The dangers of blue carbon oﬀsets: from hot air to hot water? · • Using blue carbon to achieve...

December 2019

Thedangersofbluecarbonoffsets:fromhotairtohotwater?December 2019

Thedangersofbluecarbonoffsets:fromhotairtohotwater?December 2019

Briefing by Climate Analytics Authors: Claire Fyson, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Bill Hare

Cover image Mangroves in Banda Aceh, Indonesia Photo by Mokhamad Edliadi/CIFOR

Thedangersofbluecarbonoffsets:fromhotairtohotwater? 1

The dangers of blue carbon offsets: from hot air to hot water? December2019

Table of Contents

Keymessages............................................................................................................................2

Whatisbluecarbon?................................................................................................................4

Whataretherisksofusingbluecarbontooffsetemissions?...................................................4

Uncertainties......................................................................................................................................4

Impacts...............................................................................................................................................6

Offsettingandcarbontransfers................................................................................................9

LessonslearnedfromLULUCFaccounting..............................................................................10

Whatarethealternatives?.....................................................................................................10

References...............................................................................................................................12

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TheissueAstheinterestinusingnature-basedsolutionstomitigateclimatechangegrows,‘bluecarbon,’whichmeanscarbonsequesteredincoastalecosystems,isalsogarneringattention.AnumberofcountrieshaveproposedincludingbluecarbonintheirNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs),andthereisgrowinginterestamongsomegovernmentsandfossilfuelcompaniesinbluecarbonasanoffsetmechanism.Thisbriefingunpacksthekeychallengesandrisksassociatedwiththebluecarbonconceptbyconsideringthreekeyquestions.Whatistherealpotentialofbluecarbonasamitigationmeasure?Towhatextentiscarbonstorageincoastalecosystemsthreatenedbycurrentandfutureclimateimpacts?Andisthereadangerthatfocusonbluecarboncoulddetractfromreducingemissionsfromfossilfueluse?

Keymessages

• Usingbluecarbontoachievenationalmitigationtargetsrisksdilutingmitigationambitioninothersectors,whichcouldjeopardiseourabilitytolimitwarmingto1.5°C.Bluecarbonmustnotbeareplacementforrapidemissionsreductionsinothersectors.

• Theclimateeffectsofcarbonstoredinnaturalecosystemsandcarbonemissions

fromfossilfuelsarenotequivalent.Thismeansanyattemptstomeasureandsettargetsforcarbonsequestrationincoastalecosystemsshouldbekeptseparatefromemissionstargetsinothersectors.Lessonsfromaccountingforcarbonflowsinlanduse,landusechangeandforestry(LULUCF)haveshownthatintegratingnature-basedmitigationoffsetsundernationalmitigationtargetscreatesloopholes,hotair,andmeasurement,reportingandverification(MRV)challenges.

• Underpresentreportingandaccountingarrangementslossesfromextremeevents

andclimaticdisturbancesdonothavetobecountedbygovernmentsasemissions.Forbluecarbon,thiswouldmeanthatthelossesofcarbonfrommarineheatwaves,sealevelriseextremeeventsormultiplestressorswouldnotberecordedinnationalemissionsaccounts,eventhoughthepriorstorageofcarboncouldhavebeencountedasasinktowardsclimatetargets.Recentdie-backofcoastalecosystemsduringheatwaves(e.g.inSharkBay,Australia)haveillustratedhowsignificantthelossesofcarboncanbe.

• Focusingontheclimatesequestrationcomponentofcoastalecosystemswithina

mitigationcontextisalsoproblematicbecausetheirpotentialtoreduceemissionsanddrawdownCO2fromtheatmosphereishighlyuncertainandtoosmalltobeaneffectivemitigationstrategy.TheIPCCfoundthatcoastal‘bluecarbon’ecosystemshavealimitedglobalsequestrationpotentialofabout0.5%ofpresentdayemissionsannually(SROCC,IPCC2019).

• Ecosystemrestorationmayonlyprovidebenefitsifglobalemissionsremainlow.The

vulnerabilityofcoastalecosystemstoclimatechangeimpactsmeansthattheeffectivenesswithwhichtheydrawdowncarbonandthepermanenceoftheir


carbonstoragemaybejeopardisedunderthelevelsofwarmingandsealevelriseimpliedbythecurrentsetofemissionreductioncommitments(NationallyDeterminedContributionsorNDCs).

