The CM-SAF expections on EURO4M
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EURO4M kick off meeting
The CM-SAF expections on EURO4M
R.W. Mueller, J. Lennhardt, C.Träger, J. Trentmann
DWD
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• Increase accuracy and climate quality of Essential Climate Variables (ECV), in order to improve our understanding of the climate system and the climate change.
Introduction
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Basic trend analysis of solar incoming surface radiation using Helioat data set (1995 – 2005: Data of Univ. of Oldenburg)
Substantial spatial variability of ‘solar brightening’ in Europe.Range of values (up to2 Wm-2yr-1) consistent with surface observations (e.g., Wild et al., JGR, 2009).Significant increase of energy uptake in Baltic sea.
Example Trend Analysis
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• Increase accuracy and climate quality of Essential Climate Variables (ECV), in order to improve our understanding of the climate system and the climate change.
• Data fusion: Combine exisiting data sources in order to benefit from the strength and eliminate the weakness of the individual data sources (satellite, ground based, reanalysis)
-> a unique selling proposition
Methods to improve ECVs
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• Increase accuracy and climate quality of Essential Climate Variables (ECV), in order to improve our understanding of the climate system and the climate change.
• Support of reanalysis improvement by verification as one basis for needed model system improvements and clarification of climate application areas (trend, anomalies) and associated analysis uncertainties.
-> This in turn is a basis for a reasonable data fusion, an example !
Methods to improve ECVs
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Evaluation with BSRN stations (SDL):
Main error quantities
The evaluation provide a clear indication that accuracy and precision of satellite based SDL products is not higher than that of ERA-interim !CM-SAF, ISCCP & GEWEX uses beside satellite NWP information !
Evaluation of SDL
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Retrieval: RTM based hybrid eigenvector approach (R.
Mueller et al., 2009, RSE). No need for NWP model
information.
CM-SAF SIS has ignificantly higher accuracy and precision.
Evaluation of SIS
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Reanalysis data is based on assimilation of a largeand increasing amount of satellite data. Reanalysis provides a wide set of parameters including surfaceradiation.
Satellite products should focus on: - ECVs with a higher accuracy than reanalysis
products. - ECVs with “equal” accuracy without or at least only 2nd order NWP model dependency.
DWD - EURO4M Philosophy
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Data Fusion Example
CM-SAF Solar Incoming Surface (SIS) products has a higher
accuracy than ERA-Interim but thermal products have not. CM-SAF will focus on the retrieval of SIS and SAL
and cloud albedo for EURO4M.
However, the user will be able to get the complete SurfaceRadiation Budget (SRB) from EURO4M.
SOL, SDL reanalysis data will be used as basis. The data will be evaluated and afterwards improved by topography and
bias correction.-> SRB example for data fusion. Expection: Focus of work should be the benefit of the user and not the interests of individual partner.
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General Expections
Establish a European Network for Climate monitoring based on reanalysis, satellite and ground based data. Three different communities come together we should use
The opportunity to improve the cooperation between this communities -> Indolent in the development and improvement of the reanalysis system. Close user interaction. Focus of work should be the benefit of the user and not the I
interests of individual partner. Support decision makers and scientists with valuable
information about climate change (outcome of data analysis).
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THE END
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Product Example: Full disk SIS
Monthly mean 200908:(15x15 km²). SIS is based on the MAGIC retrieval algorithm applied to GERB/SEVIRI (R. Mueller et al, RSE 2009, algorithm is also applied to AVHRR)
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Data provided by the University of Oldenburg has been used for first validation study. Data, hence validation results only for Europe, 1995-2005 (other validation results for globe or full MSG disk respectively).
Accuracy of Heliosat
-> Finally, some first trend studies
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Basic trend analysis of solar incoming surface radiation using Helioat data set (1995 – 2005: Data of Univ. of Oldenburg)
Substantial spatial variability of ‘solar brightening’ in EuropeRange of values (up to2 Wm-2yr-1) consistent with surface observations (e.g., Wild et al., JGR, 2009).Significant increase of energy uptake in Baltic sea.
R Trend Analysis
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Conclusions-II
11 year period is not long enough to draw final conclusions (limited amount of samples). Longer time series needed to proof long term behaviour of
the trends and analyse reasons for trends..
Dimming BritheningCI is a measure of cloud albedo Data of CM-SAF
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Conclusions-II
11 year period is not long enough to draw final conclusions. Longer time series needed to proof and analyse the trends. However, first results demonstrate the importance of cloud
albedo monitoring and analysis. CDR of cloud albedo enables the seperation of clear sky
(AOD, H20) and cloud effects supporting the analyseof the dimming and brightening sources.
Regional trends up to 2W/m²/yr has been found. This indicates that trends in cloud albedo could lead to asignificantly higher radiative forcing than that resulting from increase of greenhouse gases and could thereforesignificantly “confuse” the observation of “greenhouse” warming.
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Verification of ERA-interim with BSRNIn
com
ing
ther
mal
rad
iati
on a
t the
sur
face
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Verification of ERA-interim with BSRN
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Shortwave radiation (SIS)
Wild, JGR, 2009
ECHAM5 HAM model simulations
Consistent with CMSAF-Heliosat data set for Europe, satellite-based trends in Africa will be investigated starting in spring 2010!