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The Contribution of Fusion to Sustainable The Contribution of Fusion to Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment
D J Ward
EURATOM/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, UK
This work was jointly funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and by EURATOM
OutlineOutline
The Challenge Resource Availability Emissions Waste Safety Costs and Investment Conclusions
Information derived from detailed technical work around power plant and socio-economic studies. Only summary in each area is given here.
The Challenge
How can the world continue to develop and poor economies grow, without excessive “cost”, whether economic, environmental or other?
Human Development Index (health, education, GNP…)Human Development Index (health, education, GNP…)
For all developing countries to reach this point, would need world energy use to double with today’s population, or increase 2.6 fold with the 8.1billion expected in 2030
Even if developed countries came down to this
point the factors would be 1.8 today, 2.4 in 2030
Goal (?)
Example of Excessive CostExample of Excessive Cost
London smog (pollution event) Cost associated with industrialisation but overcome by
regulation
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17
December 1952
Nu
mb
er o
f d
eath
s
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
SO
2-C
on
cen
trat
ion
[p
pm
]
Death
SO2-Concentration
Thousands die in single pollution episode.
Source: Wilkins
Example Where Lack of Development Example Where Lack of Development Imposes Excessive CostImposes Excessive Cost
Developing country biomass use generates indoor particulates.
Up to 2.5 million premature deaths each year, mostly women and children
Cost associated with insufficient or inappropriate development
Source: WHO
Growth in Energy Use is EnormousGrowth in Energy Use is Enormous
•Source: BP
In the last 2 years growth in Chinese consumption has exceeded total German consumption
Primary Energy (Mtoe)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Germany
China
India
Predicted Energy Growth Primarily in Predicted Energy Growth Primarily in Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries
10
12
14
16
18
20Gtoe
Developing countriesFSU/CEEOECD
0
2
4
6
8
1860
Source: World Energy Council, World Bank.The graph for the period 2000-2060 shows a scenario of future energy consumption based on current trends.
1880 1900 19801940 20201920 20001960 2040 2060
This assumes no increase in OECD energy consumption (efficiency improvement balances growth)
Big QuestionsBig Questions
How will this rising demand continue to be met?
What is the impact of the rising demand (on health etc)
Can fusion contribute?
China Fuel Consumption 2005China Fuel Consumption 2005
In business as usual scenarios, most world energy will be supplied by coal by 2100Source: BP, ECN
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
oil
eq
uiv
ale
nt
Air Pollution in CitiesAir Pollution in Cities
Source: OECD Environmental data 1995, WRI China tables 1995, Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi. "Ambient Air QualityStatus and Statistics, 1993 and 1994", Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992, EPA, AIRSdatabase.
0
100
WHO Guidelines
200
300
400
500
600
700
800annual mean concentration, ug/m3
MexicoCity
Mexico
BeijingChina
XianChina
JilinChina
CalcuttaIndia
DelhiIndia
JakartaIndonesia
BangkokThailand
TokyoJapan
New YorkUSA
World Bank estimates coal pollution leads to 300,000 early deaths in China each year
Paradox of Increasing Energy Demand but Paradox of Increasing Energy Demand but Reducing Carbon EmissionsReducing Carbon Emissions
0
1000
2000
3000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Time
En
erg
y (
EJ
/ye
ar)
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
(G
t/y
ea
r)Energy (EJ/year)
CO2 (Gt/year)
World energy growth predicted to continue but CO2 should plateau and decline to keep atmospheric content below e.g. 550 ppm. Decoupling energy and CO2 will require dramatic changes in energy systems.Source: IPCC
How Large is the Carbon Challenge?How Large is the Carbon Challenge?
This is very challenging, e.g. fission capacity x15
This is extremely difficultSource: Sokolow
Resource Availability
Ultimate Fuel Resource for Ultimate Fuel Resource for Different Energy SystemsDifferent Energy Systems
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
oil gas Coal U Breeder Lithium
Ye
ars
of
Wo
rld
en
erg
y s
up
ply
Lower resource
Upper resource
New Resource
Large resources in coal, fission breeder and fusion. Solar provides a large resource as well.Source: WEC, BP, USGS, WNA
Other MaterialsOther Materials
Although fusion fuels appear essentially unlimited, we should take care not to be too dependent on other scarce resources. Examples often quoted are tantalum (used as an alloying element in low activation steels) and Beryllium.
On the other hand, materials procurement is a small fraction of the cost of fusion electricity so large increases in the price of raw materials could be tolerated.
Emissions
Radiological Hazard of Different Sources of EnergyRadiological Hazard of Different Sources of Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
food
(K-4
0)
fissio
n (C
-14)
geot
herm
al (R
n-22
2)
coal
(K-4
0, U
238,
Th2
32)
gas
fusio
n (C
-14,
H-3
)
doub
le gl
azing
ma
nS
v/G
Wy
ea
r
2000 1500
Food column is indicative of background effects – not directly comparable to others. Double glazing is due to effect of reduced ventilation on indoor radon.Source: UNSCEAR, NRPB
Hazard Including Other RisksHazard Including Other Risks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
bio
ma
ss in
de
velo
pin
gco
un
trie
s (a
irp
ollu
tion
)
coa
l (a
irp
ollu
tion
)
foo
d(r
ad
ioa
ctiv
ity)
fissi
on
(ra
dio
act
ivity
)
coa
l(r
ad
ioa
ctiv
ity)
fusi
on
(ra
dio
act
ivity
)
Re
lati
ve
ha
rm
3000
Conventional energy hazards are enormously greater than fusion hazards.Source: WHO, UNSCEAR, NRPB, EC (ExternE)
Waste
Potential Harm from Waste MaterialsPotential Harm from Waste Materials
Comparison of Potential Ingestion Dose from various power sources
1.0E-07
1.0E-06
1.0E-05
1.0E-04
1.0E-03
1.0E-02
1.0E-01
1.0E+00
1.0E+01
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Time after final shutdown (y)
Rad
ioto
xici
ty In
dex
(In
ges
tion
) Coal
PWR
EFR A
EFR B
Model A
Model B
Model C
Model D
Model AB
Radiological hazard from fusion materials decays rapidly, with half life of around 10 years.Source: PPCS
Specific Example - Carbon-14Specific Example - Carbon-14
Carbon-14 is produced naturally in the atmosphere by cosmic ray bombardment of nitrogen.