• AccordingtotheIPCC,exceeding1.5°Cwouldleadtothenear-completelossof

tropicalcorals,andwarmingof3°Cormore–wherecurrentNDCsaretakingus–wouldleadtohightoveryhighrisksformanycoastalecosystems(includingseagrass,saltmarshesandkelpforests)(SROCCIPCC2019).

• Itisessentialtopreventthedegradationofcoastalecosystems,butcarbon

sequestrationisnotnecessarilythemostvaluableservicetheseecosystemsprovide.Thewealthofpotentialco-benefitsfromcoastalecosystemconservationandrestoration,beyondcarbonsequestration,arejustificationenoughforschemestoincentivisetheirprotection.Additionally,therearesubstantialcapacityconstraintsforthemeasurementofecosystem-relatedcarbonfluxesinmanydevelopingcountries.

• Insummary,thescienceisveryclear:protectingcoastalecosystemsandthevaluable

servicestheyprovide–includinginadaptation–requiresrapidemissionsreductionsinallsectorstolimitwarmingto1.5°C.Highuncertaintiesandimpermanenceposesignificantriskstotheuseofbluecarbonremovalsasanoffsetforotheremissions(e.g.naturalgasemissions)remaininghigh,ortheirtransferintheParisAgreement’smarketmechanisms.Treatingnature-basedmitigationasequivalenttoanyotherformofmitigationcouldhavedangerousconsequencesfortheecosystemsthatsuchmeasureswouldseektoprotect.

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Whatisbluecarbon?Bluecarbonreferstothecarbonsequesteredincoastalecosystems–namelymangroves,seagrassesandsaltmarshes1.Deforestationanddegradationofmangrovesandothercoastalecosystemsisprogressingatanalarmingrate.AccordingtotheIPCC,“nearly50%ofcoastalwetlandshavebeenlostoverthelast100years,asaresultofthecombinedeffectsoflocalisedhumanpressures,sealevelrise,warmingandextremeclimateevents(highconfidence)”(IPCC2019).Estimatesofthetotalamountofcarbonstoredinthesenaturalecosystemsgloballyarehighlyuncertain,asareestimatesofthecarbonsequesteredeachyearthroughnaturalprocessesandthepotentialforbluecarbontocontributetomitigation.TheIPCC’sassessmentinitsSROCCfoundatheoreticalmaximumpotentialof2%ofcurrentglobalemissionspotential,whichdropsto~0.2GtCO2/yr(0.05GtC/yr;onlyabout0.5%ofcurrentglobalemissions)ifcostconsiderationsareconsidered.AccordingtotheSROCC,eventhismagnitudewouldrequireascaleofecosystemrestorationthatwouldbechallengingbecauseofthesemi-permanentandgoingnatureofmostcoastallandusechanges.Thecoastalecosystemsassociatedwithbluecarbonprovidenumerousothercrucialservices,bothforpeopleandforbiodiversity.Theneedtoconserveandprotectthesevitalecosystemsisgarneringincreasedattentionbutthishasledtodiscussionsovertheuseofbluecarbontoincentivisesuchefforts.However,afocusonthecarbonsequesteredincoastalareasrisksdistractingfromtheneedtourgentlymitigateemissionsinothersectors,aswellastheneedtopreservethelife-supportingecosystemservicesthatcoastalecosystemsprovide.

Whataretherisksofusingbluecarbontooffsetemissions?Therearethreefundamentalproblemswithusingmitigationthroughlandorocean-basednaturalsystemstooffsetCO2emissions:uncertainties,climatechangeimpacts,andtheriskofoffsetting.Thesearedescribedbelow.

Uncertainties Theuncertaintiesinthemeasurementofcarbonflowsinthehighlyvariableenvironmentinthecoastalzonearemuchhigherthantheuncertaintiesinemissionsinothersectors.Therearealsouncertaintiesoverthepermanenceofocean-basedmitigation,andtheriskofleakageofemissionsthroughcoastalchangeelsewhere.Theseuncertaintiesmeanthatmitigationusingcoastalecosystemscannotbetreatedlike-for-likewithotherformsofmitigation.

1CarbonsequestrationintheopenoceanisnottypicallyconsideredaBlueCarbonoption.Intheopenocean,human


1. Changesovertime

Tropicalmangroveforestschangeovertime.Mangrovesarenon-linearsystemsthatarenotinequilibrium,astheyhaveadaptedtogrowoncontinuallyevolvingshorelines.Theamountofcarbonsequesteredbymangrovesandothercoastalecosystemsvariessubstantiallybetweenlocationsandasafunctionoftime.Whilemangrovesareoftendescribedasbeingfarmoreintensecarbonsinksthantropicalforests,somemangrovesystemsmaynotactuallyaccumulateanycarbon.Forexample,asurveyof17Australianseagrasshabitatsrevealedan18-folddifferenceinthecarbonstored(Laveryetal2013).

