The Connected Car: Disruptive Innovations and Business … Technology Consultants-Th… · “the...
Transcript of The Connected Car: Disruptive Innovations and Business … Technology Consultants-Th… · “the...
The Connected Car:
Disruptive Innovations and Business Opportunities
for Taiwan
Telematics Taiwan 2014
National Taiwan University Hospital
Taipei: 22 October 2014
Andrew Pickford
Transport Technology Consultants
Hong Kong
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Agenda
• What is a ‘Connected Vehicle’?
• Megatrends that are shaping the connected vehicle industry
• Focus: Vehicle-centric or infrastructure-centric?
• Application areas, market dynamics and opportunities for Taiwan
• Connected vehicle industrial policies: recommendations for Taiwan
• Transport Futures: to 2050
• Summary
‘Connected Vehicle’: definition
“the collective name for vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-
infrastructure (V2I) communications”
or
“the presence of devices in an automobile that connect the devices to other
devices within the car/vehicles and or devices, networks and services outside
the car.”
My own definition is:
“a sensor-equipped vehicle that is able to cooperatively exchange data with
other vehicles, fixed and mobile devices, for the purpose of improving driver
awareness, road safety, mobility and network operating efficiency”.
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‘Connected Vehicle’: example
• Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V): exchange data on road conditions such as an
icy road.
• Vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I): infrastructure transmits data to a
vehicle such as traffic light timing data and speed limits from roadside
signs.
• Vehicle-based ‘mesh networks’: a group / swarm of vehicles that share
speed information to enable average link speed to be measured
• V2X: other stakeholders include drivers, pedestrians, cyclists, traffic
managers and emergency / incident management personnel
Concept: vehicles, infrastructure and drivers form a information system
that improves safety, mobility and highway operational efficiency to
deliver greater benefits than any one of these acting alone.
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Megatrends: 1 to 3
1. structural changes within automotive industry:
consolidation, new players (US, SE Asia, India, etc.)
continues to drive differentiation; the vehicle is increasingly
seen as a platform for delivering customised services (e.g.
OnStar);
2. increasing use of sensors: enables a shift from a focus on
passive safety i.e. protection (e.g. airbags) to active safety
i.e. crash avoidance (e.g. camera-based autonomous lane
following, radar-based speed adaption, etc.);
3. growing environmental concerns: legislation to reduce
average emissions, incentivise the use of new fuels, and
shift from taxation on ownership and fuel to usage instead;
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Megatrends: 4 to 6
4. increasing urban congestion: road infrastructure needs to
be used more efficiently, the reason for congestion charging
5. competition between mobile phone vendors: driving
innovations in driver interfaces (e.g. Apple’s CarPlay and
Google’s AndroidAuto); and.
6. innovations in standards-based wireless communications:
(e.g. WAVE, CALM) that treat the vehicle as a
communications and computing platform
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Vehicle-centric
• Vehicle manufacturers should be very good at vehicle-centric
innovation since they have a monopoly on vehicle-based
systems;
• Established players: BMW, Fiat, Ford, GM, Jaguar Cars,
Renault, Scania, Siemens, Toyota, Volkswagen and Volvo, etc.
• Newcomers are not only from within the automotive
industry: Apple, Audi, Cisco, Facebook, Google, Hyundai,
Skoda, Sony;
• Demonstrates increasing opportunities for vehicle-centric
competence - and more opportunities for Taiwan’s
established telematics industry.
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Vehicle-centric or infrastructure-centric?
Infrastructure-centric
Vehicle-centric
• Electronic toll collection (ETC) • Vehicle tracking / security geofencing • Traffic Control and surveillance (e.g.
JTMS and SMPS in Hong Kong) • Road flow measurement (e.g.
