The Decadal Plan for Semiconductors

1

The Decadal Plan for Semiconductors

New Trajectories for Communication

Rafic MakkiOctober 28, 2021W

orld

GD

P

Year

Year 1000 Year 1800

Data production is a key measure of human progress - p1

2Source: Victor Zhirnov, SRC Decadal Plan, 2021

2020: 1024 bit

1.E+001.E+011.E+021.E+031.E+041.E+051.E+061.E+071.E+081.E+091.E+101.E+111.E+121.E+131.E+141.E+151.E+161.E+171.E+181.E+191.E+201.E+211.E+221.E+231.E+24

-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Tota

l bits

stor

ed

Year

AD 1000: ~1013 bit~105 bit per capita

Gut

enbe

rg m

omen

t

BC 600: ~1010 bit~10 bit per capita

BC 300: ~1011bit~1000 bit per capita

1700: ~1016 bit~107 bit per capita

1014 bit per capita

Com

pute

r rev

olut

ion

Data production is a key measure of human progress – p2

3

Wor

ld G

DP

Tota

l bits

sto

red

Bits stored

GDP

4

And advances in communication technology have changed the world

TelegraphTelephone

Phonograph

Wireless telegraphRadio broadcast

Television

SpaceCellular phone; Digital

calculator; Arpanet; Walkman;

WWW; 2G-5GFWA; MIMOs

Social Media; IoT

1840s-1890s

1890s-1940s

1950s-1990s

1990s-present

1st WAVE 2nd WAVE 3rd WAVE 4th WAVE

Communication technologies are anchored on perhaps the greatest disruptor of all time: The Integrated Circuit

5

Internet

Business Analytics

Super Computing

Personal Computing

Mobile Communications

Mobile connectivity; radio; WIFI, Bluetooth; etc..

Network on Chip

Baseband radio

VoIP interfaces

Switches

Routers

SAN

Interference cancellation

Semiconductor Technology’simpact on communication

But semiconductor technology is facing its one of the toughest challenges in its history

6

Traditional (Dennard) scaling stopped years ago, and device shrinking may reach fundamental limits this decade

ICT energy trends are alarming

And yet we are witnessing an explosion of data that is exponentially increasing – this has a number of implications, including storage, analytics and communication

The current hardware-software paradigm in information and communication technologies is reaching its limits and must change.

A Decadal Plan for Semiconductors is needed that will transform the semiconductor industry by supporting the strategic visions of semiconductor companies placing ‘a stake in the ground’ to motivate and challenge the best and brightest university faculty and students to be a key part of the solution guiding a (r)evolution of research programs

Decadal Plan Participants

7Source: SRC Decadal Plan, 2021

Decadal Plan Objectives


I. Identify trends that if they continue will become problematic

II. Identify “fundamental” goals and targets to alter the current trajectory

Key Principle: Stay agnostic to approach• Identify the what, not the how• e.g. – not Quantum or neuromorphic or other computing but Energy/bit and/or

MIPS, Binary Throughput, EEMBC Coremark etc.

Road-mapping: Forecast for Technology Requirements


tbd

The Decadal Plan identified 5 Seismic Shift Priorities


Seismic Shift #1 - Analog Data Deluge


Why Seismic Shift?The total analog information generated from the physical world by semiconductor sensors has surpassed the collective human data consumption limit

Massive data volume overwhelming ability to process, move, store and secure it

Need: Smart sensing for effectively leveraging massive analog data

Seismic Shift #2 - Data storage capacity will run out

12Source: SRC Decadal Plan, 2021; (based on research by Hilbert and Lopez: M. Hilbert and P. Lopez, “The World's Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information”, Science 332 (2011) 60-65

Today’s storage technologies will not sustain growing global demand

Need: Discover storage technologies with >100x storage density capability and new storage systems that can leverage these new technologies.

Why Seismic Shift? Needed: 1010 kg of wafer-scale Si

Problem: Projected annual global supply of Silicon wafers:

107 kg in 2040

Seismic Shift #3 - Data to communication gap


While currently it is possible to transmit all world’s stored data ‘instantaneously’, in 2040 it is predicted to require at least 20 years

Need: (a) Advance communication technologies to enable moving around all stored data of 100-1000 zettabyte/year at the peak rate of 1Tbps@<0.1nJ/bit, (b)Develop intelligent and agile networks that effectively utilize bandwidth to maximize network capacity.

Why Seismic Shift?