2. Measurementuncertainties

Themeasurementofcarbonstorageisdifficultandshouldbeinterpretedcautiously.Someoftheprocessesinvolvedindrawingdowncarbonintosedimentsarehighlysitespecific,orarestillnotwellaccountedfor.Adameetal.(2017)comparedestimatesofmangroverootbiomasscalculatedusingallometricequationswithvaluesmeasuredinthefieldandfoundfieldmeasurementstobeonaverage40%smaller(withsomesamplesshowingadifferenceofover1000%).Anotherchallengeisthatanumberofprocessesincoastalsystemsarepoorlyunderstood.Forexample,thefateofcarbononceithasbeendepositedinacoastalareaisstillunknown(Atwoodetal2017).

ScientiststrytoassesshowcarbonsequestrationofIndonesia'smangroveforests.PhotobyCenterforInternationalForestryResearch(CIFOR)

Itisalsoverydifficulttodeterminewhichemissionsandremovalsarenaturalandwhichareanthropogenic.Onlyanthropogenicemissionsandremovalsshouldbeincludedinmitigationtargets.

Thesemeasurementchallengesareaparticularproblemforthosedevelopingcountrieswithlimitedcapacitiesformonitoringandreportingemissionsandremovals,leadingtodatagapsandevengreateruncertainties.

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3. CO2effects

MangrovesandseagrassesmayexperienceenhancedproductivityduetohigherCO2levels(IPCCAR5).Distinguishingthiseffectfromhumaninterventionstoenhanceproductivityandthuscarbonstoragewillbedifficult.

4. Permanenceandleakage

Aswithotherland-basedcarbonsequestration,ensuringpermanenceandpreventingleakageisverydifficult.Climatechangeimpactsoncoastalecosystemscanleadtoareversalofcarbonsequestrationinthefuture(seebelow).Inaddition,conservationofoneareamaydisplacedeforestationordegradationtoanotherarea,leadingtoleakage,andensuringthelongevityofcarbonstoredinconservedorrestoredmangrovesrequiresastrongMRVsystem(Murrayetal2009).

Impacts TherecentlyreleasedIPCCSpecialReportonOceansandCryosphereinaChangingClimatehasbroughtnewevidenceonthedevastatingimpactsthatfutureclimatechangecouldhaveoncoastalandoceanecosystems,pointingtotheimportanceofprotectingtheoceansbyenhancingambitionacrossallsectors.AccordingtotheIPCC’sSROCC,exceeding1.5°Cwouldleadtothenear-completelossoftropicalcorals,andwarmingof3°Cormore–wherecurrentnationallydeterminedcontributions(NDCs)aretakingus–wouldleadtohightoveryhighrisksformanycoastalecosystems(includingseagrass,kelpforestsandsaltmarshes).Onlylimitingwarmingto1.5°Ccanpreventlandandoceanecosystemsfromexperiencinghightoveryhighlevelsofrisk.

Suchimpactscouldaffectcarbonstorage(IPCCAR5(2013)).TheIPCC’sSROCChighlightedtheimplicationsoftheseimpactsforcarbonsequestration:“Underhighemissionscenarios,sealevelriseandwarmingareexpectedtoreducecarbonsequestrationbyvegetatedcoastalecosystems(mediumconfidence)”(Chapter5,SROCC)

Emissionsthatresultfromsuchreversalsmaygounaccountedfor,orremovalsmaybeoverestimatedorreversed.Theregionalvariationinclimateimpacts,andtheiraccelerationinfrequencyandintensitywithfuturewarming,willmakedesigningarobustsystemforaccountingfornaturaldisturbancesverydifficult.

1. Sealevelrise

Researchhasshownthatcoastalecosystemsinsomeregionsarevulnerabletosealevelrise.Ifsedimentsupplyissufficientformangrovestogrowinpacewithsealevelthenecosystemscancontinuetosurviveandtosequestercarbon,butinmanyregionssedimentsupplyisnotsufficient(Lovelocketal.2015).Forexample,intheIndo-Pacific–hometooverhalfoftheworld’smangroveforests–sedimentdeliveryisdeclining,largelyduetohumanactivity,e.g.dammingrivers.Mangroveforestsatsiteswithlowsedimentsupplyandlowtidalrange–suchastheGulfofThailandandtheSolomonIslands–areparticularlyvulnerable,andcouldbesubmergedby2070underevenalowlevelofsealevelrise(Lovelocketal.2015).