Bluetooth MAC address trackers)
• Advanced Driver Assistant Systems (ADAS):
o Lane following o Cooperative cruise control o Vehicle platooning o Augmented reality for
improved pedestrian / animal detection
• In-vehicle navigation • Inertial Navigation to augment GNSS
User-centric User-centric
• Pre-trip Travel planning (e.g. Hong Kong’s eTransport)
• Mobile phone as a Human Machine Interface and as a host for apps:
o Dynamic navigation (e.g. Google),
o Traffic alerts (e.g. Twitter) o Social Networks (e.g. Waze) o Other crowd-sourced services
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Infrastructure-centric: Electronic Toll Collection
Increasing
complexity and
barriers to entry
Plaza-based ETC
Multi-lane free flow ETC
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Infrastructure-centric: EV charging points
Either a local
combination of
electronic payment with
a wall charger (Hong
Kong) or mobile phone
interface (US)
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User-centric: e-hailing, trip planning and navigation
Increasing complexity and barriers to entry
Taxi e-hailing Multi-modal pre-trip planning Navigation / sensing
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Vehicle-centric: Electronic Toll Collection / Electronic
Road Pricing
Increasing
complexity and
barriers to entry
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© Transport Technology Consultants Ltd.
© Transport Technology Consultants Ltd.
Connected vehicles requires a connected value chain
- and a multi-disciplinary viewpoint
• There are a few examples of successful end-to-end systems:
o 1990: Vehicle Information and Communication System
(VICS), Japan
o 2004: Scania – the vehicle is a transportation service
o 2006: Universal On Board Unit (UOBU), DG TREN,
European Commission
o 2013: ecall / e112 in Europe (2013)
o 2013: Cooperative Vehicle Infrastructure System trial,
Transport for London, UK
o 2014: ERP2 ambitions, Singapore
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Example 1: Universal On Board Unit (UOBU), DGXIII,
European Commission
DG TREN: aim of the
UOBU project is “.. to
investigate and define
the functionality,
constraints, and
systems architecture,
and to assess the
benefits of a
telematics platform
integrated within the
vehicle or as a single
core vehicle unit…”
providing time,
communication,
identification and
location to requesting
services
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Example 2: CVIS: Booking System for a Freight Loading
Bay, Transport for London, UK
• Trial participants: Transport for London, Volvo, Thetis,
PTV, Logica, EFKON and Imperial College
• The Active8 System allows the vehicle operator to book
a kerb space on-line for loading and unloading at a
particular time.
• This prebooked space becomes a ‘virtual parking bay’ to
allow drivers to load and unload close to their desired
location without causing congestion
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Example 2: CVIS: Booking System for a Freight Loading
Bay, Transport for London, UK
1. Reservation
downloaded via 3G
2. GPS provides
location details
3. ETA is
displayed on
touch screen
in cab
4. Vehicle
detected in
loading /
unloading
bay by IR
camera5. Vehicle
OBU
detected
6. Roadside
system alerts
central database
that vehicle has
arrived
7. If valid, the booking
details are sent back to
the RSU
8. Loading / unloading data sent to
vehicle via IR link
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Example 3: ERP2, Singapore
• Three prequalified consortia invited to tender to provide
an end-to-end Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) based on
Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS); charging for
road use by Time, Distance and Position (TDP)
• Tenders close 1Q2015, contract award 2H2015
• Potentially, the ERP2 system
will deliver a range of Value
Added Services (VAS) to road
users, and provide spatial
information on traffic flow to
permit improved intermodal
load balancing through
improved differential
charging25
© Transport Technology Consultants Ltd.