Communication capacity vs data capacity

Seismic Shift #4 - ICT Security challenges

14Source: SRC Decadal Plan; Keith Rebello / DARPA

An alarming trend that in recent years, the growth rate of the security vulnerabilities became greater grow faster than the performance

Need: Develop security and privacy advances that keep pace with technology, new threats, and new use cases

Why Seismic Shift?

Num

ber o

f Com

mon

Vul

nera

bilit

y En

umer

atio

ns (C

VEs)

Seismic Shift #5 - Computing energy is not sustainable


Computing will not be sustainable by 2040, as its energy requirements would exceed the estimated world’s energy production

Need: Discover computing paradigms/architectures with a radically new ‘computing trajectory’ demonstrating >1,000,000x improvement in energy efficiency.

Why Seismic Shift?

The Decadal Plan calls on a fundamental change in thinking


Communication

SmartSensing

Security

Memory& Storage

EnergyEfficiency

Technology Needs

• Novel Materials• 3D Heterogeneous Integration• Advanced Packaging, incl. • Integrated Photonics• Compute Efficiency, Incl. AI & Quantum• The Memory & Storage Paradigm• Communications• Edge Intelligence• Agile and Domain Specific Design• Novel Architectures & Algorithms• Security, Privacy, and Trust

17

World GDP

Year

New Trajectory for Communication

Communication grand goals and challenges


The communication grand goals Advance communication technologies to enable moving around all stored data of 100-

1000 zettabyte/year at the peak rate of the order of 1Tbps@<0.1nJ/bit Develop intelligent and agile networks that effectively utilize bandwidth to maximize

network capacity

Grand Challenges No clear technology enabler for 6G Fundamental limits of wireless communication (bring back the physics) Communication energy per bit Security

Key topics mmW trends; power; quantum internet possibilities; life after 5G; Global optimization

with ML; borrowing from biology; Research Pathways

mailto:1Tbps@%3c0.1nJ/bit

Compute Energy vs Communication Energy

19Source: SRC Decadal Plan

Communication and security are intertwined

20

Just like safety, security cannot be an add-on software

Future Communication Systems must be designed for security

“On average, more than 4,000 ransomware attacks have occurred dailysince January 1, 2016”

US Interagency Technical Guidance Report

Source: Sonicwall 2021

21

Inna

te

Adap

tive

Can we learn from biology’s built-in proative defense system?

New Trajectories for Communication: The big picture summary

22Source: Future of Communication Workshop, SRC 2020

Future of communication

6G

Holistic Vision

Driven by intelligent edge nodes, local analytics, based on high speed always on devices, requiring new modalities for security

No clear technology enablers yet

Multi-objective optimization: Energy; Security; Quality; Performance Seismic shifts are intertwined

The role of VCs and startups- A16Z Vision for Web3

23Source: Statista 2021; Rand; a16z, How to win the future 2021

Internet

Healthcare

MobilityTelecomm

Software (non internet)

Industrial

Decadal Plan Blogs

24

Decadal Plan for Semiconductors: New Trajectories for Communication

October 28, 2021

Gabriele ManganaroMediaTek Inc.

26

Why? How?

Driving applications will be very diverse in requirements and enabling technologies:

• AR/VR/telepresence (holograms, at some point) require increasingly higher data rate (up to TB/s in the future) and bands.

• Connectivity of all things (IoT/IoE) will require managing a growing number of diverse UE and requirements (incl. latency of ms or less). Autonomous vehicles, selected robotics/industrial automation use cases, remote surgery etc. are examples

27

Other important considerations

Communication and computing interdependence and convergence

• Diverse communication use cases will be even more closely matched to different computing paradigms: cloud/fog computing on one hand, edge computing on the other hand

Energy consumption• In aggregate, this all adds up to a substantial growth in energy

consumption.• Concerns include sustainability.• Substantial technology shifts and holistic solutions likely

required.

Mobile Communications Today

• Communications has not changed in the past 120 years• Marconi Era (1900-2020): Broadcast to Omni • Easy (not direction sensitive) but inefficient (wide beams)• Results in high interference and low capacity• 5G/6G aims to change this and improve capacity by 30x

Directive Communications (5G/6G)

• Improving communication systems is a challenging problem:1) More Bandwidth: FR1 (sub-6 GHz), FR2 (24-52 GHz), FR3 (7-20 GHz)2) Spatial Diversity: Phased arrays/MIMO/Lots of simultaneous beams/ABF/DBF3) Better Coding and Channel Modeling: 5G is all about coding, time domain and channels4) Lower Noise Figure/Better PA Efficiency: Better devices (SiGe, CMOS, GaN) and arrays

