The Changing Revenue Landscape - comm.ncsl.org · Growing reliance on sin taxes (gambling,...
Transcript of The Changing Revenue Landscape - comm.ncsl.org · Growing reliance on sin taxes (gambling,...
State Revenue Trends and VolatilityTCJA, South Dakota vs. Wayfair, Sports Betting
July 30, 2018
Lucy Dadayan
Overview
▪ State fiscal challenges
▪ Slow economic recovery
▪ Demographic changes
▪ Slower tax revenue recovery
▪ Growing reliance on non-traditional taxes
▪ Growing revenue volatility
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State fiscal challenges
▪ 10+ years later still feeling the pain of the Great Recession
▪ Variables that drive revenue hit harder than broader economy, harder than before
▪ Revenue recovery is very slow
▪ Employment and wage recovery is slow
▪ Major cuts in state-local government employment
▪ Longer-term spending pressures loom
▪ Growing pension liabilities
▪ Growing Medicaid costs due to higher recession-related enrollment
▪ Growing uncertainty due to TCJA and other federal policies
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Slow economic recovery
▪ Employment trends
▪ Slow recovery for private sector employment
▪ Deep cuts in state-local gov’t jobs
▪ Personal income trends
▪ Slower growth in wages & salaries then in prior recoveries
▪ Retail sales
▪ Weak and slow recovery
▪ Goods and services
▪ Slow recovery in services and non-durable goods
▪ High volatility in durable goods
▪ Steep declines in energy goods and services, but currently rebounding
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Employment trends since the Great Recession: Dire picture for government employment
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Dec-07 Jun-18 Peak empJune 2018
vs Dec
June 2018
vs Peak
Total nonfarm 138,411 148,912 138,419 Jan-08 7.6 7.6
Total private 116,035 126,571 116,035 Jan-08 9.1 9.1
State and local government 19,620 19,552 19,801 Aug-08 (0.3) (1.3)
State government 5,139 5,100 5,214 Aug-08 (0.8) (2.2)
State gov education 2,327 2,430 2,383 Aug-08 4.5 2.0
State gov, non-education 2,812 2,669 2,830 Aug-08 (5.1) (5.7)
Local government 14,481 14,452 14,610 Jul-08 (0.2) (1.1)
Local gov education 8,055 7,956 8,119 Jul-08 (1.2) (2.0)
Local gov, non-education 6,426 6,496 6,507 Dec-08 1.1 (0.2)
Percent change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (seasonally adjusted).
Employment Sector
Employment (in 1,000s)Recession
peak date
Private sector employment recovery much slower compared to past recoveries
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-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
24%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cu
mu
lati
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sin
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tart
of
rece
ssio
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# of years since start of recession
Private sector employment in selected recessions
1973-Nov 1980-Jan 1990-July 2001-March 2007-Dec
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES, seasonally adjusted). Notes: Data are shown only until the start of the next recession; 1980 & 1981 recessions treated as single recession.
Deep cuts in state-local government jobs; Deeper than any other recession in the last 50 years
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-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cu
mu
lati
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ange
sin
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tart
of
rece
ssio
n
# of years since start of recession
State and local government employment in selected recessions
1973-Nov 1980-Jan 1990-July 2001-March 2007-Dec
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES, seasonally adjusted). Notes: Data are shown only until the start of the next recession; 1980 & 1981 recessions treated as single recession.
State-local government employment still declining, in contrast to the rebound in private employment
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-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Cu
mu
lati
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erc
en
t c
han
ge s
ince
sta
rt o
f re
cess
ion
Employment in selected industries in the current recession
Private State gov. Local gov. State-local gov.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES, seasonally adjusted).
Growth in salaries & wages slower compared to past recoveries
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cu
mu
lati
ve %
ch
ange
sin
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tart
of
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ssio
n
# of years since start of recession
Salaries & wages for U.S. since start of recessionAdjusted for inflation
1973 1980 1990 2001 2007
Source: Author's analysis of data from Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA Table 2.1). Notes: Data are shown only until the start of the next recession; 1980 & 1981 recessions treated as single recession.
Personal savings as share of disposable personal income
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Personal savings as share of disposable personal income
Sources: Author's analysis of data from Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA Table 2.1).
Real retail sales are weak compared to historical levels
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-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
24%
27%
30%
33%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cu
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lati
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ch
ange
sin
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tart
of
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n
# of years since start of recession
Real retail sales in selected recessions
1973 1980 1990 2001 2007
Sources: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank (pre-1990 retail sales), U.S. Census Bureau (1990+), Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI).Notes: Data are shown only until the start of the next recession; 1980 and 1982 recessions are treated as single recession.
