THE CHANGING TEACHER AND STUDENT DEMOGRAPHICS IN … · 24/08/2015 3 BC population and projections...
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24/08/2015 1 THE CHANGING TEACHER AND STUDENT DEMOGRAPHICS IN BC’s K-12 EDUCATION SYSTEM: TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS 2015 BCTF Summer Conference Charlie Naylor and Margaret White BCTF Research Charlie Naylor, PhD, Senior Researcher
Transcript of THE CHANGING TEACHER AND STUDENT DEMOGRAPHICS IN … · 24/08/2015 3 BC population and projections...
24/08/2015
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THE CHANGING TEACHER AND STUDENT DEMOGRAPHICS
IN BC’s K-12 EDUCATION SYSTEM: TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS
2015 BCTF Summer ConferenceCharlie Naylor and Margaret White
BCTF Research
Charlie Naylor, PhD, Senior Researcher
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Context: Provincial and School District Data Provincial and School District Reports:
http://www bced gov bc ca/reporting/province phphttp://www.bced.gov.bc.ca/reporting/province.php
The changing demographics of BC
Population changes and the impact on student enrolmentstudent enrolment
Labour market predictions
Teacher demographics
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BC population and projections for children, ages 0 to 19 years old: 2010-2030
1,060,000
1,080,000
900 000
920,000
940,000
960,000
980,000
1,000,000
1,020,000
1,040,000
Ages 0-19
Sources: Estimates - Statistics CanadaProjections - BC Stats, April 2014http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/PopulationProjections.aspx
Note: All figures are as of July 1st of the year stated
880,000
900,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Student enrolment – provincial, all public schools – elementary
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2010/11 36,344 36,723 36,865 36,966 37,477 38,248 39,366 40,761
2011/12 37,202 36,927 36,960 37,145 37,324 37,918 38,680 39,753
2012/13 38,449 37,425 36,863 36,919 37,196 37,440 38,067 38,913
2013/14 38,817 39,036 37,696 37,240 37,331 37,626 37,838 38,582
2014/15 38,911 39,197 39,277 37,908 37,566 37,722 38,011 38,241
Source: Ministry of Education. (2015). 2014/15 student statistics, Province. http://www.bced.gov.bc.ca/reports/pdfs/student_stats/prov.pdf
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2012—2022 Labour Market Outlook Highlights
Total job openings 1,000,000
Retirements 669,800 (68%)
Economic Growth 315,400 (32%)
Source: British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook. https://www.workbc.ca/WorkBC/media/WorkBC/Documents/Docs/BC-LM-Outlook-2012-2022.pdf
A tight labour market is expected in BC from 2019-2022
“Overall, labour demand is expected to grow faster than labour supply in BC. As a result, aste t a abou supp y C s a esu t,tight labour market conditions, where the demand for workers surpasses the supply of workers, are expected in later part of the outlook period, starting in 2019.”This might impact the supply of teachers if there is competition to hire well-educated, adaptable and skilled employees, particularly from private sector employers.
Source: British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook. https://www.workbc.ca/WorkBC/media/WorkBC/Documents/Docs/BC-LM-Outlook-2012-2022.pdf
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Investors Group recruiting teachers in Canada
http://careers.investorsgroup.com/en/careers/become-a-financial-advisor?utm_source=GoogleSearch&utm_medium=EnglishSEM&
t t t 2& t i C lt tR it tutm_content=seg2&utm_campaign=ConsultantRecruitment
Occupations projected to have the highest number of job openings
OccupationTotal projected job openings
to 2022to 2022
Retail and wholesale trade managers 28,000
Professional occupations in nursing 25,300
S d d l t h l t hSecondary and elementary school teachers and educational counsellors
24,900
Source: British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook. https://www.workbc.ca/WorkBC/media/WorkBC/Documents/Docs/BC-LM-Outlook-2012-2022.pdf
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BC’s LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: DEMAND FOR ELEMENTARY, SECONDARY TEACHERS AND SCHOOL COUNSELLORS BY REGION, 2015-2022 (estimated)
REGION EXPANSION REPLACEMENTTOTAL JOB OPENINGS
Vancouver Island/Vancouver Island/
Coast830 3,250 4,080
Mainland/Southwest 2,100 12,480 14,580
Thompson‐Okanagan 600 2,200 2,800
Kootenay 310 810 1,120
Cariboo 170 960 1,130
North Coast andNorth Coast and
Nechako30 450 480
Northeast 250 460 710
Source: British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook. https://www.workbc.ca/WorkBC/media/WorkBC/Documents/Docs/BC-LM-Outlook-2012-2022.pdf
• The three largest regions—Mainland/ Southwest, Vancouver Island/Coast and Thompson-Okanagan—are expected to
t f 90 t f t t l j t d j baccount for 90 percent of total projected job openings in BC over the ten-year period to 2022.
• Almost two-thirds (65 percent) of total job openings in BC are expected in theopenings in BC are expected in the Mainland/Southwest region.
