The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey would you ship your cargo from Istanbul to Karachi...

tepav The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey

Ussal Sahbaz

New Delhi, UNESCAP Policy Dialogue Meeting

November 28, 2013

Connecting Turkey to SSWA: ITI-(DKD) Railway Corridor

Istanbul

Frankfurt

Islamabad

Tehran

Dhakka

Mumbai

How would you ship your cargo from Istanbul to Karachi or Mumbai?

via Rotterdam

Karachi

Container train railroad

Shipping liner service

Connecting Turkey to SSWA Slide 2

Turkey’s export market penetration is directly linked to proximity: does connectivity matter?

Share of Turkey’s exports in the imports of main regions

2000-2005-2011, %

Source: UN COMTRADE,

TEPAV Calculations

Slide 3 Connecting Turkey to SSWA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

EU MENA South Asia East Asia SSWA

2000

2005

2011

A focus on Turkey’s trade to SSWA trade shows the gap

Share of Turkey’s exports in the imports of SSWA countries

2000-2005-2011, %


0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Afg

hanis

tan

Bangla

desh

Iran

Nepal

Pakis

tan

India

2000

2005

2011

Turkey has high trade costs in manufacturing goods with SSWA


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Germ

any

Fra

nce

United K

ingdom

United S

tate

s

Afg

hanis

tan

Pakis

tan

India

Nepal

Bangla

desh

Aze

rbaijan

Iran, Is

lam

ic R

ep.

Kaza

khst

an

Uzb

ekis

tan

Kyrg

yz

Republic

Tajikis

tan

World Bank Trade Cost Index / manufacturing goods (with Turkey)

average 2006-2011

Turkey is one of the few SSWA countries with supply chain connectivity improvements


0.0000

10.0000

20.0000

30.0000

40.0000

50.0000

60.0000

70.0000

80.0000

Iran

Afg

hanis

tan

Pakis

tan

India

Nepal

Bangla

desh

Bhuta

n

Turk

ey

Fra

nce

Germ

any

UK

USA

iscc2006

iscc2012

UNESCAP International Supply Chain Connectivity (ISCCI) Index, annual, 2006

and 2012

..mostly due to improvement in maritime connectivity..


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Iran Pakistan India Turkey Germany France UK USA

2006

2013

UNCTAD Liner Shipping Conectivity Index, annual, 2006 and 2013

..whereas other elements in connectivity did not catch up


0.0000

10.0000

20.0000

30.0000

40.0000

50.0000

60.0000

70.0000

80.0000

90.0000

Afg

hanis

tan

Pakis

tan

India

Nepal

Bangla

desh

Bhuta

n

Turk

ey

Fra

nce

Germ

any

UK

USA

export2006

export2012

Trading Across Borders (export), annual, 2006 and 2013

Railroads have negligible share as a mode for Turkey’s exports

Slide 9

Turkey’s exports according to transport modes, %

10112210001 1 67876578 66714

374042

394141434343464243 33

555146504950484949475047 51

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1

2000 2001 2002

Rail

Maritime

Ground

Air

Kaynak: TÜİK, TEPAV hesaplamaları

Connecting Turkey to SSWA

The connectivity matters for the market orientation: The case of inland v. Coastal Turkey

Europe,

24%

MENA,

60%

Asia;

8%

Other;

8%

Europe,

51%

MENA;

10%

Asia,

27%

Other,

12%

Europe, 78%

MENA,

12%

Asia, 4%

Source: TURKSTAT

Asia

7%

Europe

33%

MENA

44%

Other

16%

Bursa USD 11.2 billion

İstanbul USD 51 billion

Kocaeli USD 10 billion

Konya USD 1 billion

Gaziantep USD 3.6 billion Asia

8%

Europe 61%

MENA

18%

other

13%

İzmir USD 6.6 billion

Asia

11%

Europe

39% MENA 33%

Other

17%

Kayseri USD 1.1 billion


UZBEKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

KAZAKHSTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AFGHANISTAN

IRAN

PAKISTAN

TURKEY AZERBAIJAN

ARMENIA

GERORGIA

RUSSIA

INDIA

IRAQ

SYRIA

LEBANON

ISRAEL

SAUDI ARABIA

Tahran

Ankara

Quetta Zahedan

Kerman

Tebriz Malatya Kayseri

Taftan

Esfehan

İstanbul

Islamabad

Istanbul – Tehran - Islamabad Train: The route and the major bottlenecks

Zahedan

Railway conversion Taftan

Customs

Kapıköy

Customs

Van Lake

Ferry

Taftan – Quetta

Old rails


ANKARA SİVAS

MALATYA

ELAZIĞ

TATVAN

KAPIKÖY

ZANJAN

YAZD

KERMAN

MİRJAVEH TAFTAN

QUETTA

LAHORE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Tim

e (

ho

ur)

Distance (km)

total wait time: 47 hours



Test runs: Time – distance analysis of the second test run (with GPS) Ankara – Lahore: ~15 days

PAKISTAN 11,6 km/h

TURKEY 8,6 km/h

IRAN 17,6 km/h

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

days


Istanbul

Islamabad

Tehran

Dhaka

Mumbai

Towards Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad—Delhi-

Kolkata-Dhaka (ITI-DKD) Train

via Rotterdam

Karachi

Container train railroad

Shipping liner service

Kolkata


PROJECTS COMPLETED

KAPIKULE

HAMZABEYLİ

CİLVEGÖZÜ

HABUR

SARP

TOBB – GTI: Public private partnerships in border gates

NUSAYBİN

KAPIKULE BORDER GATE (Before Modernization)

KAPIKULE BORDER GATE (After Modernization)

Pillars of a new transport development approach

Transport Corridors matter

A corridor is as weak as its weakest link

Weakest links can occur at border crossings, inter-model ports, or conflict zones

