The Demographic Future ofthe Great Plains

Richard RathgeNorth Dakota State University

Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Rural Sociological Society, Louisville, KY, Aug. 12, 2006

Research support from USDA North Dakota Rural Development Center and regional research project W1001.

Study Methods

• Data from State Demographic Units– 12 states in Great Plains (all 1,009 counties)– Age cohorts by county-type

• Projections from 2000 to 2020

Percentage Change in Total PopulationU.S. Counties: 1990 to 2000

Loss: -42.3% to 0.0%Gain: 0.1% to 19.4%Gain: 19.41% to 45.1%Gain: 45.11% to 191.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 CensusPrepared by: North Dakota State Data Center, April 2001

Nonmetro Farming-Dependent Counties, 1989

Other nonmetro countiesFarming countiesMetro counties

Counties with 20 percent or more of income (labor or proprietor) from farming

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: ERS, USDA

Table 1. Population Distribution by State in the Great Plains by County Type: 2000

States in theGreat Plains

All Counties

Population as a Percent of 12-State Total

MetropolitanCounties

Non-Metropolitan Counties*

Population

Percent of12-State

Total Total Urban Less Urban Rural

Colorado 4,301,261 9.5 10.8 6.2 3.5 6.6 9.5

Iowa 2,926,324 6.4 4.1 12.3 12.5 12.5 10.8

Kansas 2,688,418 5.9 4.7 9.0 13.0 6.8 11.2

Minnesota 4,919,479 10.8 10.7 11.2 6.1 13.3 11.0

Montana 902,195 2.0 0.6 5.3 9.9 3.1 6.3

Nebraska 1,711,263 3.8 2.8 6.2 8.2 4.4 10.7

New Mexico 1,819,046 4.0 3.2 6.0 14.1 3.6 2.0

North Dakota 642,200 1.4 0.9 2.7 1.8 1.8 8.7

Oklahoma 3,450,654 7.6 6.5 10.4 10.6 12.0 3.1

South Dakota 754,844 1.7 0.8 3.8 1.1 3.2 11.0

Texas 20,851,820 45.9 54.6 24.2 17.1 29.6 14.3

Wyoming 493,782 1.1 0.5 2.7 2.1 3.2 1.4

TOTAL 45,461,286 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Population 45,461,286 32,429,884 13,031,402 3,305,226 7,875,080 1,851,096

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census* Non-metropolitan counties are classified into three sub-types: urban non-metropolitan counties are counties with acity of at least 20,000 people, less urban non-metropolitan counties are counties with a city between 2,500 and20,000 people, and rural non-metropolitan counties are those counties without a city of at least 2,500 people.

Table 1. Population Distribution by State in the Great Plains by County Type: 2000

States in theGreat Plains

All Counties

Population as a Percent of 12-State Total

MetropolitanCounties

Non-Metropolitan Counties*

Population

Percent of12-State

Total Total Urban Less Urban Rural

Colorado 4,301,261 9.5 10.8 6.2 3.5 6.6 9.5

Iowa 2,926,324 6.4 4.1 12.3 12.5 12.5 10.8

Kansas 2,688,418 5.9 4.7 9.0 13.0 6.8 11.2

Minnesota 4,919,479 10.8 10.7 11.2 6.1 13.3 11.0

Montana 902,195 2.0 0.6 5.3 9.9 3.1 6.3

Nebraska 1,711,263 3.8 2.8 6.2 8.2 4.4 10.7

New Mexico 1,819,046 4.0 3.2 6.0 14.1 3.6 2.0

North Dakota 642,200 1.4 0.9 2.7 1.8 1.8 8.7

Oklahoma 3,450,654 7.6 6.5 10.4 10.6 12.0 3.1

South Dakota 754,844 1.7 0.8 3.8 1.1 3.2 11.0

Texas 20,851,820 45.9 54.6 24.2 17.1 29.6 14.3

Wyoming 493,782 1.1 0.5 2.7 2.1 3.2 1.4

TOTAL 45,461,286 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Population 45,461,286 32,429,884 13,031,402 3,305,226 7,875,080 1,851,096

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census* Non-metropolitan counties are classified into three sub-types: urban non-metropolitan counties are counties with acity of at least 20,000 people, less urban non-metropolitan counties are counties with a city between 2,500 and20,000 people, and rural non-metropolitan counties are those counties without a city of at least 2,500 people.

