: • ability to plan, organise and execute a research project or coursework

assignment • a reasonable understanding of the major factual and/or theoretical

issues involved • evidence of some knowledge of the literature with correct referencing • ability to analyse data • examples of a clear train of thought or argument • the text is introduced and concludes appropriately.



40–49 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases in which there is: • limited ability to plan, organise and execute a research project or

coursework assignment

• some awareness and understanding of the literature and of factual or theoretical issues, but with little development

• limited ability to analyse data

• incomplete referencing

• limited ability to present a clear and coherent argument.

20–39 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases in which there is: • very limited ability to plan, organise and execute a research project or

coursework assignment

• failure to develop a coherent argument that relates to the research project or assignment

• no engagement with the relevant literature or demonstrable knowledge of the key issues

• incomplete referencing

• clear conceptual or factual errors or misunderstandings

• only fragmentary evidence of critical thought or data analysis.

0–19 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases in which there is: • no demonstrable ability to plan, organise and execute a research

project or coursework assignment

• little or no knowledge or understanding related to the research project or assignment

• little or no knowledge of the relevant literature

• major errors in referencing

• no evidence of critical thought or data analysis

• incoherent argument.

The grading scheme: Examinations The written examinations are ‘unseen’ (you will only see the paper in the

exam centre) and written by hand, over a three-hour period. We advise that

you practise writing exams in these conditions as part of your examination

preparation, as it is not something you would normally do.

You are not allowed to take in books or notes to the exam room. This means

that you need to revise thoroughly in preparation for each exam. This is

especially important if you have completed the module in the early part of

the year, or in a previous year.

Details of the general definitions of what is expected in order to obtain a

particular grade are shown below. These guidelines take account of the fact

that examination conditions are less conducive to polished work than the

conditions in which you write your assignments. Note that as the criteria of

each grade rises, it accumulates the elements of the grade below. Assign-

ments awarded better marks will therefore have become comprehensive in

both their depth of core skills and advanced skills.



Postgraduate unseen written examinations marking criteria

80+ (Distinction). A mark of 80+ will fulfil the following criteria: • very significant ability to evaluate literature and theory critically and

make informed judgements • very high levels of creativity, originality and independence of thought • outstanding levels of accuracy, technical competence, organisation,

expression • outstanding ability of synthesis under exam pressure.

70–79 (Distinction). A mark in the 70–79 range will fulfil the following criteria: • clear evidence of wide and relevant reading and an engagement with

the conceptual issues • develops a sophisticated and intelligent argument • rigorous use and a sophisticated understanding of relevant source

materials, balancing appropriately between factual detail and key theoretical issues

• direct evaluation of materials and their assumptions and arguments challenged and/or appraised;

• original thinking and a willingness to take risks • significant ability of synthesis under exam pressure.

60–69 (Merit). A mark in the 60–69 range will fulfil the following criteria: • strong evidence of critical insight and critical thinking • a detailed understanding of the major factual and/or theoretical issues

and directly engages with the relevant literature on the topic • develops a focussed and clear argument and articulates clearly and

convincingly a sustained train of logical thought • clear evidence of planning and appropriate choice of sources and

methodology, and ability of synthesis under exam pressure.

50–59 (Pass). A mark in the 50–59 range will fulfil the following criteria: • a reasonable understanding of the major factual and/or theoretical

issues involved • evidence of planning and selection from appropriate sources • some demonstrable knowledge of the literature • the text shows, in places, examples of a clear train of thought or

argument • the text is introduced and concludes appropriately.

40–49 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases in which: • there is some awareness and understanding of the factual or

theoretical issues, but with little development • misunderstandings are evident • there is some evidence of planning, although irrelevant/unrelated

material or arguments are included.

20–39 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases which: • fail to answer the question or to develop an argument that relates to

the question set



• do not engage with the relevant literature or demonstrate a knowledge of the key issues

• contain clear conceptual or factual errors or misunderstandings.

0–19 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases which: • show no knowledge or understanding related to the question set

• show no evidence of critical thought or analysis

• contain short answers and incoherent argument. [2015–16: Learning & Teaching Quality Committee]

Specimen exam papers CeFiMS does not provide past papers or model answers to papers. Modules

are continuously updated, and past papers will not be a reliable guide to

current and future examinations. The specimen exam paper is designed to

be relevant and to reflect the exam that will be set on this module.

Your final examination will have the same structure and style and the range

of question will be comparable to those in the Specimen Exam. The number

of questions will be the same, but the wording and the requirements of each

question will be different.

