The Decline of the Extended Family - UMN Historyusers.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/hist3797/Lecture...
Transcript of The Decline of the Extended Family - UMN Historyusers.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/hist3797/Lecture...
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The Decline of the Extended Family
Steven Ruggles
Frédéric Le Play (1806-1882)
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Frédéric Le Play (1806-1882)
Durkheim 1888
Burgess1916
Ogburn1932
Parsons1944
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Goode1963
Peter Laslett (1915-2001)
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Village of Clayworth
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Percent of Households with Extended Kin: Preindustrial English Communities and 1961
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
100 communities, 1584-1821
England and Wales,1961
Simple family
Extended family
Multiple family
Laslett-Hammel Classification
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English Demographic Conditions, ca. 1725
Life expectancy at birthFemales 34.8Males 32.5
Median age at first marriageFemales 25.2Males 26.1
Mean generation length 34.7
Percent females celibate 14.1
Total fertility rate 4.6
Population Pyramid
20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20
0 - 45 - 9
10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 79
80+
Age
Population (%)
Males Females
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MotherBorn: 1550Dies: 1617
Marries: 1575Children Born: 4
FatherBorn: 1544Dies: 1610
Marries: 1575
SonBorn: 1576Dies: 1576
DaughterBorn: 1581Dies: 1660
Marries: 1604Children: 7
DaughterBorn: 1579Dies: 1639
Never marries
SonBorn: 1588Dies:1670
Marries: 1618
Son-in-lawBorn: 1577Dies: 1640
Marries: 1604
Daughter-in-lawBorn: 1590Dies: 1685
Marries: 1618Children: 14
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0
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30
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50
60
70
80
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990Census year
Perc
ent w
ith c
hild
ren
White
Black
Percent of Persons Aged 65+ Residing with their Own Children aged 18+
David Kertzer (1995): “Nuclear Reincorporation Theory”
Tamara Hareven (1994): “Multigenerational families were rare, and only resorted to in cases of necessity, primarily when elderly parents were too frail to maintain a separate residence.”
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Percent of elderly residing with adult children, by value of real estate held: United States, 1850
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
$1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999
2,000-4,999
5,000-9,999
10,000-39,999
40,000+
Value of real estate (dollars)
Perc
ent w
ith a
dult
child
ren
Percent deviation in intergenerational coresidence of each occupational group from nonfarm average:
Men aged 30-39 residing with parents, U.S., 1850-2000
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
1850 1860 1870 1880 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Low status Mid status High status
core
side
less
than
ave
rage
co
resi
de m
ore
than
ave
rage
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990Census year
Perc
ent w
ith c
hild
ren
White
Black
Percent of Persons Aged 65+ Residing with their Own Children aged 18+
Percent of elderly (65+) residing with adult child (18+):United States, 1880
0
5
10
15
20
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65
Aged with chronicillness
Other aged
Perc
ent c
ores
iden
t
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Percent of the Labor Force Employed in Agriculture, United States, 1800-2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Perc
ent
Percent of elderly (65+) with children: Estimating the impact of Social Security
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990Census year
Perc
ent w
ith c
hild
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Percent of elderly (65+) with children: Estimating the impact of Social Security
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990Census year
Perc
ent w
ith c
hild
ren
Assuming zero Social Security
income
Thomas H. Eliot: Council for the committee that drafted the Social Security Bill, 1933
“In the old days, the old-age assistance problem was not so great so long as most people lived on farms, had big families, and at least some of the children stayed on the farm.”
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Khartoum, CBS-Sudan
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1973 Census Tapes arrive at Muller Media (New York) via Barcelona
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Dhaka, BangladeshBureau of Statistics
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IPUMS Participating Countries
ParticipatingAgreement PendingNegotiating
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Northwest European and North American Exceptionalism
The “Hajnal Line”
John Hajnal
Table 1. Measures of living arrangements of individuals and couples aged 65 or older
Percent residing with:
Any kin Descendants Three generationsNineteenth century
Britain 62.3 50.2 23.5Nordic Countries 48.7 46.4 14.5North America 73.3 66.4 32.3
Twentieth and twenty-first centuriesLatin America 71.8 59.1 33.9Middle East 52.8 47.3 26.2Sub-Saharan Africa 78.1 66.9 46.5East Asia 79.8 69.6 45.9Northwestern Europe 34.4 27.1 11.2Eastern/Southeastern Europe 42.4 38.7 19.1United States 39.7 32.1 12.5
Overall mean 60.6 51.6 28.2Standard Deviation 20.2 17.6 14.0Number of census samples 98 88 88
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Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaWest Asia/North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaWest Asia/North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
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Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaWest Asia/North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaWest Asia/North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
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Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaWest Asia/North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaWest Asia/North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
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Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaWest Asia/North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaWest Asia/North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
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Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaWest Asia/North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with descendant
0
20
40
60
80
100
1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year
Per
cent
with
des
cend
ants
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
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Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with three generations
0
20
40
60
1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year
Perc
ent w
ith th
ree
gene
ratio
ns
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
Table 2. Independent variables
Name Description Mean Std. Dev.
