The Contribution of Agriculture to the The Contribution of Agriculture to the Economic Reforms of SyriaEconomic Reforms of Syria

NAPCNAPCMinistry of Agriculture and Agrarian reformMinistry of Agriculture and Agrarian reform

Agriculture-related WTO Agriculture-related WTO Agreements: Opportunities and Agreements: Opportunities and

ChallengesChallenges

Nasredin Hag ElaminNasredin Hag Elamin

FAO Regional Office for the Near East, CairoFAO Regional Office for the Near East, Cairo

Requirement and Implications of Requirement and Implications of AccessionAccession

Policy Policy - - RightsRightsFramework Framework - - ObligationsObligations

OutcomeOutcome - - Potential gainsPotential gains

- - Potential risksPotential risks

Most risks are certain, but attaining gains requires a Most risks are certain, but attaining gains requires a lot of effort in terms of negotiating capacity and lot of effort in terms of negotiating capacity and enhanced supply-side capacitiesenhanced supply-side capacities

What does WTO offer? What does WTO offer?

Access to a more transparent and predictable Access to a more transparent and predictable trading systemtrading systemExporters receive MFN treatment in markets Exporters receive MFN treatment in markets abroadabroad– A major improvement for those who face sanctions or A major improvement for those who face sanctions or

unfair treatment in world marketsunfair treatment in world markets

Access to WTO’s dispute settlement processAccess to WTO’s dispute settlement processOpportunity to ‘bind’ tariff commitments so as to Opportunity to ‘bind’ tariff commitments so as to avoid future policy back-sliding avoid future policy back-sliding

Potential gainsPotential gains: All of these reduce business : All of these reduce business uncertainty, encourage investment, increase uncertainty, encourage investment, increase exports and ultimately raise incomesexports and ultimately raise incomes

RisksRisks

Reduced policy space to design domestic Reduced policy space to design domestic priorities priorities

Some of the emerging and growing Some of the emerging and growing sectors/sub-sectors may prematurely be sectors/sub-sectors may prematurely be exposed to unnecessary, and possibly exposed to unnecessary, and possibly unfair, external competitionunfair, external competition

WTO Provision on AccessionWTO Provision on AccessionArticle XII of the Marrakesh Agreement establishing

the WTO deals with accession. It reads as follows:

“Any State or separate customs territory possessing full autonomy in the conduct of its external commercial relations and of the other matters provided for in this Agreement and the Multilateral Trade Agreements may accede to this Agreement, on terms to be agreed between it and the WTO. Such accession shall apply to this Agreement and the Multilateral Trade Agreements annexed thereto.”

WTO Provision on AccessionWTO Provision on Accession

Thus, Article XII gives no guidance on:

o the “terms to be agreed”, these being left to negotiations between the WTO Members and the applicant; or

o the procedures to be used for negotiating these terms, these being left to individual Working Parties to agree.

The Negotiation DrivesWTO members ask for concessions from

applicantso .. “accession of new members should

strengthen the system rather than weaken it”.. e.g. they ask for “meaningful market-access commitments".

o "WTO-plus" obligations

Applicants, on the other hand, look for flexibility

- e.g. market access commitments appropriate to the level of economic development of the Applicant"

WTO Agreements of direct WTO Agreements of direct relevance to agriculturerelevance to agriculture

Agreement on AgricultureAgreement on Agriculture

Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS)Phytosanitary Measures (SPS)

Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT)Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT)

Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS)Property Rights (TRIPS)

Ministerial Decision on Measures Concerning the Possible Ministerial Decision on Measures Concerning the Possible Negative Effects of the Reform Programme on Least-Negative Effects of the Reform Programme on Least-Developed and Net Food-Importing Developing CountriesDeveloped and Net Food-Importing Developing Countries

Agreement on AgricultureAgreement on Agriculture

The three main provisions of the AoA aim at:

– improving market accessimproving market access

– reducing domestic supportreducing domestic support

– reducing export subsidiesreducing export subsidies

SPS AgreementSPS AgreementBasic right: the right to take SPS measures necessary for the protection of human, animal or plant life or health

Obligation: ensure that any SPS measure is applied only to the extent necessary to protect human, animal or plant life or health based on scientific principles

Key provisions:– Scientific Justification (risk assessment)– Harmonization (CODEX, IPPC, OIE)– Equivalence

