The Commodities Boom in North Asia Dr Helen B Bendall University of Technology, Sydney ICHCA 2008.
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The Commodities Boom in North Asia Dr Helen B Bendall University of Technology, Sydney ICHCA 2008
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Transcript of The Commodities Boom in North Asia Dr Helen B Bendall University of Technology, Sydney ICHCA 2008.
The Commodities Boom in North Asia
Dr Helen B Bendall
University of Technology, Sydney
ICHCA 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 2
World GDP Growth & World Exports
Dr Helen B Bendall 3
World ExportsVolumes & Values (USD)
Dr Helen B Bendall 4
Asia’s Role in World Trade
% Growth in Volume
2004 2005 2006
World X
M
8.0
-
6.0
-
8.0
-
Asia X
M
15.5
14.5
11.5
8.0
13.5
8.5
China X
M
24.0
21.5
25.0
11.5
22.0
15.6Source: UNCTAD 2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 5
International Seaborne Trade Mt
Year Tanker Dry Cargo
* Main Bulks
Total (All Cargoes)
1970 1442 1124 448 2566
1980 1871 1833 796 3704
1990 1755 2253 968 4008
2000 2163 3821 1288 5983
2006 2674 4742 1828 7416Source: UNCTAD 2007
* Main Bulks subset of Dry Cargo – iron ore, grain, coal, bauxite, alumina, phosphate
Dr Helen B Bendall 6
Major Coal Exporters 2006 Thermal, Metallurgical
33%
22%9%
8%
8%
7%
6%7% Australia
Indonesia
S.Africa
China
Columbia
Russian Federation
Canada, USA
Other
% World Share
Source: UNCTAD 2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 7
Thermal Coal Imports Mt
Imports 2006 2007 2008% Change
2005-6
China 33.6 37 40.1 8.4
Taiwan 58.7 61 63 3.3
Japan 113.5 114.5 114.7 0.2
South Korea 58.9 63 67.4 7
Europe 207 205.7 207.1 0.7
Other 147.4 155.5 174.1
World Total 618.2 636.7 656.3 3.1Source: ABARE,2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 8
Thermal Coal Trade China
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Exports
Imports
Source: ABARE 2007
Mt
Dr Helen B Bendall 9
Thermal Coal Exports Mt
Exports 2006 2007 2008% Change
2005-6
Australia 111.6 115.5 124 7.4
China 58.9 45.0 41 -8.9
Indonesia 161 178 188 5.6
Russia 74 77 79 2.6
South Africa
67.4 67.5 68 0.7
Other 145.3 153.7 156.3Source: ABARE,2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 10
Metallurgical Coal Exports Mt
2005 2006 2007 2008
Australia 124.9 124.4 135.9 141.0
Canada 26.2 22.4 22.4 22.7
USA 26.0 24.9 24.4 24.3
Russian Federation
12.1 16.7 17.5 16.3
World Tot. 205.8 207.6 218.7 226.6
Source; ABARE,2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 11
World Steel Producers 2006 Rank % World Share
China 1 33.4
Japan 2 9.3
USA 3 7.9
Russia 4 5.7
South Korea 5 3.9
Germany 6 3.8
India 7 3.5
Taiwan 12 1.6
Source: MariTrade from IISI 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 12
Metallurgical Coal Imports Mt2005 2006 2007 2008
E U 27 51.4 53.5 58.2 59.7
Japan 63.4 62.8 63.4 64.0
China 7.2 4.7 4.8 10.1
South Korea 20.6 20.7 21.8 21.4
Taiwan 5.2 5.0 4.1 4.9
India 19.6 19.3 20.4 23.0
Brazil 14.7 14.0 14.7 15.5
World Tot. 205.8 207.6 218.7 226.6Source: ABARE 2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 13
Australia’s Exports to North Asia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Se
p-9
6
Se
p-9
7
Se
p-9
8
Se
p-9
9
Se
p-0
0
Se
p-0
1
Se
p-0
2
Se
p-0
3
Se
p-0
4
Se
p-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Se
p-0
7
Mil
lio
ns
China
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
Coal by Volume (Mt)
Source: MariTrade / ABS 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 14
Australian Coal Exports 2005-6Value AUD’000
2005 2006 % Change 2005-6