(20K+)

(2.5K-20K) (lt 2.5K)

Table 2. Number of Counties by State in the Great Plains by County Type: 2000

States in the Great Plains

TotalCounties

MetropolitanCounties

Non-Metropolitan Counties*

Total Urban Less Urban Rural

NumberNumber PercentPercent NumberNumber PercentPercent NumberNumber PercentPercent NumberNumber PercentPercent Nu mberNu mber PercentPercent

Colorado 63 10 15.9 53 84.1 1 1.6 24 38.1 28 44.4

Iowa 99 10 10.1 89 89.9 9 9.1 60 60.6 20 20.2

Kansas 105 9 8.6 96 91.4 10 9.5 40 38.1 46 43.8

Minnesota 87 18 20.7 69 79.3 4 4.6 45 51.7 20 23.0

Montana 56 2 3.6 54 96.4 5 8.9 19 33.9 30 53.6

Nebraska 93 6 6.5 87 93.5 7 7.5 28 30.1 52 55.9

New Mexico 33 6 18.2 27 81.8 7 21.2 13 39.4 7 21.2

North Dakota 53 4 7.5 49 92.5 1 1.9 10 18.9 38 71.7

Oklahoma 77 14 18.2 63 81.8 7 9.1 45 58.4 11 14.3

South Dakota 66 3 4.5 63 95.5 1 1.5 17 25.8 45 68.2

Texas 254 58 22.8 196 77.2 12 4.7 127 50.0 57 22.4

Wyoming 23 2 8.7 21 91.3 2 8.7 15 65.2 4 17.4

TOTAL 1,009 142 14.1 867 85.9 66 6.5 443 43.9 358 35.5

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census* Non-metropolitan counties are classified into three sub-types: urban non-metropolitan counties are counties with acity of at least 20,000 people, less urban non-metropolitan counties are counties with a city between 2,500 and20,000 people, and rural non-metropolitan counties are those counties without a city of at least 2,500 people.

Table 2. Number of Counties by State in the Great Plains by County Type: 2000

States in the Great Plains

TotalCounties

MetropolitanCounties

Non-Metropolitan Counties*

Total Urban Less Urban Rural

NumberNumber PercentPercent NumberNumber PercentPercent NumberNumber PercentPercent NumberNumber PercentPercent Nu mberNu mber PercentPercent

Colorado 63 10 15.9 53 84.1 1 1.6 24 38.1 28 44.4

Iowa 99 10 10.1 89 89.9 9 9.1 60 60.6 20 20.2

Kansas 105 9 8.6 96 91.4 10 9.5 40 38.1 46 43.8

Minnesota 87 18 20.7 69 79.3 4 4.6 45 51.7 20 23.0

Montana 56 2 3.6 54 96.4 5 8.9 19 33.9 30 53.6

Nebraska 93 6 6.5 87 93.5 7 7.5 28 30.1 52 55.9

New Mexico 33 6 18.2 27 81.8 7 21.2 13 39.4 7 21.2

North Dakota 53 4 7.5 49 92.5 1 1.9 10 18.9 38 71.7

Oklahoma 77 14 18.2 63 81.8 7 9.1 45 58.4 11 14.3

South Dakota 66 3 4.5 63 95.5 1 1.5 17 25.8 45 68.2

Texas 254 58 22.8 196 77.2 12 4.7 127 50.0 57 22.4

Wyoming 23 2 8.7 21 91.3 2 8.7 15 65.2 4 17.4

TOTAL 1,009 142 14.1 867 85.9 66 6.5 443 43.9 358 35.5

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census* Non-metropolitan counties are classified into three sub-types: urban non-metropolitan counties are counties with acity of at least 20,000 people, less urban non-metropolitan counties are counties with a city between 2,500 and20,000 people, and rural non-metropolitan counties are those counties without a city of at least 2,500 people.

