The Chinese economic recession and its future …...Real estate WH Manufacturing Inc. Hopkinsville,...
Transcript of The Chinese economic recession and its future …...Real estate WH Manufacturing Inc. Hopkinsville,...
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The Chinese economic recession and its
future global impact.
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Chris Goode
Chief Business Development Officer of the Propulsys group
responsible for:
Development of the business to give long term sustainability
Diversification into new growth industries & new opportunities
President of White (China) Drive Products Co. Ltd.
General Manager of Peerless Manufacturing Zhenjiang Co. Ltd.
General Manager K Products (Zhenjiang) Co. Ltd.
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Today, I am going to share with you the real life changes
that are occurring in China; not as reported or unreported
for that matter, in the western media, but nevertheless
changes of significance that will impact every business in
the world and every citizen in the world!
But, first let me give you a quick overview of who we are
and what we do in China.
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Propulsys Group World Headquarters, Hopkinsville,
Kentucky, USA
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Propulsys - A family-owned group of companies
White (China) Drive Products
Co. Ltd Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, China
Manufacturer of Commodity Products
&
Global Engineering Center
White (China) Drive Products
Asian Distribution Center Shanghai, China
K Products Zhenjiang Co. Ltd Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, China
A Trading Company
Peerless Manufacturing
(Zhenjiang) Co. Ltd Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, China.
Energy related products manufacturer
Tenacis Inc. Hopkinsville, Kentucky, USA
Real estate
WH Manufacturing Inc. Hopkinsville, Kentucky USA
Manufacturer of engineered
products
White Drive Products Inc. Hopkinsville, Kentucky USA
Global Sales & Marketing,
Global Application Engineering
White Drive Products
GmbH Opfenbach, Germany
European Sales &
Distribution Center
Expand Product offering
Diversification New Markets
Growth
White Staffing Management,
LLC. Hopkinsville, Kentucky, USA
Temporary & Permanent Staffing
Agency
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White Drive Products – Core Products
Hydraulic Motors & Brakes
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White (China) Drive Products Co. Ltd.
Business License issued April 28, 2005
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Location of White (China) Drive Products Co. Ltd.
Zhenjiang, Jiangsu
Home to 2.89million people.
The 78th largest city in China.
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White (China) Drive Products Co. Ltd.
From nothing to a
profitable wholly-
owned foreign
investment
enterprise in
RunZhou District
of Zhenjiang City,
250 days.
“Ground Zero”
May 31, 2005
In production
November 2005
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White (China) Drive Products Production Facilities
Heat Treatment Typical CNC Cell
Final assembly & test Wash, Paint & Dry
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Peerless Manufacturing (Zhenjiang) Co., Ltd.
Operational July 8, 2009,
PMZ’s mission is to make energy safe,
efficient and clean
PMZ serves China & Asian Markets
PMZ is versatile and meets Chinese and
American standards
PMZ world class quality products using
advanced technologies.
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Peerless Manufacturing (Zhenjiang) Co., Ltd. Products manufactured:
Primary Products:
Nuclear Power Station Equipment
Steam Dryers
Separation Vessels used in LNG
supply lines
Horizontal separation vessels
Vertical separation vessels - dry
scrubber cyclone bundles, swirl
tube bundles
Pressure Vessels, including
Pulsation Dampeners
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CHINA
A land of constant changes
A land driven by its cultural destiny
A land of people driven by historical events
A land of capitalism in a communistic society
A land where the values of people are different to ours
A land where the mood of its people has shifted significantly
A land that will become the center of the world again
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The Times They Are A Changin’
Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'
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CHINA
1990 ~ 2008 the economic growth was driven by:
Exports
Foreign Investments
Economy absorbed 400 million people who migrated from rural
areas
Broad based improvement of living standards
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CHINA
Global Recession of 2008/2009
China began to integrate into the world economy
Provided direct support through funding of USA and EU debt
Very successfully Implemented their own stimulus package
Provincial and local government debt exploded
Exports continued their shift to finished products
Entrepreneurs started to realize the importance of branding and the associated implications
Dramatic improvement in living standards in the urban areas
Migration from the rural areas continues as planned
The “destiny” of China moved from a belief to a reality
The expectations of the people of China changed
Things they are a changin’
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The Times They Are A Changin’
The expectations of the Chinese people
The cultural revolution is just an history lesson for the current
generation
Chinese communism has been good to its people
Life is good and should continue to get better
Life is not all about work
Life is about enjoyment and harmony at work and at home
Cradle to grave dependency is evaporating
Freedom to do what I want
To travel wherever I want
“I am Chinese”
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Times They Are A Changin’ The results of expectation change on Chinese worker:
Owning my own home
Owning a car
Owning an investment property………
Giving my child a good education – good university education
Travelling overseas
Looking after mom & dad
Eating meat every day
Going out restaurants – often
Getting a less arduous job
Being a manager
Earning more money
Buying more
Living the American Dream Living the Chinese Dream
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The Times They Are A Changin’ China is in a recession its growth rate in 2011 fell into single digits!
