“The Economic and Market Outlook for 2014” · “The Economic and Market Outlook for ... Global...

NGFA Country Elevator Conference December 10, 2013

Presentation by Terry N. Barr, Senior Director, Knowledge Exchange Division, CoBank 1

Presentation by: Terry Barr, Senior Director of Industry ResearchKnowledge Exchange Division, CoBank, ACBE-mail: [email protected]

NGFA Country Elevator Conference

“The Economic and Market Outlook for

2014”

Chart source: Knowledge Exchange Division, CoBank, ACB (confidential and proprietary)Data source: World bank

0

50

100

150

Agriculture commodity index (2010=100)

6 0 6 2 6 4 66 6 8 7 0 72 7 4 76 7 8 80 82 8 4 8 6 8 8 90 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 00 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 18

Old Normal

RisingGlobal

Middle class

EconomicTurmoil2009‐13

PolicyRealignment2014‐18

Global Economy, Peaking Ethanol and Larger Grain Stocks Will Trigger Market Transition

?



Chart source: Knowledge Exchange Division, CoBank, ACB (confidential and proprietary)

U.S. Economy and Agriculture Faced Significant Turmoil Over The Past Decade … What’s Ahead?

2004‐2008:“Rising Middle Class”Rapid global growth fueled by rising middle class in China and emerging markets.

Stimulative fiscal and monetary policies

Sharply declining U.S. $

Rising financial leverage & “irrational exuberance”

Rising commodity demand & trade

Rapid growth in biofuels

Declining grain stocks

Rising U.S. meat exports

2009‐2013:“Economic Turmoil”Financial crisis/recession.

Global fiscal deficits and debt reach critical levels.

Massive liquidity / near‐zero interest rates

Continuing emerging market growth/demand

U.S. consumer tempering spending & deleveraging.

Biofuels growth slowing

Reduced crops force low grain stocks‐to‐use, boosted price volatility and insulated crop sector. Stressed livestock/dairy.

Chart source: Cumberland Advisors

The Central Banks Have Added $6‐7 Trillion to Balance Sheets and Provided Zero Interest Rates

Monthly Central Bank Assets (billion $ equivalents) for U.S., Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank from June 2006 to October 2013



Advanced Economies Have Run Massive Deficits and Pushed Debt to Unsustainable Levels

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Percent (fiscal balance as percent of GDP)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Percent (Net government debt as percent of GDP

Fiscal Deficit Net Government Debt

RisingMiddleClass

2004‐08Avg.=4.5%

EconomicTurmoil2009‐13Avg.=2.9%

Confidential and Proprietary 6Chart source: Knowledge Exchange Division, CoBank, ACB (confidential and proprietary)

The Global Economy Experienced Subpar Growth With Significant Vulnerabilities

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

-2

0

2

4

6

Percent change in annual world growth (purchasing-power parity rates)

Advanced countries Rest of world China India




* C u r re n c ie s w e ig h te d b y re la t iv e m a rk e t im p o rta n c e to to ta l U .S . t ra d e .

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Indexes of major currencies/US$ (March 1973=100)

8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 87 4 7 6 7 8 1 0 1 2 1 4

From 2002 to 2011 ………....... ‐38 %From August 2011 bottom

to October 2013 ..… +10 %

Declining Value of U.S. Dollar Since 2002 Boosted Dollar Denominated Commodities

Dollar declined by over 25% after floating in 1973!


U.S. Economy and Agriculture Faced Significant Turmoil Over The Past Decade … What’s Ahead?

2004‐2008:“Rising Middle Class”Rapid global growth fueled by rising middle class in China and emerging markets.

Stimulative fiscal and monetary policies

Sharply declining U.S. $

Rising financial leverage & “irrational exuberance”

Rising commodity prices, demand & trade

Rapid growth in biofuels

Declining grain stocks

Rising U.S. meat exports

2009‐2013:“Economic Turmoil”Financial crisis/recession.

Global fiscal deficits and debt reach critical levels.

Massive liquidity / near‐zero interest rates

Continuing emerging market growth/demand

U.S. consumer tempering spending & deleveraging.

Biofuels growth slowing

Reduced crops force low grain stocks‐to‐use, boost price volatility and insulate crop sector. Stressed livestock/dairy.

