HISTORY OF THE NOMINATING PROCESS

The Constitution only mentions the Electoral College –no parties or nominationsParty leaders or Congressional caucuses chose nominees and convention delegates until the 20th Century

HISTORY OF THE NOMINATING PROCESS

Direct primaries were one of the Progressive reforms of the early 20th Century Evolution of primaries in Wayne, Ch. 1

Didn’t become the decisive mechanism for choosing the nominee until 1972

HISTORY OF THE NOMINATING PROCESS

1968 President Lyndon B. Johnson runs for re-

election at the height of the unpopularity of the Vietnam War

Challenged by antiwar Sen. Eugene McCarthy (Minnesota)

Johnson narrowly wins NH primary Robert Kennedy enters after NH Johnson drops out

HISTORY OF THE NOMINATING PROCESS

1968 VP Hubert Humphrey enters the race as a

replacement for LBJ after the filing deadlines have passed, so he doesn’t have to compete in primaries

RFK assassinated after winning CA primary Humphrey nominated by party leaders at

convention in Chicago without having run in primaries

There were riots in the streets and Humphrey lost to Nixon in the general election

HISTORY OF THE NOMINATING PROCESS

The Democratic Party then named a commission chaired by Sen. George McGovern (South Dakota) to recommend reforms to the process

Emphasized participation of rank-and-file party members and diversity of groups

Gender balance, affirmative action on the basis of race and age

Almost all delegates must be chosen by voters in primaries or caucuses

HISTORY OF THE NOMINATING PROCESS

Also affected Republican nominations because most state laws apply to both parties

The first person to win the nomination under rules proposed by the commission chaired by George McGovern was…

George McGovern. In the 1980’s, after several general

election defeats (McGovern, Carter, Mondale), the Democratic Party re-emphasized the role of party leaders in choosing the nominee.

NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IOWA

Why do they get to go first? They established the tradition New Hampshire started holding its

primary in March in 1916 Not the first nominating event until

several states that were earlier in the calendar changed theirs

Until 1948, it was used to choose delegates but not to express a presidential preference; most delegates were uncommitted

NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IOWA

In 1952, NH adopted a presidential preference on the primary ballot

“Beauty contest” primary – separate vote for president and for delegates, so that expressing a choice for president doesn’t automatically elect delegates who support that candidate May still be used by state parties in Republican

primaries, but not Democratic The Republican Party gives the states more flexibility

in designing their nominating mechanisms and how the delegates are chosen

The Democratic Party tends to use a one-size-fits-all national model

NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IOWA

NH state law now requires that the primary be one week earlier than any other state’s primary

From the beginning of the presidential preference primary in 1952 until 1988, no one got elected president who had not won his party’s New Hampshire primary

Bill Clinton broke this streak in 1992 Four times the winner of the NH primary did not win

the D nomination Muskie 1972, Hart 1984, Tsongas 1992, H. Clinton 2008

Three times the winner of the NH primary did not win the R nomination Lodge 1964, Buchanan 1996, McCain 2000

NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IOWA

Iowa has always used a caucus/convention system to choose delegates Five-step process of attending meetings and getting

elected at progressively larger gatherings D’s moved to January in order to complete the

process in time It got some attention in 1972 Both D and R caucuses were on the same day in

1976 Jimmy Carter came in second behind “uncommitted”

but got favorable publicity which helped him win NH Not as accurate a predictor of the eventual nominee

as New Hampshire

NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IOWA

Iowa caucus winners who did not win the D nomination: Edmund Muskie 1972 Dick Gephardt 1988 Tom Harkin 1992 (Sen. from Iowa)

Iowa caucus winners who did not win the R nomination: G.H.W. Bush 1980 Bob Dole 1988 Mike Huckabee 2008 Rick Santorum 2012 (virtual tie with Mitt Romney)

NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IOWA

There have been controversies about other states trying to move their primaries up

The national parties have supported NH and Iowa remaining first

Most reform efforts either support regional primaries or a rotating schedule so that no one always goes first

Lack of diversity in NH and IA populations led to SC and NV being moved up on the calendar

CLASS POLL 1/11/16PREFERRED CANDIDATE

REPUBLICANS Bush 2 Carson 1 Cruz 4 Fiorina 2 Huckabee 1 Paul 3 Rubio 2 DEMOCRATS Clinton 8 O’Malley 3 *Sanders 25* UNDECIDED 8

CLASS POLL 1/11/16HELL WOULD FREEZE OVER…

“Any Republican” 2 Bush 1 Clinton 4 Clinton or Obama 1 Clinton or Sanders 1 Cruz 1 Cruz or Huckabee 1 Paul 1 Sanders 1 *Trump 40* Trump or Clinton 2 Trump or Cruz 2 Trump or O’Malley 1

Correlations Most of the strongly anti-Trump voters are

Democrats, but some are supporting other Republican candidates

Clinton has more anti-votes than any candidate besides Trump