The Economics and RiskReduction of Plasticulture in

Vegetable Production

Dr. Lincoln Zotarelli

Associate Professor

Horticultural Sciences Department

Dr. Charles E. Barrett

Water Resources Regional Specialized Extension Agent

University of Florida

The Tri-County Agricultural Area and St. Johns River

Potato and cabbage

20,300 acres of potatoes

5,500 acres of cabbage

Potato diversity direct from the field

Broccoli and Asian vegetables

2,000 acres of broccoli/corn

??? acres of asian veg.

General Soil PropertiesTexture: 95% sand

SOM: Low <1.0 %

Clay layer

between 2-10 ft

Shallow water

table

management of water

and nutrients challenging

Seepage Irrigation

25-40 acre blocks

Irrigation furrows every 60 ft

Slow / drainage / water retention structure

Seepage Irrigation

Spatial distribution of soil moisture in the root zone and effects on potato maturation

The challenges

• Strategies for irrigation focusing on:• Water conservation

• Water quality

• Nutrient management

• Maintain of increase profit

Bareground vs. Plasticulture

Barrett et al 2015. HortScience

Seepage: 19,602 plant/ac

In-row

spacing (in)

Plant population

(plant/ac)

3-row 4-row

6 39,204 52,272

8 29,403 39,204

10 23,522 31,363

12 19,602 26,136

14 16,802 22,402

5.6 feet

2.6 feet

4.0 feet

12"17"

6”,

8”,

10”,

12”,

14”

17"

12"

Cabbage plant population vs yield

Barrett et al 2015. HortScience

Marketable yield (cwt/acre)

In-row

spacing (in)

Winter

2010yFall 2011x Winter 2011

3-rows 4-rows 3-rows 4-rows

6 476 365 A 331 A 292 A 176 B

8 579 484 A 432 B 455 A 287 B

10 616 471 A 473 A 455 A 441 A

12 619 432 A 474 A 488 A 440 A

14 595 476 A 497 A 459 A 489 A

Q** NS Q** Q** L**

zRegression analysis for the effect of in-row spacing; L, linear; Q, quadratic, * P < 0.05; ** P < 0.01; NS, not significant for L or Q.xValues followed by the same uppercase letter within each in-row spacing indicate mean marketable cabbage yield was not

significantly different (P≤ 0.05) when comparing 3-rows and 4-rows for Fall 2011 and Winter 2011 with mean separation by Tukey-

Kramer test.

Head weight (lb/head)

Winter 2010 Fall 2011 Winter 2011

In-row spacing

(in)3-rows 4-rows

6 2.34 A 1.88 B 1.76 1.69

8 2.76 A 2.21 B 2.03 2.08

10 2.87 A 2.66 A 2.22 2.26

12 3.11 A 2.93 A 2.54 2.37

14 3.33 A 3.22 A 2.80 2.66

L** L** L** L**

Cabbage plant population vs head weight

Barrett et al 2015. HortScience

zRegression analysis for the effect of in-row spacing; L, linear; Q, quadratic, * P < 0.05; ** P < 0.01; NS, not significant for L or Q.xValues followed by the same uppercase letter within each in-row spacing indicate mean marketable cabbage yield was not

significantly different (P≤ 0.05) when comparing 3-rows and 4-rows for Fall 2011 and Winter 2011 with mean separation by Tukey-

Kramer test.

Cabbage planting dates vs. plasticulture

NOVEMBER

OCTOBER

DECEMBER

SEPTEMBER

14 in

10 in

12 in

Marketable yield (cwt/acre)

Planting Date 2013-14 2014-15

SEP 507 b 612 a

OCT 579 a 501 b

NOV 448 c 376 c

DEC 418 c 628 a

Plant spacing

10 inches 454 483

12 inches 484 549

14 inches 528 556

L* ns

Planting dates vs plasticulture

State average bare ground seepage yield - 339 cwt/acParanhos et al 2016, Scientia Horticulturae.

Air

tem

pera

ture

(ºC

)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Minimum air temp.

Maximum air temp.

09/2

2

09/2

9

10/0

6

10/1

3

10/2

0

10/2

7

11/0

3

11/1

0

11/1

7

11/2

4

12/0

1

12/0

8

12/1

5

12/2

2

12/2

9

01/0

5

01/1

2

01/1

9

01/2

6

02/0

2

02/0

9

02/1

6

02/2

3

03/0

2

03/0

9

03/1

6

03/2

3

03/3

0

Sola

r R

adia

tion (

MJ m

-2 d

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Weather conditions 2013-14 Growing Season

Solar Radiation

68 F

60 F

95

86

77

68

59

50

41

32

23

Air

te

mp

era

ture

(F

)

Overall

Weather

conditionsIdeal air

temperature for

cabbage

SEP

Average air

temperature

between planting

and harvest

67 ºF

95

86

77

68

59

50

41

32

23

Air

te

mp

era

ture

(F

)A

ir tem

pera

ture

(ºC

)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Minimum air temp.