MangrovesinMalaita,SolomonIslands.PhotobyWadeFairley

TheIPCCSROCCfoundthatmangroveandmarshrestorationwouldonlybeeffectiveofuptoratesof0.5-1cmlocalsealevelriseperyear.Theselevelswillbefarexceededunderahighemissionsscenario(theSROCCgivesabestestimateof1.5cmglobalsealevelriseby2100underaRCP8.5scenario),andunderscenariosclosetocurrentNDCambitionlevels,sealevelrisewillalsolikelyexceed1cmperyeartowardstheendofthecentury(Nauelsetal2017).OnlyunderaParisAgreementscenariomayratesofglobalsealevelrisestaybelow0.5cmperyear(IPCC2019).However,evenundersuchascenariosomesystemsmaystillcomeunderpressurebecauseregionalsealevelriseinmanytropicalregionswillbewellabovetheglobalaverage.

TheIPCC’sSROCCfoundthat:“Globally,20–90%ofcurrentcoastalwetlandsareprojectedtobelostby2100,dependingonprojectedsealevelrise,regionaldifferencesandwetlandtypes”(B6.2,SROCCSPM).Italsostatesthat“Underhighemissionscenarios,sealevelriseandwarmingareexpectedtoreducecarbonsequestrationbyvegetatedcoastalecosystems(mediumconfidence)”(Chapter5,SROCC).

ExchangeatSBSTIPCCSROCCSpecialEvent,COP25Madrid,5December2019

Fijiintervention:

Wehavelearnedthatimpactsonoceanecosystemsarealreadyveryconcerning.TheIPCCSROCCassessedthatcoastalecosystemswithadaptationpotentialfaceclearefficiencylimitsunderongoingclimatechange.Mangrovesandsaltmarshes,forexample,wouldonlyprovideecosystem-basedadaptationpotentialbelow1cmofglobalmeansea-levelriseperyear.CouldtheSROCCauthorspleaseclarifywhichscenarioswouldallowsea-levelriseratestobelimitedtobelow1cmbytheendofthe21stcentury?

IPCCWGICo-Chairresponse(basedonsessionnotes):

Forascenariowithmeanprojectedwarmingof1.6°Cbytheendofthe21stcentury(RCP2.6),theprojectedaverageglobalsea-levelriserateis4mmperyear,withanupperlikelyrangeupto6mm,forawarmingofaround2.5°Cby2100,theprojectedaverageglobalsea-levelriserateshowsamedianvalue7mmperyear,withanupperlikelyrangeof9mmperyear,whichiscloseto1cmperyear.Currentevidencethereforesuggeststhatwarmingneedstobelessthanaround2.5°Cby2100tolimitglobalsea-levelriseratestolessthan1cmperyear.

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2. SealevelextremesandfluctuationTheIPCCSROCChasfoundwithhighconfidencethatextremesealeveleventsthatarehistoricallyrare(oncepercenturyintherecentpast)areprojectedtooccuratleastannuallyinmanylocationsby2050,especiallyintropicalregions.Sucheventscanbeverydamagingforcoastalecosystems.

Insomeregionssealevelcanfluctuatewithchangesinrainfall.Forexample,theIndo-PacificexperienceslowrainfallandlowsealevelsduringElNiño,andthiscanleadtosalinizationofthesoilandmangrovemortality(Lovelocketal2017).IntensificationofENSOunderclimatechangeandassociatedfluctuationsinsealevelmayleadtomangrovedegradationandcarbonrelease,andmayfurtherincreasemangrovevulnerabilitytootherimpactsofclimatechange,pollution,andotherhumaninfluences(Lovelocketal2017).

3. Oceanwarming

TheIPCCSROCChasfoundthat“Marineheatwaveshaveverylikelydoubledinfrequencysince1982andareincreasinginintensity(veryhighconfidence).”2

Itfurtherstates:“Itisverylikelythatbetween84–90%ofmarineheatwavesthatoccurredbetween2006and2015areattributabletotheanthropogenictemperatureincrease.”3Suchclimate-changeattributableoceanheatwaveshavealreadyhadsevereimpactsoncoastalecosystems.