The forecasted future growth rate is:
• Next few years 8%
• Average over the next 20 years 6%
• As 2030 approaches 5%
Why the change?
End of stimulus implementation
Global economic impact
The Chinese government has been shifting gears big time.
Meeting the needs of the current and upcoming generations
Focusing on consumer driven growth
Creating wealth that will fuel consumer spending
Less emphasis of foreign investment
Less emphasis on exports
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YES DRIVEN BY THE POWER OF THE PEOPLE
USA, Russia, Japan, Mexico, Germany, Turkey, France, UK, Italy, Ukraine, Spain, Poland, Canada, Romania, Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, Belgium, Czech Rep. Hungary, Belarus, Sweden, Austria, Serbia, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Denmark, Slovakia, Finland, Norway, Croatia, Georgia, Ireland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Lithuania, Albania, Latvia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Slovenia, Guernsey, Greenland, Lichtenstein, Monaco, Gibraltar, Iceland, Jersey, Andorra, Isle of Man, Estonia, Luxembourg
1,376,484,604
52 Countries
1,323,044,000
POPULATION OF PRC CONSUMER SPENDING WILL INCREASE FROM 37% of GDP
to 50% over the NEXT 5 YEARS
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Does “living the Chinese dream” mean the end of
cheap labor? You decide:
Data below based on increased salaries effective April 1, 2012 and ¥6.25 to US$1
4 Highly competent CNC operator and programmer $3.05 per hour
3 Competent CNC operator $2.55 per hour
Accountant with Bachelors degree + 5 years experience $ 592 per month
Quality Eng.- Bachelors degree +5 years experience $ 864 per month
Mechanical Eng.- Bachelors degree +5 years experience $ 960 per month
Design Engineers Masters degree + 5 years experience $1,280 per month
Competent department manager $1,600 per month
Fringe Costs 34% of negotiated level
Housing fund 10% 0f salary capped at $128 employer contribution
Annual Bonus Maximum 3 month salary, minimum 1 months salary
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What about enjoyment of life and living in harmony?
Participate with Communist Labor Union in your company! Negotiate and work with the officials of the Labor Bureau to establish:
Principal of operation in your company:
No employees “contribution” to the CCP
Annual Wage & Salary Review – Target acceptance CCP planned increase
Safety & Security of the workers
Education & training programs
Employee activities
Agree annual participation cost
Target 2% of annual salary cost paid monthly
100% use of contribution in the company, no contribution to the CCP
Give the employees the opportunity to create enjoyment and
harmony.
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Living the Chinese Dream- What is the impact on business?