Consumption of durable & non-durable goods was hit hard
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-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Year-over-year percent change in personal consumptionFour-quarter moving average, adjusted for inflation
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
Services
Energy goods and services
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, Table 2.3.5.
Ageing population: Growth in elderly population as share of total population
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12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
Age 0-18 and age 65+ as share of total population
Age 0-18 Age 65+
Ageing population forecasts
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12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
Age 0-18 and age 65+ as share of total population
Age 0-18 Age 65+
Problems associated with aging population:Lower income and lower income tax for older individuals
▪ Total income falls for older individuals
▪ Retirement income usually less than pre-retirement earnings
▪ Aggregate retirement income is growing rapidly, but total income of retirees is lower than before retirement
▪ Tax breaks! For example:
▪ Exclusion of Social Security income, public pensions, private pensions, IRA/401(k) withdrawals
▪ Additional personal exemptions and credits for the elderly
▪ 36 of 41 states with broad-based income tax provide exclusion for some retirement income (beyond Social Security), or elderly tax credit
▪ NOT: CA, NE, ND, RI, VT
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State taxes & the economy: States taxes are far more volatile
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-18%
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Year-Over-Year Change in Inflation-Adjusted State Government Taxes and Real GDPPercent Change of Two-Quarter Moving Averages
Real GDPReal state tax revenue
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (tax revenue) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP).Notes: (1) Percentage change of 2-quarter moving averages; (2) No legislative adjustments; (3) Recession periods are shaded.
Slower tax revenue recovery
▪ 10+ years after recession start, state-local taxes only 13.4% above prior peak
▪ State government tax recovery is weak and slow
▪ Sales taxes: above pre-recession level, but stagnant
▪ Personal income taxes: stronger recovery, but quite volatile
▪ Corporate income taxes: NO recovery
▪ Local property taxes: continued but soft growth
▪ Oil & coal states hit hard
▪ Declines in taxes & employment
▪ Growing reliance on sin taxes (gambling, marijuana, etc.)
▪ Gambling revenues: declines & cannibalization
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State & local government tax revenues:Only 13.4% above prior peak
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-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cu
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sin
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n
# of years since start of recession
Percent change in state & local government major tax revenue since start of recession(PIT + CIT + Sales + Property) Four-quarter moving average, adjusted for inflation
1973 1980 1990 2001 2007
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (taxes) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP).Notes: Data are shown only until the start of the next recession; 1980 & 1981 recessions are treated as single recession.
Volatile income tax; weak sales tax; stagnant “other” taxes; corporate incomes taxes still below prior peak
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-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Cu
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lati
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ch
ange
sin
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tart
of
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n
Major tax revenues since the start of the 2007 recessionFour-quarter moving average, adjusted for inflation
Sales tax (state) PIT (state) CIT (state) Other (state) Property (local)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (taxes) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP).Notes: (1) 4-quarter moving average of inflation-adjusted tax revenue; (2) No adjustments for legislative changes.
State taxes, adjusted for inflation & population growth, still below pre-recession in 22 states
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Percent change<-10%-10% to 0%0% to 10%> 10%
Percent change in 4-quarter moving average of state tax revenues, 2018q1 vs 2007q4Adjusted for inflation & population change (U.S. average = 2.9%; U.S. median = 2.5%)
MI
VT
FL
OH
WV
AZ
CA
WI
NV
HI
PA
TN
MN
AR
IN
MO
ME
IA
MS
IL
VA
AK
GA
NM
OR
NY
KY
AL
NH
KS
ND
OK
SC
SD
NE
NC
ID
CO
MT
WA
TX LA
UT
WY
RI
MA
MD
NJ
CT
DE
State government sales taxes: Recovery is extremely weak
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42.5%
16.1%
8.1%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cu
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ch
ange
sin
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tart
of
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n
Years since start of recession
State sales tax revenue since the start of the recessionFour-quarter moving average, adjusted for inflation
1990 2001 2007
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (taxes) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP).Notes: 4-quarter moving average of inflation-adjusted tax revenue. Data are shown only until the start of the next recession.
Sales tax base and collections: Shift to services
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Goods and services as percentage of personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
Goods
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, Table 2.3.5.
State government personal income taxes:Stronger recovery, but volatile
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69.9%
12.5%
20.4%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cu
mu
lati
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ch
ange
sin
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tart
of
rece
ssio
n
Years since start of recession
State personal income tax revenue since the start of the recessionFour-quarter moving average, adjusted for inflation
1990 2001 2007
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (taxes) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP).Notes: 4-quarter moving average of inflation-adjusted tax revenue. Data are shown only until the start of the next recession.
