The East European Consumer Paul Flatters, CEO, The Future Foundation June 2007.

The East European Consumer

Paul Flatters, CEO, The Future FoundationJune 2007

Presentation structure

• Economic well being and life satisfaction• Socio-demographics• Values and attitudes• Leisure, tourism and travel

24643: Mobility and Movement

Correlation between satisfaction with life vs. satisfaction with the economy

By countrySee notes pages for an explanation of this map

Luxembourg

Norway

FinlandIreland

Denmark

Sweden

NetherlandsBelgium

AustriaSpainUK

Slovenia

Germany

Czech Rep.Greece

France

Poland

Portugal

Slovakia

Hungary

Estonia

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9Satisfaction with life – mean score

Sat

isfa

ctio

n w

ith e

cono

my

–m

ean

scor

e

Northern

Western Central

Southern

Eastern

Northern

Western Central

Southern

Eastern

Source: European Social Survey/nVision ResearchBase: 1,000 per country aged 15+, 2005


Satisfaction with life forecast: CEE 13 vs EU 15% who are very satisfied or fairly with the life that they lead2006-based nVision forecast – “On the whole are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied or not at all satisfied with the life you lead?”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%1

99

9

20

00

20

00

20

01

20

01

20

01

20

01

20

02

20

02

20

02

20

03

20

03

20

04

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

CC-13 EU 15

Source: Eurobarometer/nVisionBase: 29,000 aged 15+


Positive expectations for the next 12 months – Life in generalIndex by age in relation to the national average who thinks that their life in general will get better in the next 12 months “What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will he next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it comes to…your life in general?”

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Po

rtu

ga

l

Gre

ece

Ge

rma

ny

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Sp

ain

UK

De

nm

ark

Fra

nce

Italy

Sw

ed

en

Ire

lan

d

Bu

lga

ria

Slo

vaki

a

Lith

ua

nia

Po

lan

d

Slo

ven

ia

Cze

ch R

ep

La

tvia

Cro

atia

Est

on

ia

Hu

ng

ary

Ro

ma

nia

15-24 25-39 40-54 55+

Source: Eurobarometer/nVisionBase: 1,000 per country aged 15+, 2007

Yet for affluent consumers life is already changing beyond recognition

http://www.adamsons-skoda.co.uk/Fabia.html

Size of CEE economies (population)

38 Million

10 Million

10 Million

5 Million

2 Million

3.7 Million2.7 Million

1.3 Million

22 Million

8 Million

148 Million

Population over 65 years as a % of total

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Slo

ve

nia

Cze

ch

Re

p

Hu

ng

ary

Lit

ha

nia

Ro

ma

nia

La

tvia

Po

lan

d

Slo

va

kia

Ru

ss

ian

Fe

d

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

2030 2035 2040

Source: World Bank/nVision

…but the big story of demographics is not the ageing of the population…

Population decline in transition economies

60

70

80

90

100

110

CzechRep

Hungary Lithuania Latvia Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia RussianFed

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040


Russia’s demographic meltdown

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

130000

140000

150000

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

45

20

50

20

55

20

60

20

65

20

70

20

75

20

80

20

85

20

90

Number of people, World Bank forecast


Life expectancy

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

Russia UK

Source: WHO/nVision 2003

At Birth

Importance of being rich

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Gre

ece

Sp

ain

Ire

lan

d

UK

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Fin

lan

d

Sw

itze

rlan

d

Sw

ed

en

Po

rtu

ga

l

No

rwa

y

Po

lan

d

Hu

ng

ary

Slo

ven

ia

Cze

ch R

ep

.

Male Female

Proportion who say it is like/very much like them to want to have a lot of money and expensive things, by gender within country

Source: The European Social Survey/nVision 2003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%D

en

ma

rk

Italy

Sp

ain

GB

No

rwa

y

Ire

lan

d

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Sw

ed

en

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Po

lan

d

Ru

ssia

Cze

ch R

ep

.

Hu

ng

ary All

To be able to afford something To fulfil yourself

Proportion who chose a main wish from a list of five given options, by country

"If you had just one wish, which one of these would you choose?"

