The Changing U.S. Economy
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The Changing U.S. The Changing U.S. Economy: Economy: What Does It Mean for What Does It Mean for Oklahoma? Oklahoma? Chad Wilkerson Chad Wilkerson Oklahoma City Branch Executive Oklahoma City Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City City Governor’s Council for Workforce and Economic Development Governor’s Council for Workforce and Economic Development April 10, 2006 April 10, 2006
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Transcript of The Changing U.S. Economy
- 1. The Changing U.S. Economy: What Does It Mean for Oklahoma?
- Chad Wilkerson
- Oklahoma City Branch Executive
- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
- 2. I. The U.S. Industrial Structure of the Future
- 3. The structure of the U.S. economy will change over the next
5-10 years. Why?
- The short answer is:
- 4. The longer answer includes several inter-related factors:
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- Changing consumer tastes
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- Increasing globalization
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- Changing workforce skills
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- Technological improvements
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- 5.
- The latest projections go through 2014 and were finalized in late 2005.
- Obviously no one knows exactly.
- One respected source is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose economists do detailed 10-year projections of industrial and occupational employment every other year.
- 6. 15 U.S. industries projected to ADD jobs the fastest through
2014*
- * Among industries with more than 100,000 employees
- 7. 15 U.S. industries projected to SHED jobs the fastest
through 2014*
- * Among industries with more than 100,000 employees
- 8. II. Industrial Structure and Future Oklahoma Job and Income Growth
- 9.
- In addition, states with favorable industrial structures tend to grow even faster than one would expect, due to spillover growth to other industries.
- Research suggests about 15-20 percent of the variation in state job growth rates over 10-year periods can be explained by industrial structure.
- 10. Annual employment growth, 2004-2014 if states industries grow at projected national rate Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 1.30%-1.50% 1.20%-1.29% 1.11%-1.19% 0.98%-1.10%
- 11. The 10 industries contributing the most to differences between OK and US projections Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Small Positive Semiconductor & electronic mfg. 10 Large Negative Support activities for mining 9 Large Negative Federal government 8 Small Negative Educational services 7 Large Negative Nonagriculture self-employed workers 6 Large Positive Employment services 5 Small Positive Cut and sew apparel mfg. 4 Small Negative Computer systems design 3 Large Negative Oil and gas extraction 2 Large Negative Agricultural products (grain, livestock) 1 Presence? Contribution? Industry or Small Negative Due to Large Positive or
- 12. Oklahoma City is projected to have a higher share of the long-term job growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent
- 13. The net effect of expected changes in the mix of jobs is to raise average salaries in OK Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 14. U.S. and Oklahoma job growth is projected to be fastest among high-paying occupations Projected Annual Job Growth by Average Pay Through 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 15. III. Meeting Oklahomas Future Workforce Needs
- 16. From 1994-2004, OK met its employment demand largely by population growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau Average annual growth in employment and working age population, 1994-2004 Percent
- 17. but also by increased labor force participation Oklahoma United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 18. Meeting future job demand could be a little tougher Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau Projected annual growth in employment and working age population, 2004-2014 Percent
- 19. Non-metro Oklahoma may have an advantage: an untapped labor supply Source: U.S. Census Bureau
- 20. Oklahoma must ensure potential workers obtain the training necessary to succeed Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 21. Oklahomas share of college graduates is slightly lower than in the U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
- 22. Conclusions
- The industrial structure of the United States is expected to continue to change in the years ahead
- Oklahomas intermediate-term outlook for jobs and incomes, based on industrial structure, is slightly less favorable than the nations
- A challenge for Oklahoma heading forward will be finding and training the workers needed to fill the jobs of the future