Private sector should be engaged at the outset

“Build and they will come” does not work

Private sector information matters a lot for the design of the projects

Beyond a “project list”

Assessing bottlenecks

Prioritizing projects


Institutional structures for ITI-DKD Railway Corridor

Relevant international platforms

UNESCAP – SSWA Transport Connectivity

Infrastructure chapter of the Istanbul Process for Afghanistan

ECO committees

Among all, UNESCAP is the most inclusive international platform

Countries

Policy themes

Steps taken so far

Pre-feasibility

Trilateral consultation and coordination platform

Test runs

Next steps

Identifying resource requirements to overcome major bottlenecks

Legal and administrative arrangements (transport & transit agreements)

Fundraising


END

Connectivity in the Mediterranean Slide 19

BALO will start twice a week block trains from Edirne to Munich on August 16, 2013

Land

Duration:5-6 days;

Cost: 3,100 €

Rail

Duration: 8-9 days;

Cost: 2,367 €

RoRo + Land

Duration: 8 days; Cost: 2750 €

Germany

(Koln)

Mersin

Gaziantep

Source: ecotransit, googleearth, TEPAV Calculations

Sea

Duration: 14-16

days; Cost: 2,055 €

Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 20

istanbul

Frankfurt

Moscow

Helsinki

Baku

Xinjiang

Beijing

Big Picture: Modern Silk Road

Turkmenbashi

Aktau


istanbul

Frankfurt

Dhaka

Mumbai

Moscow

Helsinki

Baku

Xinjiang

Beijing

Conflicts over the Modern Silk Road

Islamabad

Turkmenbashi

Aktau


Current

railways

Required railway construction

Baku

Kirkovan

Delican

Corridor 1: Kirkovan – Delican - Baku

Corridor 2: Kars – Nakhcivan - Baku

Nakhcivan

Erivan

A Focus on the Caucasia: East - West


Innovative approaches: 2010 Afghan – Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (one way corridor from Afghanistan to India)

Slide 24 Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA

istanbul

Frankfurt

Dhaka

Mumbai

Moscow

Helsinki

Baku

Xinjiang

Beijing

Recent conflict in Syria brought further obstacles

Islamabad

Turkmenbashi

Aktau


Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA

28



Fransa

Almanya

İtalya İspanya

Belçika

Hollanda

Polonya

Romanya

Ukrayna

Bulgaristan

Yunanistan

İsviçre

Çek Cum.

Avusturya Macaristan

Hırvatistan

Bosna-

Hersek

Sırbistan

Arnavutluk

Belarus

Litvanya

Slovak Cum. Moldova


29

For a train carrying 1050 tons of

goods or more and travelling 1050

km of distance or more, railroad

transportation is less costly than

road transportation.

In this respect, for a freight train

leaving from Tekirdag, optimal

distance is Romania-Crotatio

region and beyond.

6

Milyar

11,5

Milyar

2,4 Milyar

2 Milyar

1,9

Mil.

1,5 Mil.

0,8 Mil

.

0,7

Mil

% 31.5 of Turkey’s total

exports in 2010 are

done to this region. Source: TÜİK, 2010 foreign trade statistics.

Figures of 500 million USD and more are shown.

BALO neden önemli?

France

Germany

Belgium

Holland

Poland

Switzerland

Czech Rep.

Austria 6

Billion

11,5

Billion

2,4 Billion

2 Billion

1,9

Mil.

1,5 Mil.

0,8

Mil

0,7

Mil

%4,46

%5,82

%11,05

%3,21

%4,41

%9,86

%4,12

%8,15

In 2010, only %5

of Turkish exports

to the region were

done from

Ankara,

Gaziantep, Konya

and Kayseri.

Source: TÜİK, 2010 foreign trade statistics.


France

Germany

Belgium

Holland

Poland

Switzerland

Czech Rep.

Austria

31

6

Billion

11,5 Bil.

2,4

Bil.

2 Billion

1,9

Mil.

1,5 Mil.

0,8

Mil

0,7

Mil

%79,29

%77,45

%72,62

%82,94

%85,30

%70,64

%70,39

%73,83

In 2010, %80 of

Turkey’s exports

to the region were

done from

İstanbul,

Bursa, Eskişehir,

Denizli, İzmir and

Manisa.

BALO neden önemli?

Source: TÜİK, 2010 foreign trade statistics.


32

• Bursa

• Kayseri

Gaziantep l

• Manisa

• İzmir

• Ankara

• Konya • Denizli

OKCUGOL Konsolidasyon Merkezi l



Border gates modernization: TOBB GTI

Public – private partnerships in gate modernization and management

TOBB GTI is a company owned by the chambers of commerce

PPP model:

TOBB GTI signs build-operate-transfer protocols with the Government

TOBB GTI builds, operates, and transfers back the gate infrastructure

Duration is around 20 years, varies with the volume of the gate

Infrastructure includes duty free, cafes, scanners, etc


PROJECTS COMPLETED

KAPIKULE

HAMZABEYLİ

CİLVEGÖZÜ

HABUR

SARP

COMPLETED PROJECTS

NUSAYBİN

PROJECTS COMPLETED DİLUCU BORDER

GATE

ESENDERE BORDER GATE

KAPIKÖY BORDER

GATE

RECENT PROJECTS

ÇILDIR – AKTAŞ

BORDER GATE

MURATBEY LOGISTICS

CENTER

KAPIKULE BORDER GATE (Before Modernization)

Fast crossing: IRU TIR-EPD (Pilot: Kapikule to Bulgaria since Nov 2012) NEXT PROJECT: Single window (w Georgia)


The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey would you ship your cargo from Istanbul to Karachi...

Documents

Transcript of The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey would you ship your cargo from Istanbul to Karachi...