Source: nVision ResearchBase: 11,000 aged 15+ / 3,500 aged 16+ (Nordic), 2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Sp

ain

Ire

lan

d

Italy

Ge

rma

ny

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Fra

nce

No

rwa

y

Sw

ed

en

De

nm

ark

GB

Po

lan

d

Hu

ng

ary

Cze

ch R

ep

.

Ru

ssia All

15-34 35-54 55+

Source: nVision ResearchBase: 11,000 aged 15+ / 3,500 aged 16+ (Nordic), 2007

Proportion who feel a strong or moderate need to own more things than they have now, by age“For each item, will you tell me whether you feel the need for it strongly, moderately, slightly, or not at all?” To own more things than I have now

20316:

Perception of luxury in Europe: East Vs. West“Looking at all these things, can you tell me, for you, which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life?… and which of the others is the second best description, if any?"

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Materialism Enrichment Time

Western Europe Eastern Europe

Source: nVision ResearchBase: 11,000 aged 15+ / 3,500 aged 16 + (Nordic), 2007


‘Going on expensive holidays’ as the best description of luxury% who choose it as the best or second best description of ‘luxury’ in their life, by country“I would now like you to think about what ‘luxury’ means to you. Looking at all these things, can you tell me, for you, which of the following things would be the best description of 'luxury' in your life? And which of the others is the second best description of luxury in your life?”

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%S

pa

in

Italy

No

rwa

y

Sw

ed

en

Fra

nce

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Ire

lan

d

Ge

rma

ny

GB

De

nm

ark

Hu

ng

ary

Cze

ch R

ep

Ru

ssia

Po

lan

d

All

Source: nVision ResearchBase: 11,000 aged 15+ / 3,500 aged 16+ (Nordics), 2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ge

rma

ny

UK

Ita

ly

Fra

nce

Sp

ain

Sw

ed

en

Ru

ssia

Po

lan

d

Hu

ng

ary

Cze

ch

Re

p

Traditional attitudes towards gender roles

Proportion who agree slightly or strongly that a man’s role is to earn money and a woman’s to look after the home, by country

Source: Changing Lives in Europe’, nVisionBase: 1000 aged 15+ per country, 2003

“Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with each of the following statements I read out…A man’s job is to earn money; a woman’s job is to look after the home and family?”

Ethical purchasing

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Po

rtu

ga

l

Gre

ec

e

Sp

ain

Ire

lan

d

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

UK

No

rwa

y

Fin

lan

d

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Sw

ed

en

Slo

ve

nia

Po

lan

d

Hu

ng

ary

Cze

ch

Re

p.

Source: The European Social Survey 2003

% Bought product for political /ethical/ environment reason last 12 months

Importance of leisure time in people’s lives % who claim leisure time is very important, by country

“Please say for each of the following how important it is in your life…Leisure time”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%S

love

nia

Ma

lta

Cyp

rus

Hu

ng

ary

Cze

ch R

ep

Est

on

ia

La

tvia

Po

lan

d

Slo

vaki

a

Lith

ua

nia

Ro

ma

nia

Bu

lga

ria

2000 2007

Source: European Value Study/Eurobarometer/nVisionBase: 1,000-2,000 per country aged 15+, 2007

Tourists to other countries in Europe, % by region

E a s te rn E u ro p e

3 9 %E U 1 56 1 %

Source: World Tourism Organisation/nVision

Czech Rep23%

Russia18%

Poland26%

Hungary12%

Turkey5%

Romania*5%

Bulgaria3%

Lithuania*2% Other

6%

In 2005 there were 1 million Polish tourists visiting the UK

CEE tourists to other countries in Europe, % by country

In 2005 there were 13 million more

tourist from the CEE than in 2002


International tourism expenditureIn US$ million

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

Northern Europe Western Europe

Central/Eastern Europe Southern Europe

Source: World Tourism Organisation/nVision

23860: Travel and Tourism in Europe

% who have bought package holidays, by countryIn the last 12 months“In the last 12 months, have you purchased a package holiday that is a combination of transport and accommodation from a company based in the EU?”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%D

