THE CHANGING ROLE OF WHEAT IN OUR WORLD€¦ · Brazil Poland Ukraine Biscuits becoming a bona fide...
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THE CHANGING ROLE OF WHEAT IN OUR WORLD 7 TH NOVEMBER 2013 – 24 TH ANNUAL IAOM MIDEAST & AFRICA CONFERENCE & EXPO BY LAMINE LAHOUASNIA – HEAD OF PACKAGED FOOD RESEARCH
Transcript of THE CHANGING ROLE OF WHEAT IN OUR WORLD€¦ · Brazil Poland Ukraine Biscuits becoming a bona fide...
THE CHANGING ROLE OF WHEAT IN OUR WORLD
7TH NOVEMBER 2013 – 24TH ANNUAL IAOM MIDEAST & AFRICA CONFERENCE & EXPO BY LAMINE LAHOUASNIA – HEAD OF PACKAGED FOOD RESEARCH
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Food Feed Fuel
The war for wheat continues
INTRODUCTION
VS VS
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD?
BAKING BREAD 2.0
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
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Bread has always been important to our lives…
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD?
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…and its importance varies significantly…
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
50
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150
200
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300
Asia Pacific
Australasia Eastern Europe
Latin America
Middle East and
Africa
North America
Western Europe
Bre
ad
as
a %
of
Pa
cka
ged
Fo
od
Kg
Per
Ca
pit
a
Regional Retail Consumption of Bread, 2013
Bread Other Packaged Food Bread %
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16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Kg
Per
Ca
pit
a
World: Retail Consumption of Bread
…but why is it on the decline?
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD?
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Today’s reality: Our diets have shifted away from staples
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD?
Farmers, fisherman, builders Large families Cheap and filling Stew or a soup
Lawyers, accountants, designers Small families Tasty and healthy Salad or a snack
Yesterday Today
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Declining consumption
of bread
Rising affluence
High prevalence of diabetes
Low carb craze
Salt concerns
Growing coeliac
diagnosis
The core reasons behind the decline of bread
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD?
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD?
BAKING BREAD 2.0
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
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Salt
Sugar
Fibre
Vitamins
Minerals
Reformulating for success
BAKING BREAD 2.0
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Appealing to the diet fanatics: Introducing the supergrains
BAKING BREAD 2.0
Ancient grains
Amaranth
Polenta
Kamut
Quinoa
Farro
Spelt Wheat berries
Barley
Bulgur
Buckwheat
Millet
Teff High Protein
Protein & Fibre
High Fibre
All Rounders
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Let them have their bread and eat it too: Gluten free
BAKING BREAD 2.0
New Zealand
Finland
Norway
Sweden
0
50
100
150
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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
US
$ P
er C
ap
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Ba
ke
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Gluten Free % of Bakery Value Sales
80 Markets: Identifying the Largest Gluten Free Markets, 2013
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD?
BAKING BREAD 2.0
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mil
lio
n T
on
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World: Retail Consumption of Flour by Product
Beverages
Non-Food
Other Packaged Food
Pastries
Noodles
Biscuits
Pasta
Bread
The decline of bread has been offset primarily by…
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
Noodles are spreading outside of traditional East Asian markets
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
7.3 Kg OF INSTANT NOODLES PER HEAD IN S. KOREA
$4.4 PRICE PER KG OF INSTANT NOODLES
Youth PREFER CHEAP, QUICK AND FLEXIBLE FOOD
3.5Kg+
1.5-3.4Kg
0.5-1.4Kg
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2010 2011 2012 2013
% B
ran
d S
ha
re
Selected Markets: Belvita’s Performance in Sweet Biscuits
Romania Saudi Arabia
France United Kingdom
Brazil Poland
Ukraine
Biscuits becoming a bona fide breakfast alternative
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
Mexico
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
USA
Russia
Other Countries
Buns
Croissants
Doughnuts
Muffins
Puff Pastries Tarts
Other Chinese Pastries
China
Demand for Pastry Flour over 2013-2015
Pastries prove perfect for on the go consumption
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
478m TONNES MORE FLOUR TO BE USED BY 2015
Clash OF FOREIGN PASTRIES AND CHINESE FLAVOUR
Lighter PASTRIES ARE PREFERRED IN CHINA
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Growth opportunities for pasta differ greatly across the world
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018
Middle East and Africa
Asia Pacific Eastern Europe
Latin America
North America
Australasia Western Europe
US
$ M
illi
on
Pasta by Health Positioning Across the World
FF Pasta Gluten-Free Pasta NH High Fibre Pasta
Organic Pasta Reduced Carb Pasta Standard Pasta
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• Wholemeal, multi-grain and gluten free could all help
• Innovation in other areas are meeting today’s changing lifestyles.
• Growing affluence and shifting diets contribute to its demise.
• In retail volume terms it is the most consumed food item worldwide.
Bread is the no.1
eaten food…
…but its popularity is waning
Focusing on health
could change its
fate…
…think noodles, biscuits, pastries
and pasta
A few things for you all to remember
KEY TAKEAWAYS
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING Lamine Lahouasnia | Head of Packaged Food Research [email protected]
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