Agricultural employment Log of percent of men aged 18-64 employed in agriculture 2.8 0.9Percent elderly Percent of population aged 65 or older 7.3 4.2Marital fertility Age-standardized marital fertility ratio 64.8 21.7Female marriage age Singulate mean age at marriage for women 23.2 1.8Male marriage age Singulate mean age at marriage for men 26.3 1.6Unmarried elderly women Percent of 65+ who are women without spouses 44.7 4.5Elderly couples Percent of 65+ who are residing with spouse 38.4 4.8De jure census De jure census enumeration rule 0.6 0.5
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living arrangements of the aged
With kin With descendants Three generationB B B
Agricultural employment 7.7 1.4 *** 8.04 1.10 *** 6.44 1.13 ***Percent elderly -4.1 0.3 *** -3.83 0.28 *** -3.21 0.29 ***Marital fertility -0.2 0.1 ** -0.15 0.05 ** -0.18 0.05 ***Female marriage age -1.7 1.0 -2.70 0.78 ** -1.99 0.80 *Male marriage age 2.6 1.0 * 4.35 0.82 *** 2.76 0.84 **Unmarried elderly women 0.6 0.3 * 1.16 0.21 *** 1.60 0.22 ***Elderly couples 0.4 0.2 0.95 0.18 *** 0.88 0.18 ***De jure census -6.3 1.7 *** -3.39 1.40 *** -4.15 1.43 **
12.7 23.2 -71.61 18.26 -83.55 18.72 ***0.85 0.89 0.81
N 97 88 88
Std. Error
Table 3. OLS regressions of agricultural employment and demographic characteristics on
Adjusted R Square
Std. Error Std. Error
Constant
Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
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Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100Year
Per
cent
with
kin
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
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Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with descendants
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100Observed percent with descendants
Pred
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d pe
rcen
t with
des
cend
ents
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with descendants
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100Observed percent with descendants
Pred
icte
d pe
rcen
t with
des
cend
ents
BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
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Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with descendants
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100Observed percent with descendants
Pred
icte
d pe
rcen
t with
des
cend
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BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with three generations
0
15
30
45
60
0 15 30 45 60Observed percent three generations
Pred
icte
d pe
rcen
t thr
ee g
ener
atio
ns BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
![Page 42: The Decline of the Extended Family - UMN Historyusers.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/hist3797/Lecture 6.pdfSon Born: 1588 Dies:1670 Marries: 1618 Son-in-law Born: 1577 Dies: 1640 Marries: 1604](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071018/5fd197e49a28a629cb61e057/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with three generations
0
15
30
45
60
0 15 30 45 60Observed percent three generations
Pre
dict
ed p
erce
nt th
ree
gene
ratio
ns BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with three generations
0
15
30
45
60
0 15 30 45 60Observed percent three generations
Pred
icte
d pe
rcen
t thr
ee g
ener
atio
ns BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe
![Page 43: The Decline of the Extended Family - UMN Historyusers.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/hist3797/Lecture 6.pdfSon Born: 1588 Dies:1670 Marries: 1618 Son-in-law Born: 1577 Dies: 1640 Marries: 1604](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071018/5fd197e49a28a629cb61e057/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Frédéric Le Play (1806-1882)
John Gray and family, Minnesota ca. 1860
![Page 44: The Decline of the Extended Family - UMN Historyusers.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/hist3797/Lecture 6.pdfSon Born: 1588 Dies:1670 Marries: 1618 Son-in-law Born: 1577 Dies: 1640 Marries: 1604](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071018/5fd197e49a28a629cb61e057/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Robert Orrock and family, Minnesota 1857
Unknown family, ca. 1880
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Unknown family, Minnesota 1878
William Moore and family, 1855