The current dynamics of commodity markets€¦ · The current dynamics of commodity markets ... ,...
Transcript of The current dynamics of commodity markets€¦ · The current dynamics of commodity markets ... ,...
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Thecurrentdynamicsofcommoditymarkets
Jean-FrançoisLambert
LondonBusinessSchool– 05th October2017
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
1. Commodities:theessential
2. Thekeydriversin2017
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
1. Commodities,theessential
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading– CrashCourse
• Commoditiesare theessentials
• Commonfeatures
ü Strategicbynature
ü Eachwithauniquenature
ü Marketprice
ü MostlytradedinUSD
ü Futuremarkets4
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LambertCommodities
• Whatisthesizeofthecake?
ü 4.5TrillionUSD
ü 25pct.ofworldtrade
• Howtoassesstheweighofthe3sectors?
ü Byvalue?Byvolume?
ü Onelead:Weightintrade(RICI)
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
Agricommodities(aka“Softs”)
• Cereals:ü Grains:Corn,Wheat,Barley,ü Rice
• Oilseeds:ü Soybean,PalmOil,Rapeseed
• OtherSofts:ü Cocoa,Cotton,Rubber,Coffee,Sugar
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
IdiosyncrasiesofAgriCommodities• Demandisforeseeable
ü Demographyü Urbanisationü Foodhabits
• Supplyisthedrivingfactor
ü Climateandenvironmentü Cropsdiseasesü Researchü Policies
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
• Whendeflated,FoodandAgrisubindexes,are flatoveralongperiod
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
Metals(andminerals)
• BaseMetals(RawcommoditiesandIndustrialMetals)
ü Raw:IronOre,CokingCoal
ü Ferrous:Steel,FerroChrome
ü NonFerrous:Copper,Aluminium,Nickel,Zinc,Lead,Tin
ü MinorMetals:Cobalt,Lithium,Magnesium,Titanium…
• PreciousMetals
ü Gold,Silver,Platinum,Palladium9
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
IdiosyncrasiesofMetals• Demandisthedrivingfactor
ü Economicdevelopmentü Urbanisationü Emergingmarketsü China
• Supplyisdrivenbylongtermtrends
ü 5-7yearlagtimefrominvestmenttoproductionü Noforeseeable“peakmineral”phenomenonü Technology
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
• China’soverwhelmingposition incommoditydemand
Source:HSBC
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
Gold:commodityand/oraquasicurrency
• AmirrortoUSD
• AGeopoliticalbeacon
• Akeyplayforcentralbankers
• Yet,physicaldemandisstronginIndiaandChina
• Andlikeotherpreciousmetals,atechnologicalplay
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LambertCommodities Sources FinViz 13
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
• Goldisthebesthedgeagainstconflicts
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SourcesCapitalEconomics
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
Energy
• Coal
• NaturalGas(conventional,unconventional,liquefied)
• Oil(conventionalandunconventional)
• RefinedOilproducts
• Ethanol
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
IdiosyncrasiesofEnergyCommodities
• Oilisthekingofcommodities
ü Thebulkofcommoditytrade
ü Themostliquidmarketü Dominantweightinvariousindexes
ü Thepriceofotherenergycommoditiesishighlycorrelated
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
IdiosyncrasiesofEnergyCommodities(2)
• ASupplydrivencommodityasuncertaintyoverdemand
growthislowfromshorttomidterm.
• Theimportanceofstocks.
• Conventionalvsunconventional:thenewnormal
• Riseofnonfossilenergy.Alongtermplay
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LambertCommodities
• Howtoassesstheweighofthe3sectors?
ü Byvalue?Byvolume?
ü Onelead:Weightintrade(RICI)
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
• Metals25pct.
Gold,Copper,Aluminium andSilveraccountfor70pct.
• Agri35pct.
Wheat,Corn,CottonandSoybeanaccountfor50pct.
• Energy40pct.
Crudeoilaccountsfor72.5pct.ofEnergy20
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
• Metals20pct
• Agri41pct.
• Energy39pct.
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
• Metals15pct.
• Agri29pct.
• Energy56pct.
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
Howcommoditypricesareformed?
1. TheFundamentals:Physicalsupplyanddemand
2. Therelationshipwiththedollar
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
SourceCapitalEconomics
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
Howcommoditypricesareformed?
3. Oilprice
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
COEREXECODECOMMODITYINDICES
Global Oil
Source Cercle Cyclope
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
27
Sourcesus.spindices.com
GSCIGlobalCommodityIndex GSCIEnergyCommodityIndex
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
Howcommoditypricesareformed?
4. Financialmarkets:commoditiesasanassetclass
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
2. KeyDriversin2017
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
a. Thenewnormalforoil
b. China’sresilience
c. USD
d. Thewildcards
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
a. Thenewnormalforoil
KeyDriversin2017
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Thelongtermview
SourceFinViz
OPECPricemanagement
Commoditysupercycle
FinancialcrisisRebound
OPECPricemanagement
TheNewNormal
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…Closer
SourceFinViz
June2014:OPECdecidestoletthemarketforcesprevail
IPWeekinLondon
OPEC/NOPECcuts
TheShaleBand
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Currentmarketdynamics:theoilband
• PriceshoveringbetweenacapandaflooronaverageüPetromatrix’s “Shaleband”from45to65$perbl.
üCurrentequilibriumbetween45to55$perbl.