Application areas: Taiwan
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Turnkey Solution
In-Vehicular
Infotainment
System for
Public Transit
Mul -Card
e-Ticking
Integrated OBU/E-Payment
System/Mul -Media for
Passengers/Total Solu on
Planning/Satellite Dispatching
System……
Integrated OBU/Arrival
Display System/Mul -Card E-
cking Module/Intelligent
Bus Stop Sign/Digital/Travel
Recorder Module……
Vehicular Integra on/
Commercial Vehicle Integrated
OBU/Driver Assistance/Cloud
App/Total Solu on……
Fleet
Management
Smart Taxi
Dispatching System
eBus
Integrated OBU/Video
Applica on System/OS&APPs/
Satellite Posi oning Module/
Mul -Media Display……
Classifica on Module/RFID/IR
& Transceiver/Enforcement
Module/Enforcement
Module/System Integra on
Planning……
Electronic Toll
Collec on System
Integrated OBU/Digital TV/
Dynamic Naviga on/Digital
Video Recorder/Head-Up
Display/Safety Detec on
Warning System……
In-Vehicle
Infotainment
for Passenger
Vehicles
Smart Card/Vending/Balance Check
Kiosk/Mul -Card Reader/Gate/Central
Management System/Backed System for
Clearing/Se lement and Fee Distribu on
Application areas - 2
Application area
Principles of competition Opportunities
IVI for passenger vehicles
• compliance with standards, • current: academic / SME
relationships • future: relationships with
automotive OEMs
• V2X initiatives in US, Europe and PR China,
• development of the Universal OBU for retrofit and automotive OEMs
• e911 in Europe and ERP2 Singapore
Electronic Toll Collection (ETC)
• compliance with standards • regional cost-focused
competition (system integrators) and infrastructure developers
• policy trends towards Time, Distance and Place (TDP)-based charging, enabled by new GNSS (e.g. Galileo and BeiDou2)
• Australia, Singapore, Eastern Europe, US (various)
• Early stage TDP application pilots in US and Europe
IVI for public transport
• global distribution through knowledgeable local partners
• various in Middle East • EC-funded pilots
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Challenges
1. Need to differentiate between ‘cooperative’ and ‘non-cooperative’:
o Development challenges in a non-cooperative environment are more
significant than in the cooperative environment:
- Cooperative interaction: Connected vehicles depend on deterministic
communication with the infrastructure and with other vehicles
- Non-cooperative interactions: Context awareness means sensitivity to
other adhoc assets such as pedestrians and legacy vehicles.
o Autonomous vehicles provide a clear functional target to developers of
vehicles that can participate in non-cooperative environments.
2. Dealing with legacy vehicles: will dedicated infrastructure be needed in some
cases such as high speed lanes?
3. Data protection and increasing demands from users to control privacy: “who
owns the data?”
4. Applying computing when it adds value: computers are still not better than
humans for driving tasks; from ADAS to autonomous vehicles will take time
5. Liabilities: who’s fault is it? The driver or the software engineer?
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Enablers
1. Local enablers:
• Enabling regulatory environment (e.g. laws in some US states) –
already a disruptive impact (e.g. most likely motivated by safety
mandates)
• Application incubators, test tracks (e.g. fully-equipped test
facilities), public competitions and innovation funds supporting
academic and private sector (e.g. Australia V2X test bed,
Singapore’s Jurong Lake District, DARPA, etc.)
• Early stage public sector investment and support: business
support, market intelligence, R&D tax incentives, etc.
2. International enablers:
• Standards (i.e. IEEE 1609, IEEE 802.11p, SAE J2735, etc.) and
certification (e.g. OmniAir and IEEE test methods) and a reference
architecture
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Real-world test environment: USA
USA: Connected Vehicle Test Bed
in Oakland County, Michigan
(South East Michigan Test Bed):
“… a development and test
facility for the Proof of Concept
engineering project conducted by
the USDOT and the auto industry
to determine the feasibility and
technical limitations of Dedicated
Short range Communication
(DSRC) operating in the 5.9GHz
bandwidth….. To support the
connected vehicle industry’s
evolving needs for a testing and
development environment”
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Real-world test environment: USA
Town Built for Driverless Cars
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Real-world test environment: UK
E&T Magazine,
17 Dec 2011
InnovITS – ADVANCE:
“…4km of roads in an
urban layout with signals
and CCTV plus private
communications
networks (GSM, 3G, WiFi)
and GNSS denial
systems … designed for
testing and developing
ITS applications that
include CVIS, Active
Safety, emergency
response (eCall), eco-
driving and traffic
management.”