Good luck on your final examination.

Further information Online you will find documentation and information on each year’s examina-

tion registration and administration process. If you still have questions, both

academics and administrators are available to answer queries.

The Regulations are also available at www.cefims.ac.uk/regulations/,

setting out the rules by which exams are governed.

DO NOT REMOVE THE QUESTION PAPER FROM THE EXAMINATION HALL

UNIVERSITY OF LONDON

CENTRE FOR FINANCIAL AND MANAGEMENT STUDIES

MSc Examination for External Students

91DFMC365

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION


Specimen Examination This is a specimen examination paper designed to show you the type of examination you will have at the end of the year for International Business Administration. The number of questions and the structure of the examination will be the same but the wording and the requirements of each question will be different. Best wishes for success on your final examination. The examination must be completed in THREE hours. Answer THREE questions. The examiners give equal weight to each question; therefore, you are advised to distribute your time approximately equally between three questions.

PLEASE TURN OVER



Answer THREE questions.

1. How does demographic structure affect the growth prospects of economies in Sub-Saharan Africa?

2. Critically evaluate the importance of agriculture in SSA’s

future economic development. 3. Outline the main structural constraints that prevent job

creation in Sub-Saharan Africa. Illustrate your answer with the example of at least

one country. 4. Why have the reduction in trade tariffs since the 1990s not led

to an upgrading of manufacturing exports from Sub-Saharan Africa?

5. Why, despite significant financial reforms since 2000, do the

financial systems of Sub-Saharan Africa remain shallow? 6. Evaluate the factors that underpin the savings–investment gap

in Sub-Saharan Africa? 7. Critically evaluate the role of governance in explaining

African economic performance, with examples from at least one country.

8. Evaluate the growth potential of Chinese investments in

Sub-Saharan Africa using a sector or country of your choice.

[END OF EXAMINATION]


Unit 1 Economic Growth and Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa

Contents

1.1 An Economic Growth Map of Sub-Saharan Afr ica 3

1.2 Histor ical Background to Economic Growth in SSA 5

1.3 Demographic Change in SSA 7

1.4 Country Studies 12

1.5 Synthesis ing the Evidence: Is Afr ica Ris ing? 14

1.6 Conclus ions 15

References and Websites 16

The Economy of Sub-Saharan Afr ica


Unit Content This first unit will introduce you to the major trends in economic performance and demographic change in the economies of sub-Saharan Africa. It will provide the historical background to modern economic development with a summary of the impact of slavery, colonialism, independence and demo-graphic change on African economies. In order for you to grasp the diversity of Africa today, we will examine two case studies of African economies, one that has attracted relatively large amounts of foreign investment and is Africa’s richest economy (South Africa) and one that has struggled with attracting investment and with demographic problems (Angola).

Learning Outcomes When you have completed your study of this unit and its readings you will be able to:

• evaluate the causes and variations in economic growth across the sub-Saharan African region

• explain why economic growth in the region has been uneven, both over time and across different countries

• discuss the main concepts and measures of demographic change and interpret population trends in the SSA region

• outline the population challenges faced by countries in SSA and evaluate their relationship to economic growth

• interpret and discuss the growth challenges of a country that has experienced rapid growth and one that has been less successful.

Readings for Unit 1

Course Reader

Morten Jerven (2010) ‘African Growth Recurring: An Economic History Perspective on African Growth, 1690–2010’, Economic History of Developing Regions, 25:2, 127–54.

Renato Aguilar and Andrea Goldstein (2009) ‘The Chinisation of Angola’, The World Economy, 32:11, 1523–62.

Johannes Fedderke and Charles Simkins (2012) ‘Economic Growth in South Africa’, Economic History of Developing Regions, 27:1, 176–208.

Globalization 101 (2011) ‘Africa Rising: Myth or Reality?’.

Unit 1 Economic Growth and Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Afr ica


1 .1 Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Afr ica Before we look at the factors that cause economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa, we would like you to first familiarise yourself with the wide variety of economic performance of the countries that make up the region. The follow-ing map (Figure 1.1) is from the African Development Bank.

Figure 1.1 GDP Current (US$ mil l ion) , 2013.

278-674

675-6551

6552-42,271

42,272-87,441

87,442-385,154

no data

Source: data from African Development Bank

We have deliberately omitted the names of the countries in order to empha-sise the variation in economic output as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) – you can however find the names of each country by going to the Bank’s website.