2014‐2018:“Policy Realignment”Rising fiscal austerity and major global policy shifts. Geopolitical realignments.

Reduced global liquidity, rising interest rates and more currency volatility.

Subdued growth in China and emerging markets.

U.S. consumer recovering.

Bio‐fuels plateauing with new energy paradigm

Global grain/oilseed stocks rebuilding. Protein and dairy realigning. Price volatility continues



PolicyRealignment2014‐18???

RisingMiddleClass

2004‐08Avg.=4.5%

EconomicTurmoil2009‐13Avg.=2.9%

Confidential and Proprietary 9

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

-2

0

2

4

6

Percent change in annual world growth (purchasing-power parity rates)

Advanced countries Rest of world China India


A Fragile Global Economy Will Experience Subpar Growth With Significant Vulnerabilities

The Global Economy Continues to Struggle With Major Unresolved Strategic Issues

Xi Jinping

New President of China

Ben Bernanke

FED PresidentJohn Boehner

Majority Leader

Harry Reid

Senate Leader

U.S. President

Angela Merkel

German Chancellor

Mario Draghi

ECB PresidentChristine Legarde

Managing Director IMF

Mother Nature & Black Swans

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

Europe: Debt/deficits/austerity; Merkel victory sets stage; ECB promises whatever it takes and

cuts rates! Out of recession but …..

Japan: devaluation;

central bank QE actions; debt and consumption tax; more stimulus?

China: Leadership transition; slower

exports limit growth; transition to

consumer sector as driver; vulnerable

shadow banking and new reform agenda.

U.S.: Policy inaction limits growth;

debt/deficit debate may continue for

years; immigration, health care, farm bill, etc. pending; Federal Reserve tapering.

Fracking /horizontal drilling bring new energy paradigm!.

India

Brazil

Russia

Emerging markets

Emerging markets weakening as trade and capital flows

slow




China’s New Leadership Must Manage Transition to Consumer‐Led Economy


Xi JinpingNew President of China

Nov. 9th

3rd plenum of communist party normally sets the reform agenda:

• Solidify political control.• Rural land reform; mechanization

of agriculture.• Reform financial services & banking.

• Reorganize energy (oil & gas) sector.

• Free trade zone in Shanghai.• Pollution cleanup and control.


9.8

11.3

12.7

14.2

9.69.2

10.4

9.3

7.8 7.6 7.3

93-02 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

Percent growth rate per year


Chinese Growth Likely to Remain Subdued As Advanced Economies Remain Weak

Fiscal stimulus may be needed to stay

above 7%!



U.S. Economy Can’t Sustain Momentum

Ben Bernanke

FED PresidentJohn Boehner

Majority Leader

Harry Reid

Senate Leader

U.S. President

Deficit / Debt and Major Policy Issues Require Balancing Austerity with Growth and Jobs and

Removing Pressure on Monetary Policy

14

U.S. Economic Policy Inaction Creates Headwinds for Economic Growth!

U.S. can’t get beyond short term deficits to address major policy reform:

Risk management and investment strategies cannot deal with policy vacuum. Companies can measure and adjust to risk based on actual policy decisions!

Financial sector Financial sector regulatory reform implementation

Energy sector New energy paradigm; Fracking & horizontal drilling technology change fossil and renewable roles!!

Immigration Reform groundwork being laid for 2014

Health care sector Affordability Care Act, Medicare / Medicaid reform?

Regulatory oversight Increasing regulation; Clean air & water, Food safety

Deficit reduction

Changing tax policy and entitlement programs (including farm and food programs).


Trade Agreements TPA vote; Trans-Pacific (TPP); Trans-Atlantic (TTIP)



-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Percent change in quarterly Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2005$)*

* S e a s o n a lly a d ju s te d a t a n n u a l ra te2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 22 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4

60‐70% of U.S. economic growth comes from consumer spending:

Debt, unemployment, home values and political uncertainty will limit 2013 growth!


