The Conventions and the Campaign

3/7/2013

Clearly Stated Learning Objectives

• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

• Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the presidential nominating system in the context of the 2012 election

Office Hours

• Today 11-2

• 10-11 on Friday

REFORMING THE NOMINATING SYSTEM

The Major impact of the Modern Primary

• Vastly diminished role for party elites

• Potential for unacceptable candidates

• Greater reliance on horse race coverage

Reforms: A Regional Primary

• Advantages

• Disadvantages

Reforms: A National Primary

• Advantages

• Disadvantages

Reforms: The Status Quo

• The Parties are risk-averse

• States like their privileged position

• Front-loading has made a de facto national primary

The Three Periods of the Campaign

• The Summer

• The Conventions to the First Debate

• The Final Month

SUMMER TO THE CONVENTIONSFirst Period

ETCH-A-SKETCH

What the Primaries Did to Romney

• All “Unromneys were to his political right

• In 2008, he was beaten from the right

• He became “severely conservative”

Romney moved Right on

• Immigration

• Abortion

• Health Care

“Everything changes,” “It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can try to shake

it up and start all over again.”

Romney’s real Problem

• He is Broke

• He cannot Tap into money until after the nomination

• Obama has Plenty of stored up cash.

OBAMA IN THE SUMMER

2012 was no 2008

2008• He had faced the Clinton

War Machine

• There was a sense of something historic

• A message of Hope and Change

2012• Not as ambitious or

inspiring

• Facing a bad economy that he was supposed to fix

• Facing the real possibility of being outspent

The Economy

• FDR is the only one with a worse economy to win

• Bush I loses with a better economy

• Carter is crushed in 1980

OBAMA’S WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

The Window

• The time between the primary and the convention

• Do not let Romney grab the center

• Make him a conservative with an empty core

Framing Romney

• Two Things

– Rich

– Mormon

• Frame him early

Develop a Narrative against Romney

• A Rich Guy who didn’t play by the Rules

• Out of touch

• Flip-Floper and Bain

Romney as Out of Touch

• Doesn’t Care about average Citizens

• The Actual Quote• On Cnn

Attack Bain Capital

• “If Mitt Romney Wins, the Middle Class Loses”

• Most People Do not know about Bain

• It did have some drawbacks

Attack The Tax Return

• First response is dismissive shifty

• Romney pays 15.4% on 250 million

• Romney had 5 years to get this in order

How to Work the Message

• Go negative

• Spend a lot ($10 Million)

• The Rich Guy Image Sticks.

The National Convention

Not much fun anymore

The Old Convention

• The Political Opium Den

• The Role of Party Bosses

• The Excitement of an unknown nomineeThese Days are over

The Goals of the Modern Convention

1. Nominate a candidate

2. Selecting a Vice-President

3. Introducing the Nominee to the People

We know these things Already

The Conventions are no longer fun for Television

• We used to get gavel-to-gavel coverage

• Huge Audiences

• Hardly anyone watches them anymore

What the Media Wants

• A Brokered Convention

• Gloom, doom, drama

• They took their ball and went home

What the Parties Want

• The convention as Infotainment

• Gavel-to-Gavel advertisement

SCRIPTING THE CONVENTION AS THEATRE

The Democratic Convention

• The Location

• The Goal

The Republican Convention

• Location

• Reason

Making it Work

• Selection and Timing Of Speakers

• Timing of the Convention itself (backloading)