A country’s GDP is a monetary measure of the value of production of goods and services within an economy during a given time period (normally one year). This includes government spending, investment, consumption and net exports. In order to gauge the standard of living in an economy, economists often divide a country’s GDP by its population to find its per capita GDP. Note that although this is a good measure of living standards it is not neces-



sarily equivalent to people’s wages or disposable incomes. The African Development Bank’s website also provides a user friendly database for comparing national incomes, living standards and other economic measures across the African continent.

Economic Growth

In Table 1.1 below, we have provided figures on the growth in both real GDP (that is, GDP adjusted, to take account of changes in prices) and growth in real GDP per capita. You will note that growth in GDP per capita has been lower than aggregate GDP. This tells us that aggregate GDP is often a poor indicator of a country’s living standards. This can be for a number of reasons. A country may have a very large population, thus resulting in a low per capita GDP level. This issue is not unique to SSA and large developing countries such as China and India also have comparatively large GDP levels, but low per capita GDP. It is also possible that a large proportion of wealth generated domestically does not trickle down to the domestic population, or it may be transferred out of the economy if the country has a large percentage of foreign-owned MNCs.

Another way of looking at GDP is to examine the components that contribute or add value to GDP. As pointed out above, GDP is a measure of all goods and services produced in an economy. In order to examine what sectors contribute to GDP, we can examine the value added to GDP by individual sectors in the economy. Looking again at Table 1.1, what is the value added to GDP by such sectors as agriculture, industry manufacturing and services? Another way of interpreting the data on value added is as a measure of change in the econo-my. For example, as economies develop, a greater percentage value in GDP tends to be generated by manufacturing and services, while a lesser share tends to be generated by agriculture. You may have noted that in SSA, value added generated by agriculture has remained high, while that generated by manufacturing and services has shown a decline. To understand why this is the case, you will study the role of agriculture in the economies of SSA in Unit 2 of this course, and the prospects for change in Unit 8.

Table 1.1 Real GDP and Value Added 2004-2012, Sub-Saharan Afr ica

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012

Real GDP growth (annual %) 7.1 6.4 6.3 7.0 5.7 2.8 5.5 5.0

Real per Capita GDP Growth Rate (annual %)

4.5 3.8 3.7 4.5 3.2 0.3 3.0 2.4

Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)

17.5 17.3 17.6 17.8 19.0 19.9 18.4 19.4

Industry, value added (% of GDP)

33.8 35.7 36.1 36.0 37.6 33.1 35.5 35.7

Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)

12.6 11.8 10.8 10.3 9.2 9.5 9.2 8.2

Services, value added (% of GDP)

48.7 46.9 46.3 46.2 43.4 46.9 46.2 44.9

Source: African Development Bank



Concealed in the data in Table 1.1 are large variations both within and across economies. While it is beyond the scope of this unit to go into these variations in full detail, the following facts on the SSA region produced by the World Bank (World Bank Development Indicators, 2008) give you some indication of the scale and magnitude of these variations:

• During 2000–2006 the average GDP per capita growth in SSA was 2.0%, up from –0.7% in 1990–1999.

• The ratio of income of the richest 10% of countries to the poorest 10% of countries rose from 10.5 in 1975 to 18.5 in 2005.

• The GDP of SSA was US$744 billion, which was equivalent to 28% of China’s GDP, 69% of Brazil’s, 74% of Russia’s, and 80% of India’s.

• The economies of South Africa and Nigeria comprised 56% of SSA’s GDP.

• Mauritius has the highest life expectancy (73.2 years); Swaziland has the lowest (40.8 years).

• In 2000–2006 the electric power consumption per capita (KWh per capita) of South Africa was 4,847; Ethiopia’s was 34.4

From the above data you can see that SSA represents a vast and varied set of countries. Not only are these countries spread across a wide geographic area, but their economies show a similarly wide variety of growth experiences. These experiences reflect a wide range of factors from the effects of slavery, colonialism and independence. In this unit we first want to look at the histori-cal background.

1.2 Histor ical Background to Economic Growth in SSA Economists have long debated the reasons why and how economies grow. An influential school of thought focusing on the relationship between economic growth and the rule of law has emerged as one of the most dynamic areas of investigation. This approach has argued that there exists a long run correla-tion between economic growth and the legal protection of property rights (e.g. Acemoglu et al. 2001). Yet, even among the proponents of this approach there seems some doubt as to what parts of the rule of law promote growth. For example, Acmeoglu and his colleagues (2001: 1371) have conceded that within legal protection there exists a ‘cluster of institutions’, which includes checks on government expropriation, an independent judiciary, the protection of private property rights and institutions providing equal access to education and civil liberties that promote economic growth and development. However, this law-and-growth approach has found it difficult to explain how many economies, such as China, experience rapid growth in the absence of devel-oped legal institutions.

