The Depression in Finland in the 1990susers.econ.umn.edu/~tkehoe/classes/FinlandITAMFeb09.pdf ·...
Transcript of The Depression in Finland in the 1990susers.econ.umn.edu/~tkehoe/classes/FinlandITAMFeb09.pdf ·...
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The Depression in Finland in the 1990s
Juan Carlos Conesa Timothy J. Kehoe
Kim J. Ruhl
ITAM February 2009
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Real GDP per Working Age Person in Finland
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
inde
x (1
989
= 10
0)
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Understanding the Finnish Depression
Base case: neoclassical growth theory
Cole and Ohanian (1999, 2002), Kehoe and Prescott (2007)
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Expanded and revised version of the RED 2002 volume. Data and programs available at
www.greatdepressionsbook.com
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Understanding the Finnish Depression
Base case: neoclassical growth theory
Cole and Ohanian (1999, 2002), Kehoe and Prescott (2007)
Extensions: following Kiander and Vartia (1996)
1. Bad policy: labor market policies, especially labor taxes
--add taxes and government spending
2. Bad luck: collapse of Soviet Union
--add terms of trade shocks, trade balance shocks
3. Bad banking: banking crisis in 1991-94
--add investment sector, shocks to investment production
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Overview of the Results
Base case model • Accounts for 51% of fall in output • Cannot account for decrease in labor during crisis • Labor input is too high after the crisis
Model with taxes and government spending • Accounts for 136% of fall in output • Labor falls too much during crisis • Labor input recovers to the level in the data
Model with terms of trade shocks • Accounts for 72% of fall in output • Cannot account for decrease in labor during crisis labor • Labor input is too high after the crisis
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The Growth Model
Households choose { }, ,t t tC K L
( ) ( ) ( )( )0
max log 1 logt t tt TC hN Lβ γ γ∞
=+ − −∑
( )1s.t. 1t t t t t tC K w L r Kδ++ = + − + Technology 1
t t t tY A K Lα α−= Feasibility
( ) 11 1t t t t t tC K K A K Lα αδ −++ − − =
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The Balanced Growth Path
1 11t t tt
t t t
Y K LAN Y N
αα
α−
− ⎛ ⎞ ⎛ ⎞= ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠
When 11t tA g Aα−+ =
• t
t
KY
and t
t
LN
are constant
• t
t
YN
grows at rate 1g − , assume 1 0.02g − = as in U.S.
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Growth Accounting for the United States
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
inde
x (1
960=
100)
output
productivity
hours worked
capital
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Growth Accounting for Finland
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
inde
x (1
980
= 10
0)
productivity
output
capital
hours worked
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Growth Accounting Summary
Data Crisis 1980-89 change in Y/N 2.92 due to TFP 3.13 due to K/Y -0.17 due to L/N -0.03 Crisis 1989-93 change in Y/N -3.14 due to TFP 0.05 due to K/Y 2.77 due to L/N -5.96 Recovery 1993-2005 change in Y/N 3.33 due to TFP 4.04 due to K/Y -1.58 due to L/N 0.87
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Base Case Model
Standard Growth Model
• TFP is exogenous, foreseen o computed from data
• Population growth rates exogenous, foreseen o from the data
Calibrate using 1970-80 data
• 0.359α = , 0.975β = , 0.285γ =
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Real GDP per Working Age Person in Finland
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
inde
x (1
980=
100)
data
base case model
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Capital/Output Ratio in Finland
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
ratio
data
base case model
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Hours Worked per Working Age Person in Finland
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
hour
s per
wee
k
data
base case model
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Growth Accounting Summary
Data Model
Base Case Crisis 1980-89 change in Y/N 2.92 3.18 due to TFP 3.13 3.13 due to K/Y -0.17 -0.07 due to L/N -0.03 0.12Crisis 1989-93 change in Y/N -3.14 -0.50 due to TFP 0.05 0.05 due to K/Y 2.77 1.54 due to L/N -5.96 -2.09Recovery 1993-2005 change in Y/N 3.33 4.01 due to TFP 4.04 4.04 due to K/Y -1.58 -0.39 due to L/N 0.87 0.35
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Model with Taxes and Government Spending Add 4 exogenous and foreseen variables • Government expenditures, G • Consumption tax, cτ
• Labor income tax, τ
• Capital income tax, kτ
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Marginal Tax Rates
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
rate
labor tax
capital income tax
consumption tax
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Detrended Real GDP per Working Age Person in Finland
80
90
100
110
120
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
inde
x (1
989=
100)
data
open model
open model with constant terms of trade
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A Model with Taxes and Government Spending Households choose { }, ,t t tC K L
( ) ( ) ( )( )0
max log 1 logt t tt TC hN Lβ γ γ∞
=+ − −∑
( )1s.t. (1 ) (1 ) 1 (1 )( )c kt t t t t t t t t tC K w L r K Tτ τ τ δ++ + = − + + − − +
Government budget constraint
( )c kt t t t t t t t t tC w L r K G Tτ τ τ δ+ + − = +
Feasibility
11 (1 )t t t t t t tC K K G A K Lα αδ −++ − − + =
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Tax Model Calibration
Taxes computed as in Mendoza, Razin, and Tesar (1994) Prescott (2002): marginal rate = average rate * 1.6
What to do with government spending?