Experience with Experience with Implementation Implementation

High compliance with the AoAHigh compliance with the AoA

Support to agriculture in the developed Support to agriculture in the developed countries remains high (above 1986-88 countries remains high (above 1986-88 levels)levels)

No clear improvement in border protection No clear improvement in border protection (with a few exceptions) (with a few exceptions)

Little reduction in export subsidiesLittle reduction in export subsidies

Developing countries face some difficulties Developing countries face some difficulties in implementing their commitmentsin implementing their commitments

Main features of commitments made Main features of commitments made by Near East countries on AoAby Near East countries on AoA

Tariffs:Tariffs:– Relatively high bound tariffs Relatively high bound tariffs – Significant overhangs Significant overhangs – No access to SSGs (apart from 2 countries); No access to SSGs (apart from 2 countries);

TRQs (only 2 countries)TRQs (only 2 countries)

Domestic supportDomestic support– Sufficient flexibility: GB, Article 6.2 andSufficient flexibility: GB, Article 6.2 and de-minimis– Sector-wide support is important (irrigation, fuel, transport) Sector-wide support is important (irrigation, fuel, transport)

and much of it has not been reported in base yearsand much of it has not been reported in base years

No export subsidiesNo export subsidies

BahrainBahrain EgyptEgypt JordanJordan MoroccoMorocco OmanOman TunisiaTunisia

BTBT ATAT BTBT ATAT BTBT ATAT BTBT ATAT BTBT ATAT BTBT ATAT

Wheat Wheat 3535 55 55 11 00 00 170170 5656 55 00 9898 6666

Rice Rice 3535 55 3030 2020 55 55 155155 9191 55 6060 3535

BarleyBarley 3535 55 1010 55 99 00 5050 2727 55 7575 7373

BeefBeef 3535 55 1010 55 16.416.4 17.417.4 239239 189189 55 00 7575 7373

Live sheep Live sheep 3535 55 1010 55 7.27.2 55 6262 329329 55 nana 180180

SheepmeatSheepmeat 3535 55 55 55 5.55.5 5.15.1 289289 77 00 100100 115115

Poultry meatPoultry meat 3535 55 6060 101101 7575

TomatoesTomatoes 3535 55 2020 00 3030 3434 4040 6464 55 150150

PotatoesPotatoes 3535 3.83.8 1010 5.35.3 30.830.8 17.917.9 3434 5050 5454 55 150150 6969

Citrus fruit Citrus fruit 3535 55 6060 4040 32.432.4 32.132.1 3434 1515 55 200200 200200

Olive oilOlive oil 3535 55 2020 12.512.5 3030 nana 3434 1414 88 120120 115115

MilkMilk 3535 55 60.360.3 2525 2020 3030 8787 109109 7575 00 180180 180180

Major issues raised by Major issues raised by developing countriesdeveloping countries

Imbalance in commitments between the Imbalance in commitments between the developed and developing countriesdeveloped and developing countriesThe need for additional flexibility: The need for additional flexibility: Improving agriculture development and Improving agriculture development and food security requires domestic policy food security requires domestic policy flexibilityflexibilityThe need to operationalise the Marrakesh The need to operationalise the Marrakesh Decision on LDCs and NFIDCsDecision on LDCs and NFIDCsCapacity building: need for assistanceCapacity building: need for assistance

Key Concerns of the NE CountriesKey Concerns of the NE Countries

I.I. Food imports (managing food imports)Food imports (managing food imports)

II.II. Access to the developed country Access to the developed country markets, particularly the EU markets, particularly the EU

Experience of the Recently Acceded Experience of the Recently Acceded Members (RAM) – major ConcernsMembers (RAM) – major Concerns

RAMs made more concessions compared with countries that joined before 1995

Some countries could not get some of the essential special and differential treatments for developing countries

Complications with the new Doha negotiations

The Experience of RAMs – Some The Experience of RAMs – Some cases of successcases of success

Some countries succeeded in achieving Some countries succeeded in achieving some additional special treatment: some additional special treatment: – e.g. flexibility in terms of base period (Nepal e.g. flexibility in terms of base period (Nepal

and Taiwan)and Taiwan)– Seasonal tariffs for horticultural crops, e.g. Seasonal tariffs for horticultural crops, e.g.