Forexample,forafour-monthperiodin2010/2011seatemperaturesinwesternAustraliawere2-4°Caboveaverage,damaging36%ofseagrassbedsintheSharkBayarea(Arias-Ortizetal2018).Twoyearslater,theseecosystemshadonlypartiallyrecovered(Nowickietal2017).Recentresearchsuggeststhat2–9MtCO2couldhavebeenreleasedduringthethreeyearsfollowingtheheatwave,increasingAustralia’sland-usechangeemissionsby4-21%peryear(Arias-Ortizetal2018).

SharkBayseagrassexamplebefore2011heatwave(L)andstudysitein2013(R).CreditSharkBayEcosystemResearchProject.SharkBay,WesternAustralia.Photo:JoanCosta

2https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/headline-statements/3IPCCSROCCSPMParaA.2.3,https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/


Suchwarmingeventsareprojectedtobecomemorecommoninthefuture,whichisparticularlyconcerninggiventheslowrecoveryratesofmanycoastalecosystemsandthepotentialforadverseclimatechangefeedbacksduetocarbonrelease.

4. Interactingstressors

Manycoastalspeciesareabletocopewithhighlyvariableenvironments,buttheinteractionsofmultiplestressorscanamplifynegativeimpactsanddriveecosystemsintoalternativestates.Forexample,onestudyfoundthatamarineheatwaveincombinationwithafloodingonland,leadingtosedimentdischargeandhighwaterturbidityinthenear-shoremarineenvironmentinwesternAustralia,resultedinlossofseagrassbiomassbothaboveandbelowground,andultimatelyreducedtheresilienceoftheecosystemtofuturedisturbance(Fraseretal2014).

5. Impactsoncarbonsequestration

IncreasedCO2,warmertemperaturesandmoderateincreasesinsealevelcanincreaseratesofplantproductivityandcarbonsequestration.However,thesesamedriverscanalsoacttoreducethecarbonpool,forexample,warmertemperaturesandincreasedCO2canalsoincreasedecayrates,loweringtherateofcarbonsequestration.Howthesefactorswillplayoutinthefuture,especiallyinthecontextofthenegativeimpactsoutlinedabove,isveryuncertain.

OffsettingandcarbontransfersAkeyfindingoftheseIPCC’sSROCCisthatnature-basedmitigationmustnotbeareplacementforrapidlyacceleratingemissionsreductionsinothersectors:“Thepotentialclimaticbenefitsofbluecarbonecosystemscanonlybeaverymodestadditionto,andnotareplacementfor,theveryrapidreductionofgreenhousegasemissions.”(SROCCChapter5,executivesummary).Offsettingreducestheambitionofmitigationinothersectors,andcanleadtolock-intocarbonintensiveinfrastructure.Previouslyinsufficientmitigationactionmeansthatasubstantialvolumeofnegativeemissionswillbeneededinadditiontoambitiousactioninallothersectors,sothereisnospaceinemissionspathwaysfortheuseofmitigationfromnature-basedsystemstooffsetemissionsinothersectors,unlessthoseemissionsareprohibitivelyexpensivetomitigate.

Theuncertaintiesandvulnerabilitiesassociatedwithbluecarbonmeanthatitwillnotworktodeploybluecarbonasanoffsetforotheremissionsthatremainhigh.Anymovementofcarboncreditsanddebitsbetweennature-basedsystemsandothersectorsrisksleakingthehighuncertaintiesassociatedwithbluecarbontomitigationinothersectors,makingitdifficulttomonitorprogressandtoensurethatactionisinlinewiththeParisAgreement.Furthermore,theIPCCSROCCnotesthatecosystemrestorationmayonlyprovidebenefitsforlesssensitivesystemsandifglobalemissionsremainlow.

Thesehighuncertaintiesandvulnerabilitiesposesignificantriskstothetransferofbluecarbonremovalsbetweencountriesviamarketmechanisms.TherulesfortheParisAgreementmarketmechanismsarestillbeingagreed,andifremovalscanbetradedunder

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thesemechanismswithinsufficientsafeguardsinplacetoaddressimpermanenceanduncertainties,thiscouldunderminethecredibilityofthemarketssystem.

LessonslearnedfromLULUCFaccountingAnumberofrelevantlessonshavebeenlearnedfromtheland-use,land-usechangeandforestry(LULUCF)sector:• ThedevelopmentofaccountingrulesfortheLULUCFsectorundertheKyotoProtocolallowedgovernmentstodevelopcomplicatedrules,whoseimplicationsarebeyondtheunderstandingofmostpolicymakers,scientistsandmembersofcivilsociety.Theseruleshaveenabledsomeemissionstogouncountedtowardsnationalemissionstargets,creating‘hotair’thatunderminestheneedforrapidemissionsreductions.