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Meetings and fora: China
Shanghai Connected Vehicle & ITS
Expo and Forum 2014, 28-29
October, Shanghai, PR China
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Meetings and fora: Europe
The 3rd International
Conference on Connected
Vehicles and Expo, 3-7
November, Vienna, Austria
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Market opportunities - examples
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• Universal On-Board Units and on-board computing platforms for
all vehicle types;
• In-vehicle Human Machine Interface (HMI) (e.g. HUD and the
mobile phone);
• in-vehicle sensors, including forward-looking cameras, 360° threat
detection, sensor data fusion;
• data analytics, cloud-based in-vehicle services;
• end-to-end data security and Over-The-Air data / application
transfer mechanisms;
• multi-mode / hybrid GNSS cores, navigation augmentation
modules;
• roadside 5.9GHz communication hubs, localisation mechanisms;
• test equipment
1. Identify and audit Taiwan’s relevant strengths (e.g. IP asset
‘audit’) and use as platform for market entry into connected
vehicle markets; empower academic institutions;
2. Support infant industry development (i.e. Taiwan already
has a globally competitive ICT and telematics industry) and
engage local authorities and automotive test facilities;
3. Investment in the ‘I’ (infrastructure) will require a
commitment from the public sector in Taiwan - if not, then
this could severely impact V2I innovation
Industrial policy recommendations: 1 to 3
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4. Define target application areas and encourage innovation in
each area by a variety of factors (e.g. innovation funds,
‘catapults’ / ‘accelerators’, competitions and public-funded
trials hosted by selected Taiwan local authorities to enable
private sector to explore business case);
5. Raise level of participation in development of standards for
V2X communications and reference architectures (e.g.
within ISO, CEN and the newly-formed IEEE SCC42);
6. Adopt a ‘systems view’ for existing product markets, to
develop V2X-related products and service delivery,
collaborative working within industry;
Industrial policy recommendations: 4 to 6
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7. Define an enabling regulatory environment in Taiwan
(including protected radio spectrum at 5.9GHz for V2X and
79GHz for UWB radar to encourage innovation in selected
connected vehicle market segments; and
8. For products and services that depend on economies of
scale (i.e. most) then innovate rapidly in domestic market
for solutions that are most likely to be internationally
competitive
9. Launch a ‘connected vehicle’ forum that defines the sector
in Taiwan, liaises with other regional groups and acts as a
focal point for connected vehicle interests in Taiwan.
Industrial policy recommendations: 7 to 9
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Scenarios
“ How might science and technology be applied over the
next 50 years to the design and implementation of
intelligent infrastructure for transport and its altern atives
that are robust, sustainable and safe?”
• The UK-based Foresight team was led by Sir David King, Chief
Scientific Advisor to the UK Government
• Large stakeholder group (c. 600 experts) and project advisory
group of 22 representatives from academia, the police, Department
for Transport (DfT), electronics companies, utilities, etc.
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Scenarios Accepting of
intelligent
infrastructureGood Intentions Perpetual Motion
Tribal Trading Urban Colonies
High impact
transport
Low impact
transport
Resistant to
intelligent
infrastructure
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Summary
• Innovations in connected vehicle market requires a ‘systems
view’ to compete in the global market for modules, systems and
services
• Collaboration across multiple disciplines and industries within
Taiwan and externally is critical to delivering a ‘connected
vehicle’ future; automotive engineering, information technology,
mobile communications, consumer electronics, industrial
electronics, infotainment, energy & utilities and insurance
• Cannot depend on safety legislation to trigger innovation
• Taiwan is well-placed to capitalise on this emerging market but a
‘connected vehicle’ future that could benefit Taiwan will be
equally an organisational as well as a technological challenge.
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