Japan 9,013,301 9,594,910 6.5
South Korea 2,532,599 1,934,467 -23.6
Taiwan 1,657,611 1,652,025 -0.3
Source: DFAT 2006
Dr Helen B Bendall 15
World Iron Ore Exporters
% World Share
Source: UNCTAD 2007
Australia 37.7%
Brazil 34.2%
India 13.8%
South Africa 3.9%
Canada 3.1%
Sweden 2.6%
Mauritius 1.7%
Peru 0.9%
Australia
Brazil
Dr Helen B Bendall 16
Iron Ore Exports Mt
2005 2006* 2007 2008
Australia 239 270 281 307
Brazil 223 245 269 310
India 81 99 97 99
Canada 28 28 26 27
S Africa 27 26 30 33
Sweden 18 19 20 22Source: ABARE 2007, *UNCTAD 2007,
Dr Helen B Bendall 17
Iron ore Imports Mt2005 2006 2007 2008
E U 27 160 172 175 182
Japan 132 134 139 141
China 275 326 375* 442
South Korea 43 44 44 46
Taiwan 15 15 16 16Source: ABARE 2007,*The Economist 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 18
Australia’s Exports to North Asia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Se
p-9
6
Se
p-9
7
Se
p-9
8
Se
p-9
9
Se
p-0
0
Se
p-0
1
Se
p-0
2
Se
p-0
3
Se
p-0
4
Se
p-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Se
p-0
7
Mil
lio
ns
China
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
Iron Ore by Volume (Tonnes)
Source: MariTrade 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 19
Bauxite Exporters
Africa 40%
The Americas 34.8%
Australia 12.4%
Asia 11.1%
Source: UNCTAD 2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 20
Bauxite - Alumina Exports Australia-North Asia in AUDm
2004 2005 2006 % growth 2005-6
China 1501 1894 2,234 18%
Japan 30 36 47 31.6%
DFAT 2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 21
Australian Aluminium ExportsAUD m
Source ABARE 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 22
Alumina Importers/Exporters
Europe 47.5%
North America
41.7%
Asia/Other 10.8%
Australia 43.8%
The Americas
25.7%
Other 30.5%
Importers
Exporters
Dr Helen B Bendall 23
Aluminium Output 2000 - 2007
YOY, M’ tonnes annualised
Source: Lehman Brothers 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 24
Copper Demand 2005 - 2007
YOY, ‘000 Tonnes
Source: Lehman Brothers 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 25
Australia’s Exports to North Asia
0
20
40
60
80
100
1201
99
7
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Mil
lio
ns
China
Hong Kong
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
Copper by Volume (Mt)
Source: MariTrade / ABS 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 26
Stainless Steel Production and Nickel Cash 2000 - 2007
Source: Lehman Brothers,2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 27
Nickel/Nickel Alloys Exports Australia - North Asia in AUDm
2004 2005 2006 % growth 2005-6
China 290 751 1,378 83.4%
Japan 538 232 415 78.8%
South Korea 381 404 296 -26.8%
Taiwan 249 295 269 -8.7%
Source: DFAT 2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 28
Australian Nickel Exports Mt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Se
p-9
6
Se
p-9
7
Se
p-9
8
Se
p-9
9
Se
p-0
0
Se
p-0
1
Se
p-0
2
Se
p-0
3
Se
p-0
4
Se
p-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Se
p-0
7
Mill
ion
s
China
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
Source: MariTrade
Dr Helen B Bendall 29
Australian Wheat Exports North Asia in AUDm
2004 2005 2006 % growth 2005-6
China 504 261 74 -71.7%
Japan 390 321 371 15.5%
South Korea 341 258 295 14.5%
Taiwan 22 45 51 13.8%
DFAT 2007
The Future
Trade in Dry Bulk Commodities North Asia
Up? Down?
Dr Helen B Bendall 31
Dr Helen B Bendall 32
Will commodity exporting countries,
such as Australia, continue to ride
on the bow wave of North Asian dry
bulk carriers?