• Forexample,underArticle3.7anycountrythathadland-useemissionsinthebaseyear(1990)canincludetheseintheirreferenceyearemissionswhencalculatingtheirreductiontarget.Anydecreasesinemissionsexcludingland-userelativetothebaseyearincludingland-useemissionsareawarded.Forexample,asubstantialdecreaseindeforestationratessince1990isallowingAustraliatocomplywithits2020Kyototargetwhenaccountingrulesareapplied,despiteacontinuedincreaseinfossilemissions(ClimateActionTracker2015,2017).

• NowcountriesvarywidelyinhowtheyincorporatetheLULUCFsectorintheirNDCs,whichleadstoconsiderableuncertaintyinemissionsreductiontargets(GrassiandDentener2015,FysonandJeffery2019),particularlywheregovernmentshavechosentoincludeLULUCFintheiroverallemissionstargetwithoutspecifyingitscontribution.TheinclusionofbluecarbonintheNDCspresentssimilarchallenges.

• Lossesfromextremeeventsandclimaticdisturbancesdonotneedtobecountedinnationalemissionsaccounts.Underpresentreportingandaccountingarrangementslossesofcarbonfrommarineheatwaves(asatSharkBay),sealevelriseextremeeventsormultiplestressors(asinthemassivemangrovediebackinAustralia’sGulfofCarpentaria)couldbeexcludedfromnationalemissionsreports,eventhoughthepriorstorageofcarboncouldhavebeencountedasasinkandcountedtowardsclimatetargets.

Whatarethealternatives?Coastalecosystemsarethreatenedbyanumberofstressors:coastalinfrastructure,tourism,agriculture,aquaculture,damdevelopment,pollution,andoverfishing,amongothersaswellasclimatechange.Therapidrateatwhichtheyarebeingdegradedisparticularlyconcerningbecausemangrovesandothercoastalecosystemsarevitalforcoastalcommunities,providingessentialfoodandresourcesaswellasbuildingresiliencetoclimatechangeimpactsthroughcoastalprotectionanderosionreduction.Itisthesebenefitsofcoastalecosystemrestorationthatshoulddriveconservationandrestorationefforts.


TheIPCC’sSROCCpointedspecificallytotheadaptationbenefitsthatcoastalecosystemsprovidetolow-lyingcoastalregions,includingSmallIslandDevelopingStates.However,thereporthighlightedthatecosystem-basedadaptationisonlyaneffectiveoptionunderthelowestlevelsofwarming.Therearelimitstotheeffectivenessofcoastalecosystem-basedadaptationathigherlevelsofwarming.Forexample,coralreefconservationandrestorationmaybeineffectiveifwarmingexceeds1.5°C;conservationandrestorationofwetlandssuchasmarshesandmangroveshasdecreasedeffectivenessat2°C.At2°Candabove,therewillbeanincreasingneedforhardcoastalprotectioninfrastructure,andagreaterriskofcoastalcommunityrelocation.Thesefindingsfurtheramplifytheneedtoreduceemissionsinlinewiththe1.5°CwarminglimitoftheParisAgreement,whichmustcomealongsideeffortstoconserveandrestorecoastalecosystems.Itisdifficulttogenerateeconomicincentivesforconservationofcoastalecosystemsbecausemanyoftheservicesthattheyprovidedonothaveamarketprice,andoftendecisionsthatresultintheirdegradationaremadebybodiesforwhomthevalueofmangrovesisnon-existent(Mukherjeeetal2014).Toprovideanincentiveforthepreservationandsustainableuseoftheseecosystems,PaymentforEcosystemServices(PES)schemescanbeusedtoplaceavalueonthoseservicesthatarevaluabletolocalcommunities.Thewealthofservicesprovidedbymangrovesandothercoastalecosystemmakesthemwell-suitedforsuchschemes.OneestimatefortheannualeconomicvalueofmangrovelossfromaquaculturecametoUS$4-17billion(Mukherjeeetal2014),andthislikelyunderestimatedthevaluetolocalpopulationsofanumberofbenefits.Notably,thesamestudyshowedthatcarbonsequestrationdoesnotrankhighlyintermsofeconomicvalueorexpert-basedvaluation.Numerousotherecosystemservicesaremoreimportantforlocalcommunities:food,livelihoods,constructionmaterialsandcoastalprotectionprovideessentiallifesupportservices,anditistheseservicesthatshouldbedrivingtheprotectionofcoastalecosystems.

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