Nitrogen in a fusion plant undergoes the same effect, but with much larger fluxes.
To keep C-14 production well below natural level requires nitrogen concentrations at or below 100 ppm.
This is true of some materials and not others, so choices can be important– SS-316 600 ppm– OPSTAB 3,000 ppm– RAFM <100 ppm
C-14 Lifetime Production from PPCS Plant ModelsC-14 Lifetime Production from PPCS Plant Models
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
A B C D
PPCS Plant Model
To
tal C
-14
pro
du
cti
on
(P
Bq
)
Model D combines SiC with a tungsten carbide shieldSource: PPCS
Safety
Releases in AccidentReleases in Accident
Bounding accident analysis, combines the worst outcome in each area.
Releases still small and doses to the public small.
Model Dose
A 1.2 mSv
B 18.1 mSv
Compared with approximately 4 mSv average background in EUSource: PPCS
TritiumTritium
One of the main hazards in an accident Maximum possible releases from an internal accident
are a few 10’s of grammes. Doses to local population are, in the worst case, too low
for evacuation to be considered. An external accident, e.g. enormous earthquake, could
potentially release more but the consequences of the event itself would be much more serious than any releases from the plant.
Source: PPCS, SEAFP
Costs and Investment
Costs Reduce Through R&D and ScaleCosts Reduce Through R&D and Scale
1
10
100
1000
10000
1.00E+02 1.00E+04 1.00E+06 1.00E+08 1.00E+10
Fusion Power (W)
Cap
ital
Co
st p
er W
($/
Wp)
CMODCOMPASS
DIIID
JET
ITER
ITER98
Power Plant
GW scale devices projected to be in few $/W rangePower which would be produced if non-DT devices were to use DT
Technological Learning Reduces Costs Technological Learning Reduces Costs Through ExperienceThrough Experience
Source: Solarbuzz
Large Volatility in Energy MarketsLarge Volatility in Energy Markets
EU ETS Carbon price €/tonne CO2
Factor of 3 in 1 week
World oil price
Factor of 7 in 7 years
The target for a future energy price is very uncertain.
Source: NYMEX
Direct Cost Comparison with Direct Cost Comparison with Other Future ProjectionsOther Future Projections
Large uncertainty inherent in projections. Include projected fuel price increases but no carbon tax. Wind is near term technology but no standby or storage costs.
Source: “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity” IEA, 1998 Update, PPCS
0
5
10
15
20
CCGT Fission Wind Fusion
coe(
€cen
ts/k
Wh
)
lower
upper
How Can Fusion Contribute to a How Can Fusion Contribute to a Future Energy Market?Future Energy Market?
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
12.5
15
17.5
20
22.5
25
Electricity production
[EJe]
SOLARWIND TURBINESBIOMASS/WASTEFUSION POWERNUCLEARNATURAL GASCOALHYDRO
In a CO2 constrained scenario, fusion can enter the Western Europe energy market as coal is progressively excluded. Situation for the world is more stringent as shown by initial results of new model – EFDA/TIMES.
Source: ECN
What Approach Should be Taken to Bring What Approach Should be Taken to Bring New Energy Systems to Market?New Energy Systems to Market?
Introduction of new energy sources is essential. This requires effort at all points in the chain - Research,
Development, Demonstration and Deployment is essential.
Fusion (if successful) is a good option for large-scale deployment globally, because of its enormous fuel resource and favourable safety and environmental characteristics.
Is Enough Being Done?Is Enough Being Done?
Public Sector Energy R&D is a negligible fraction of the world energy spend. Fusion is a small part of that negligible fraction. Source: IEA, BP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Public Energy R&D
Other
Fusion
Fission
Renew ables
Fossil
Conservation
0.E+00
1.E+06
2.E+06
3.E+06
4.E+06
Es
tim
ate
d E
ne
rgy
Ma
rke
t (M
$)
Public R&D
renew ables
electricity (ex fuel)
coal
gas
oil
Is Enough Being Done - UK?Is Enough Being Done - UK?
Overall energy R&D is far too low - less than 0.3% of market – to achieve a transformation in the energy markets.
UK Parliament Science and Technology Committee 2003 “expenditure on energy research has been pitiful”
0.00E+00
2.00E+10
4.00E+10
6.00E+10
8.00E+10
1.00E+11
1.20E+11
UK Fusion UK electricity BP turnover
An
nu
al s
pen
d (
£)
ConclusionsConclusions
World energy consumption is likely to more than double even if OECD countries cap their energy consumption.Continuing business as usual implies a large increase in CO2 emissions and other pollutants globally.There is an enormous potential market for low pollution, low carbon energy sources, such as fusion.Fusion has very large benefits in terms of resources, environmental impact, safety and waste materials.We must focus on demonstrating fusion as a power source, ensuring these benefits are optimised, at the same time ensuring costs are reasonable.The world is not putting sufficient effort into energy R&D if we are to achieve the transformation in energy markets that is needed.