The consequences of climate change for EU …...2017/04/12 · The consequences of climate change...

The consequences of climate

change for EU agriculture

Follow up to the COP21-UN Paris Climate Change

Conference

Kaley Hart & Ben AllenInstitute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP)

11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 1

Structure of the Presentation

1. Interactions between agriculture and

climate

2. EU climate action and agriculture

3. The climate role of the CAP

4. Perspectives on the future


1. Interactions between

agriculture & climate

Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 311/04/2017

Agriculture affected by the climate


Pressures on farming systems

Temperature variations Water availability Water quality Pests and disease Fire risk Storm damage

Agriculture’s impact on the climate


Affects climate change:

Emissions of GHGs –directly and indirectly

Removal of GHGs from the atmosphere – carbon sequestration

Contributions to reductions in other sectors (e.g. renewable energy)


Agricultural GHG emissions (CO2/non-CO

2)

42.9%

Enteric

fermentation

15.4%

Manure

38.0%

Soils

GHG emissions from agriculture

including agricultural soils (cropland

and grassland), by Member State,

2014


Agriculture’s contribution to GHG

emissions (CO2

& non CO2)


Significant variation by country

Agriculture’s contribution will become more significant over time

FR, DE, UK make up ~44% of all agricultural emissions

29.3%

Energy supply

19.2%

Transport19.0%

Industry

11.5%

Residential &

commercial

11.3%

Agriculture

Others

Agriculture’s contribution to GHG

emissions (CO2

& non CO2)


Agriculture’s contribution will become more significant over time

FR, DE, UK make up ~44% of all agricultural emissions

2. EU Climate action &

agriculture


EU Climate Action & Agriculture (2020)


Global framework: The Kyoto Protocol

EU framework: 2020 climate & energy framework

EU Actions

Accounting and Reporting:• Effort Sharing Decision (ESD)

• Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF)

• Emissions Trading System (ETS)

Emission reduction, removals & adaptation:• Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)

• Renewable Energy Directive (RED)

• Water Framework Directive (WFD)

• National Emissions Ceiling Directive (NECD)

• etc.

EU Climate Action & Agriculture (2030)


Global framework: The Paris Agreement

EU framework: 2030 climate & energy framework

EU Actions

Accounting and Reporting:• Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR)

• Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF)

• Emissions Trading System (ETS)

Emission reduction, removals & adaptation:• Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)

• Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II)

• Water Framework Directive (WFD)

• National Emissions Ceiling Directive (NECD)

• etc.

The Paris Agreement & EU framework


Mitigation:

Targets for emission reductions 40% by 2030 (Global and EU ambition) 80% by 2050 (EU Low carbon transition)

Adaptation:

Submit and update adaptation communications implementation and support needs; Priorities; plans and actions.

EU Accounting and reporting


Mechanism 2020 2030

ESD:

Non-CO2 emissions from agriculture Explicitly excludes emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF

Cross sector

target

Cross sector targets

increased

LULUCF:

CO2 emissions from cropland and grazing land management.

Excluded from

CC&E

frameworkBut LULUCF

Decision requires

some action

Included within

CC&E

No-debit rule

EU-ETS:

N2O emissions from fertiliser manufacturingLarge bioenergy facilitiesZero carbon rating of biomass



Share (%) of agriculture (non CO2) in ESD emissions

in 2015



GHG reduction targets for 2020 set out in the ESD and for 2030 in the

proposed ESR


Mitigation actions

• Reduced tillage• Zero tillage• Leaving crop residues on the soil surface• Ceasing to burn crop residues and vegetation• Use cover/catch crops• Livestock disease management• Use of sexed semen for breeding dairy replacements• Breeding lower methane emissions in ruminants• Feed additives for ruminant diets• Optimised feeding strategies for livestock• Soil and nutrient management plans• Use of nitrification inhibitors• Improved nitrogen efficiency• Biological N fixation in rotations and in grass mixes• Carbon auditing tools• Improved on-farm energy efficiency

• Conversion of arable land to grassland to sequester carbon in the soil

• New agroforestry

• Wetland/Peatland conservation/restoration

• Woodland planting

Mitigation actions in agriculture

3. The climate role of the

Common Agricultural Policy


Climate and the CAP

CAP has considerable potential to advance climate action on agricultural (and forest) land

Climate objectives have become more prominent in the CAP over time


2014-2020

Climate Action in practice via the CAP

Main CAP measures with climate potential:

Cross-compliance GAEC standards Farm Advisory System Pillar 1 green direct payments Pillar 2 rural development measures (land management,

investments, advice and capacity building)

Achieving climate benefits in practice depends

on:

the choices made by Member States in programming the CAP for 2014-20; and

the choices made by farmers within the options available to them.


Variable implementation

Minimalist approach in many MSs Climate not a compulsory element of the Farm Advisory

System RDP budgetary allocations for climate are lower than for

other objectives Targets for climate indicators non existent in some RDPs

or very low ambition.

11/04/2017 21

Overall Expenditure

for RDPs by Strategic

Priority: EU-28

2014-2020

MS RDP

expenditure on

climate

compared to

EU average


RDP targets relevant to climate


4. Future perspectives


Perspectives for the agricultural

sector and CAP

To reach the target agreed under the Paris Agreement may require net zero emissions from all sectors at some point around or after 2050

Greater consideration will need to be given to how the agriculture sector can play an enhanced role

There is a need to reconcile food security with climate change concerns

Despite this, there is still progress that could be made within the sector to enhance carbon sequestration, improve energy efficiency, and reduce GHG emissions relating to land management.

Potential action to reduce EU demand for GHG-intensive agricultural production, through measures to address excess meat and dairy consumption in diets or measures to tackle food waste has not yet been adopted at EU level.


Potential climate actions - agriculture

Land use change

E.g. afforestation, agro-forestry, arable conversion

Crop Production

E.g. Zero/reduced tillage, cover/catch crops, crop residues

Livestock Production

E.g. Disease management, breeding, feed additives etc

Nutrient and Soil Management

E.g. Nitrification inhibitors, improved N fixation etc

Energy

E.g. Carbon audits, energy efficiency, anaerobic digesters


Considerations for the future

Evidence:

Database of evidence on mitigation potentials of different farming practices in different climatic zones and on different soil types

Clear objectives, pathways and targets:

Vision and pathways to achieve objectives required The lack of explicit GHG emission reduction or carbon

sequestration targets for the agriculture sector means there is little incentive to focus attention in this area

Must not forget the consumption dimension

CAP and other relevant policies:

Design of instruments and measures with climate objectives in mind

Encourage improved use and implementation by Member States and greater uptake by farmers


Thank you for your attention

Kaley Hart – [email protected]

Ben Allen – [email protected]


www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu

The consequences of climate change for EU …...2017/04/12 · The consequences of climate change...

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