1. Set 0tG = , taxes are lump sum rebated to households
2. Set tG from national accounts data Exogenous productivity is no longer “TFP”
1t t t
tt t
C I GAK Lα α−
+ += , “GDP at factor prices”
TFP is measured with real GDP, ˆ (1 )ct t t tTY C I Gτ= + + +
Recalibrate β , γ
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Exogenous Productivity, Detrended
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
inde
x (1
989
= 10
0)
base case = TFP
model with taxes and government
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Real GDP per Working Age Person in Finland
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
inde
x (1
980=
100)
data
model with taxes
model with taxes and government
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Capital/Output Ratio in Finland
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
ratio
datamodel with taxes and government
model with taxes
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Hours Worked per Working Age Person in Finland
10
14
18
22
26
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
hour
s per
wee
k
data
model with taxes and government
model with taxes
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Growth Accounting Summary
DataModel
Base CaseModelTaxes
Model Taxes & Gov’t
Crisis 1980-89 change in Y/N 2.92 3.18 1.09 1.62 due to TFP 3.13 3.13 3.43 3.30 due to K/Y -0.17 -0.07 0.77 0.76 due to L/N -0.03 0.12 -3.11 -2.44Crisis 1989-93 change in Y/N -3.14 -0.50 -5.45 -4.79 due to TFP 0.05 0.05 0.66 0.50 due to K/Y 2.77 1.54 2.46 2.26 due to L/N -5.96 -2.09 -8.56 -7.55Recovery 1993-2005 change in Y/N 3.33 4.01 4.11 4.07 due to TFP 4.04 4.04 3.60 3.82 due to K/Y -1.58 -0.39 -2.07 -2.06 due to L/N 0.87 0.35 2.58 2.31
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Economy overreacts to taxes
• Output falls by too much: 4.79% vs. 3.14% in data
• Hours worked falls by too much: -7.55% vs. 5.96% Explanations
• In Scandinavia, revenues used to fund subsidies and transfers to workers, lowering the effective tax rate. Ragan (2005) and Rogerson (2007)
• Utility functions with lower labor supply elasticity. Conesa and
Kehoe (2007) Post-crisis labor allocation is correct • Long run response to tax rates Prescott (2002), Ohanian, Raffo,
and Rogerson (2006)
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Open Economy Model Crisis was accompanied by
• Depreciation of terms of trade
• Reversal of the trade balance
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Price of Imports/Price of Exports in Finland
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
inde
x (1
980=
100)
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Net Exports
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
shar
e of
GD
P (%
)
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Open Economy Model
Two kinds of goods:
• Imports ( goodsm − )
• Domestically produced goods ( goodsd − ) Domestic good is the numeraire
• The terms of trade, mp , is exogenous
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Open Economy Model Households
( ) ( )( )0
max log 1 log( )tt t tt T
C hN Lβ γ γ∞
=+ − −∑
1s.t. ( (1 ) )t t t t t t t t tq C q K K w L r Kδ++ − − = +
Domestic Good Technology
1t t t t t tZ X B A K Lα α−+ + =
Feasibility
( )( )1
1 ,(1 ) 1t t t t d t tC K K D Z Mρ ρ ρδ ω ω++ − − = + −
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The firm’s problem
,,min Z
t tt m t tZ M
p M+
( )( )1
s.t. Y 1t t t tD Z Mρ ρ ρω ω≤ + −
Investment-consumption good price
( )1
1 11 1 11
,1t t m tq D p
ρρ ρ
ρ ρρω ω
−− −
− − −−⎛ ⎞
= + −⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠
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Open Economy Model Calibration
Exogenous processes
• Terms of trade, ,m tp , from data
• Productivity in investment-consumption sector, tD , from data
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Relative Prices in Finland
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
inde
x (2
000=
1.0)
imports
exports
pp
cons inv
exports
pp
+
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Open Economy Model Calibration
Exogenous processes
• Terms of trade, ,m tp , from data
• Productivity in investment-consumption sector, tD , from data
• Productivity in the domestic sector, tA
Exogenous productivity is
( ) ( )( )11
1
1t t t t t
tt t
C I D M XA
K L
ρ ρ ρ ρρ
α α
ω ω−
−
−
+ − − +=
TFP is calculated with real GDP: ( ) ,t̂ t t t tT m TY q C I X p M= + + −
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Detrended Exogenous Productivity Factor
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
inde
x (1
989
= 10
0)
at export prices
at inv.-cons. prices
base case
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Detrended Real GDP per Working Age Person in Finland
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
inde
x (1
989=
100)
data
balanced trade model
exogenous trade balance model
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Capital/Output Ratio in Finland
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
ratio
data
balanced trade model
exogenous trade balance model
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Hours Worked per Working Age Person in Finland
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
ratio
data
balanced trade model
exogenous trade balance model
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Data Model Open Economy
Model Exogenous Trade Balance
Growth 1980-89 change in Y/N 2.92 3.36 3.55 due to TFP 3.15 3.16 3.23 due to K/Y -0.19 -0.34 -0.19 due to L/N -0.03 0.54 0.51Crisis 1989-93 change in Y/N -3.14 -1.60 -0.79 due to TFP 0.07 -0.47 -0.82 due to K/Y 2.75 2.00 2.38 due to L/N -5.96 -3.13 -2.35Recovery 1993-2005 change in Y/N 3.33 3.97 3.81 due to TFP 4.06 4.31 4.47 due to K/Y -1.59 -0.62 -0.76 due to L/N 0.87 0.27 0.10
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What Happened to TFP? Two extra exogenous processes
1. Terms of trade
2. Productivity in the investment-consumption sector
What is the terms of trade effect?