en

ma

rk

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Au

stria

Ire

lan

d

Sw

ed

en

Be

lgiu

m

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Ge

rma

ny

Fin

lan

d

UK

Italy

Sp

ain

Fra

nce

Po

rtu

ga

l

Cze

ch R

ep

Slo

ven

ia

Slo

vaki

a

Cyp

rus

Est

on

ia

Ma

lta

Hu

ng

ary

La

tvia

Po

lan

d

Lith

ua

nia

EU

25



Interest in different types of holiday in Czech Rep. and Poland

EU= 12 countries

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

Cze

ch R

ep

Po

lan

d

EU

Cze

ch R

ep

Po

lan

d

EU

Cze

ch R

ep

Po

lan

d

EU

Cze

ch R

ep

Po

lan

d

EU

Source: nVision ResearchBase: 1,000 per country aged 15+, 2005

Cultural Health farm SpecialistAdventure


Importance of experiencing the authentic culture on holidays, by country

% who agree / strongly agree“Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with each of the statements that I read out…When I go on holiday, the most important thing for me is to experience the authentic culture of a place”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

De

nm

ark

Fin

lan

d

No

rwa

y

Sw

ed

en

Fra

nce GB

Ge

rma

ny

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Ire

lan

d

Italy

Sp

ain

Po

lan

d

Hu

ng

ary

Cze

ch R

ep

Ru

ssia All

Agree strongly Agree sligthly

Source: nVision ResearchBase: 11,000 aged 15+ / 5,000 aged 16-64 (Nordics), 2006

Using the internet for travel related activities

% of internet users who have used the internet for travel services or to order travel and accommodation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Fin

lan

d

No

rwa

y

UK

Sw

ed

en

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Ge

rma

ny

Ire

lan

d

Au

stria

Sp

ain

Fra

nce

Italy

Gre

ece

Slo

ven

ia

Cze

ch R

ep

Slo

vaki

a

Est

on

ia

Hu

ng

ary

La

tvia

Cyp

rus

Lith

ua

nia

Po

lan

d

Bu

lga

ria

EU

25

EU

15

Services related to travel ans accommodation Ordered travel and accommodation

Source: Eurostat annual survey on ICT/nVisionBase: Internet users aged 15+


Language skills% who can speak at least another language, by country“Which languages do you speak well enough in order to be able to have a conversation, excluding your mother tongue?”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Slo

vaki

a

La

tvia

Lith

ua

nia

Slo

ven

ia

Est

on

ia

Cze

ch R

ep

.

Po

lan

d

Hu

ng

ary

Speaks at least one foreigh language Speaks English



% considering moving to another EU country to work or study or after retirement, by country

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Sw

ed

en

De

nm

ark

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Fin

lan

d

Be

lgiu

m

UK

Ge

rma

ny

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Au

stria

Fra

nce

Ire

lan

d

Italy

Gre

ece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

La

tvia

Lith

ua

nia

Po

lan

d

Est

on

ia

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

Hu

ng

ary

Cze

ch R

ep

EU

25

After retirement To work Study

Source: Eurobarometer/nVisionBase: 24,642 aged 15+, 2005

“Have you, yourself, ever considered living in another Member State in order to study/work/after retirement?”


Willingness to move to another EU country to find employment

% who answered 'yes'"Would you be willing to move to another EU country to find employment if you were unemployed?"

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Sw

ed

en

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Fin

lan

d

UK

Italy

Fra

nce

Be

lgiu

m

Sp

ain

Ge

rma

ny

De

nm

ark

Gre

ece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Ire

lan

d

Au

stria

Po

lan

d

Lith

ua

nia

La

tvia

Ma

lta

Slo

ven

ia

Slo

vaki

a

Est

on

ia

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep

Hu

ng

ary

EU

25

Source: Eurobarometer/nVisionBase: 24,642 aged 15+, 2005

Summary

• CEE consumers still display distinctive characteristics – but attitudes and behaviours are converging with those in the west

• Continued convergence not inevitable – highly dependent on continued economic growth

• CEE not at the leading edge of many trends such as ethical purchasing and show more traditional attitudes towards consumption, materialism and luxury

• Leisure and tourism is an increasing consumer spending priority – though again not as likely to be looking for ‘leading edge’ holiday experiences

• Highly mobile younger populations create a strong VFR market

The East European Consumer Paul Flatters, CEO, The Future Foundation June 2007.

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Transcript of The East European Consumer Paul Flatters, CEO, The Future Foundation June 2007.