The common use of the Nile: The common use of the Nile: survival and implications for survival and implications for regional/continental securityregional/continental security

by

Debay Tadesse Ph.D Institute for Security Studies

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

November 17, 2009

OutlineOutline

• Overview of available water resources in the Nile Basin Overview of available water resources in the Nile Basin regionsregions

• Water and Food securityWater and Food security

• Energy and Water Energy and Water

• Possibility of conflict and cooperationPossibility of conflict and cooperation

• Current water management policies of Egypt, Sudan, Current water management policies of Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.

• Recommendations and the way forward Recommendations and the way forward

Political Map of Africa Political Map of Africa

Physical Map of Africa Physical Map of Africa

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION • United Nations Environmental Programme United Nations Environmental Programme

(UNEP)(UNEP): : increasing numbers of African increasing numbers of African countries face water stress scarcity and countries face water stress scarcity and land degradation. land degradation.

• Africa is not the driest continent in the Africa is not the driest continent in the worldworld. .

• It has a reticulation of over 54 drainage It has a reticulation of over 54 drainage basinsbasins

• The Nile is the longest river in the world The Nile is the longest river in the world (6,825 km) or about (4240 miles) in the (6,825 km) or about (4240 miles) in the world world

• 40 percent of the African population directly 40 percent of the African population directly depend on the Nile River for their livelihood depend on the Nile River for their livelihood

• Recurrent famine since the 1980s. Recurrent famine since the 1980s.

• The hunger in Ethiopia has become so chronic The hunger in Ethiopia has become so chronic

• In 2000, about 13 million Ethiopians have been fed In 2000, about 13 million Ethiopians have been fed with 1.7 million tons of food with 1.7 million tons of food

• Currently over 10 million people are threatened by Currently over 10 million people are threatened by faminefamine

• Reliable access to water Reliable access to water

• Environmental degradation, recurrent drought and Environmental degradation, recurrent drought and famine in Ethiopia is lack of water management.famine in Ethiopia is lack of water management.

The Nile Basin The Nile Basin DisequilibriumDisequilibrium • No comprehensive agreement on the use of the Nile riverNo comprehensive agreement on the use of the Nile river

• The few agreements that exist so far are entered between the The few agreements that exist so far are entered between the two downstream riparian states the Sudan and Egypt two downstream riparian states the Sudan and Egypt

• No cooperation and coordinated development planning among No cooperation and coordinated development planning among the ten riparian states.the ten riparian states.

• The Nile basin has not made any significant contribution to the The Nile basin has not made any significant contribution to the ‘welfare, of its close to 300 million inhabitants who are among ‘welfare, of its close to 300 million inhabitants who are among the most impoverished and who comprise six of the world’s ten the most impoverished and who comprise six of the world’s ten least developed countries.least developed countries.

• Allocations of water resources to meet basic human needs, food Allocations of water resources to meet basic human needs, food security, energy, and economic development; while maintaining security, energy, and economic development; while maintaining the integrity of aquatic ecosystems is needed in this region. the integrity of aquatic ecosystems is needed in this region.

Water and Food SecurityWater and Food Security

• Unpredictable rain fall as a result of climate change, luck Unpredictable rain fall as a result of climate change, luck of water management and drought, failure of crops are of water management and drought, failure of crops are making food security impossible in this region.making food security impossible in this region.

• Water and food security are closely relatedWater and food security are closely related

• Reliable access to water increases agricultural yieldsReliable access to water increases agricultural yields

• Lack of water management can be a major cause of Lack of water management can be a major cause of droughts, famine and undernourishmentdroughts, famine and undernourishment

• The availability of irrigation water enables more crops to The availability of irrigation water enables more crops to be grown per year and increase in year-round farming and be grown per year and increase in year-round farming and employment opportunities. employment opportunities.

• Currently all the Nile riparian states have Currently all the Nile riparian states have drawn ambitious national water drawn ambitious national water development plansdevelopment plans

• These plans are often carried out on These plans are often carried out on unilateral and non-consultative basesunilateral and non-consultative bases

• This creates further competition for fresh This creates further competition for fresh water. water.

• A continued unilateralist approach with A continued unilateralist approach with regards to water development is expected regards to water development is expected

• Beyond dispute such a unilateral approach Beyond dispute such a unilateral approach is conflict laden and incompatible with a is conflict laden and incompatible with a more cooperative approach. more cooperative approach.

Water and EnergyWater and Energy

• For more than 85% of the 300 million people in For more than 85% of the 300 million people in the Nile basin riparian countries, energy is the Nile basin riparian countries, energy is about wood, waste, dung, candles and about wood, waste, dung, candles and kerosene. kerosene.

• Fuel supply in this region is mainly biomass Fuel supply in this region is mainly biomass based (90% of total energy supply). based (90% of total energy supply).

• Utilizing energy efficiently is crucial in order to Utilizing energy efficiently is crucial in order to provide adequate water for agriculture and provide adequate water for agriculture and livestock development and for human livestock development and for human consumption. consumption.

