The Course of Demographic Revolutions in Europe

Kateřina IVANOVÁ

Department of Social

Medicine andHealth Care Management

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Pre-transition period

Pre-transition period (constant population – high death rates: 3-4 times higher than now; limiting birth rates if possible; adverse conditions; lack of resources).

Limiting birth rates: prehistoric times – breast-feeding, ancient times – slaves, middle ages – intercourse limitations, abandoning children, infanticide.

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First demographic revolution A

Crude birth rate decreases from 25-30 per 1,000 to less than 15 per 1,000.

Infant mortality significantly decreases and life expectancy rises from 30-35 years to approximately two-fold.

These changes result in the process of demographic ageing and rapid rise of population.

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Population of Europe - development trends between 400 BC and 2000 AD

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First demographic revolution B Crude birth rate decreases from 40-50 per

1,000 to less than 20 per 1,000. The demographic revolution onset is

characterized by total fertility rate decrease below 5.0 and its end by permanent decrease below 2.5.

Its onset was noticed in France as early as 18th century and soon after in England, then it gradually spread all over the world.

It lasted 100 years in some places and 60 years in others.

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First demographic revolution C Related to the development (modernization)

of the following three components:

– technological (means of transport, communication, medical technology, health care);

– structural (standard of living, social welfare, women’s education and employment) and

– cultural (democracy, equality of people, larger personal freedom, developing individualism).

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First demographic revolution D

is finished when: birth rate is already low, close to death

rate (low as well), growth rate is close to zero. For the time being population momentum plays a role in population growth.

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First demographic transition model

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Second demographic revolution A

Characterized by fertility rate falling below the replacement level, this does not secure population replacement.

Changes in death rate (consistent, slow improvement of the conditions) have only little impact on population growth.

The above mentioned changes are usually related to growing individualism and value orientation of people.

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Second demographic revolution B

This statement is not that simple, the process of human reproduction is affected by numerous causes and factors of biological, cultural, economical, political and value nature.

Changes also result from the modern society as a whole. Practically these result from available contraception, later and less frequent marriages.

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Second demographic revolution C

Logical sequence of demographic changes of the second demographic transition:

Total fertility rates decrease as higher-aged women do not give birth to children any longer.

Fewer higher-order births of children. Fewer pre-marital pregnancies and fewer

marriages due to brides’ pregnancies.

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Second demographic revolution D

However, the average age at the time of the first marriage kept decreasing.

The period between the marriage and the birth of the first child was longer, women gave birth to fewer children, there were fewer higher-order births, resulting in decreasing total fertility rates.

Divorce rates started to increase.

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Second demographic revolution E Young people postpone their marriages and

replace them by cohabitation (living together without being married). This increases the average age at the time of the first marriage.

Cohabitation is increasingly popular, young couples only get married after the bride is pregnant. This results in higher proportion of children born before marriages. The age of women giving birth to their first children rises.

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Second demographic revolution F Legalization of sterilization and abortions

resulted in further decrease of unwanted pregnancies which in turn lowered the number of births given by women at the end of their fertility.

Cohabitation gets more support due to the fact that it is favoured both by divorced people and by those whose partner in the previous marriage died.

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Second demographic revolution G Cohabitation is increasingly regarded as an

alternative to marriages, resulting in increasing number of born children.

Total fertility rates stabilize at low levels. After some time, total fertility rates begin to

rise a little as women who have been postponing their pregnancy start having their children. This also increases the proportion of first and second children born to higher-aged women.

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Second demographic revolution H

Voluntary childlessness is an increasingly more significant demographic feature.

Fertility rates of individual cohorts stabilize below the replacement level.

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Results of revolutions - transitions

A significant shift in the value system of the young generation. Simultaneously we observe immense plurality of opinions and ideas – diversification of life values and related lifestyles. This also results in plurality of partnership and family life.

The crucial role in all these changes is played by marked social and economic empowerment of women.

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The end Thank you for

your attention!!!!