The Economics of Climate Change in South East Asia
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Transcript of The Economics of Climate Change in South East Asia
Climate Change in SE Asia: Costs of Action vs Inaction
John PearsonBritish High Commission
SingaporeApril 2010
Stern Review
Cost of Action:
1-2% of Global GDP to act now – but more (5-20%)
if we delay
Cost of Inaction:
Up to 20% of GDP
Climate Change Is Happening
Climate Change Is Happening
CO2 already the highest in Homo Sapien’s existence
Bronze Age Begins
(5500)Homo Sapiens Appear
(200,000)
Agriculture Begins
(10,000)
Earliest Evidence of Cooking (400,000)
Climate Change Will Continue
2050: +1.3 - 2.3ºC
2100: +2.4 - 5.0ºC
+70cm sea level by 2100
S E Asia is very vulnerable
People and economy near the sea in low lying areas (Jakarta, Manila...)
Dependent on agriculture and natural resources
High level of poverty
Typhoon Ondoy
Likely Impacts
Rice yield could decrease by 50% by 2100, threatening food security
Forest could be replaced by savannah and shrub with low carbon sequestration potential
Increased water stress and impacts on human health.
SE Asia could lose 6.7% of GDP by 2100, if non-market impacts and catastrophic
risks are also taken into account.
Adaptation
Drought and saline resistant crops
Efficient irrigation techniques
Climate proof infrastructure
Early warning systems
Adaptation Makes Economic Sense
By 2100Benefit:1.9% of GDP Cost: 0.2% of GDP
Mitigation
12% of world emissions (2000)
Will grow greatly in next 30 years
So need to tackle now
Reduce Emissions Cheaply
40% of energy-related CO2 emissions cut at “no cost” by 2020
Another 40% cut at below 1% of GDP
Win Win Options
Mangroves
Hydro PowerReservoirs
The Low Carbon Economy
www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Economics-Climate-Change-SEA/default.asp
World Average – 3.8 tCO2/capita