Economy May Build Momentum Into 2014 But Economic Growth Will Remain Uneven

3.6%

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Percent (debt-to-income)

400

480

560

640

720

800

880

960

1040

1120

Percent (net worth-to-income)

D e b t-to -In c o m e

N e t W o rth -to -in c o m e

Consumption growth will track income growth with slow credit expansion. Consumer seems more comfortable with debt level and home prices are up 13% from year earlier. But jobs and income growth are issues?

Debt Has Been Reduced; Net Worth Is Above Pre‐recession Levels But Consumer Cautious




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Annual percentage change

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 0402 06 08 10 12 1480

A verage increase = 8 .4% Average increase = 5 .4% Average increase = 4 .8% Average increase =

3 .3%

Disposable Personal Income Increases Have Been Weak in 2013


18

-750

-500

-250

0

250

500

Change in nonfarm payrolls (thousand)

Monthly change 12-month moving average

8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2

* B u s in e s c y c le tro u g h s : N o v 1 9 8 2 , M a rc h 1 9 9 1 , N o v e m b e r 2 0 0 1 a n d J u n e 2 0 0 9 .

0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4

November Job Gains Strong; Unemployment Rate Declines But Participation Low

203,000 jobs created in November!(196,000 in private sector)

(averaged 191,000 for last 12 months)


Unemployment rate = 7.0 %Underemployment = 13.2%Participation rate = 63.0% Average duration = 37.2 weeks




Unemployment Rate Coming Down Slowly Excess Capacity Remains in Labor Markets

2

4

6

8

10

12

Percent rate of unemployment

unemployment rate

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

R e ces s ion s

12 14

Fedtarget

Home Prices Edge Higher as Price Momentum Continues Building

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Monthly S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index

2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 02 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 32 0 1 2


September housing prices were 13.3% above a year ago; 20% below peak.20th consecutive monthly increase after declines in previous 20 months!



0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

2.25

2.5

Million starts per quarter, seasonally adjusted

7 0 7 2 7 4 7 6 7 8 8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 40 2 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4

Housing Rebound Gaining Momentum In Benign Interest Rate Conditions


Corporate Profits Weakening; But Investment and Housing Have Good Potential Into 2014

1999200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Billion dollars in profits; investment at annual rates

Business fixed investment

Corporate profits (after tax)

Residential investm ent

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Chart source: Knowledge Exchange Division, CoBank, ACB (confidential and proprietary)



Policy Paralysis Is Limiting Growth!White House

Congress

U.S. Federal Reserve

U.S. Treasury Department


The government is open and will be funded though Jan. 15, 2014 at current levels.

The Federal debt ceiling is raised until Feb. 17, 2014.

A House‐Senate committee will issue a budget resolution by Dec.13, 2013.

Only a small deal to replace sequester cuts for next two years. No grand bargain for long term!

Kick the can to 2015.

Kick the Can to 2015 or Lay Groundwork for Long Term Budget Agreement?




81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

Deficit in billion dollars

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

-6 %-5 .3 %

-2 .4 %

R e a g a n C lin to nG . B u s h

G .W . B u s h

S o u rc e : C o n g re s s io n a l B u d g e t O ff ic e (S e p te m b e r , 2 0 1 3 ) , B E A a n d T re a s u ry D e p a r tm e n t a n d fo re c a s t

D e f ic it a sp e rc e n to f G D P

P e rc e n t o f G D P

O b a m a

-1 1 %

Assumptions: phase‐out in Iraq/ Afghanistan American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 Sequestration

American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 Reduces Deficit With Sequestration; But Problems Ahead

2013 Deficit estimate

Farm Bill Finish Line in Sight But Major Issues Still Need to be Resolved

Farm Bill could be a stand alone bill with savings directed to budget resolution or it could be incorporated into a budget agreement.

Conference continues but bill may not come until 2014???SNAP, dairy and programs to replace direct payments at issue!!



Monetary Policy Uncertainties ContinueU.S. Federal Reserve

U.S. Treasury Department


28Chart source: Knowledge Exchange Division, CoBank, ACB (confidential and proprietary)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Percent

1 0 -y e a r T re a s u rie s

F e d e ra lF u n d s R a te

9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 40 3 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 90 8 1 21 0 1 1 1 3 1 4

Federal Reserve Will Continue To Promote Growth and Employment in 2014‐15

Extend near‐zero rate guidance to mid‐2015. Total of $85 bil. per month in purchases in 2013. 6.5 % target unemployment; inflation below 2%!

