The Economics of Wind-Diesel Microgrids Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302 Peter Lilienthal 2011...
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Transcript of The Economics of Wind-Diesel Microgrids Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302 Peter Lilienthal 2011...
![Page 1: The Economics of Wind-Diesel Microgrids Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302 Peter Lilienthal 2011 International.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062906/5a4d1b187f8b9ab05999260d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Economics of Wind-Diesel
Microgrids
www.homerenergy.com 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Peter Lilienthal2011 International Wind-Diesel Workshop
Girdwood, AlaskaMarch 10, 2011
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The Future of PowerClean, distributed power with hybrid
renewables and smart micro-grids
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
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Clean Power Evolution
• Large utilities– Security obstacles – Regulatory obstacles
• Smaller systems– Liquid fuels from oil– High renewable penetrations
Micro-grids with distributed controls for reliability and efficiency
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
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Too Many ChoicesSolar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Geothermal
Micro-turbines
Fuel Cells
New Storage Techs.
Electric
Vehicles
Demand ResponseLoad ManagementSmart grids
Micro-grids
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
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What is best?• Depends on the application
– Resources• Especially variable and non-dispatchable renewables
– Loads– Equipment prices– Equipment performance
• A confused mind says “No!”• Requires a simple tool
– Smaller projects cannot afford complex tools
• Modeling to grow the industry2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
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Introducing HOMERHybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables
1993: Developed at NREL for Village Power1998: Released to public2009: Spun off to HOMER Energy2010: First commercial version2011: Web-based version
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System Architectures
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Decision Support Framework
Hourly Energy Balance
Simulation
Optimization
Sensitivity Analysis
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It Comes Down to Economics
• Saving oil is a more reliable business model than chasing subsidies
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
Nom
inal
Cas
h Fl
ow ($
)
Cash Flows
Year Number
Northern Pow er NW100/19DieselSurrette 6CS25PConverter
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Sensitivity
Which system is best under what conditions?
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Penetration Contribution Analysis from HOMER
Molokai (8.3 meter per second wind resource)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
0 2 4 6 8 10 12Diesel Fuel Consumption (Million liters per year)
Life
cycl
e C
ost
(US$
Mill
ions
)
High Medium Low
No Wind
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
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Foundation Costs
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Total installed turbine cost
$300,000
$600,000
$900,000
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Wind-Diesel Cogeneration
What is the minimum fuel price for wind-diesel to be cost-effective?Does it depend on the size of the thermal load?Trade-off between waste heat from genset and dump load
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Additional Insights• The challenge of renewables is not what to
do when the wind doesn’t blow. It is what to do when the wind blows too strongly
• A little bit of storage goes a long way• The highest value of storage is not load
shifting• We could have saved billions of $s killing
bad ideas quickly with more HOMER analysis
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
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Results
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Business Model
Software- Free simple version- Paid SaaS modules
Community- Sharing designs and
expertise- Blog and industry news
Services- Strategic Planning
- System Design- Market Research
Custom
Training
LeadsAds
Data on user
behavior
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Customer Segments
New users by month
• No connected grid– Islands– Remote applications
• Inadequate grid– Developing nations– Ultra-reliable applications– Micro-grids
• Smart grid– High renewable penetration– Storage– Electric vehicles
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
54,000 USERS
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
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User Base Profile
193 countries
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Status of global microgrid marketRedesigning user surveys
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Version 3
www.homerenergy.com 2334 Broadway, Suite B, Boulder, Co. 80302
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2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Dr. Peter LilienthalCEO
(720) 565-4046
HOMEREnergy.com