Ability to borrow working capital to support fast growth 80% of ALL bank loans are to provincial & local government ($1.7T)
Bank debt ratio’s controlled by the central bank and ever changing to control growth versus inflation
Pool of funds available for business working capital is constantly changing
Increasing direct labor costs Productivity gains still to be made
Declining pool of labor
Highly skilled operators expect to move out of direct labor into supervision
Increasingly available low cost robotics
A significant opportunity to introduce lean concepts
Increasing indirect labor costs Very significant opportunity to increase productivity in this area
Innovation & Product Development Chinese engineers are highly innovative when encouraged and allowed to “fly”
Product development cycles are shorten due to availability of well qualified engineers
The cost for innovation & development will remain low in the long term
Managing in civility and harmony Energy and time consuming
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The real risks to: The Times They Are A Changin’
Population growth Single child policy in the urban areas
As incomes increase and family debt decreases
Increasingly couples are paying the penalties and having more than one child.
The lack of skilled worker Declining vocational college attendance – parents pushing higher education
Unskilled migrating labor needs training
Robotics are already being increasingly used
Local government debt Total provincial and local government debt ¥10.7T (US$1.7T)
Majority of the debt is through direct ownership of construction companies and
development projects
17 local governments were authorized to issue bonds in 2011 Very popular with investors – Shanghai bond issue was over subscribed 300%
Over time the liquidation of housing inventory is inevitable with the continued
migration of rural workers to the urban centers (300~400 million more people)
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The real risks to: The Times They Are A Changin’(continued)
Infra-Structure Spending Not to be repeated
Funding of Provincial and Local Government Current source of funds, the income from “sale” of land, cannot be sustained
A new fiscal/taxation system will need to be introduced This will not be popular with property owners – now the people
Funding of Government Departments Nearly all government departments are expected to be self funding and
“profitable” on their own transaction fees
Lack of transaction fees in 2011 & 2012 led to little used tax regulations being
implemented…..subject to negotiations
This will continue to be an issue
The lack of continuing movement to a social “democracy” This movement has continued now for more than a decade
It will continue under the influence of Premier Wen Jaobao in his retirement. This was made very clear in his recent address to the National Congress.
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The recent World Bank recommended actions
required to sustain the Chinese Economy
Rein in state owned companies
Reform banking
Fiscal system overhaul
Build world class universities
Greater emphasis on innovation
Land reform
Reform the social safety net
Integrate China into the world economy
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China, consumer driven & “Living The Chinese
Dream” will impact the developed economies:
Consumer Products Currently imported Chinese goods will cost more
This will be CPI Inflationary
Capital Equipment & Durable Goods Currently unknown quality Chinese equipment will be purchased
Current and or local manufacturers will not be able to cost effectively compete unless they are Chinese.
Less and less manufacturing in the developed countries
More and more service industries jobs
Raw Material resources. China has been quietly executing longer contracts and arrangements to secure long term availability of raw materials
Energy resources & costs China is investing heavily in their 2020 Energy Independence program
China’s long term energy costs will be lower than the rest of the world
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Propulsys remains firmly committed to expansion of its investment in China and in particularly to RunZhou, Zhenjiang.
We see and understand the tremendous gr0WTH opportunity in China
We see and participate in the global business shift that is occurring We know and experience the attitude change of the people of China We understand guanxi and the importance of relationships
We live the changes
Propulsys believes that for the foreseeable future China will offer the best opportunity for above average returns on investment The Chinese lack of an external debt burden and the consumer driven
growth will: Create significant tax advantages compared to USA and Europe Longer term inflationary impact in China will be less than in USA and Europe
Propulsys’ strategies for future investment
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Propulsys’ strategies for future investment
Based on its knowledge, experience and capabilities in China Propulsys will:
Continue its own investment and expansion in China Work with Chinese companies to establish new highly profitable
growth ventures
Offer to western third party companies: J/V opportunities that will establish new wholly owned WOFIE’s in China Strategic Partnership Relationships to design, develop and manufacture:
Finished Products Metric designs Chinese materials and components
Conduct domestic Chinese Market analysis/study to identify and quantify the sales and manufacturing opportunity
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Strategies for future foreign investors
Recognize the economy of China – the fastest growing
consumer driven market in the world.
Respect and participate in the Chinese culture
Change your attitude!
China is not going to change…..you need to change!
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Thank you for your time.
Q&A