The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

35
The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

description

Most important aspects – Objective = overall goal for the treaty – Divides parties into different categories – Establishes moderate commitments – Applies to 6 greenhouse gases – Requires parties to meet every year to assess whether the existing commitments will meet the objective

Transcript of The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Page 1: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

Page 2: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

UNFCCC

Page 3: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

UNFCCC

• Most important aspects– Objective = overall goal for the treaty– Divides parties into different categories– Establishes moderate commitments– Applies to 6 greenhouse gases– Requires parties to meet every year to assess whether

the existing commitments will meet the objective

Page 4: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Art. 2 - Objectives

• Stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

• within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner

Page 5: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Art. 4 - Commitments

• All Parties, Annex I Parties, Annex II Parties– All = developed, developing, economies in

transition– Annex I = developed – Annex II = developed - economies in transition

Page 6: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

All Parties:InventoryDevelop programmesCooperate in tech transferManage sinks and reservoirs

Subject to “common butDifferentiated responsibilities”

Annex II:Fund emissions inventoryTransfer technologyFund adaptation

Annex I:“take the lead”Develop national programsAnd take actions to mitigate

Page 7: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

UNFCCC

• Structural importance– Developed countries must take the lead to reduce

emissions– Developing countries do not have strong

obligations to reduce emissions – but should inventory and report

– Parties will meet to determine if they need to do more

Page 8: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol

Page 9: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

The Politics = Same as Before• Developed countries

– EU– U.S.– Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, etc.– Former Soviet Union

• Developing countries– Association of Small Island States (AOSIS)– OPEC– Brazil, Indonesia, other major forested areas– China– India– Least Developed Countries

Page 10: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

The Politics = Same as Before• Increased differences:

– Developing countries argue: developed countries promised to “take the lead” – until they do this, no new commitments for developing countries

• Berlin Mandate: affirms no new commitments for developing countries

– U.S. argues:• if developing countries (i.e., China) do not have

commitments, then United States should not sign or ratify any treaty

Page 11: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol Key Elements• QELROs = targets and timetables

– collectively, 5.2 percent reduction below 1990 levels during 5 year reporting period, 2008-2012

– Individually – calculated in AAUs• flexibility mechanisms

– emissions trading - AAUs– Joint implementation - ERUs– EU bubble - AAUs– CDM - CERs

Page 12: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Targets and Timetables

• Art 3(1) - Annex I Parties• individually or jointly• CO2Eq emissions of GHGs in Annex A

–“basket of gases”• do not exceed assigned amounts

–QELROs in Annex B• overall goal = at least 5 percent below 1990

levels in commitment period 2008-2012

Page 13: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Targets and Timetables

• Art 3(1) - Annex I Parties– CO2Eq emissions of GHGs in Annex A

• “basket of gases” = CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6

Page 14: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Targets and Timetables

• Art 3(1) - Annex I Parties– do not exceed assigned amounts = QELROs in

Annex B

Page 15: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Targets and Timetables

• Art 3(1) - Annex I Parties– do not exceed assigned amounts = QELROs in Annex

B– Australia 108 Austria 92 Belgium 92 Bulgaria* 92– Canada 94 Croatia* 95 Czech Republic* 92 Denmark 92– Estonia* 92 European Community 92 Finland 92 France 92– Germany 92 Greece 92 Hungary* 94 Iceland 110– Ireland 92 Italy 92 Japan 94 Latvia* 92– Liechtenstein 92 Lithuania* 92 Luxembourg92 Monaco 92– Netherlands 92 New Zealand 100 Norway 101 Poland* 94– Portugal 92 Romania* 92 Russian Federation*100 Slovakia* 92– Slovenia* 92 Spain 92 Sweden 92 Switzerland 92– Ukraine* 100 United Kingdom 92 United States of America 93– * Countries that are undergoing the process of transition to a market economy.

Page 16: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Targets and Timetables

• Art. 3(7) - Annex I Parties– 1st commitment period - 2008-2012– assigned amount

• percentage reduction times baseline times 5– = Annex B percentage of 1990 baseline emissions of GHGs– alternate baseline for human-made GHGs (see Art. 3(8))– alternative baseline for Economies in Transition (EITs)

– example• Japan baseline emissions in 1990 = 100• What is its assigned amount?

