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The Cloud, the Exaflood, and the Internet of Things / by Michael Nelson
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Transcript of The Cloud, the Exaflood, and the Internet of Things / by Michael Nelson
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THE CLOUD, THE EXAFLOOD, AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS: REALIZING THE FULL POTENTIAL REALIZING THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE NEXT GENERATION INTERNET
Michael R. NelsonVisiting Professor Internet Studies
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Visiting Professor, Internet StudiesCommunication, Culture and Technology ProgramGeorgetown [email protected]
My Background
B.S., geology, Caltechg gyPh.D., geophysics, MIT1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow4 years as Senator Gore's science advisor4 years as IT policy wonk at White House1998 1999 T h l i t t FCC
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1998-1999 -- Technologist at FCC9+ years as IBM’s Director, Internet Tech. Teaching at Georgetown since January, 2008
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50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #1
ALWAYS have a good bumper sticker
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50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #3
To make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”
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(preferably true)
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50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #5
State your conclusions upfront
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Conclusions
We are entering the third phase of the InternetAs profound as the World Wide WebThe next 2-3 years will define the Next Generation Internet
Standards and business practices are shaping the Net as much—or more—than law and regulationThe Internet revolution is less than 15% complete
Number of users
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Total bandwidthTotal amount of contentNumber of devicesNumber of applications
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50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #8
Always look beyond the headlines
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HEADLINE #1 – Cloud Computing
THE HEADLINES Google building huge data centers and
offering Google AppsWeb 2.0 buzzFlickr, YouTube, MySpace
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ySalesForce.com
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HEADLINE #1 – Cloud Computing
THE HEADLINE Google building huge data centers and offering
Google AppsWeb 2.0 buzzFlickr, YouTube, MySpaceSalesForce.com
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THE REAL NEWSWe’re entering the 3rd phase of computing
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From Eric Schmidt, the CEO of Google:
The Vision
, g“We’re moving into the era of ‘cloud’ computing,
with information and applications hosted in the diffuse atmosphere of cyberspace rather than on specific processors and silicon racks. The network will truly be the computer.”(“D ’t B t A i t th I t t ” E i t
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(“Don’t Bet Against the Internet,” Economist, 2007)
Phase One – Stand Alone Computer
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App. Data
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Phase Two – The Web
Web sites
Browser
DataData
Data
Data
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DataApp.PC
Phase Three – The Cloud
Data
DataData Data
DataApp.
App. App.
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“The Big Switch” by Nicholas Carr
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Many Flavors of Distributed Computing
1 MPeer-to-peer
The Holy GridE thi i t t d
Number of nodes
Peer to peer(PC-based)
Napster KaZaaSETI@home
Everything integratedwith everything
Power per node1 100
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Grid Computing(Server-based)
National Grids TeraGrid
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Gartner Says Cloud Computing Will Be
This is a VERY big deal
y p gAs Influential As E-business
Special Report Examines the Realities and Risks of Cloud Computing (June 26, 2008)
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Akamai – Visualizing the Internet
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http://www.akamai.com/html/technology/visualizing_akamai.html
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PC-based Grids
SETI @HomeBerkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing
>340,000 volunteers>585,838 computers24-hour average: 1,190.46 TeraFLOPS
Fight AIDS @ Home Dozens of other projects
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http://www.distributedcomputing.info/projects.html
TREND #2 – Internet of Things
Why it matters:y100 billion devices, not just 1.4 billion PCs
Impacts?Increased demand for ubiquitous wireless
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qNew uses for the Cloud
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The Cloud + The Internet of Things
Data
DataData Data
DataApp.
App. App.
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HEADLINE #3 – Internet Video
THE HEADLINE Warner Brothers, Fox offer TV shows
(including “Desperate Housewives” on the Internet
Apple puts movies online
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THE OTHER NEWSAmateur and illegal video everywhere!
