Slide 1

The Death of Distance Frances Cairncross Exeter College, Oxford Tel Aviv, August 31 st 2005 Slide 2 This presentation looks at... The changing world environment The impact of a new technology Slide 3 Prediction can be difficult... Television will never be a serious competitor for radio because people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; the average American family hasnt time for it. The New York Times, reporting the 1939 Worlds Fair Slide 4 but not impossible Asked in 1898 what he thought would be the decisive factor in modern history, Otto von Bismarck replied: The fact that North Americans speak English. Slide 5 The changing world - A new balance of power Slide 6 Slide 7 Slide 8 Slide 9 The changing world - A new balance of power A new balance of demography Slide 10 Four views of the future: World population projections 2000-2050 Source: UN Slide 11 Globally, more old, fewer young Slide 12 Israel 2000 and 2050 A tale of two pyramids Source: US Census Bureau Slide 13 The changing world - A new balance of power A new balance of demography More competition for natural resources Slide 14 Oil pressure Slide 15 By 2030 -Developing countries will account for almost 2/3rds of the increase in global oil consumption -China, which became a net oil importer in 1993, will import 74% of its oil -OECDs share of global oil demand will decline from 59% in 2002 to 47% Slide 16 The coming scramble for oil: Global oil-import dependency Source: OECD Slide 17 Water pressure Slide 18 The changing world - A new balance of power A new balance of demography More competition for natural resources New technologies Slide 19 Slide 20 Death of distance Slide 21 Three great transport revolutions: Goods in the 19 th century People in the 20 th century Ideas in the 21 st century Slide 22 Communications technology: Increases access to information Forces global thinking Makes networks matter Creates new products Makes markets work better Slide 23 - bringing changes in. -our working lives -our social lives -our economic lives -our political lives Slide 24 New working patterns: The office as factory Slide 25 New working patterns: The office as factory The office as club The home as production unit Slide 26 and also New kinds of job (did your university train web designers?) More part-time, more all-the-time Top talent or no talent Slide 27 The mini-multinational Slide 28 New social lives: The power of Googling (internet dating the biggest subscription sites online) The constant conversation Ratings, advice, gossip: a global garden fence Slide 29 New social lives: The power of Googling (internet dating the biggest subscription sites online) The constant conversation Ratings, advice, gossip: a global garden fence Bye-bye privacy Slide 30 New economy, new world for companies An end to inflation A new deal for consumers A new managerial revolution Slide 31 Slide 32 Slide 33 The consumers invention Slide 34 The Company of the Future: Technology shapes companies: -Most people expected too much too soon -The big changes are within companies - -and between companies Slide 35 The second managerial revolution Slide 36 The changing world for business: New ways to reach consumers especially corporate consumers New ways to purchase New business opportunities New competitors Slide 37 The worlds factory Slide 38 The worlds office IT and BPO employment in India *ForecastSource: NASSCOM Slide 39 A new political order The power of the diaspora The competition for citizens A new role for government Slide 40 Is Distance really Dead? -Inexpensive communications bring enormous changes and opportunities. But Slide 41 Location still matters - -when goods/ inventory are needed quickly -when high-quality human capital is essential -when uncodifiable knowledge requires people to meet -when deals are done Slide 42 What implications for Israel? -superb at reducing the drawbacks of distance -high-quality human capital -relatively young population -widespread use of English -clever use of diaspora