The Democratization of Energy
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Transcript of The Democratization of Energy
The Democratization of Energy
Jay MarhoeferCEO and Executive ManagerIntelligent Generation LLC
June 17, 2010
Tonight’s discussion Overview of the electricity sector The challenge of renewables Intelligent GenerationTM and the
democratization of energy
The obligatory plug Intelligent GenerationTM is an integrated hardware/
software platform that democratizes how clean energy is produced and distributed.› The optimizer is a smart box that acquires electricity for
a building when it is cheap or free and stores it in a battery for later use during peak times. It buys low and sells high.
› The network forms a virtual power plant from the optimizers. It provides immediate, reliable power to utilities when it is most valuable.
The optimizer and network, when combined, can triple the cost savings of solar energy and cut the payback time in half.
Questions I hear Why aren’t the wind turbines spinning
when it’s a windy day? Why can’t we run everything on
renewables and use fossil fuels or nuclear power for backup?
Will a smart national electricity grid solve our problems?
Will solar ever work without subsidies?
Electricity 101
It’s a little more complicated
Types of power companies› IOUs (investor owned utilities)› IPPs (independent power producers)› Wholesale power marketers (e.g. Exelon)› Munis and co-ops› Load generating vs. “wires and meters” › ARES (alternative retail electricity suppliers)
Regulators› FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission› PUCs (state public utility commissions)› ISOs/RTOs (regional transmission organizations, e.g. PJM)
Other stuff› Baseload/load-following/peaker› RPS (renewable portfolio standards)› Deregulation
For starters…
Seasonal demand varies
Januar
y
Febru
ary
March
AprilMay
June
July
August
Septe
mber
October
Novem
ber
Decem
ber0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
All otherOther RenewablesHydroelectric ConventionalNuclearNatural GasCoalG
igaw
att-
hour
s
As does daily demand
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
WinterSpringSummerFall
Hour
MW
h
Which leads to 3 challenges Availability/reliability
› Nukes, coal and natural gas are steady› Wind and solar are not
Resource management› Grid was built to be one-way› How to match demand with (variable) supply?
Inertia› Nuclear plant: 5-7 days from cold start› Coal plant: 3-5 days› Load following natural gas plant: 30-90 minutes› Pure peaker: 15 minutes› Wind: 10-30 minutes› Solar: instantaneous
Can wind do it all?
Maybe in winter
But not in summer
Wind’s effect on price (Texas)
Capacity doubled in 2008
…and so did price volatilityERCOT—Houston Hub 2006 2007 2008Average kWh price (cents) 5.2 5.4 7.2Average daily spread 18.7 22.0 41.2Lowest (95.0) (99.9) (153.6)HIghest 124.8 150.0 380.6
Moral• Wind blows most when you need it least (winter nights) and least
when you need it most (summer days)• Wind’s volatility necessitates more high value ancillary services
(storage, voltage regulation, spinning reserve)• Wind potential is greatest in areas far away from major cities
(other than offshore)
What about a national grid? Probably won’t happen
› Politics (see next slide)› Shifting demographics to Sun Belt
Low wind Not aligned with regional transmission
groups› Cost of new transmission (tens of $
billions)› Property rights
Retail electricity rates vary
What about solar? 92% of Americans think it’s important to
develop solar energy and incorporate it in the U.S. electricity system
Source: 2009 Schott Solar BarometerTM
But…long payback periods and high upfront costs› 15+ years even with 30% federal tax credit› 10+ years even with tax credit and $300/MWh
REC
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So what’s the answer?
Demand side management
Supply side management
Dem
and
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Reshape electricity demand
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Dem
and
Demand side management
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Reshape electricity demand
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SolarDem
and
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Reshape electricity demand
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Purchased off-peak /wind power stored in battery
Dem
and
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Reshape electricity demand
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Dem
and
Resulting purchased electricity
…by democratizing energy A managed network of distributed
renewable generation and storage 100,000 networked buildings is
equivalent to bringing a small nuclear plant online immediately
Enormous market power even at 5% of total generation (see Texas)
The “Holy Grail”: consumer participation in the wholesale electricity market
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Solar with IG Optimizer
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Intelligent Generation network
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ComparisonSolar only Solar /battery/
timerSolar/ battery/
IGNet installed cost $10,000 $11,600 $12,000
Annual electric bill w/o solar $2,000 $2,000 $2,000Electricity cost savings $260 $500 $700Solar RECs $500 $500 $500Capacity reduction $0 $0 $200Ancillary services $0 $0 $200Peak demand credit $0 $0 $100TOTAL ANNUAL Savings $760 $1,000 $1,700Payback period—solar system 13 years 10 years 5.8 yearsPayback period—battery/timer N/A 1.6 years 1.2 yearsPayback period—battery/IG N/A N/A N/ATotal payback period 13 years 11.6 years 7.0 years
Other possibilities Smart grid Plug-in hybrids Fuel cells
Smart grid Focus has been on demand-side
management and investor-owned utilities
What consumers like› Real time pricing› Rewards for peak time reductions
What consumers don’t like› Utility control of “smart” appliances (HAN)
Plug-in hybrids Potential storage capacity is formidable
› 10 million PHEVs could store 100,000 MWh (enough to power California for 2 hours)
“Charging” side makes perfect sense› Excess capacity and cheap electricity
Discharge side is problematic› Peak times coincide with commute home› Higher and better use
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions? Getting US off foreign oil?
Fuel cells E.g., the “Bloom Box”
› Darling of the cleantech VC crowd› $400 million invested to date
Reliable on-site production of electricity But…
› Won’t be affordable for 5-10 years› Needs a hydrocarbon (e.g., natural gas)› What happens in winter when the cost of
natural gas is 6x?
Summary Hardware costs are coming down
› Solar› Batteries/storage
PHEVs are coming Legislation (RPS, PACE) is driving adoption
› Lack of integrated vision › Doing what’s cheap (wind) vs. what’s smart
Those who democratize energy will reap the major benefits
Thank youJay Marhoefer
Intelligent Generation [email protected]