Federal Reserve actions:



Federal Reserve Will Continue To Promote Growth and Employment in 2014‐15

Chart source: Cumberland Advisors

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Percent rate

1 0y e a r

7y e a r

5y e a r

3y r

2y r

1y r

3 0y e a r

2 0y e a r

J a n , 2 0 1 0

J a n , 2 0 0 7

J a n , 2 0 1 1J a n , 2 0 0 8

J a n , 2 0 1 2

N o v . 2 0 1 3

J a n . 2 0 1 3

+ 7 5 b a s is p ts .

Yield Curve Moves on Expectations of Tapering in The Near Future





2013 Crop Prospects Are Signaling Transitions in Grain/Oilseeds and Animal Protein/Dairy


70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

0

100

200

300

400

500

Million metric tons of wheat & coarse grains

0

8

16

24

32

40

Stocks-to-use percentage

World stocks Stock/use

A Recovery in Global Grain Stocks Will Require Two Years of Large Harvests

One good harvest will not remove volatility!



70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

Million metric tons of wheat and coarse grains


Global Grain Supplies Have Been Driven By Non‐U.S. Production Increases

Since 2007 U.S. grain production has been at or below the 2007/08 level every year but may be 6% above in 2013/14!

Since 2007 non‐U.S. grain production has been volatile but above the 2007/08 level every year and may be 19% above in 2013/14!

U.S. grain output

Non‐U.S. grain output

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Million metric tons or bales

C o a rse g ra in s

W h eat

S o yb ea n s

C o tto n28% to China

66% to China

Exports Continue to be Major Driver of Markets But Pace of Growth is Question




35

Reduced Coarse Grain Supplies and Large Wheat Feeding Have Boosted Wheat Market



70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

0

50

100

150

200

250

Million metric tons of wheat

0

8

16

24

32

40

Stocks as percent of use

Reduced Global Wheat Harvests and Strong Feed Demand Will Limit 2013 Stocks Buildup




70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Billion bushels

E n d in g s to c k s

To ta l u s e

P ro d u c tio n

Continued Strong Wheat Feeding and Exports Will Draw U.S. Stocks Lower in 2013/14

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

Million metric tons


D o m e s tic u s e

P r o d u c tio n

N e t e x p o r ts

23% of world trade

FSU‐12 Countries Have Become Significant Wheat Exporters But Production is Volatile

(Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine are major exporters in group)Chart source: Knowledge Exchange Division, CoBank, ACB (confidential and proprietary)



39

Large U.S. Corn Crop Shifts Focus to Demand Side Concerns


75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Billion bushels

Production Total Use Free stks Gov't stks

Corn Stocks Rebounding With Large Harvest, Stagnate Ethanol and Rising Feed and Exports





70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Billion bushels of corn

Feed and residual

E xports

Foo d, seed & industria l

E thano l

D D G 's

Sharp Recovery in Feed Use and Exports Is Key Boost to Corn Demand in 2013/14

Year‐over year change :2012 2013

Corn price … +12% ‐ 31%Feed use ….. 0% + 20%Exports ……. ‐ 53% + 91%Ethanol ……. ‐ 7% + 5%

Animal protein and dairy sectors have bridged to large 2013/14 harvest but cattle inventory limits feed growth.


87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Million metric tons of coarse grains

FSU ‐12

U .S.

O ther major non ‐U .S. exporters*

Brazil

* Argentin a, Austra lia , C anada and S outh Africa

Increased Export Competition From Other Countries Requires Demand Growth




Soybean Market Balancing Large South American Crop With China Demand


70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Million metric tons

B ra z il a n d A rg e n tin a

U n ite d S ta te s

W o rld

Another Record Large South American Crop Would Pressure Soybean Market Lower




70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Million metric tons of soybeans

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Stocks-to-use percentage

Ending stocks Stocks-to-use

Projected World Soybean Stocks Reflect Record S. American Crop and China Demand

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

-75

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

Million metric tons


D o m e s tic u s e

P ro d u c tio n

N e t e x p o rts

China’s Appetite for Soybeans is Major Market Driver and Source of Volatility

In the last 10 years domestic consumption has more than doubled and imports have tripled with no significant increase in

domestic production!