Leave calibration unchanged, set 1mp ≡
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Data Model Open Economy
Model Open Economy No TOT
Growth 1980-89 change in Y/N 2.92 3.36 3.17 due to TFP 3.15 3.16 3.12 due to K/Y -0.19 -0.34 -0.21 due to L/N -0.03 0.54 0.27Crisis 1989-93 change in Y/N -3.14 -1.60 -1.28 due to TFP 0.07 -0.47 -0.38 due to K/Y 2.75 2.00 1.52 due to L/N -5.96 -3.13 -2.36Recovery 1993-2005 change in Y/N 3.33 3.97 3.94 due to TFP 4.06 4.31 4.27 due to K/Y -1.59 -0.62 -0.62 due to L/N 0.87 0.27 0.29
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Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?
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Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?
No. A terms of trade deterioration can affect supplies of inputs. A terms of trade deterioration does not affect productivity. This result follows from the way real GDP is constructed.
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A Simple Closed Economy
Consumption good production
( , )t ty f m=
Intermediate good production
tt
t
xma
=
t tp a=
Feasibility t t tc x y+ =
Real GDP at base year prices
t t t tY c y x= = −
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A competitive economy solves
max ( , )t t tf m a m− The first-order condition is
( , )m t tf m a=
By the implicit function theorem
1( ) 0( , ( ))t
mm t
m af m a
′ = <
Real GDP
( ) ( )( ) ( ),t t t tY a f m a a m a= −
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How does real GDP change when a changes?
1 11
( )( ) ( ) ( )tt t t t
t
dY aY a Y a a ada+ +
+
− ≈ −
1
( ) ( , ( )) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0tm t t t t t t
t
dY a f m a m a a m a m a m ada +
′ ′= − − = − <
Real GDP and TFP fall with a decline in productivity.
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A Simple Open Economy
Reinterpret the closed economy as an open economy.
The intermediate is imported at price p , the terms of trade
t t tp m x=
Real GDP in the open economy:
0 0 0( , )t t t t t t t tY c x p m y p m f m p m= + − = − = −
Compared to real GDP in the closed economy:
( , )t t t tY c f m x= = −
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A competitive economy solves
max ( , )t t tf m p m−
The first-order condition is
1( ) 0( , ( ))t
mm t
m pf m p
′ = <
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How does real GDP change when p changes?
1 1 0 1( ) ( , ( )) ( )t t tY p f m p p m p+ + += −
0 01
( ) ( , ( )) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )tm t t t t t
t
dY p f m p m p p m p p p m pdp +
′ ′ ′= − = −
Real GDP and TFP can increase or decrease, depending on 0tp p− .
With chain weighting the first-order effect is always zero.
With variable labor supply, real GDP will change, but productivity will not.
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Hours Worked per Working Age Person in Finland
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
ratio
data
open modelopen model with constant terms of trade
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Detrended Real GDP per Working Age Person in Finland
80
90
100
110
120
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
inde
x (1
989=
100)
data
open model
open model with constant terms of trade
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Measured TFP
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
inde
x (1
989
= 10
0)
data open model
open model with constant terms of trade
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What Have We Learned?
1. The crisis in Finland is accounted for by
• Decrease in TFP
• Decrease in hours worked
2. Standard model accounts for 51% of output decline
3. Adding policy: taxes, government spending
• Model accounts for 136% of output decline
• Improves behavior of labor
4. Open economy model
• Model accounts for 72% of output decline
5. Endogenous TFP:
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Exogenous Productivity, Detrended
80
85
90
95
100
105
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
inde
x (1
989
= 10
0)
base case = TFP
model with taxes and government
open economy (at consumption prices)