Maximum air temp.

09/2

2

09/2

9

10/0

6

10/1

3

10/2

0

10/2

7

11/0

3

11/1

0

11/1

7

11/2

4

12/0

1

12/0

8

12/1

5

12/2

2

12/2

9

01/0

5

01/1

2

01/1

9

01/2

6

02/0

2

02/0

9

02/1

6

02/2

3

03/0

2

03/0

9

03/1

6

03/2

3

03/3

0

Sola

r R

adia

tion (

MJ m

-2 d

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Weather conditions 2013-14 Growing Season

Solar Radiation

Air

tem

pera

ture

(ºC

)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Minimum air temp.

Maximum air temp.

09/2

2

09/2

9

10/0

6

10/1

3

10/2

0

10/2

7

11/0

3

11/1

0

11/1

7

11/2

4

12/0

1

12/0

8

12/1

5

12/2

2

12/2

9

01/0

5

01/1

2

01/1

9

01/2

6

02/0

2

02/0

9

02/1

6

02/2

3

03/0

2

03/0

9

03/1

6

03/2

3

03/3

0

Sola

r R

adia

tion (

MJ m

-2 d

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Weather conditions 2013-14 Growing Season

Solar Radiation

OCT

Average air

temperature

between

planting and

harvest

60 F

95

86

77

68

59

50

41

32

23

Air

te

mp

era

ture

(F

)

NOV

Average air temperature

between planting and

harvest

60 ºF

95

86

77

68

59

50

41

32

23

Air

te

mp

era

ture

(F

)A

ir tem

pera

ture

(ºC

)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Minimum air temp.

Maximum air temp.

09/2

2

09/2

9

10/0

6

10/1

3

10/2

0

10/2

7

11/0

3

11/1

0

11/1

7

11/2

4

12/0

1

12/0

8

12/1

5

12/2

2

12/2

9

01/0

5

01/1

2

01/1

9

01/2

6

02/0

2

02/0

9

02/1

6

02/2

3

03/0

2

03/0

9

03/1

6

03/2

3

03/3

0

Sola

r R

adia

tion (

MJ m

-2 d

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Weather conditions 2013-14 Growing Season

Solar Radiation

Average air temperature

between planting and

harvest

59 F

DEC

95

86

77

68

59

50

41

32

23

Air

te

mp

era

ture

(F

)A

ir tem

pera

ture

(ºC

)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Minimum air temp.

Maximum air temp.

09/2

2

09/2

9

10/0

6

10/1

3

10/2

0

10/2

7

11/0

3

11/1

0

11/1

7

11/2

4

12/0

1

12/0

8

12/1

5

12/2

2

12/2

9

01/0

5

01/1

2

01/1

9

01/2

6

02/0

2

02/0

9

02/1

6

02/2

3

03/0

2

03/0

9

03/1

6

03/2

3

03/3

0

Sola

r R

adia

tion (

MJ m

-2 d

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Weather conditions 2013-14 Growing Season

Solar Radiation

Days after transplanting

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Da

ily p

lan

t N

up

take

(kg

ha

-1 d

ay-1

)

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SEPOCTNOVDEC

2013-14 Growing Season

Ab

ove

gro

un

d N

accu

mu

latio

n (

kg

ha

-1)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014-15 Growing Season2013-14 Growing Season

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Ab

ove

gro

un

d N

accu

mu

latio

n (

kg

ha

-1)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014-15 Growing Season

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cabbage N uptake

SEPOCTNOVDEC

267

222

178

133

89

44

0

Ab

ove

gro

un

d p

lan

t N

up

take

(lb

/ac)

Days after transplanting

Cabbage yield vs. Average air temperature

Average air temperature (ºC)

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Ca

bb

age

ma

rke

tab

le y

ield

(M

g h

a-1

)

0

20

40

60

80

Yld = -1109.173 + 134.464 Tmean - 3.826 Tmean

2

r2 = 0.59 n = 31

Paranhos et al 2016, HortTechnology.

714

535

357

178

0

Ca

bb

ag

e M

ark

eta

ble

Yie

ld (

cw

t/a

c)

57.2 59.0 60.8 62.2 64.4 66.2 68.0 F

Air temperature patterns (50 yrs) during cabbage growing season

Day of the year240 260 280 300 320 340 360

Avera

ge a

ir t

em

pera

ture

100 d

aft

er

transpla

nting

(oC

)

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

Average air temperatureSDIdeal air temperature

range of optimal planting dates

78.8

75.2

71.6

68.0

64.0

60.8

57.2

53.6

50.0

Ave

rag

e A

ir t

em

pe

ratu

re o

f 1

00

da

ys

aft

er

tra

nsp

lan

tin

g (

F)

Aug/27 Sep/16 Oct/6 Oct/26 Nov/15 Dec/5 Dec/25

Paranhos et al 2016, HortTechology.