75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

Billion bushels

Production Total Use Stocks

Strong Export Demand for U.S. Soybeans Will Limit Increase in Ending Stocks in 2013/14


ExportMarkets

Export Reliance:Emerging marketsDisease (FMD)U.S. $ reboundRising competitionTrade disputes

Feed Costs:Low stocksRising price volatilityYield/weather issuesEthanol

Low Cattle Inventory, Record Exports and Lower Feed Costs Spur Meat and Dairy Sectors




73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Million head of inventory

20

22.5

25

27.5

30

32.5

35

Billion pounds

J a n u a ry 1 C a ttle in v e n to ry

B e e f p ro d u c tio nlo w e s t s in c e 1 9 5 2

Liquidation Phase of Cattle Cycle Signaling Less Beef Output

50

Pork and Broiler Sectors Riding Wave of Reduced Beef Supplies Lower Feed Costs


74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Billion pounds

B ee f

P o rk

B ro ile rs -1 .2 -5 to -7%

- 0 .5 + 2 to + 4%

C h an g e in 2 013 201 4

+ 2 .0 + 3 to + 4%

B eef

P o rk

B ro ile rs

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2 0 to +1

Percent change in total meat output



2013 Crop Prospects Are Signaling Transitions in Grain/Oilseeds and Animal Protein/Dairy

The Transition Path from Tight Supplies is Linked to South America, Demand Shifts and 2014 Crops


South American 2013/14 crop outcome; infrastructure issues.

Growth rate of Chinese grain and oilseed demand.

Rate of expansion in U.S. animal protein and dairy sectors.

Global economic conditions, currency movements and capital flows impacting emerging markets. (Driven by shifts in fiscal, monetary and economic policies including trade.)

Acreage realignments in the U.S., particularly corn/soybeans. (farm program incentives, prices & weather are factors.)

Non‐U.S. grain production, particularly in the exportable surplus countries.

Global and domestic weather variability.Chart source: Knowledge Exchange Division, CoBank, ACB (confidential and proprietary)

What Will Drive the Transition in 2014?




1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Index (1990-92=100)

P r ic e s re c e iv e d : c ro p s

P ric e s p a id *

*P r ic e s p a id c o m m o d it ie s & s e rv ic e s , in te r e s t , ta x e s a n d w a g e ra te s

P r ic e s re c e iv e d : l iv e s to c k

Sector is operating at higher price and cost levels with greater volatility …… more working capital to play, less leverage permitted and more emphasis on well-

defined risk management policies!

Larger Crop Supplies Bringing Price Realignment But Potential Volatility Remains


Farm Income Remained Strong in 2013 With Better Balance Among Sectors

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Billion dollars

N et Farm C ash Incom e

D irect g ov ernm en t paym ents*

* em erg en cy paym en ts are striped area o f go vernm en t p aym en ts)

Improving margins in the protein and dairy sectors limited income declines in 2013. Net cash income was second highest on record in 2013. However lower grain and oilseed prices could push incomes lower in 2014.



Balance Sheet of Agriculture is Better Prepared for Volatility and Transition

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Billion dollars

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Billion dollars

C h a n g e 1 9 7 0 -1 9 8 0

A s s e ts ... + 2 5 9 %D e b t ....... + 2 3 5 %

C h a n g e 1 9 8 0 -1 9 9 0

A s s e ts ... -1 6 %D e b t ....... -1 9 %

C h a n g e 1 9 9 0 -2 0 0 0

A s s e ts ... + 4 3 %D e b t ....... + 2 5 %

F a rm a s s e ts(le ft s c a le )

F a rm d e b t(r ig h t s c a le )

C h a n g e 2 0 0 0 -2 0 1 0

A s s e ts ... + 9 6 %D e b t ....... + 7 0 %


Change 2010-2013Assets …. +28%Debt ……....+11%

“The Economic and Market Outlook for 2014” · “The Economic and Market Outlook for ... Global...

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Transcript of “The Economic and Market Outlook for 2014” · “The Economic and Market Outlook for ... Global...