The complexity of governing international rivers:Central Asia’s Aral Sea basinEelke P. Kraak – University of Oxford

Governing Central Asia’s river has become highly complex

• Water and energy are linked by the dams in the rivers. Misunderstanding the nexus causes conflict

• The integrated economic system broke down, which destabilised the political economy of the rivers

• The geopolitical changes since 1991 have created two international rivers that are difficult to govern

Water-energy nexus

Disintegration economic

system

Post-Soviet geopolitics

1

2

3

What can we learn from the Central Asia case study?

Central Asia has two transboundary river basins since ’91Distribution of water resources is highly unequal throughout riparian states

Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 'Water withdrawal and availability in Aral Sea basin', UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005.2/10

Central Asian rivers have a high temporal variabilitySoviet Union tried to make river manageable, building dams, canals, and lakesThe flow of the Syr Darya has

a very high inter-annual variability

Intensive dam construction to tame the river and

maximise water consumption

Source left: cawater-info.net, graph by author. Right: Toktogul dam, source: Ministry of Energy, Kyrgyzstan

Irrigation in Central Asia integral part of Soviet economy

19121918192419301936194219481954196019661972197819841990199620022008

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

3/10

…but over-allocation of water caused the decline of the Aral Sea, one of the world’s largest environmental crisis

Source: NASA Goddard Lab, 2009.4/10

Disintegration of the economic system after independence put increased stress on water-energy system

5/10

Interests of riparian states have diverged significantlyA distinct divergence between upstream and downstream statesUpstream states (Kyrgyzstan,

Tajikistan)

• Origin of 80% of water

• Water for electricity generation

• No natural resources

• Prefer water in river in winter

Downstream states (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan,

Kazakhstan)

• Abstract 82% of water

• Water for irrigation

• Plenty of oil, gas and coal

• Prefer water in river in summer

Map by author. Please note that boundaries are for illustrative purposes only and do not necessarily reflect agreed borders

Conflict around the operation of Toktogul, the largest dam

6/10

The Toktogul is the single largest dam in the Syr Darya The dam and reservoir connect the water and energy sectorsIt is located most upstream and is a crucial valve for the

river system

Largest storage of water and largest production of power

in Kyrgyzstan

Source: left, Bernauer & Siegfried (2009); right, data ICWC, Ministry of Energy Kyrgyzstan, USAID, graph by author.

Reservoir State Capacity (km3)

Toktogul Kyrgyzstan 19.5Kayrakkum Tajikistan 4.0Charvak Uzbekistan 2.0Chakir Uzbekistan 2.4Shardarya Kazakhstan 5.2

Toktogul cascade91%

Other hy-dro-power

3%Thermal

6%

7/10

Water is increasingly discharged in the winter periodKyrgyz energy demands challenge the Soviet-era status quo of the river

Source: cawater-info.net, graph by author.

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

2

4

6

8

10

12

Km3

discharges in 6 months

There is no successful agreement to govern the operation of the Toktogul cascade

Winter water releases

Summer water releases

Minimal water required for Uzbek agriculture

8/10

Toktogul has classic a upstream-downstream conflictBut there is a more fundamental disagreement on what water is

Water as a commodity Water as a gift from god

…but who is going to pay for the water management?

or

‘the downstream states should pay for water like we pay for

oil and gas’

‘water is part of nature and should therefore be free’

9/10

What can we learn from this case study?

Water-energy nexus?

Virtual water trade

Politics of dam operation

No water wars

10/10