The economic crisis fades while SA enter growth everything is not … · 2016-08-28 · The...
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The economic crisis fades while SA enter growth everything is not roses yet – Mike Schussler Economists.co.za www.economists.co.za 1
Transcript of The economic crisis fades while SA enter growth everything is not … · 2016-08-28 · The...
The economic crisis fades while SA enter growth everything is not roses yet – Mike Schussler Economists.co.za
www.economists.co.za 1
World economy.
The end of the world recession.
South Africa.
Growth and inflation.
Something on the Rand.
Kwa Zulu Natal.
Comparison with other SA provinces.
Some shorter term indicators.
Confidence indicators.
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1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
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The global economy has returned to positive growth following dramatic declines. The recovery is uneven and not yet self-sustaining
in advanced economies.
Financial conditions have continued to improve, but are still far from normal.
Going forward, the global economic recovery is expected to be sluggish with low inflation.
Emerging economies, need to deal with capital inflows and stronger currencies.
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The advance economies spent over $4,2 trillion on bank bailouts or guarantees.
Industrial bailouts while smaller in size added around $500 billion to government debt.
Job programs or infrastructure spend helped save millions of jobs but not enough to stop a dramatic rise in unemployment.
Government debt levels increased substantially
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11/30/2009 www.Economists.co.za
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Average growth since 1950
GDP
Long term GDP growth trend on the up.
South African growth breaks on the upside of the long-term average.
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SA CPI chart
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11.3
7.3
8.1 8.2 8.1 7.7
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Northern Cape
North West
Mpumalanga
Limpopo
Free State
GDPR at market prices
Eastern Cape
KwaZulu-Natal
Western Cape
Gauteng
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-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
Mining and quarrying
Electricity and water
Wholesale & retail trade; hotels & restaurants
Manufacturing
Community, social and other personal services
All industries at basic prices
Transport and communication
General government services
Finance, real estate and business services
Construction
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
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100
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Mil
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8/1
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KwaZulu-Natal
Gig
aw
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rs
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-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
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0.0
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40.0
50.0
Jan
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Ma
r-0
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Ma
y-0
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Jul-
06
Se
p-0
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No
v-0
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Jan
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Ma
r-0
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Ma
y-0
7
Jul-
07
Se
p-0
7
No
v-0
7
Jan
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Ma
r-0
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Ma
y-0
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Jul-
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Se
p-0
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No
v-0
8
Jan
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Ma
r-0
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Ma
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Jul-
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p-0
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South Africa KwaZulu Natal
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-60.0
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40.0
60.0
80.0
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Oct
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No
v-0
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De
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Jan
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Ma
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Ap
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Jun
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Jul-
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Oct
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Jan
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b-0
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Ma
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Ap
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Jun
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KwaZulu Natal South Africa
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80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
Jan
-01
Ma
y-0
1
Se
p-0
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Jan
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Ma
y-0
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Se
p-0
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Jan
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Ma
y-0
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Se
p-0
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Jan
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Ma
y-0
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Se
p-0
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Jan
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Ma
y-0
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Se
p-0
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Jan
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Ma
y-0
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Se
p-0
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Jan
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Ma
y-0
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Se
p-0
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Jan
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Ma
y-0
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Se
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Jan
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Ma
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p-0
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500
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29.0
31.0
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200
5/09
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200
6/03/0
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7/03/01
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7/09
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South Africa KwaZulu/Natal
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2010 will also now be a tough year.
We expect growth just over 1% if 45% hike given.
We see 2,5% growth limit to 2012, with current Eskom price proposal.
2014 may be the first sustainable year of 4% + growth again.
Kwa-Zulu Natal should have a slightly higher rate of growth
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Questions.
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