JordanJordan– Some countries bound a number of specific or Some countries bound a number of specific or

compound ratescompound rates ( (Bulgaria, Kyrgyz Republic, Bulgaria, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Georgia and Croatia Latvia, Georgia and Croatia ))

– Longer implementation period (China)Longer implementation period (China)

CountryCountry AppliedApplied AccededAcceded S & DS & DNepalNepal 19991999 20032003 YESYES

CambodiaCambodia 19991999 20032003

TaiwanTaiwan 19921992 20022002 YESYES

ChinaChina 19871987 20012001 YESYES

OmanOman 19961996 20002000 YESYES

JordanJordan 19941994 20002000 YESYES

PanamaPanama 19911991 19971997 YESYES

MongoliaMongolia 19911991 19971997 YESYES

EcuadorEcuador 19921992 19961996 YESYES

MacedoniaMacedonia 19941994 20032003

ArmeniaArmenia 19931993 20032003 YESYES

MoldovaMoldova 19931993 20012001

LithuaniaLithuania 19941994 20012001

CroatiaCroatia 19931993 20002000

AlbaniaAlbania 19921992 20002000

GeorgiaGeorgia 19961996 20002000

EstoniaEstonia 19941994 19991999

LatviaLatvia 19931993 19991999

Kyrgyz Rep.Kyrgyz Rep. 19961996 19981998

BulgariaBulgaria 19861986 19961996

AOA Commitments made by RAMsAOA Commitments made by RAMs

MemberMember

Year of Year of accessioaccessio

nnAverage Average tariff %tariff %

Final Total Final Total AMSAMS

(million US$)(million US$)de minimis de minimis

%%Access to Art. Access to Art.

6.26.2Bound export Bound export commitmentcommitment

AlbaniaAlbania 20002000 1111 00 55 55 00

KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan 19981998 1212 00 55 55 00

OmanOman 20002000 3131 00 10%10% yesyes 00

JordanJordan 20002000 2525 1.91.9 10%10% yesyes 00

Saudi A.Saudi A. 20052005 12.212.2 858858 nana nana nana

Other developing countries:Other developing countries:

NepalNepal 20032003 4242 00 10%10% yesyes 00

CambodiaCambodia 20032003 n.a.n.a. 00 10%10% yesyes 00

TaiwanTaiwan 20022002 1818 14,16514,165 5%5% 00

ChinaChina 20012001 1515 00 8.5%8.5%

included as included as de minimisde minimis 00

PanamaPanama 19971997 26-3026-30 00 10%10% yesyes 0 from 20030 from 2003

MongoliaMongolia 19971997 18-2018-20 00 10%10% yesyes 00

EcuadorEcuador 19961996 2626 00 10%10% yesyes 00

What if Syria is treated, on average, What if Syria is treated, on average, liker other RAMs?liker other RAMs?

Domestic support – Domestic support – sufficient flexibilitysufficient flexibility– Green Box measuresGreen Box measures– De minimisDe minimis (10%) (10%)– Article 6.2 Article 6.2

Support to inputsSupport to inputsSupport to agricultural credit and investmentSupport to agricultural credit and investment

– Total AMSTotal AMS

Market access – Market access – tighter commitmentstighter commitments– Binding tariffs at their applied levelsBinding tariffs at their applied levels– But, Syria may consider asking for:But, Syria may consider asking for:

Seasonal tariffs for some productsSeasonal tariffs for some productsAccess to special safeguardsAccess to special safeguards

Export subsidiesExport subsidies– Possible access to the SDT for subsidising marketing and freight Possible access to the SDT for subsidising marketing and freight

of agric exportsof agric exports

LessonsLessonsSpecial and differential treatment for developing Special and differential treatment for developing countries is not automatic and the acceding countries is not automatic and the acceding country has to ask for itcountry has to ask for itCountries should avoid making any statement or Countries should avoid making any statement or commitment that prohibits any form of a commitment that prohibits any form of a measure other than those implied in the basic measure other than those implied in the basic rules rules Logical justifications, existing legislations and Logical justifications, existing legislations and programmes and proof of information and their programmes and proof of information and their sources are always critical in obtaining the sources are always critical in obtaining the required treatment required treatment Use of new forms of alternative trade measures, Use of new forms of alternative trade measures, e.g. seasonal tariffse.g. seasonal tariffs

RecommendationsRecommendationsEffective participation in the negotiationsEffective participation in the negotiations