Cooperation and ConflictCooperation and Conflict

• The competition for scarce water resources is intenseThe competition for scarce water resources is intense

• One reason for environmental degradation, recurrent drought and One reason for environmental degradation, recurrent drought and famine in this region is lack of water managementfamine in this region is lack of water management

• An important strategic plan to overcoming the problem of recurrent An important strategic plan to overcoming the problem of recurrent drought and famine is for the riparian states to concentrate on the drought and famine is for the riparian states to concentrate on the efficient utilization of the Nile water.efficient utilization of the Nile water.

• it is essential for the authorities not only to develop water resources it is essential for the authorities not only to develop water resources but also to protect the region’s environment and natural resources but also to protect the region’s environment and natural resources

• Insure the environmental basis of sustainable development in the Insure the environmental basis of sustainable development in the region. region.

EGYPT’S EGYPT’S WATERWATER POLICYPOLICY

• Law of Prior Appropriation Law of Prior Appropriation

• The concept of:The concept of:– Historical Rights Historical Rights – Acquired Rights Acquired Rights – Established RightsEstablished Rights

• The derivatives and extensions of the The derivatives and extensions of the Law of Prior Appropriation Law of Prior Appropriation

SUDAN’SSUDAN’S WATERWATER POLICYPOLICYIn both the 1929 and 1959 Nile Waters In both the 1929 and 1959 Nile Waters agreements, Sudan accepted the concept of agreements, Sudan accepted the concept of acquired rights, acquired rights,

Sudan currently acknowledges that this Sudan currently acknowledges that this concept is not the sole basis for international concept is not the sole basis for international agreement agreement

Sudan’s policy regarding Nile River water Sudan’s policy regarding Nile River water seems to be guided by the dual principles of seems to be guided by the dual principles of acquired and equitable and reasonable use of acquired and equitable and reasonable use of shared water resources. shared water resources.

Sudan’s policy on the issue of water use by Sudan’s policy on the issue of water use by other riparian countries is generally more other riparian countries is generally more cautious and accommodating. cautious and accommodating.

ETHIOPIA’S ETHIOPIA’S WATERWATER POLICYPOLICY

• Unlike Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia does not Unlike Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia does not advocate the principle of acquired rights; advocate the principle of acquired rights;

• Instead, it consistently promotes the concept of Instead, it consistently promotes the concept of equitable entitlement as the best way to settle equitable entitlement as the best way to settle Nile water-allocation issues. Nile water-allocation issues.

• This concept has been the dominant feature of This concept has been the dominant feature of Ethiopia’s policy in the last four decades, even Ethiopia’s policy in the last four decades, even though there were times when it took a more though there were times when it took a more monopolistic approach. monopolistic approach.

Uganda Tanzania Uganda Tanzania KenyaKenya• The East African Nile Basin countries of Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania The East African Nile Basin countries of Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania

were unable to exploit the Nile waters for consumptive uses were unable to exploit the Nile waters for consumptive uses during the colonial era.during the colonial era.

• The treaties which were concluded on their behalf by the The treaties which were concluded on their behalf by the colonial power in 1929 including the 1959 agreement between colonial power in 1929 including the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan had their hands tied Egypt and Sudan had their hands tied

• Until late 1950s and early 1960s, all of the three upper White Until late 1950s and early 1960s, all of the three upper White Nile River riparian countries were under BritishNile River riparian countries were under British

• After the East African states gained their independence, almost After the East African states gained their independence, almost all of them repudiated treaties concluded on their behalf by the all of them repudiated treaties concluded on their behalf by the colonial powers colonial powers

• Despite such statements, Uganda still abides by some of the Despite such statements, Uganda still abides by some of the colonial era agreements, such as the Owen Falls Agreement, colonial era agreements, such as the Owen Falls Agreement,

• In 2004, Tanzania unilaterally In 2004, Tanzania unilaterally announced the establishment of a 170 announced the establishment of a 170 kilometer water pipeline from Lake kilometer water pipeline from Lake Victoria Victoria

• Only months earlier, the Kenyan Only months earlier, the Kenyan government, another riparian country on government, another riparian country on the Nile basin, asserted that it “will not the Nile basin, asserted that it “will not accept any restrictions on the use of accept any restrictions on the use of Lake Victoria and River Nile,” and Lake Victoria and River Nile,” and announced that it would unilaterally announced that it would unilaterally withdraw from the 1929 treaty. withdraw from the 1929 treaty.

NO COMPREHENSIVE NO COMPREHENSIVE AGREEMENTAGREEMENT

• There is no comprehensive There is no comprehensive agreement on the use of the Nile river agreement on the use of the Nile river

• The need for long-term The need for long-term environmentally and socially environmentally and socially sustainable developmentsustainable development

• Cooperation among these countries is Cooperation among these countries is badly needed. badly needed.

