THE DRIVING FORCE MOST LIKELY TO SHAPE

SOUTH AFRICA’S FUTURE

Charlaine Baartjes

Driving forces for change

ExternalInternal DRIVERS

Internal

External

RE

SP

ON

SE

S

External driving forces

Internal

External

External

Internal DRIVERS

RE

SP

ON

SE

S

Emergence or strengthening of

economic/political blocs

Alignment with Superpowers

External driving forces for changeGlobal economic power Global political power

Internal driving forces for change

People

PlanetProsperity

Internal

External

External

Internal DRIVERS

RE

SP

ON

SE

S

Internal driving forces for change Competition for declining resources (relating to the

biophysical environment)

Changing in social fabric (impacting on human sense of space and development)

The success or failure of South Africa’s economic prosperity (linked to manufacturing strength); and

Governance.

In essence SD

Economic Prosperity

Competition for limited resources

Change in Social Fabric

Governance

Competition for limited resources

Our ecological footprint

The direct, threats to biodiversity are

habitat loss,

overexploitation of species,

Pollution,

the spread of invasive species or genes, and

climate change.

Competition for limited resources

Competition for limited resources

Industry or People

Pro-Industry

Consumption

Pro-Poor

Pri

ce

New Allocation Criteria for scarce inputs?

Pro Environment Pro- People Pro-Economic

GWh/ton waste GWh/jobs created GWh/%GDP

GWh/ton CO2 emissions Ml/jobs created Gross Fixed Capital Formation/GWh

% Ml top up Jobs/GWh consumed Foreign Income/GWh

% Co-generated

Electricity (kWh/GWh)

Reduction in energy per unit of product

Cleaner Production Audit

EMS

Competition for limited resources

Economic Prosperity

Young Not So YoungUn

emp

loym

ent

%•Political emphasis on creation of new jobs but not preserving existing jobs.•Rapid growth of workforce.•Creation of temporary jobs and public sector jobs•Capital investment in skills intensive technology

•Cost of LRA compliance - R8400/employee/year ??•Strengthening the weak by weakening the strong” – SAIRR•Large corporations replaced by agile enterprises

GROWTH INEQUALITY

JOBLESS GROWTH

STRESSED PRIVATESECTOR

Economic Prosperity

43%

45%

47%

49%

51%

53%

Poverty headcount index 0.501 0.505 0.517 0.531 0.512 0.51 0.521 0.508 0.514 0.49 0.476 0.469 0.445 0.432

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Economic Prosperity

Male

0500000100000

0

150000

0

200000

0

250000

0

300000

0

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Female

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Change in

Social Fabric

>20%

>20%

>20%

>20%

>20%

>20%

>20%

>20%

<0%

<0%

<0%

<0%

<0%

Male Female

Change in Social Fabric

SOCIAL FABRIC COLLAPSE - Inequality-Crime-Social dislocation

POVERTY ALLEVIATION -Land Reform -Job Creation-Housing Reform -Industrial Development-Welfare Reform -Enterprise Support

DE FACTO GOVERMENT The role of the private sector as proxy for government agencies

VS

Profit$ or Potholes

50.00%

55.00%

60.00%

65.00%

70.00%

75.00%

80.00%

Male unemployed 51.90% 60.50% 61.60% 65.60% 61.10% 58.10% 56.70%

Female unemployed 64.60% 72.50% 75.00% 75.40% 75.60% 72.10% 70.80%

Total unemployed 58.00% 66.60% 68.30% 70.60% 68.20% 65.20% 63.70%

00-Sep 01-Sep 02-Sep 03-Sep 04-Sep 05-Sep 06-Sep

Change in Social FabricUnemployment as a % of the population 15-24 years

THE DRIVING FORCE MOST LIKELY TO SHAPE SOUTH AFRICA’S FUTURE

GovernmentResponse

Economic Prosperity

Competition for limited resources

Change in Social Fabric

Internal driving forces for changeDriving force Response

Competition for declining resources

Changes in social fabric

Success or failure of South Africa’s economic prosperity

Governance

Section 24 Constitution

Poverty alleviation

Growing the economy

Policies and legislation

Our role in response to the internal driving forces for change

Driving force Our role

Competition for declining resources

Changing in social fabric

Success or failure of South Africa’s economic prosperity

Governance

Impact assessments – Nick King proposal

Social Impact Assessment

Economic reasons to go green; Cleaner production

Advise and contribute to legislative process

THANK YOUCharlaine Baartjes

www.ecopartners.co.za

Environmental Economics Resource EconomicsEnvironmental Authorisation Cost Benefit AnalysisCleaner Production Commodity Strategy