The Dawning Of The New Age

- <date>

The Dawning of the New Age

Intersperience Research Ltd.Open IdeasMay 2011

2- 26th May 2011Intersperience Research Ltd. The Office of National Statistics

• 1.6 billion people have access to the internet at home Worldwide (29%)

• 445% growth since 2000

3- 26th May 2011Intersperience Research Ltd. The Office of National Statistics

• UK the third top internet user in Europe– 38 million accessed the internet in 2010– 30 million adults accessed the internet

every day in 2010– That is a double since 2006

4- 26th May 2011Intersperience Research Ltd.

• Out of 83% who look for information online

– 23% look for information online every day

– 13% surf the web to look for information all the time

• 60% who read news online, do so on a daily basis

• 46% finds time spent without the internet unproductive

The Office of National Statistics

• Just 2 years ago, sales over websites reached £115bn

• 90% purchase goods online


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• Advancing information accessibility

– Online based (e.g. Wikipedia, Twitter)

– Instant – mobile access through smartphones, tablet computers

• Increasing speed of information sharing“ This is the tricky thing about technology, it keeps changing”

― Digital Selves


• More choice

– To 71% the internet has vastly increased the amount of choice

• Higher control

– 51% customers believe the internet has increased the amount of control they have as a consumer

• Greater influence

– 35% are influenced by the comments posted by other online users

2003, 2010 The Office of National Statistics; 2011 Digital Selves


• Today’s use of technology

– Only 3% feel anxious using computers

– 79% use mobile phone (44% smartphones)

• 63% access internet on their phones

– Today 74% access internet wirelessly

– Over three-quarters use laptops (77% everyday)

– Over a half use entertainment devices such as iPods or game consoles

“Gradually, almost without consciously noticing it, technology has transformed our lives”

― Digital Selves

Intersperience Digital Selves Project 2011


Impact

Incremental Change

Impact

Time

Disruptive Change

• Evolves from the confluence of the seemingly diverse occurrences

• Result of the entirely new events

• Systematic, consistent, predictable

• Improvements, refinements, minor modifications

Time

Kostoff et al 2004, Mitchel et al 1998


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• SMS was an accidental success, taking everyone by surprise

• The ‘back to basics’ nature of SMS one of the main keys to its success

– Cost, convenience, immediacy, privacy, ubiquity

– Begun a change from a voice-based use of mobile phone into multifunctional device

• The future prospect difficult to predict

– What are seen as limitations could as easily be viewed as benefits

Haig et al


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• 2006 – Twitter released for public use

• March 14th to 18th 2008 – Twitter use increases from 20, 000 to 60, 000 tweets a day at “South by Southwest Festival”

• 2008 – 100 million tweets posted per quarter

• 2009 – 2 billion tweets per quarter

• 2010 – 50 million tweets per day

– First unassisted off-Earth tweet posted from the International Space Station

11

The Evolutionary Cycle• Technological pace vs. behavioural pace

Behaviour

Technology

TIME

- 26th May 2011

Intersperience Research Ltd.

• Introducing new technology initially creates a new, more complex environment to do the same tasks (Mackay et al, Beaudry et al)

• Productivity is regained once the user has learnt how to use the technology effectively – has adapted


• Technology developers create the most advanced experience for the user

– 3D technology for better gaming experience

– Internet access on TV

– Mobile technology allowing more instant, more widely available options

• Consumers’ approach to the better and the more advanced may have a slower pace:

– 19% would be comfortable managing their online accounts on their mobile phone

– 37% would be concerned about their privacy and security during their purchase via a mobile phone



• Look at today to predict tomorrow

– “Shine a light on the road in front”

• Behaviour change within a shifting landscape

• Futurology is NOT about 10 year predictions…

• …but, identify trends that will shape behavior 3 – 5 years out

– Constant revision

– React to disruptive shocks (e.g. iPad)

– Plan for change!


Novice User Experienced User

Early Internet use showed adoption would take longer

Intersperience Building Internet Relationships Project 2000

15- 26th May 2011Intersperience Research Ltd. Intersperience Home Access Project 2006

Early view of changing internet: From fixed to mobile


PC

Laptop

Mobile

Laptop

PC

Julie, 45 selects images to represent tasks she can do (get deliveries, learn how to grow flowers and make cakes, play music)

Abigail, 11 used images of mobile phones and on the internet as entertainment and leisure

Adult emphasis on task


Internet changing: From functional to ubiquitous

- <date>

The Dawning of the New Age

Intersperience Research Ltd.Open IdeasMay 2011

The Dawning Of The New Age

Technology

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