• There is plenty of water in the region There is plenty of water in the region

• Tension among the Nile basin countriesTension among the Nile basin countries

• The water needs of the upper Nile basin The water needs of the upper Nile basin riparian countries are barely being metriparian countries are barely being met

• The only viable alternative is cooperation, a The only viable alternative is cooperation, a non-zero sum game, where the result is a non-zero sum game, where the result is a win-win solutionwin-win solution

Latest developmentLatest development

• On 22 of May 2009 Ministers of Water from the Nile Basin On 22 of May 2009 Ministers of Water from the Nile Basin Initiative Member states met in Kinshasa, DRC.Initiative Member states met in Kinshasa, DRC.

• The purpose of the meeting is to forge a way forward in The purpose of the meeting is to forge a way forward in finalizing the outstanding issues (Article 14b, Water Security) finalizing the outstanding issues (Article 14b, Water Security) of the draft Cooperative Framework Agreement of the Nile of the draft Cooperative Framework Agreement of the Nile Basin Initiative.Basin Initiative.

• The package proposed in Kinshasa, has 39 articles and 66 sub-The package proposed in Kinshasa, has 39 articles and 66 sub-articles.articles.

• Following this meeting, the 17th annual meeting of the Nile Following this meeting, the 17th annual meeting of the Nile Council of Ministers of in charge of water affairs was held from Council of Ministers of in charge of water affairs was held from 27-28 July 2009 in Alexandria, Egypt. 27-28 July 2009 in Alexandria, Egypt.

• At the two days meeting in Cairo despite further discussion on At the two days meeting in Cairo despite further discussion on the article 14B, no compromise could be reached.the article 14B, no compromise could be reached.

• Sudan and Egypt pushed for a six month extension. Sudan and Egypt pushed for a six month extension.

THE NEED FOR THE NEED FOR COOPERATIONCOOPERATION

• Ethiopia can stop siltingEthiopia can stop silting

• Boost upstream water shortage Boost upstream water shortage

• Reduce annual Nile FloodsReduce annual Nile Floods

• Decreasing the evaporation would increase the Decreasing the evaporation would increase the total volume of available watertotal volume of available water

• According to J.A. Allan, the Ethiopian storage According to J.A. Allan, the Ethiopian storage facilities could increase water availability for facilities could increase water availability for Egypt as much as 15 billion cubic meter per yearEgypt as much as 15 billion cubic meter per year

RECOMMENDATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

• Both the 1929 and the 1959 agreements were only bilateral Both the 1929 and the 1959 agreements were only bilateral

• Discuss the issue of the Nile with a desire of finding a win-win Discuss the issue of the Nile with a desire of finding a win-win solutionsolution

• Food security, safe drinking water, sanitation, and Food security, safe drinking water, sanitation, and environmental sustainability will depend on the efficient environmental sustainability will depend on the efficient management of the Nile Water management of the Nile Water

• Human resources and capacity building are neededHuman resources and capacity building are needed

• The potential for acute inter-state conflict over the Nile water The potential for acute inter-state conflict over the Nile water arises primarily because there is no comprehensive agreement arises primarily because there is no comprehensive agreement

• A strong riparian cooperation and coordination, through A strong riparian cooperation and coordination, through transbounday activities is also neededtransbounday activities is also needed

• Given the degree of mistrust characterizing the Nile Given the degree of mistrust characterizing the Nile riparian countries, securing the participation of all these riparian countries, securing the participation of all these countries in a project dealing with the development of the countries in a project dealing with the development of the Nile waters should be considered a significant move in the Nile waters should be considered a significant move in the direction of cooperation.direction of cooperation.

• The third parties may be able to play a very marginal role The third parties may be able to play a very marginal role in the Nile basin’s hydropolitics in the Nile basin’s hydropolitics

• Any meaningful achievement in this respect would come, Any meaningful achievement in this respect would come, first and foremost, from within-through good political will first and foremost, from within-through good political will and combined efforts of the riparian states themselves. and combined efforts of the riparian states themselves.

• To ensure sustainable development, the upper riparian To ensure sustainable development, the upper riparian states needs to appropriately utilize and simultaneously states needs to appropriately utilize and simultaneously conserve their natural resources.conserve their natural resources.

• The need to shift away from reliance on emergency food The need to shift away from reliance on emergency food aid to long-term environmentally and socially sustainable aid to long-term environmentally and socially sustainable development, including irrigation and watershed development, including irrigation and watershed management, is imperative. management, is imperative.

• The attainment of food security, The attainment of food security, safe drinking water, sanitation, safe drinking water, sanitation, and environmental sustainability and environmental sustainability will depend on the efficient will depend on the efficient management of the Nile water and management of the Nile water and meaningful economic co-operation meaningful economic co-operation among the Nile basin countries. among the Nile basin countries.

• In this regard, the ways in which In this regard, the ways in which constrains of access to water and constrains of access to water and energy services by the rural poor energy services by the rural poor should be addressed. should be addressed.

Water is Water is life life