The Changing UK Housing...
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The Changing UK Housing Context Kenneth Gibb University of Glasgow May 2017 Shaping Futures Toronto Shaping Housing Futures Symposium University of Toronto Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership Page 1 of 12 May 2017
Transcript of The Changing UK Housing...
The Changing UK Housing Context
KennethGibbUniversityofGlasgow
May2017
ShapingFutures
Toronto
Shaping Housing Futures Symposium University of Toronto
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership Page 1 of 12 May 2017
Chart Two: Stock by Tenure (As a % of All Dwellings) 2015
23% 17% 16% 15%
20% 15%
62% 62% 69%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Scotland England Wales
Social Rented Housing Stock (%) Private Rented Dwellings (%)
Owner Occupied Dwellings (%)Source: Scottish Government
Source:CHMA2017Q1
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Table 2: Households: by household type in 1996, 2006 and 2016
UK Millions
One person households
One family household:
couple*
One family household: lone
parentTwo or more
unrelated adultsMulti-family households
All households
1996 6.6 13.9 2.3 0.7 0.2 23.7
2006 7.3 14.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 25.4
2016 7.7 15.5 2.7 0.9 0.3 27.1
Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
Notes:
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-20%
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
UK Scotland
Source: ONS HPI
House prices relative to pre-crisis peak (Monthly)
Source:CHMA2017Q1
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Figure 3: Affordability ratio by local authority, 2015
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-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%
GB
Scotland
Annual rate of change in rental prices
Source: ONS
Source:CHMA2017Q1
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Figure 5: UK house building, permanent dwellings completed, financial years 1970/01 to2013/14UK dwellings completed
Notes:1. Source: DCLG Live Table 2092. Data based on financial year
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0
4
8
12
16
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Non-high income multiple;LTV > 90
High income multiple; 90 <LTV < 95
High income multiple; LTV> 95
All loans with impairedhistory
%
Higher-risk lending as proportion of all regulated residential lending: UK (Quarterly)
Source: FCA
Source:CHMA:2017Q1
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Policy Frameworks
• UK-levelhousingpolicy:-largepartoffiscalpolicyincludingspendingrules-mostwelfarespend-financialpolicy,monetarypolicy&finnacialregulaKon• Devolvedhousing:e.g.RTB;homelessness,borrowing• Rubbingpoints:welfarebenefits,HAreclassificaKonandthePRS• MulK-levelgovernance–citydeals,localgovernance,etc.
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Case Study: Private RenAng Schizophrenia?
TaxPolicy• 3%surchargeonstampduty(landbuildingstransacKonstaxinScotland)• 8%surchargeoncapitalgainstaxforlandlordssellingassets• StealthtaxreducKononmortgageinteresttaxrelieftobasicrate(becomesaturnovertaxandincreasesmanylandlordsmarginaltaxrate)
Scotland• FromDecember2017,newopen-endedtenancy–asymmetricrulesforendingtenancies• LocalrentpressurezonesandrentgrowthlimitaKon• 3rdpartyarbitraKonoverunreasonablerentincreases
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Policy Responses
Fixing our broken housing market
• Fixingourbrokenhousingmarket• SupplytargetsinEngland,in
London,WalesandScotland• HomelessnessreducKon&
prevenKon
• OtherkeyresponsesnotalreadymenKoned:-industrialeconomicsofbuilding-localhousingneed&plans
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The 2016 UK General ElecAon
• Overview–opposiKonpartyposiKons• KeyConservaKvePledges:-socialhousing(butlaterreversionandfixedtenancies)-biddingforrighttoborrowmore-carefunding:£100Kceilingonassets–quickestu-turninhistory?• Brexitandhousing(dependingon‘deal’):-economytohousingnegaKvedriversviaGDP,currency&migraKon-construcKonsector-muchbiggereffectsifleadstofurtherconsKtuKonalchange
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