The current political landscape and the big issues facing the new … · 2017-07-20 · between...
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LOCAL GOVERNMENT ASSOCIATION SUMMER 2017 COMMS & PARLIAMENTARY NETWORK
Transcript of The current political landscape and the big issues facing the new … · 2017-07-20 · between...
LOCAL GOVERNMENT
ASSOCIATION
SUMMER 2017 COMMS &
PARLIAMENTARY NETWORK
THE GENERAL ELECTION THAT WENT WRONG
2
GE2017 looked a reasonable bet
May look like blast from past but not – many old certainties overturned – working class gone Tory and the young bucking historical trends as not
having done so before.
70 seats changed hands – Tories net lost 13, Labour net gained 30. Combined Lab/Con vote
share highest since 1970 at 82.3%. Highest turnout since 1997 at 68.8%
WHAT HAPPENED?
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LEAD?
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0%
20%
40%
08/02/2017 08/03/2017 08/04/2017 08/05/2017
Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP
The election is announced 18th April
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LEAD?
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
15-Apr-17 25-Apr-17 05-May-17 15-May-17 25-May-17 04-Jun-17 14-Jun-17
All polls net Conservative lead
A CAMPAIGN OF MANY CHANGES
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-1
0
0
0
0
1 Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn
WHAT HAPPENED - CONSERVATIVES
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Massive swing from UKIP but fall in turnout in Leave areas
Succeeded in rural areas and smaller towns but not big cities
Increase in vote amongst C2DEs, contrary to increase among professionals for
Labour CASE STUDY: NORTH EAST
Only area of GB (outside Scotland) to see swing from Labour to the Conservatives –
of 0.3%
WHAT HAPPENED - LABOUR
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Areas with a high proportion of graduates drove increase in Labour vote
Labour did well in big cities but failed to make necessary gains in England
High proportion of Remain voters went Labour
CASE STUDY: LONDON
Large increase in the Labour vote – 6.3% swing from the Conservatives to Labour
THE NEW POLITICAL
LANDSCAPE
EXPLAINING THE SWING PART 1
10-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Proportion with a degree by Labour increase
EXPLAINING THE SWING PART 2
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-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Home owners Social renters Private renters
Correlations between tenure type and increase in Labour’s vote
A TALE OF AGE
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-7-5
4
11 12 13
24
19
14
6 5 1
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
18-24 35-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
% point vote share change
Change in Conservative Change in Labour
THE ROLE OF IDEOLOGY
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26%
27%
26%
44%
18%
29%
28%
30%
23%
27%
32%
38%
27%
20%
47%
0% 20% 40% 60%
GB average
Male
Female
18-24
65+
% identifying as…
Right wing In the centre Left wing
WHAT ROLE DID BREXIT PLAY?
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33%
47%
13%0% 7%
46%39%
7% 1% 7%
23%
66%
4% 1% 6%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Conserv
ati
ves
Labour
Lib
Dem
UK
IP
Oth
er
% GB vote share
Remain Leave Did not vote
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN
LOCALLY?
CONNECTING THE LOCAL TO THE NATIONAL
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39%
28%
18%4% 11%
43% 41%
8% 2%
6%
0%
20%
40%
60%C
onserv
ati
ves
Labour
Lib
Dem
UK
IP
Oth
er
% GB vote share
National Equivalent Vote 2017 GE vote share
WHAT ABOUT THE DEVOLUTION REVOLUTION?
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34% 33%29% 29% 29% 26% 26%
21%
0%
20%
40%
Nort
h T
ynesid
e
Cam
bri
dgeshir
e a
nd
Pete
rboro
ugh
West
of
Engla
nd
Doncaste
r
Gre
ate
r M
ancheste
r
West
Mid
lands
Liv
erp
ool C
ity R
egio
n
Tees V
alley
% turnout
WHAT DO LOCAL VOTERS WANT?
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PRIORITIES (SELECTING TOP 3)
MANCHESTER SHEFFIELD LIVERPOOL NORTH EASTWEST
MIDLANDS
Health care provision 68% 64% 70% 67% 63%
Emergency services 38% 38% 35% 40% 33%
Housing 36% 36% 40% 33% 37%
Schools and education (for people aged 16 or younger)
37% 36% 43% 34% 40%
Social care provision 34% 39% 37% 39% 35%
Transport 21% 18% 14% 21% 17%
Waste management 14% 9% 9% 10% 11%
Business support and inward investment
12% 17% 16% 22% 15%
Colleges and skills (for people aged over 16)
11% 12% 11% 11% 14%
Broadband infrastructure 5% 6% 4% 6% 4%
Sports and cultural events 3% 3% 3% 3% 4%
% saying the priority for metro mayors should be…
BREXIT AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
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All British adults Public sector workers
In my local area In the country In my local area In the country
To a great extent 18% 26% 14% 25%
To some extent 25% 30% 25% 37%
To a small extent 23% 22% 23% 22%
Not at all 29% 17% 31% 11%
Don’t know 5% 5% 6% 6%
% concerned about the impact of EU membership on…
LOCAL CHALLENGES – WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM?
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One in three (33%) say they wouldn’t be willing to pay any extra council tax to go directly into social care
77% of MPs say that councils should have more financial powers and freedoms
A third of GB adults say they would be willing to pay less than £50 a year to go directly to social care
TAKEAWAYS FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT
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In our latest MPs survey, Grenfell and other housing issues cited most as current postbag issues
Services most associated with local government tend to be bins and planning
The public are somewhat confused as to where the boundaries between local and central government lie
BIG POLITICAL PICTURE
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Everything is defeatable
GE2022 looking very tough indeed
EU negotiations not purely bilateral
ComRes was established to deliver better quality,
specialist research to support communications
and thought leadership objectives in the world of
public policy.
In the local government space we have
conducted:
- Planning polls
- Ward level interviews
- Qualitative research
Recent clients include:
WHAT CAN COMRES DO FOR YOU?
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Communication
Reputation Public Policy
WHAT VOTERS WANT FOR EUROPE
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7% 24% 44% 25%UK
11% 25% 44% 20%
22% 42% 23% 14%
5% 49% 34% 12%
23% 50% 17% 10%
6% 50% 31% 14%
45% 18% 23% 13%
20% 27% 36% 17%
37% 35% 17% 12%
A single country /a United States of Europe
Current EU model
Reduced to simply being about trade deals
between European countries
Disbanding the European Union
Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view of the size of the European Union (EU)?
