The economic crisis fades while SA enter growth everything is not … · 2016-08-28 · The...

32
The economic crisis fades while SA enter growth everything is not roses yet Mike Schussler Economists.co.za www.economists.co.za 1

Transcript of The economic crisis fades while SA enter growth everything is not … · 2016-08-28 · The...

The economic crisis fades while SA enter growth everything is not roses yet – Mike Schussler Economists.co.za

www.economists.co.za 1

World economy.

The end of the world recession.

South Africa.

Growth and inflation.

Something on the Rand.

Kwa Zulu Natal.

Comparison with other SA provinces.

Some shorter term indicators.

Confidence indicators.

Summary.www.Economists.co.za 2

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Source: IMF WEO 2009www.Economists.co.za 3

The global economy has returned to positive growth following dramatic declines. The recovery is uneven and not yet self-sustaining

in advanced economies.

Financial conditions have continued to improve, but are still far from normal.

Going forward, the global economic recovery is expected to be sluggish with low inflation.

Emerging economies, need to deal with capital inflows and stronger currencies.

4www.Economists.co.za

The advance economies spent over $4,2 trillion on bank bailouts or guarantees.

Industrial bailouts while smaller in size added around $500 billion to government debt.

Job programs or infrastructure spend helped save millions of jobs but not enough to stop a dramatic rise in unemployment.

Government debt levels increased substantially

5

www.Economists.c

o.za

www.Economists.co.za 6

www.Economists.co.za 7

11/30/2009 www.Economists.co.za

www.Economists.co.za 9

www.Economists.co.za 10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Average growth since 1950

GDP

Long term GDP growth trend on the up.

South African growth breaks on the upside of the long-term average.

www.Economists.co.za 11

www.Economists.co.za 12

SA CPI chart

www.Economists.co.za 13

11.3

7.3

8.1 8.2 8.1 7.7

6.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

www.economists.co.za 14

www.Economists.co.za 15

www.Economists.co.za 16

17www.Economists.co.za

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

Northern Cape

North West

Mpumalanga

Limpopo

Free State

GDPR at market prices

Eastern Cape

KwaZulu-Natal

Western Cape

Gauteng

18www.Economists.co.za

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Mining and quarrying

Electricity and water

Wholesale & retail trade; hotels & restaurants

Manufacturing

Community, social and other personal services

All industries at basic prices

Transport and communication

General government services

Finance, real estate and business services

Construction

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

www.Economists.co.za 19

20www.Economists.co.za

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Mil

lio

ns

21www.Economists.co.za

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

200

7/0

9/0

1

200

7/10

/01

200

7/11

/01

200

7/12

/01

200

8/0

1/0

1

200

8/0

2/0

1

200

8/0

3/0

1

200

8/0

4/0

1

200

8/0

5/0

1

200

8/0

6/0

1

200

8/0

7/0

1

200

8/0

8/0

1

200

8/0

9/0

1

200

8/1

0/0

1

200

8/1

1/0

1

200

8/1

2/0

1

200

9/0

1/0

1

200

9/0

2/0

1

200

9/0

3/0

1

200

9/0

4/0

1

200

9/0

5/0

1

200

9/0

6/0

1

200

9/0

7/0

1

200

9/0

8/0

1

200

9/0

9/0

1

KwaZulu-Natal

Gig

aw

att-h

ou

rs

22www.Economists.co.za

-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Jan

-06

Ma

r-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Jul-

06

Se

p-0

6

No

v-0

6

Jan

-07

Ma

r-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Jul-

07

Se

p-0

7

No

v-0

7

Jan

-08

Ma

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Jul-

08

Se

p-0

8

No

v-0

8

Jan

-09

Ma

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Jul-

09

Se

p-0

9

South Africa KwaZulu Natal

23www.Economists.co.za

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Se

p-0

7

Oct

-07

No

v-0

7

De

c-0

7

Jan

-08

Fe

b-0

8

Ma

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Jun

-08

Jul-

08

Au

g-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Oct

-08

No

v-0

8

De

c-0

8

Jan

-09

Fe

b-0

9

Ma

r-0

9

Ap

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Jun

-09

Jul-

09

Au

g-0

9

Se

p-0

9

KwaZulu Natal South Africa

24www.Economists.co.za

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

Jan

-01

Ma

y-0

1

Se

p-0

1

Jan

-02

Ma

y-0

2

Se

p-0

2

Jan

-03

Ma

y-0

3

Se

p-0

3

Jan

-04

Ma

y-0

4

Se

p-0

4

Jan

-05

Ma

y-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Jan

-06

Ma

y-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Jan

-07

Ma

y-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Jan

-08

Ma

y-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Jan

-09

Ma

y-0

9

Se

p-0

9

25www.Economists.co.za

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

www.Economists.co.za 26

27www.Economists.co.za

17.0

19.0

21.0

23.0

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

33.0

200

5/09

/01

200

6/03/0

1

200

6/0

9/0

1

200

7/03/01

200

7/09

/01

200

8/03/0

1

200

8/0

6/0

8

200

8/0

9/15

South Africa KwaZulu/Natal

www.Economists.co.za 28

www.Economists.co.za 29

www.Economists.co.za 30

2010 will also now be a tough year.

We expect growth just over 1% if 45% hike given.

We see 2,5% growth limit to 2012, with current Eskom price proposal.

2014 may be the first sustainable year of 4% + growth again.

Kwa-Zulu Natal should have a slightly higher rate of growth

31www.Economists.co.za

Questions.

www.Economists.co.za 32