Another influential school argues that there is a long-term relationship between financial development and growth. This approach argues that it is a country’s financial development or the depth of its financial markets (capital and equity) that determines economic growth. This has become known as the ‘finance and growth consensus’ (e.g. Levine et al. 1997). In Unit 6 you will examine debates over the application of this consensus in SSA. For the mo-ment, however, it is worth considering how these influential schools of



thought might apply in SSA. In particular you might think of why some economies grow even though property rights protection is absent and corrup-tion rife; or indeed why some economies grow without the presence of a developed financial system? You might also think of other factors that affect growth prospects such as the effect of colonialism, national independence and famine and shortage.

A second question concerns ‘how’ economies grow. Many economists work-ing from the Neo-Classical perspective have viewed the process of economic growth as a series of stages that are almost path-dependent. An early example of this was WW Rostow’s (1960) ‘stages of economic growth’, which postulat-ed that economies achieve economic growth in five basic stages:

• from traditional society • to the pre-conditions for take-off • take-off • drive to maturity • high mass consumption.

While Rostow’s ideas (driven from an anti-communist stance) gained consid-erable popularity among US policy makers at the time, his approach has proved of limited value in explaining the growth barriers faced by developing economies. In particular, this approach was critiqued by economists such as Alexander Gerschenkron (1962) who drew on the experience of the European and Russian economies to show that growth was often discontinuous, occur-ring in spurts.

In your first reading for this unit you will see that the experience for many African economies has been not simply lack of economic growth, but rather one of discontinuous growth.

Reading

Please now read the article by Morten Jerven on the concept of growth recurring in African economies. Jerven challenges the traditional view which tends to focus on establishing the causes of chronic failure and stagnation in African economies. Instead he focuses on the idea of recurring growth at different periods of African history over different times.

Your notes should enable you to answer the following questions.

Why does growth tend to be recurring and subject to rent-seeking as opposed to permanent and sustainable?

Why do African economies tend to do better when the price of commodities is high, and worse when their prices decline?

Why does Jerven believe this has less to do with the resource base and more to do with institutional changes and the actions of political elites?

Looking specifically at the case of Ghana’s cocoa production (page 136) – explain why growth occurred, and why it was cut short.

How do the author’s findings challenge the path dependent view of growth?

Jerven’s article provides an interesting explanation for why many African economies experienced a spurt of growth post-independence, but this was not

Morten Jerven (2010) ‘Afrcan Growth Recurring: An Economic History Perspective on African Growth, 1690–2010’, reprinted in the Course Reader from Economic History of Developing Regions.



sustained. Even in those economies that have recently been successful in avoiding the so-called ‘development trap’, or bottom billion (e.g. Botswana), growth was not pre-ordained in the sense that there was nothing in the pre-existing institutional set up that would have predicted sustainable growth.

Study Note: Bottom Bi l l ion

Paul Collier, a Professor of Economics and former director of development research at the World Bank, popularised the term ‘bottom billion’ in his 2007 book. He used the term (referring to the bottom billion people trapped in poor or failing economies) to describe the development challenges facing the poorest countries, why they are failing and what policy makers could do about it. Collier argued that the so-called bottom billion faced four separate ‘traps’ including

a conflict trap

a natural resource trap

landlocked with bad neighbours

bad governance in small countries.

Colliers’s approach is subject to some definitional issues and caveats. He points out that although landlocked is listed as a trap, being landlocked is not by itself sufficient to constitute a trap. A country may be virtually landlocked without being geographically landlocked. Some countries have just a sliver of coast (Democratic Republic of Congo), whereas others such as Sudan have a coast but much of the population live a great distance from it. Collier is sceptical of the solutions offered by development aid, free trade and organisations such as the WTO.

1 .3 Demographic Change in SSA One of the shortcomings of your previous reading is that is does not specifi-cally examine the issue of population. The author Jerven notes that the absence of historic data on population makes it difficult to measure produc-tivity trends over time. This is important since it is productivity or output per worker that drives economic growth. An economy with an abundant source of labour is often thought to have an advantage and can earn a demographic dividend. But a large population also creates challenges in terms of employ-ment, food security, education and health provision.

