THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS AND CHANGE: THE IQALUIT LAND USE MONITORING PROJECT

Dr James D. Ford, Graham McDowell, Jamal Shirley www.jamesford.ca

Background

¨  Key theme in scholarship: CC and subsistence hunting ¨  Baseline understanding

¤  Widespread evidence of CC and impacts (safety, food security, culture) ¤  Vulnerability / resilience mediated by socio-economic factors

¨  Deficiencies in understanding (see Ford & Pearce 2012, The Canadian Geographer) ¤  Static understanding yet vulnerability dynamic (e.g. adaptive learning,

feedback, thresholds) ¤  Nature of climate - impact links not fully understood

¨  Methodological limitations ¤  Retrospective study design (recall bias, seasonal influences) ¤  Absence of longitudinal studies, reliance of limited field seasons

2

The Iqaluit Land Use Monitoring Project (ILMP)

¨  Obtain real-time longitudinal data on Inuit-environment interactions to understand how climate risks are experienced and managed

3

GPS Tracking 4

¨  2 full-time hunters equipped with GPS ¨  2007 – ongoing

Regular interviews 5

¨  >100 post hunt interviews ¨  Examine GPS data, review land use, dangers

encountered, coping mechanisms employed etc.

Accompanied hunting trips 6

¨  Team members go hunting during all seasons

Instrumental data

¨  Use of local weather station data and CIS ice charts

7

Results: Land-use 8

¨  2008-2010: >21,000km travel ¤  70% by snowmobile,

average trip107km ¤  30% boat, average

trip 99km

Ford et al (in review, AAAG)

Results: Changing env. conditions 9

¨  1982-2010 ¤ 50 days later

freeze up ¤ 70 days more

open water ¤ Declining wind

predominance

¨  Hunting team ¤  Ice instability ¤ 2010/11

extremes

Ford et al (in review, AAAG)

Results: Access constraints & opportunities

10

¨  Trail network “choke points”

¨  2010/11 many hunting areas inaccessible

Ford et al (in review, AAAG)

Results: Terrestrial adaptation 11

¨  Caribou in Amadjuak Lake region in Nov-Jan ¤ Sustainability:

hunting pressure, CC, & caribou

¤ Land hazards ( snow, river freeze up (e.g. 2008))

Ford et al (in review, AAAG)

Results: General observations (1) 12

¨  Co-occurence of climatic extremes problematic ¤ e.g. Nov-Dec 2010: late freeze-up, 38 days lost to high

winds, Amadjuak Lake trail impassible till Dec

¨  High adaptability: flexibility, TK

¨  Hunting team are keystone individuals ¤ Broad importance for Iqaluit

¨  Importance of income: damaged equipment replaced, extra distance costs incurred (e.g. vs Igloolik)

Results: General observations (2) 13

¨  Potential for ‘trajectories of maladaptation’ (Fazey et al 2011) ¤ Short-term adaptability may result in long term

vulnerability ¤ Donwstream effects: displacing impacts to future ¤ Overspecialized adaptations susceptible to a new

stressor (e.g. caribou)

Conclusion 14

¨  Analyzed 2008-2010 data (see Ford et al., in review, Annals Assoc. of American Geographers)

¨  Future ¤ Focus on 2010/11 ¤ Continued monitoring ¤ Aim: 10 years

Thank You 15

Thank You

Acknowledgments: Josh Atagoyuk, Levi Pisuktie, Udlu Pisuktie, Tristan Pearce, Bill Gough, Rick Siewierski, Sara Statham, Frank Duerden, Mike Pitre, ArcticNet, SSHRC, NRI, IPY