SATCOM knew this since a long time – 200-300 beam

base-stations at 36000 kms

Moving on to 5G/6G

• Peter Gammel• VP & CTO, Mobility & Wireless Infrastructure BU • Oct 22nd 2021

GlobalFoundries © 2021 All Rights Reserved 31

Non-terrestrial Network Growth

• Rapid growth in non-terrestrial networks (NTN)‒ Serves consumer broadband, enterprise, mobility, earth

observation, disaster recovery, government and defense markets‒ LEO to reduce latency of GEO/MEO networks‒ NTN support in 5G 3GPP Release 17, and NTN will be core to 6G

• Semiconductors requirements‒ Rx noise figure is king! Improves G/T and reduces array size and

cost‒ Low cost for affordable large array consumer terminals‒ Low power and radiation tolerant for satellite payloads

• SiGe and SOI are optimal for NTN phased arrays‒ Exceptional noise figure performance at low

power dissipation‒ Optimized cost structure from decade(s) of

high volume WiFi and smartphone FEM adoption ‒ Deployed in space today

Coexistence and complementarity of terrestrial and non-terrestrial Networks

GlobalFoundries © 2021 All Rights Reserved 32

Path to THz Silicon technologies

* Heinemann B et al 2016 SiGe HBT with fT/fmax of 505 GHz/720 GHz IEEE Int. Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM)

• Large bandwidth available in the sub-THz spectrum is an enabler for 6G‒ 100GHz - 300GHz, wavelength 3mm - 1mm‒ Enables 100Gbps to 1Tbps communications and high resolution

imaging radar‒ FR3 8-20GHz is ideal spectrum, but heavily used already

• Semiconductor challenges today‒ Device performance drops rapidly above 100GHz

• gain, output power, efficiency, noise figure, phase noise‒ Silicon: CMOS/SOI/SiGe capable at D-band but PAE is low‒ III-V: InP and GaN-on-SiC have best performance but lack high

volume commercial capability

• Silicon roadmap improvements to 1THz transistors‒ SiGe HBT has demonstrated performance > 500GHz* ‒ CMOS/SOI FET performance plateaus ~450GHz due to impact of

Rg and parasitics at advanced nodes‒ DARPA T-MUSIC program goals are 600GHz and 700GHz SiGe

HBT with advanced node CMOS

Courtesy of Professor Hua Wang; Georgia Tech PA Database

16nm 7nm

𝑓𝑇 ≈3𝑣𝑠𝑎𝑡8𝜋𝐿

𝑓𝑚𝑎𝑥 ≈ �𝑓𝑇

8𝜋𝐶𝑔𝑑𝑅𝑔

𝑓𝑚𝑎𝑥 ≈𝑓𝑇

�8𝜋 ∙ 𝑓𝑇−𝑖𝑛𝑡 ∙ 𝐶𝑔𝑑�𝑅𝑔 + 𝑅𝑠� +𝑅𝑔 + 𝑅𝑠

𝑟𝑜

28/22nm

Fmax

Enhanced RF Devices to Address Hyperconnectivity Growth

Photonic Design Platformto Address Hyperconnectivity Growth

AI-enabled Advanced Communication Networks• What

• Highly distributed, fully autonomous communication networks

• Edge computing and decision making

• Why? • Reduce energy consumption• Preserve data privacy• Increase resiliency and reliability

• What’s needed?• Wireless communications and

edge learning co-design research• Validated open training data• Standards• Improved RF signal identification• Antenna optimization,

beamforming training and tracking and scheduling.

Autonomous Systems• What?

• Smart grid, smart manufacturing, smart buildings, autonomous transportation

• Why?• Operational Technology (OT) can

improve resiliency and reliability

• What’s needed?• Cybersecurity countermeasures

for OT systems• Measurement-based approaches

to identify counterfeit hardware• Higher-bandwidth, lower-

latency, autonomous communication systems

System requirements driving technology advancements

[email protected]@nist.gov

3D Heterogeneous Integration

• Why?• Increased integration density

& functionality• Add new materials &

functionality• Reduce power, cost, &

latency• What’s needed?

• Evaluate chips, interfaces, and materials buried in multilayer stacks

• New models to evaluated dynamic 3D systems

• Electromagnetic, thermal, & mechanical properties of constituent materials

• Broadband/dynamic material properties

[email protected]

The Decadal Plan for Semiconductors

Documents

Transcript of The Decadal Plan for Semiconductors