1.3.1 Key concepts of demographic transit ion

Before analysing population trends and policies in SSA, we will have to introduce some basic demographic terms and definitions first. We will ex-plain the following terms: population size, structure and growth rate, crude death and birth rates, age-specific and total fertility rates, vital rates and rate of natural increase, migration, age structure, dependency ratio and demo-graphic investment. The subsection after that will discuss the effect of population growth on aggregate supply and demand, and the final subsection will introduce a major theoretical idea in social demography – that is, ‘the theory of demographic transition’.



Note

Please be aware that throughout subsection 1.3.2 a large number of definitional terms will be covered. You might find it helpful to note these as reference for the study of the second half of the unit.

1.3.2 Demographic terms and definit ions

When we speak of population size, we refer to the number of people that constitute the population at a particular time. This point of time is usually the end of a year, though sometimes it may refer to the year’s mid-point.

Population structure refers to some aspect of a country’s, or region’s, demo-graphic profile (e.g. geographical or sectoral distribution, or its distribution in terms of age or of sex).

The growth rate of a population is a measure of the speed with which that population is changing – usually rising – per period of time (which is usually per year). This growth rate can be expressed in percentage terms, although it is conventionally expressed per thousand.

Population growth reflects the behaviour of three demographic variables: mortality, fertility and migration. Mortality is often equated with the crude death rate (CDR), which measures the total number of deaths per period of time (most commonly, one year) divided by total population at the mid-point of that period. For example, the crude death rate for sub-Saharan Africa was 12.5 per thousand in 2010 – a decrease from 21.6 in 1970.

Mortality rates tend to follow a distinct pattern. They are generally character-ised by a relatively high incidence of death among the very young (hence, concerns about infant mortality), followed by a sharp fall to a low incidence among young age groups, leading to an eventual rise among the elderly. However, this pattern can be altered by events such as famine, war and diseases such as HIV. These events can significantly affect life expectancy and increase mortality in the adult population. For example, infant and under-five mortality rates in SSA in 2010 were 11.4 and 69 per thousand, while adult mortality was 333 per thousand.

Fertility is regarded as the single most important determinant of population change. It is correlated with a number of factors such as societal values, age of marriage, female literacy and childhood mortality. Fertility is often equated with the crude birth rate (CBR) – that is, the total number of live births per time period (usually a year) divided by total population, counted at the mid-point of that period. This measure is called the ‘crude’ birth rate, because it averages the birth rate across the entire population, regardless of age or sex.

The basic and most frequently used index of fertility is the age-specific fertility rate (ASFR). This is a basic fertility index, which relates the number of live births among women of a given age group to the total number of women of that age range. The second most popular index of fertility, called the total fertility rate (TFR), can be derived from the ASFR. It measures the average number of children (live births) born to a woman of child-bearing age (usual-ly reckoned to be from 15 to 49 years of age). As long as the children survive,



higher fertility rates translate into higher rates of population growth and a higher share of children in total population.

Birth rates and death rates are known as vital rates. The difference between them (that is, crude birth rate minus crude death rate) is known as the rate of natural increase. It measures the speed of changes in population size due to the difference between the number of births and deaths. This rate of natural increase is the most common measure of population growth.

Exerc ise

Now that you are familiar with these terms, please have a look at Table 1.2 and note the following:

the relationship between the annual rate of population change and natural increase

the crude mortality rate and the rate across infants, the under-fives and adults

Why do you think the under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and the exact age of five) is regarded as an important indicator of development?

Why do you think the adult morality rate has varied considerably while infant and child mortality has decreased?

Why do you think the annual rate of population growth remains high despite a slow-down in the crude birth rate?

Table 1.2 Populat ion, Mortal i ty and Natural Increase Sub-Saharan Afr ica

1950-55 1965-70 1985-90 1995-2000

2000-05

2005-10

Annual Rate of Population Change (%)

2.0 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7

Crude Mortality 22.7 21.6 16.3 15.7 14.8 13.0

Infant Mortality 183 144 112 102 90 79

Under-five Mortality 307 244 188 169 147 126

Adult Mortality 508 434 360 401 422 381

Crude Birth Rate 47.4 46.9 44.9 42.2 41.0 39.6

Natural Increase (000’s)

18,596 33,543 65,360 79,436 89,460 103,644

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects (2012)

Note, however, that this rate does not include the effects of migration – that is, population movements into and out of the country. When migration is included, the rate refers to total change in population size. But bear in mind that it is not only international migration that can have a significant demo-graphic impact, but also internal migration.