• Therationale:üUShasbecomethenewswingproducer
üConventionalsupplyisstrongandgrowing
üDemandisgrowingbutnotexceedingsupplyanytimesoon
SourceFinViz
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TheUSShaleRevolution:OneToLast.• USbecamethesecondlargestoilproduceralmostatparwithSaudiArabiaandthefirstnaturalgasproduceraheadofRussia
• Withveryadifferentproductionpattern:largeopex andsmallercapexü“15daystodrillarig”.Lessrigsmorewellsandmoreproductivityperwells
üManyDrillingprofitablebelow60USDperbl.Largeproductivityimprovements.rigforthesameoutput
üCostssharplydownintheoilservicingindustry
üBreakevenat40USDperbl.
üWoodMackenziereportsa60pct Capexincreaseor15bn$amidtheUSfocussedproducers
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BreakevenpricesintheShaleoilproductionzones
SourceUSFederalReserveSystem
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Theoilbandmechanics(1)
• Ifsupplygrowsfasterthandemand:üpriceswilldrop
§ Conventionalproducerswillhavetocutproductionespeciallythemostexpensiveones
§ Demandinthecurrentcontextwilltaketimetorebound
üButifthislingers,peakoilconcernswillemergeandtherebalancingofdemandbysupplywilllookplausible
ü asaresultpricesbounceback
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Theoilbandmechanics(2)• Ifpricesreboundtoohigh:
üTheunconventionalproducerswillswiftlyreactivaterigsandaccelerate
production
üAsdemandislesselasticthansupply,therebalancingcanoccurratherfast
üPricesstabilize.Andfallagain
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ViableReservesvsOilPrice:
anillustration
OilPrice
PerCountryReserveBreakdownbtwviable&
unprofitableatthehighlightedoilprice
WorldReserves:1,739bn barrels
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Whatwouldderailtheshalebandtheory?
oBullish?§ Strongerdemand:1.6mbpd vs1.2oneyearago.Rebalancingisnear!§ 1trillion-dollarretrenchmentininvestmentsfortheglobaloilindustryasofjune 2016(WoodMackenzie).
§ Stocksaredecreasing
oBearish?§ PeakDemand:oilforgas§ ElectricVehicles§ OPEC/NOPECendofcuts
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Whatwouldderailtheshalebandtheory?
§ Stocksaredecreasing,butwithinreason
SourceEIA
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
b. China’sresilienceKeyDriversin2017
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
Chinain2015…
• Absorbed65pctoftotalseaborneironoretrade
• Imported45pctofrefinedcoppertrade
• represented51pctofworldwidenickelconsumption…
• and46pctofzincandtintotalconsumption,
• produces50pctoftheworldsteelproduction
• represented54pctofworldwidealuminiumconsumption source
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LambertCommodities
China’sweightoncommoditymarkets
SourcesFinancialTimes
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LambertCommodities
• Chinadelivereda6.7pct.GDPgrowthin2016.QEChineseway?
• Chinagrowthhasbeentargetedat6.5pctin2017.Itgrewby6.9pct
inQ2
• ThisismidtermforMrXi
• Debtisaconcern,butlikeJapanitismainlydenominatedinlocal
currencyandlocallyheld
• USDdenominateddebtrepresents5.9pct.ofGDP(Capital
Economics)
• Yetwhetherthe“realeconomy”isstillgrowingstronglyremains
debated
Chinaisdoingwelldespitepotentialworries
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
c. USD’sstrengthKeyDriversin2017
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CommoditypricesandUSD:Acloserelationship
• Traditionally,USDandcommoditieshaveaninvertedcorrelation
• NolongerinthewakeofTrump’selectionbutcorrelationisnowback
• Thelackofspecificfuel
o TheUSD.Shouldbestronger.Yet…
o TheCommodities.NoSupercyclelooming
• Sofornow themechanics areback:
o Dollarup- Commodity down
o Dollardown- Commodity up55
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LambertCommodities SourceFinViz &TradingEconomics.com
FedEffectTrumpEffect
ShaleBandEffect
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LambertCommodities
SourcesCapitalEconomics
57
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
d. Geopoliticsandclimate
KeyDriversin2017
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LambertCommodities
Thewildcard:Geopolitics
• Neversincethecoldwarhaveweseensomuchthreats/dislocations• Tonamebutafew:
§ ThreatsofdislocationinEuropeo Brexito Catalunya
§ AstrongerRussiao Ukrainao Balticrepublics
§ Kurdistanindependence§ NorthKoreaballisticcapabilities§ SouthChinaSeatobecometheSeaofChina
• Yetmarketsareintotaldenial.Forhowlong?
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LambertCommodities
Thewildcard:Climate• Climaticdisruptionsareafactortocountwithforprobablymanyyears• Tonamebutafew:
§ ElNiñoandLaNiña:Drywherewet.Wetwheredry§ Typhoons,CyclonesandStorms
• Oddsofoccurrencearerising• Potentialdisruptionofcommoditysupplychains
Australia
Peru
Texas
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
MyLong– Shortgame:
• Bandtradingforcrude-USShaleisresilientandnimble
• BullishonCopper– ChinaandEvs,plusdisruptionsinsupply
• Speculativebuyplay:lithium,Platinum,Palladium,Cobalt
• Shortonotherbasemetals– Pricesgotaheadofrealdemandon1st half17
• LongGold- Geopoliticalriskisatitshighestsincedecade.Quitecheapnow.
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LambertCommodities
DynamicsofCommodityTrading
MyLong– Shortgame:
• Nosupercycleasnonewjuggernautemerging– ExceptIndia,buttoosmallan
economytomakeadifferencefornow…
• Goodnews:nodisruptioninfoodsupply.SomuchforAgCommods.
• Commodityasanassetclass?Lookelsewherefornow.
Andwhataboutyour game?62