Table 3. Change in Population by State in the Great Plains by County Type: 1990 to 2000

States in the Great Plains

Change in Population for AllCounties

Percent Change in Population

MetropolitanCounties

Non-Metropolitan Counties*

Numeric Percent Total Urban Less Urban Rural

Colorado 1,006,867 30.6 30.0 33.2 24.8 31.6 44.7

Iowa 149,569 5.4 10.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 -1.0

Kansas 210,844 8.5 14.1 2.0 3.1 2.3 -1.1

Minnesota 544,380 12.4 15.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.1

Montana 103,130 12.9 9.7 13.9 21.7 7.6 7.9

Nebraska 132,878 8.4 14.3 2.6 7.2 3.3 -4.3

New Mexico 303,977 20.1 23.0 16.4 13.7 19.4 31.1

North Dakota 3,400 0.5 10.3 -6.1 1.5 -5.0 -9.5

Oklahoma 305,069 9.7 12.2 6.0 3.6 7.7 -4.8

South Dakota 58,840 8.5 18.3 3.9 -0.3 7.2 0.7

Texas 3,865,310 22.8 24.9 12.0 11.8 12.1 11.8

Wyoming 40,194 8.9 10.2 8.3 0.0 10.6 10.9

TOTAL 6,724,458 17.4 21.5 8.2 8.6 9.0 4.7

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Table 3. Change in Population by State in the Great Plains by County Type: 1990 to 2000

States in the Great Plains

Change in Population for AllCounties

Percent Change in Population

MetropolitanCounties

Non-Metropolitan Counties*

Numeric Percent Total Urban Less Urban Rural

Colorado 1,006,867 30.6 30.0 33.2 24.8 31.6 44.7

Iowa 149,569 5.4 10.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 -1.0

Kansas 210,844 8.5 14.1 2.0 3.1 2.3 -1.1

Minnesota 544,380 12.4 15.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.1

Montana 103,130 12.9 9.7 13.9 21.7 7.6 7.9

Nebraska 132,878 8.4 14.3 2.6 7.2 3.3 -4.3

New Mexico 303,977 20.1 23.0 16.4 13.7 19.4 31.1

North Dakota 3,400 0.5 10.3 -6.1 1.5 -5.0 -9.5

Oklahoma 305,069 9.7 12.2 6.0 3.6 7.7 -4.8

South Dakota 58,840 8.5 18.3 3.9 -0.3 7.2 0.7

Texas 3,865,310 22.8 24.9 12.0 11.8 12.1 11.8

Wyoming 40,194 8.9 10.2 8.3 0.0 10.6 10.9

TOTAL 6,724,458 17.4 21.5 8.2 8.6 9.0 4.7

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

North Dakota Cass County

McIntosh County

40 similar counties

4 similar counties

Total Counties = 53

Figure 7. Projected Percent Change in Total Population in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000(National data)

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14121086420

Population (in millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.

85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Male Female

A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020Male Female

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14121086420

Population (in millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.

85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

2000 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributions

by Age and Gender for North Dakota

Traditional

Babyboom

X Generation

Y Generation

6%

13%

48%

34%

23%20%

36%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2000 2010

Traditionalist(1900-1945)

Baby Boomer(1946-1964)

Generation X(1965-1975)

Generation Y(1976-1994)

Source: Census Bureau & North Dakota State Data Center

N.D. Labor Force, by Generation

Population Distribution by Age of Earner in North Dakota: 1980-2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the North Dakota State Data Center

Peaked in 1990

Peaked in 2000

Relatively stable until 2005

Figure 1. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 0 to 4 in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

Figure 2. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 5 to 19 in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

Number of Counties by Population Gain or Loss in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and NonmetropolitanStatus Between Census 2000 and 2020 Projections

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies

Figure 3. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 20 to 34 in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

Figure 4. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 35 to 54 in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

Number of Counties by Population Gain or Loss in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and NonmetropolitanStatus Between Census 2000 and 2020 Projections

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies

Figure 5. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 55 to 64 in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

Figure 6. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 65 and Olderin the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

Number of Counties by Population Gain or Loss in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and NonmetropolitanStatus Between Census 2000 and 2020 Projections

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies

Change in the Total Population and Elderly Population in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and NonmetropolitanStatus: Census 1980 to 2000 and Projections 2010 and 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies

Policy Implications

• Future viability of many GP areas in doubt

• Need to address labor force issues– Significant shifts especially in rural areas

• Big issue to address is the elderly boom– 6.6 million net expansion of those 55+– ¼ of the total net change in population

• Elderly expansion equally felt urban-rural

Conclusion

• If history is a guide, the future of the Great Plains depends on its ability to adapt to technological innovation

• The success of the Great Plains will depend on its ability to work interdependently

• This demographic analysis documents the dramatic shift that will occur in age cohorts which will force a new way of thinking.