To speak only of the importance of mortality, fertility and migration for population growth neglects the effects of age structure. The age structure is an important population attribute, which shows the shares of various age groups within the total population. A population with a young age structure offers a built-in momentum for future population increase.

This highlights the important point that even with strict birth control measures, fertility will not quickly drop to replacement level – the level at which a woman will, on average, be succeeded by one or less than one daugh-



ter (and a man by one or less than one son). Remember too that even when fertility does start to fall, population will continue to expand, perhaps for a further 50 years or more. This too is important, for it suggests that when they come to formulate their policies, officials must take a long-term view of the relationship between population size and resources.

In terms of feeding, clothing, housing, providing health and other forms of care, it is not only the young, but also the old who make heavy demands. Hence, the importance of the dependency ratio, which is defined as the popula-tion below the age of 15 (or the minimum official age at which people can undertake paid work) and above the age of retirement (say, 65) to those of working age (15–64). The more dependent young and old people there are in a population, the more resources have to be used to provide them with those basic necessities (that is, the higher will be demographic investment).

With this in mind please have a look at the Table 1.3, outlining the dependen-cy ratio in SSA. What does this tell you about the age structure of the population and it likely impact on resources?

Table 1.3 Dependency Rat ios in Sub-Saharan Afr ica

1950 1970 1990 2000 2005 2010

Dependency Ratio (Total) 81.8 88.6 93.5 89.1 87.9 87.0

Child Dependency 76.0 83.2 87.8 83.5 82.3 81.2

Old Age Dependency 5.8 5.5 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.8

1.3.3 Population growth and its effect on aggregate supply and demand

Population growth affects an economy’s aggregate supply as well as its demand. In terms of aggregate supply (the productive capacity of an economy), population growth makes available more people to work and to produce an output. This principle reflects a lagged response at work: at any given time, the number of new entrants to the labour force reflects past vital rates. Fur-thermore, population growth affects patterns of demand – and so investment. Income distribution is also an important determinant, although a reasonable generalisation is that in societies with low levels of per capita income, more is likely to be spent on consumption than on investment.

As for the pattern of consumption, the lower the level of per capita income, the more will be spent on food than on, say, manufactured goods. Not until a certain threshold income has been reached will food requirements be satisfied – quantitatively and qualitatively – enabling consumer spending to shift towards manufactured goods.

There is also a more subtle point that has extremely important implications for growth. The faster population grows, the more investment is needed simply to maintain the existing average level of capital per member of the work force. This has implications for worker productivity, since demands for capital widening (that is, keeping per-worker availability of capital constant) rather than for capital deepening (that is, making available more capital per worker, on the basis of which improvements in labour produc-tivity can more readily take place) may inhibit rises in output per man-hour



and so constrain growth. In a developing country, half or even two-thirds of total investment may be used simply to keep up with the labour force growth – that is, to ‘stand still’ (Crook, 1997, 198).

1.3.4 The theory of demographic transit ion

The theory of demographic transition is the most important theoretical idea in social demography. It was developed in 1929 by an American demographer called Warren Thompson. Having observed changes in birth and death rates in industrialised societies, he devised a simple, but powerful, theory, which states that as economic and social development proceeds, the mortality and fertility of a country’s population typically both decline, sequentially, from high to low levels.

You should be able to identify this from Figure 1.2 below.

Figure 1.2 The Demographic Transit ion Model

CBR = Crude Birth Rate; CDR= Crude Death Rate

Source: Montgomery (2001)

The starting point is the pre-modern, pre-industrial stage, in which high fertility commonly combines with high mortality to generate slow population growth. The end-point is the post-transition, post industrial, stage, when low fertility and mortality rates generate a low rate of natural increase, implying that the absolute size and rate of growth of population have stabilised. Demo-graphic transition itself describes the process of accelerated population growth that occurs between the initial and final stages. As you can see from the figure, the underlying reason for such population growth during the urbanising/ industrialising and the mature industrial stages lies in improve-ments in mortality generally preceding a corresponding fall in fertility.

There are different views about how, most effectively, to reduce fertility and hasten demographic transition. Some argue that development itself is the most effective contraceptive – take care of the people by giving them a higher



living standard, and population will take care of itself.1 But much empirical evidence supports an alternative thesis, which suggests that post-war fertility declines in developing countries have stemmed largely from deliberate efforts to control fertility through education, propaganda and organised family-planning policies, based on the use of modern contraception.