Expected cabbage yield based on variation of air temperature

Day of the year240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 350 360

Expecte

d y

ield

(cw

t/acre

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Planting date

Marketable yieldSD

5 Sept. 10 Oct. 31 Oct. 28 Nov. 26 Dec.

range of optimal planting dates

Paranhos et al 2016, HortTechology.

Economics

• Pre-harvest costs:

Seepage

$3,035/ac

Plasticulture

$4,726/ac

55%

• Drip tape + plastic mulch

+ irrigation fittings

• Fertilizer

• Transplants

• Additional labor

Paranhos et al 2016, HortTechology.

Expected cabbage yield based on variation of air temperature

Breakeven Plasticulture

Breakeven Seepage

Paranhos et al 2016, HortTechology.

Day of the year240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 350 360

Expecte

d y

ield

(cw

t/acre

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Planting date

Marketable yieldSD

5 Sept. 10 Oct. 31 Oct. 28 Nov. 26 Dec.

SE

Yield

cwt/acPrice ($/cwt)

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

SEPmean

563 4,275 4,837 5,400 5,963 6,525 7,088 7,650 8,213

OCTmean

548 4,039 4,587 5,135 5,683 6,231 6,778 7,326 7,874

NOVmean

404 1,732 2,136 2,539 2,943 3,347 3,750 4,154 4,558

DECmean

538 3,881 4,419 4,956 5,494 6,032 6,570 7,108 7,646

Estimated partial net return (pre-harvest costs) for cabbage plasticulture

Economic risk of Florida cabbage plasticulture and bareground

Overall model

Profit = (yield * price) – cost + ε

Where;

Yield = multiple regression model with

stochastic weather parameters

(temp, SR) estimated by a

multivariate empirical distribution

Price = Florida cabbage price from NASS

Cost = estimated costs from Paranhos

(2015) partial budget analyses for

Florida plasticulture and bare

ground production systems

-12,000 -9,000 -6,000 -3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000

Profit per acre

Probability Density Functions (PDFs)

Bare ground Plasticulture

Economic risk of Florida cabbage plasticulture and bareground

-12,000 -9,000 -6,000 -3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000

Profit per acre

Probability Density Functions (PDFs)

Bare ground Plasticulture

2. Higher probability

of making profit

3. Decrease in risk (based on weather multiple

regression functions of yield vs

temp, solar radiation)

1. Shift in mean

Profit simulation

Mean bare ground = $1497/acre

Mean plasticulture = $3236/acre

40%

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Profit ($/acre)

1. Shift in mean

Stoplight

40%

Greater likelihood

> $5,800/ac

$0 - $5,800/ac

< $ 0

Bare ground Plasticulture

0.23 0.63

0.74 0.33

What is the

probability of

making…

On farm demonstration cabbage

On farm demonstration

onions

On farm demonstration

butternut Bell peppers

squash

Nutsedge

Take home message• Plasticulture is a viable option for cabbage for planting

dates in Sep/Oct and Dec –

• Planting dates had different marketable yields mainly due to weather conditions

• Air temperature of 63-64 ºF and high solar radiation were ideal conditions for cabbage head development

• For plasticulture, under unfavorable weather conditions, wider in-row plant spacing is recommended to increase production

Take home messagePopulation

Population increase from 14-60%

48% yield increase

Weather dependent

Commercial application

It is feasible, more experience = fine tuning

Economics

***Cost***Plasticulture Less risky, greater likelihood increased profit

Extension education to increase adoption

Acknowledgments

40

UF-Support

• Rachel Acevedo

• Patrick Moran

• Scott Taylor

• Dana Fourman

• Hastings Crew

Graduate Students

•Lucas Paranhos (M.S. 2015)

•Charles Barrett (Ph.D.)

•Andre Biscais (Ph.D.)

Brazilian Council for Research

•Heraldo Takao (PhD. State Univ. Maringa)

Post Doc

•Guilherme Bossi

Interns

•Guilherme Paranhos

•Dario Racano

•Gabriel Santos

•Marcelo Paranhos

•Rangel Almeida

•Charles E. Kelly

Special thanks

•Horticultural Sci. Dept.

•Hastings Agricultural Extension Center

Financial Support

•USDA Block Grant

•FDACS – Ag. Water Policy

Collaborative Growers

•Tommy Miller

•Mark Barns