Page 17: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Targets and Timetables

– example• Japan baseline emissions in 1990 = 100 MtCO2eq

• What is its assigned amount?• 100Mt * .94 (percentage reduction) * 5 (commitment

period) = 470 MtCO2eq

Page 18: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Targets and Timetables

– example• Japan’s assigned amount = 470 MtCO2eq

• What does this mean?• Japan may emit, on average, 92 Mt/year, but can

have varying emissions levels during that 5-year period

• It just needs to achieve the overall goal

Page 19: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Targets and Timetables

• Baselines– 1990 baseline in most cases– alternate baseline for human-made GHGs– alternative baseline for Economies in Transition

(EITs)

Page 20: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Targets and Timetables

• Why have different baselines?– 1990 baseline – alternate baseline for human-made GHGs

• Montreal Protocol phase out – wanted to give time for companies to use alternative products and create new ones

– alternative baseline for Economies in Transition (EITs)

• “hot air”

Page 21: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Targets and Timetables

• What is “hot air”?– Economies in transition = large emissions in

early/mid 1980s– Soviet Union collapsed, so did their economies, so

did their emissions– But countries want to allow EITs to pretend their

emissions were higher – why?

Page 22: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Economies in Transition – Hot Air

Page 23: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Hot Air and Assigned Amounts

• If use 1989 as baseline:– Emissions = 100 MtCO2eq– QELRO = 100%– Assigned Amount = 100 MtCO2eq * 100% * 5 = 500

MtCO2eq• If use 1990 as a baseline:

– Emissions = 70 MtCO2eq– QELRO = 100% – Assigned Amount = 70 MtCO2eq * 100% * 5 = 350

MtCO2eq

Page 24: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Flexibility Mechanisms

• Emissions Trading• Joint Fulfillment• Joint Implementation• Clean Development Mechanism

Page 25: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Kyoto Protocol: Flexibility Mechanisms

• Joint Fulfillment - Art. 4– “EU Bubble”– Annex I parties may jointly fulfill commitments

• enter into agreement• total combined aggregate GHGs cannot exceed total assigned

amounts• revised emissions allocations must be set out in the agreement

– if revise regional economic integration organization, does not change commitments

• if Parties fail to meet combined level of emissions reductions, each Party is responsible for its emissions in the agreement

Page 26: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Joint Fulfillment - Art. 4

• “EU Bubble”– Annex I parties may jointly fulfill commitments

• enter into agreement• total combined aggregate GHGs cannot exceed total assigned

amounts• revised emissions allocations must be set out in the agreement

– if revise regional economic integration organization, does not change commitments

• if Parties fail to meet combined level of emissions reductions, each Party is responsible for its emissions in the agreement

• See page 66

Page 27: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Joint Fulfillment - Art. 4• “EU Bubble” – every EU country agreed under Annex

B to reduce emissions by 8% (or to emit .92 of baseline)

Country % reduction

New QELRO

Country % reduction

New QELRO

Austria -13% .87 Italy -6,5% .935

Belgium -7,5% .925 Luxembourg -28% .72

Denmark -21% .79 Netherlands -6% .94

Finland 0% 1.00 Portugal 27% 1.27

France 0% 1.00 Spain 15% 1.15

Germany -21% .79 Sweden 4% 1.04

Greece 25% 1.25 UK -12.5% .875

Ireland 13% 1.13

Page 28: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Emissions Trading

• Simplest form– Regulators set an overall cap on allowable emissions

from covered sources– Regulators allocate emissions credits/allowances to

covered sources – each credit = amount of pollution (e.g., 1 credit = 1 ton CO2eq)

– Sources may:• Emit same amount of pollution as they have credits• Emit more pollution, so buy credits• Emit less pollution, and sell credits

Page 29: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Emissions Trading

Page 30: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Emissions Trading

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Year 1-5 Year 6-10 Year 11-15 Year 16-20

Facility AFacility BFacility C

Emissions cap: year 1-5 = 12, year 6-10 = 9, year 11-15 = 6, year 16-20 = 3

Page 31: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Emission Trading

Emissions cap: year 1-5 = 12; emissions trading allows facilities to buy/sell credits, but cap stays the same

Page 32: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Emissions Trading

• Arguments in Favor?

Page 33: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Emissions Trading

• Arguments in Favor?– Cost-effective– Flexible– Administratively easier (money v. expertise to set

emissions limits)– Spurs Innovation– Absolute cap on emissions

Page 34: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Emissions Trading

• Arguments in Favor? Some responses.– Cost-effective

• For some facilities, but not all.

– Flexible• Subject to gaming

– Administratively easier• Not always

– Spurs Innovation• Not always

Page 35: The Climate Treaties: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC.

Emissions Trading

• Arguments in Favor? Some responses (cont.)– Absolute cap on emissions

• Overallocation problem• What if the cap doesn’t achieve environmental goals?• Caps may not be more effective than command-and-

control• But they are more directive than taxes