Looking carefully at Table 1.2, try to plot where the sub-Saharan region as whole would fit. You should note that focusing on the region as a whole conceals important variations in issues such as life expectancy, mortality and demographic transition itself. Many poorer countries in the region such as Chad, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Zambia and Zimbabwe are believed to have to stalled in their transition.

AAddit ional Reading

You can read more about the demographic transition of the countries within sub-Saharan Africa in the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Documentation/publications.htm

1.4 Country Studies In this section you will study two contrasting countries – Angola and South Africa, to examine in greater detail the differences between a country that is struggling economically and one that has developed very successfully.

1.4.1 Country Study 1: Angola

We would now like you to turn to the case of a country that has been far less successful in term of economic growth than many of its neighbours. Although Angola, like many of its neighbours, has an abundance of natural resources, including gold, diamonds, petroleum, uranium and iron ore, it remains one of the region’s poorest and least developed economies. Angola has one of the lowest levels of per capita GDP in the region. This is reflected in data on absolute poverty which indicate that some 55 per cent of its population live below the poverty line

In terms of demographics Angola also performs very poorly. The average life expectancy is around 39 years, well below other economies in the region. Concealed in these figures are high levels of HIV infection as well as other diseases such as Malaria and Typhoid Fever.

Recent figures indicate that Angola has an annual population growth rate of around 2.2 per cent. There are approximately 44.5 births and 24.8 deaths per 1,000 head of population. The fertility rate is 5.9. Consider for a moment what this tells you about demographic change in Angola. What is the natural growth rate of the population? Also concealed in the natural increase is a very high infant mortality rate. There are some 184.4 deaths for every 1,000 live births.

1 The idea behind this is that those with higher incomes would not have to rely on children to

provide for them in their retirement.



Reading

To understand how Angola’s problems are reflected in its economic performance we would now like you to turn to the article by Aguilar and Goldstein. The article seeks to evaluate the emergence of China and India as large trading partners for Angola, and it will also provide you with a useful overview of how Angola initially prospered moderately from its association with Portugal, but later suffered intensely from a protracted civil war.

Please study the article answering the following questions:

The authors express some surprise that despite a protracted civil war, Angola showed a remarkable ability to grow. Are you surprised by this?

What was the downside or cost to this growth?

Why have foreign-owned oil companies gained such special concessions as protection from currency volatility?

In what way has the economic emergence of countries like China and Brazil changed the composition of Angola’s international trade?

The article suggests that the advantage of China is that it provides aid without condi-tionality – but also points out that it is important not to confuse absence of conditionality with a lack of control. What are the consequences of this control?

1.4.2 Country Study 2: South Afr ica

The South African economy has undergone considerable political and eco-nomic changes, particularly in the last two decades. Many of these changes have been positive. South Africa’s economy has performed impressively. Between 1994 and 2007 the economy delivered an average GDP growth rate of 3.6 per cent and average inflation of 6.3 per cent (compared to an average growth rate of 1.4 per cent and average inflation of 14.2 per cent between 1980 and 1994).2 The performance of the economy post 1994 has been regarded as a ‘golden period’ and a peace dividend for South Africa. These changes have also been reflected in improvements in South Africa’s population data. By 2013, South Africa’s total fertility rate had dropped to 2.34, compared to 2.68 in 2003.3 Over the same period, infant mortality fell from 62.6 to 21.7. In 2013 life expectancy stood at 59.6 years (up from 52.1 years in 2003). These improv-ing trends are also reflected in mortality rates, which have fallen considerably since 2007. For example, between 2010 and 2011 mortality decreased by 7.7 per cent.4

However, despite these improvements, the South African economy continues to face many challenges. Deaths from infectious diseases accounted for 24.8 per cent of deaths in 2010, many of these in the 15–64 age cohort. Tuberculosis alone accounted for 12 per cent of deaths in 2010. Inequality remains stub-bornly high as evidenced by the fact that although an increasing number of Africans have entered the middle-class, 85 per cent of Africans are still classed as poor, while 87 per cent of white South Africans are in the middle and

2 Goldman Sachs (2013) 3 Data source from Statistics South Africa, Mid Year Population Estimates 2013 4 See for example: http://www.southafrica.info/about/health/mortality-

190314.htm#.U2IHL6Io5zE

Renato Aguilar and Andrea Goldstein (2009) ‘The Chinisation of Angola’, reprinted in the Course Reader from The World Economy.



upper classes (this is despite the fact that the absolute number of white South Africans has declined).5 This gives us an interesting opportunity to look at economic growth.