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VIDEO EVERYWHERE
TV shows, YouTube clips, animations, and other video applications already account for more than 60 percent of Internet traffic (CacheLogic)80% of all traffic in some countries is video98% of all traffic by 2009 (Hui Zhang, CMU)Amateur video
100 million downloads/day on YouTube
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100 million downloads/day on YouTubeStar Trek fan videosGaming videosWebcams everywhere
Estimating the Exaflood(Swanson and Gilder, 2008)
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What’s in the Exaflood?
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HEADLINE #4 - Collaboration
THE HEADLINE
High-end video-conferencing (WebEx)Cisco Telepresence
THE REAL NEWSThe Gaming Revolution + Virtual Worlds
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The Gaming Revolution Virtual WorldsProducing GDP equivalent to Belgium'sMay 1 2006 Business Week cover story
Internet isn’t just a medium, it’s a PLACE
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Early Virtual Worlds Business Applications
Commerce Collaboration and Eventsand Events
Education Other
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and TrainingOther Emerging Applications
Within 5 years, 80% of all computing
BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1
Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide will happen “in the cloud”
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No, it won’t.
Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #1
No, it won t.
BUT, within 10 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide will happen “in the
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worldwide will happen in the cloud”
Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices
BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #2
Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors will be connected to the Net
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Within 10 years, 100 BILLION
Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #2
Within 10 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors will be connected to the Net
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TechnicalAgreement and adoption of key standards
Why Not?
g p yIPv6, DNSsec, IPsec, Grid standards
Business practicesCooperation around open standards vs. proprietary lock-in
Culture
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CultureUsers have to learn to “trust the cloud”CIOs and their teams have to adapt to new roles
Policy
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Policy – The rate-limiting step
•Hardware•Software•Organizations •People•Policy
GOVERNMENTS’ FIRST CHALLENGE
How to be an early adopter of new technologies ? (such as Virtual Worlds, Grid)To do list:
Move to open standardsExplore open source softwareAddress security
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Fix procurementChange culture and reorganize
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Critical technology choicesAuthentication and directoriesOpen Document FormatPrivacy-enhancing technologies (P3P)y g g ( )Digital Rights ManagementFiltering technologies to block spam, pornVoice over IPWireless Internet standardsService-Oriented Architecture (SOA) and Grid computingInstant messagingIP 6 d l t
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IPv6 deploymentLinking the phone network and the InternetRich media standards (SIP, multicast, etc.)End-to-end vs. walled gardens
Privacy
Updating policies for the Cloud
ySearch warrants, wiretapping in the Cloud?
TransparencyInternational data flowsOnline copyright
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Liability for cloud service providersWho’s responsible for Illegal activities?
Competition policy
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Formula for Effective Cloud Policy
C + (OS1)(OS2) = I + (Ch1 )(Ch2)C + (OS1)(OS2) I + (Ch1 )(Ch2)C = CompetitionOS1 = Open StandardsOS2 = Open SourceI = Innovation
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I InnovationCh1 = ChoiceCh2 = Cheap
1. The Clouds Scenario
Three Possible Futures
2. The Cloudy Skies Scenario3. The Blue Skies Scenario
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The Clouds Scenario
Different, distinct, proprietary cloudsNon-interoperable standardsThe cable television network business model; bottlenecks and monopolies
The Cloudy Skies Scenario
Distinct cloudsInterconnectedCloud applications aren’t interoperableLittle common middleware (e.g. no ( gsingle sign-on)Lots of missed opportunities
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Blue Skies Scenario
A “cloud of clouds” like the network of networksTruly interoperable clouds services“Mix and match”
Sky’s the Limit!!
Common middlewareOpen Cloud ManifestoAlmost infinite opportunities
ConclusionsThe Internet Revolution is less than 15% complete15% completeCloud computing could be even more disruptive than the World Wide Web –IF it’s as open and competitive as the Web
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When in doubt, empower the user!