Dr Helen B Bendall 33
Uncertainties
World Economic Outlook supply and demand for dry-bulk commodities sub-prime fallout
Economic Outlook North Asia South Korea Japan
Economic Outlook China inflation “brownouts” environmental concerns – air, water
Dr Helen B Bendall 34
World Largest Economies in 2050 by GDP
Russia 3.2%
India 14.1%
Brazil 4.2%Other Asia 9.7%
G7 34.9%
Other 8.7%
China 25.2%
Source: Goldman Sachs 2001
BRIC Economies
Brazil
Russia
India
China
(including Japan)
Dr Helen B Bendall 35
Largest Regions by GDP in 2050
Source: Goldman Sachs 2001
G7 inc Jap 35%
Latin America 8%
Other 8%
Asia ex Japan 49%
Dr Helen B Bendall 36
GDP per Capita in 2050
USKorea
UKGermany
CanadaItaly
RussiaMexico
BrazilChinaTurkey
VietnamIran
EgyptIndia
PhilippinesIndonesia
JapanFrance
020000400006000080000100000
Source: Goldman Sachs 2001
Dr Helen B Bendall 37
Wealthiest Countries per Capita 2015in USD (base value 2000 USD)
Rank Region Country 2005 2015
1 G7 USA $37,715 $46,918
2 G7 Japan $39,853 $46,859
3 Asia H K $28,676 $42,196
4 Asia Singapore $23,772 $32,117
5 Asia South Korea $12,982 $20,487
14 Latin Am. Brazil $3,620 $4,702
15 Europe Russia $2,430 $3,965
20 Asia China $1,274 $2.384Source: USDA 2000
Dr Helen B Bendall 38
Economic Outlook – South Korea
% YOY 2007 2008 2009
Real GDP 5.0 4.1 5.2
CPI 2.5 3.5 3.0
Exports $s 12.1 9.3 8.9
Imports $s 11.9 9.4 8.9
Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 39
Economic Outlook - Japan
% YOY 2007 2008 2009
Real GDP 2.1 1.7 1.5
CPI 0.0 1.1 0.4
Exports $s 8.6 8.8 2.0
Imports $s 1.8 3.5 1.9
Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 40
Australian Trade 2006/7AUD Billion
22.8
32.7
21.7
17.4
0 10 20 30 40
China
Japan
Imports
Exports
AFR 24/4/08
Dr Helen B Bendall 41
Economic Outlook - China
% YOY 2007 2008 2009
Real GDP 11.9 9.8 8.0
CPI (8.5% April 08) 4.8 5.5 2.8
Industrial Production
18.0 14.8 12.0
Exports $s 25.7 15.7 8.7
Imports $s 20.8 19.2 13.0Source: Lehman Brothers May,2008,
Dr Helen B Bendall 42
China GDP % Growth
10.6%
11.2%
11.5%
11.9%
11.1%
9.50% 10.00% 10.50% 11.00% 11.50% 12.00%
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
GDP QoQ%
Source: AFR April 2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 43
Economic Outlook - China
% YOY 2007 2008 2009
Real GDP 11.9 9.8 8.0
CPI (8.5% April 08) 4.8 5.5 2.8
Industrial Production
18.0 14.8 12.0
Exports $s 25.7 15.7 8.7
Imports $s 20.8 19.2 13.0Source: Lehman Brothers May,2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 44
Real GDP % YOY
2007 2008 2009
China 11.9 9.8 8.0
Hong Kong 6.3 4.5 6.2
Japan 2.1 1.7 1.5
South Korea 5.0 4.1 5.2
Taiwan 5.7 3.9 5.7
Source: Lehman Brothers,2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 45
Largest Controlled Fleets‘000s DWT – 1 Jan 2007
Country of Domicile
# of Ships
Tonnage Rank
Total % of World
Japan 3,330 2 15.07China 3,184 4 7.19Hong Kong 689 7 4.60South Korea 1041 8 3.30Taiwan 574 11 2.54World Total 34,822 100.00%
Source: UNCTAD/LR/Fairplay 2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 46
Asian Market Share of World ShipsDwt millions
0 200 400 600 800
bulk carriers
container ships
general cargo
oil tankers
other
total
% Asia
World fleet
Source: Lloyds Register,,UNCTAD,2007.
Dr Helen B Bendall 47
Asian Bulk Carriers (Ex Japan) 1 Jan 2007
Flag Bulk Carrier GT
% of Total Fleet
China 9,227,147 39.78
North Korea 160,551 15.25
Hong Kong 17,909,201 54.79
South Korea 5,845,155 55.79
Taiwan 1,198,656 43.03
Source: UNCTAD 2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 48
Asian Percentage of World Fleetby Flag of Registration GT ’000s
Bulk Carriers
Container Ships
General Cargo
Oil Tankers
Other Types
Grand Total
Total 204,553 110,687 98,214 213,748 93,588 720,789
Asia % 25.28 16.17 24.61 22.27 14.39 21.53
Source: Lloyds Register, UINCTAD,2007
Dr Helen B Bendall 49
Australia Outlook% saar
% YOY 2007 2008 2009
Real GDP 3.9 2.5 2.0
Exports 3.3 5.0 4.0
Imports 10.7 4.2 3.5
Source: Lehman Brothers,2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 50
CPI % YOY
2007 2008 2009
China 4.8 5.5 2.8
Hong Kong 2.0 5.0 5.5
Japan 0.0 1.2 0.3
South Korea 2.5 4.0 3.5
Taiwan 1.8 3.8 3.5
Source: Lehman Brothers,2008
Dr Helen B Bendall 51
Asia (ex-Japan) – Real GDP
Source: Lehman Brothers 2008