Reading

Please now read the article by Fedderke and Simkins, which evaluates South Africa’s economic growth since 1914 using modern growth theory. This takes account of wide variety of factors such as employment and labour markets, capital stock, technological change, the determinant of investment, the contribution of human capital, fiscal and monetary policies and well as institutions and governance.

In your notes please identify the following, and answer the questions below.

the factors that have underpinned growth in South Africa

the effects of segregation and apartheid

the role of the financial sector and the potential risks in creates (you might like to related these points back to those on the finance and growth consensus earlier)

What does the author see as the contradictions between investment in capital stock and human capital?

Why might financial deepening be viewed as a positive force?

1.5 Synthesis ing the Evidence: Is Afr ica Ris ing? An interesting question that comes out of this unit is whether or not the economies in SSA are now on the rise. This is undoubtedly a complex ques-tion. Widespread poverty, weak infrastructure, high mortality rates and inequality continue to exist alongside increasing GDP, visible improvements in living standards and the inflow of investment from other emerging econo-mies like China. History also provides some important lessons on the sustainability of growth. In order to shed light on this question and synthesise the issues covered in this unit we would now like you to read the final article for this unit; a case study, ‘Africa Rising: Myth or Reality?’

Reading

Please now read the case study Africa Rising in your study pack. We would like you to use this case study alongside the material you have studied in this unit to answer the question

Is the economy of Africa rising?

In forming your conclusion we would like you to be critical in your assessment of the various views put forward in the case study. In particular, you might like to contrast the daunting challenges set out in the study with the often innovative mechanisms and partnerships used by firms to ‘leapfrog’ bottlenecks.

Are these innovations enough to drive economic growth in the absence of good industrial policies and better educations and health?

5 Goldman Sachs ‘Two Decades of Freedom: What South Africa is doing with it: And what

now needs to be done?’ November 2013

Johannes Fedderke and Charles Simkins (2012) ‘Economic Growth in South Africa’, reprinted in the Course Reader from Economic History of Developing Regions.

Globalization 101 (2011) ‘Africa Rising: Myth or Reality?’, an online article reprinted in your Course Reader



Please note your views and modify or amend them as you study the topics raised in the units that follow.

1 .6 Conclusions In this unit you have studied major aspects of economic growth and demo-graphic change in SSA. We started by introducing key terms and ideas surrounding economic growth, and then proceeded to analyse the historical growth experience of the SSA region. We then considered the question of population and key concepts surrounding the measurement of demographic change. We applied this to demographic data since the 1950s. The unit con-cluded by looking at the different growth challenges faced by two specific country studies and the prospects for the African continent as a whole. In Unit 2 we will return to a topic closely related to the growth prospects of many SSA countries – agriculture.



References and Websites Acemoglu D, S Johnson and J Robinson (2001) ‘The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation’, American Economic Review Vol. 91 (5) 1369–1401.

African Development Bank: www.afdb.org /

Aguilar R and A Goldstein (2009) ‘The Chinisation of Angola’ The World Economy 1523-62.

Collier P (2007) The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and what can be done about it, Oxford UK: Oxford University Press.

Crook, Nigel (1997) Principles of Population and Development, with Illustrations from Asia and Africa, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Fedderke J and C Simkins (2012) ‘Economic Growth in South Africa’, Economic History of Developing Regions, 27:1, 176-208.

Globalization 101 (2011) ‘Africa Rising: Myth or Reality?’, June 5: http://www.globalization101.org/

Goldman Sachs (2013) ‘Two Decades of Freedom: What South Africa is doing with it: And what now needs to be done?’ 4 November; www.goldmansachs.com/

Jerven M (2010) ‘African Growth Recurring: An Economic History Perspective on African Growth, 1690–2010’, Economic History of Developing Regions, 25:2, 127–54.

Levine R (1997) ‘Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda’, Journal of Economic Literature 35, 688–726.

Rostow WW (1990) The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto, 3rd Edition, New York: Cambridge University Press.

Statistics South Africa, Mid Year Population Estimates (2013); http://www.southafrica.info/about/health/mortality-190314.htm - .U2IHL6Io5zE

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division; http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Documentation/publications.htm

United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume II: Demographic Profiles, United Nations, New York (2013). http://esa.un.org/wpp/documentation/pdf/WPP2012_Volume-II-Demographic-Profiles.pdf

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