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Years of teaching experience (province)
23 0%
2009/10—2013/14: Percentages of teachers with less than 5 years and over 20 years of work experience in the province
22.2%
21.0%
20.7%
22.3%
22.6%
22.4%22.3%
22.1%
20 5%
21.0%
21.5%
22.0%
22.5%
23.0%
20.5%
20.0%
18.5%
19.0%
19.5%
20.0%
20.5%
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
% under 5 years
Teachers’ headcount, by age
5,000
6,000
2009/10
2010/11
2 000
3,000
4,000
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
0
1,000
2,000
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 and over
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Percentage of teachers with under 5 years and over 20 years of experience in BC, 2013-14
60%
70%
% under 5 years
30%
40%
50%
% over 20 years
0%
10%
20%
Kootenay Zone: Percentage of teachers with under 5 years and over 20 years’ experience, 2013-14
40.5%
40%
45%
% under 5 years
% over 20 years
30.5%29.4%
22.6%21.1%
19.9%
26.1%
21.7%
29.0%
32.6%
20%
25%
30%
35%
y
10.7%
10.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Southeast Kootenay Rocky Mountain Kootenay Lake Arrow Lakes Kootenay-Columbia Boundary
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Metro West Zone: Percentage of teachers with under 5 years and over 20 years experience, 2013-14
40.0%40%
45%
% under 5 years
18.0%
17.0%18.4%
16 9%
24.9%25.7%
24.0% 24.5%
17.2%
19.1%20.4% 22.9%
20.0%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%% over 20 years
14.3%13.5%
16.9%16.3%17.2%
16.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Richmond Vancouver New Westminster
Burnaby Coquitlam North Vancouver
West Vancouver
Sea To Sky Central Coast
Metro/Fraser Valley Zone : Percentage of teachers with under 5 years and over 20 years experience, 2013-14
36.4%
32.9%35%
40%
% under 5 years
% over 20 years
17.3%
21.2% 23.6%
24.9%
21.3%
16.3%
27.9%
21.7%
19.9%
25.2%
17.9%
19.6%
26.7%
23.1%
15%
20%
25%
30%
11.6% 11.3%
0%
5%
10%
Chilliwack Abbotsford Langley Surrey Delta Maple Ridge Mission Fraser -Cascade
Conseil scolaire
francophone
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Okanagan Zone: Percentage of teachers with under 5 years and over 20 years experience, 2013-14
27.3%
27.0% 26.4%
31.2%
28.8%27.3%
30%
35%
13.0%
20.0%20.8%
18.1%
14.7%
18.0%
23.3%
15.0%15.2%
20.3% 20.4%
20.9%
10%
15%
20%
25%
% under 5 years
0%
5% % over 20 years
North Coast Zone: Percentage of teachers with under 5 years and over 20 years experience, 2013-14
57.9%60%
70%
32.7%
27.0%
33.8%
27.2%
37.8%
30%
40%
50%
% under 5 years
% over 20 years
24.8%
20.6%
17.2%12.2%
0.0%
16.2%
0%
10%
20%
Haida Gwaii Prince Rupert Bulkley Valley Coast Mountains Stikine Nisga'a
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Vancouver Island North Zone: Percentage of teachers with under 5 years and over 20 years experience, 2013-14
48.7%50%
60%
19.5%
15 7%17.6%
25.9%
17.0%
25.6% 25.0%
30.9%
27.2%26.1%
27.3%
19.8%
26.0%
24.6% 23.9%20%
30%
40%
% under 5 years
% over 20 years
12.8%
15.7%
10.3%
0%
10%
North Central Zone: Percentage of teachers with under 5 years and over 20 years experience, 2013-14
32 0%
35%
40%
21.6%
20.0%
26.4%
21.1%
32.0%30.7%
23.0%
30.3%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0%
5%
10%
Cariboo-Chilcotin Quesnel Prince George Nechako Lakes
% under 5 years
% over 20 years
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Vancouver Island South Zone: Percentage of teachers with under 5 years and over 20 years experience, 2013-14
29.0%30%
35%
20.6%
15.7%
23.9%
20.7%
17.7%
22.6%
21.0%
24.8%
15%
20%
25%
12.2%
0%
5%
10%
Greater Victoria Sooke Saanich Gulf Islands Cowichan Valley
% under 5 years
% over 20 years
Peace River Zone: Percentage of teachers with under 5 years and over 20 years experience, 2013-14
33.5% 33.0%35%
40%
22.2%
19.3%
15%
20%
25%
30%
14.6%
8.9%
0%
5%
10%
Peace River North Peace River South Fort Nelson
% under 5 years
% over 20 years
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Some demographic reflections
Districts with consistent patterns over time (Stikine Conseil scolairetime (Stikine, Conseil scolairefrancophone)
Districts with patterns that have changed (Sooke, Surrey, West Vancouver)
Districts that look like they have stayed the same but are likely to change (Nanaimo-Ladysmith, Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows)
Labour Market Issues
Are the retirement/expansion predictions accurate? If so considerable demandaccurate? If so, considerable demand for teachers.
If there is an acute labour shortage, might some teachers exit teaching and change careers?
Might the working conditions of teaching impact retention and attrition in a tightening labour market?
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Variations across BC
Where housing is relatively cheaper and employment is accessible schoolemployment is accessible, school districts are more likely to have significant student enrolment growth, with young families moving to districts like Surrey and Sooke
Industrial development: expansion or p pcontraction would impact where growth or declines take place in non-metro areas (LNG?)
