The Climate of Kitsap County Bob Abel Olympic College KITSAP COUNTY CLIMATE SUMMARY Wet Winters and Dry Summers It Doesnt Often Get Too Cold or Too Hot S/SW Winds are Wet, N/NE Winds are Dry Topography Affects Air Flow and Rainfall Generally Drier As You Go North How has Kitsaps climate varied in the past? The Historical Record is Sparse: 55 years of available Bremerton temperature data 110 years of available Bremerton rainfall data Anecdotes Kitsap may be getting warmer 27% of Data is Invalid Only 1 Data Set ( ) 1955, 1958 are suspicious (is the rest?) (BFD2) The Few Complete Months Indicate a Warming Trend Bremerton Rainfall: Were wetter than we used to be PSNS, ; BFD #2, 1950-Present site change (1950) McKenna Falls rainfall pattern seems to match Bremertons (Kathleen Cahall) Longer Rainfall Histories Seem to Match Up Kitsaps Recent Weather Observations Are In Line With Our Neighbors Bremerton Monthly Rain Totals, inches total Nov-Jan: 54% Oct-Mar: 88% Bremerton in October Extreme Precipitation Events Seem to be Occurring More Often (agrees with predictions) Bremerton in November Bremerton in December Bremerton in January Bremerton in February Bremerton in March Bremerton in April Bremerton in May Bremerton in June Bremerton in July Bremerton in August Bremerton in September The Known Sources: El Nino/La Nina Oscillation (3-5 years) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (20-30 years) Pacific/North America (PNA) Pattern (6-10 day lead time) Arctic Oscillation Julian-Madden Oscillation Volcanic Activity Greenhouse Warming What Affects Kitsaps Climate? El Nino/La Nina is said to be an important effect, but its complicated How are we affected by known climate variations? Were still learning The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Appears to Align with Bremerton Rainfall Pattern Warm PDO Cool PDO Warm PDO Summary of Kitsaps Historical Climate Data TEMPERATURES The one available temperature record is incomplete We seem to be warming over the last 55 years, with recent (~10 year) cooling trend. Data lacks the detail to delineate known climate effects. RAINFALL The one available long-term (110 year) rainfall record is nearly continuous, but the site changed in Data appears compatible with recent local data and older, semi-local data. Rainfall appears to have increased. Pattern appears related to PDO, but is still too sketchy to correlate to other known sources of climate variability The current set of Kitsap climate data is interesting, but not very useful Data is incomplete Data quality is suspect One station cannot characterize a County of microclimates Better climate data can help Kitsap in the short term Improved understanding of the effects of large scale climate variability increases our forecasting skills water resources storm water public health agriculture ecosystems public education Models agree that average temperatures will continue to increase throughout the 21st century. Models indicate that the frequency of severe weather events may continue to increase. Puget Sound sea level is predicted to rise 6-50 inches during the 21st century Small increases in sea level can produce much larger storm surges Some modelers predict an even greater rise Precipitation trends are less certain, but lean toward wetter winters and dryer summers Better climate data can really help Kitsap in the long term Everybody always talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it. - Mark Twain Everybody always talks about the weather, but now its time to do something about it. - Bob We Can Now Build A Reliable Kitsap Community Weather Network The Technology is now available multiple consistent data records reliable data inexpensive! A Valuable Planning Tool for Water Resources Storm Water/Roads Energy Resources (solar, wind) Agriculture Health Ecosystems Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network CoCoRaHS A community-based volunteer network taking daily measurements of rain, hail and snow in their backyards and recording it via a web-based system. A Kitsap Community Weather Network Cheap to build and run based on community input an irreproducible data archive detailed time-wise data detailed spatial information quality can be assessed via statistics real-time weather assessment a tool for modelers a tool for the County a tool for energy harvesters a tool for growers Kitsap Precipitation Prediction - Short Term (Seasonal) Fall Forecast Meetings for the Water Year occur in September/October of each year, based primarily on the ENSO and the PDO: Contact Lara Whitely Binder (UWCIG): Short term predictions of precipitation (on the order of months): University of Washingtons Climate Impacts Group (UWCIG):Monthly Pacific Northwest Climate Outlook:It would be useful to correlate previous forecasts to NWS and locally available data (e.g.tohttp://www.kpud.org/water/reference/docs/precipmap2.pdf improve our understanding of how the overall PNW forecast relates to Kitsap. Planning for Climate Change in Kitsap County Assemble a cross-disciplinary group to assess and plan for potential impacts of climate change. It should include local experts in water resources storm water management waste management utilities public health natural resource citizenry grad student? Use the UWCIGs Climate Change Handbook as the basis for such planning. King Countys work could be incorporated as much as possible, Collaboration with King County could be beneficial to both parties. Develop a set of permanent NWS-compatible weather stations, to monitor our climate and provide modeling data State and Federal grants for such work may be available.