– Continue to strengthen analytical capacity and access Continue to strengthen analytical capacity and access to informationto information

– Conduct impact studies Conduct impact studies – Develop negotiating strategy and fall-back positionsDevelop negotiating strategy and fall-back positions– Raising awareness and involving all stakeholders in Raising awareness and involving all stakeholders in

the processthe process– Strengthening negotiating skill and tacticsStrengthening negotiating skill and tactics

Taking advantage of existing and new trading Taking advantage of existing and new trading opportunitiesopportunities

– Raising quality standards (regardless of WTO)Raising quality standards (regardless of WTO)– Focusing in on products for which opportunities are Focusing in on products for which opportunities are

relatively high, e.g. olive oil, sheep meat, fruit and relatively high, e.g. olive oil, sheep meat, fruit and vegetablesvegetables

Preparing for WTO negotiations: a Preparing for WTO negotiations: a typical case of a developing countrytypical case of a developing country

Developing negotiating position

Consultation

Analysis

• Government Ministries

• Representatives of farmers and traders

•Government •Research institutions

Government Ministries

Preparing for WTO negotiations: a case Preparing for WTO negotiations: a case of a successful developing countryof a successful developing country

Developing negotiating position

Consultation

Analysis

• Government Ministries

• Faculties of Agric.• Farmer and Traders• NGOs

• Universities Lead by Faculty of Agriculture• Research institutions • NGOs • Government Ministry

Government MinistriesFarmers, Traders, backed by universities and research inst.

Thank you!Thank you!

SPS/TBT – barriers to exportsSPS/TBT – barriers to exports

Widespread evidence of SPS barriers to exports, Widespread evidence of SPS barriers to exports, and that incidence of these barriers is increasing and that incidence of these barriers is increasing over timeover timeSPS standards becoming increasingly complex, SPS standards becoming increasingly complex, products treated inconsistently in different products treated inconsistently in different marketsmarketsLack of resources and technical expertise a Lack of resources and technical expertise a problem for many developing countries to meet problem for many developing countries to meet SPS standardsSPS standardsPrivate sector standardsPrivate sector standards

Reginal Trade AgreementsReginal Trade Agreements

The commitments The commitments made by individual made by individual countries in the countries in the context of the WTO context of the WTO limit the scope for limit the scope for deepening and deepening and expanding RTAs in expanding RTAs in the regionthe region

Range of bound tariffs in the NE regionRange of bound tariffs in the NE region

Bound ratesBound ratesApplied Applied

ratesrates

WheatWheat 00 170170 11 6666

RiceRice 55 155155 55 9191

BeefBeef 55 239239 00 2727

Sheep and Sheep and goatgoat 55 289289 55 115115

PoultryPoultry 1010 100100 00 6060

PotatoesPotatoes 1010 150150 00 6060

olive oilolive oil 2020 120120 55 115115

SugarSugar 77 164164 55 2121

LessonsLessons

S & D treatment is not automatic and the S & D treatment is not automatic and the acceding country has to ask for itacceding country has to ask for itCountries should avoid making any statement or Countries should avoid making any statement or commitment that prohibits any form of a commitment that prohibits any form of a measure other than those implied in the basic measure other than those implied in the basic rules rules Logical justifications, existing legislations and Logical justifications, existing legislations and programmes and proof of information and their programmes and proof of information and their sources are always critical in obtaining the sources are always critical in obtaining the required treatment required treatment Use of new forms of measures: seasonal tariffs Use of new forms of measures: seasonal tariffs (e.g. for horticultural products) (e.g. for horticultural products)

example

Need for Trade Policy Data and Need for Trade Policy Data and AnalysisAnalysis

Accession to the WTOAccession to the WTO

Preparing schedules of commitmentsPreparing schedules of commitments

Assessing impacts of accession on the economyAssessing impacts of accession on the economy - impact on agriculture, trade, food security and welfare- impact on agriculture, trade, food security and welfare

Analyzing alternative policy scenarios to cope with Analyzing alternative policy scenarios to cope with WTO requirements both in the short and long WTO requirements both in the short and long terms:terms:

– Maintaining the necessary domestic policy flexibilityMaintaining the necessary domestic policy flexibility

– Safeguarding the economy from world market hazards and Safeguarding the economy from world market hazards and unfair trade practicesunfair trade practices