April-June personal income tax collections are very volatile
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-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2
Year-Over-Year Nominal Percentage Change for April-June Quarters
Withholding Estimated payments Final Payments Total PIT
Source: Individual state data, analysis by the author.
Preliminary figures
(April & May)
State personal income taxes:Shortfalls last April; windfalls (?) this April
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6%
-1%-3%
-10%
-7%-8%
-7%
5%
-4%
3%
10% 10% 11% 12% 13%15%
42%
14%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
RockyMountain
FarWest
Plains NewEngland
South-west
Mid-Atlantic
South-east
GreatLakes
UnitedStates
Year-Over-Year Nominal Percent Change; April 2017 vs. April 2018
Apr-17 Apr-18
Source: Individual state data, analysis by the author.
Income shifting and capital gains
▪ In concept, taxpayers can shift many kinds of income, but…:
▪ “Regular” wages – not so easy - work less now, more later
▪ Bonus wages – easier – firms could shift out of q4 into q1 or vice versa
▪ IRA distributions – maybe not so hard
▪ Dividends - boards of closely held firms could delay payouts
▪ Capital gains - easiest - defer stock sales (rearrange assets); concentrated – 70% of cap gains claimed by just 0.7% of taxpayers
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Capital gains: Big contributor to income tax volatility
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1986
2000 2007
2012
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%Capital Gains as Percentage of GDP
Source: (1) Capital gains for 1960-1994 are from US Treasury and for 1995-2016 are from CBO at www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#7. (2) GDP from Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Capital gains are loosely related to the stock market
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-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Per
cen
t ch
ange
vs.
yea
r ag
o
Percent Change in Capital Gains Realizations vs S&P 500, by Tax Year
Capital Gains S&P 500
Sources: Congressional Budget Office, https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#7 and S&P500 from Yahoo Finance, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^GSPC.
2012: Fiscal cliff acceleration of capital
gains
2013: Capital gains trough after acceleration
2014: Rebound from trough
State government corporate income taxes:There is NO recovery
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28.4%
32.8%
-22.4%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cu
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ch
ange
sin
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tart
of
rece
ssio
n
Years since start of recession
State corporate income tax revenue since the start of the recessionFour-quarter moving average, adjusted for inflation
1990 2001 2007
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (taxes) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP).Notes: 4-quarter moving average of inflation-adjusted tax revenue. Data are shown only until the start of the next recession.
Local government property taxes:Continued growth
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29.7%
34.9%
13.5%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cu
mu
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ch
ange
sin
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tart
of
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ssio
n
Years since start of recession
Local government property tax revenue since the start of the recessionFour-quarter moving average, adjusted for inflation
1990 2001 2007
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (taxes) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP).Notes: 4-quarter moving average of inflation-adjusted tax revenue. Data are shown only until the start of the next recession.
Continued Growth in Housing Prices and in Local Property Taxes
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-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
Year-Over-Year Change in Housing Prices vs. Local Property Taxes Percent Change of Four-Quarter Moving Averages
Recession
Housing Price Index
Local Property Taxes
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (tax revenue) and Federal Housing Finance Agency, House Price Indexes data.
Oil & coal states: State tax revenues rebounding after 7 consecutive quarterly declines
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5.6% 5.5%
7.6%
4.9%3.8% 4.2%
-0.1%
2.6%1.9%
3.6% 3.2%2.4%
7.3%6.3%
4.8%3.5%
-2.9%
-6.1%
-12.7%
-11.3%-10.4%
-7.4%
-3.1%
4.1%
6.0%
4.5%
13.5%12.9%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Year-Over-Year Percent Change in State Taxes
Non-oil states Oil states
Source: Author's analysis of Census Bureau data.
Oil & coal states: Despite recovery, state taxes still below 2015 q1 levels
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-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
Cumulative percent change in state total tax revenues
Oil states Non-oil states
Oil & coal states: Employment is also still below peak levels
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-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Cumulative Percent Change in Employment
Non-oil median state
Oil median state
Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Gambling Landscape Since Great Recession
▪ 10+ states legalized lottery, casino, and racino operations
▪ Raise revenue in response to poor state fiscal conditions
▪ Stimulate economic development
▪ Counteract interstate competition for gambling revenue
▪ Attract tourism & keep gambling residents & tax dollars in-state
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More Gambling, Not Much More Revenues Since The Great Recession
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$27.7$26.7 $27.2 $26.7
$28.0$28.6 $28.2 $28.1
$18.2$17.5 $17.9 $17.4
$18.4 $18.6 $18.4 $18.2
$5.4 $4.9 $4.9 $5.0 $5.2 $5.5 $5.4 $5.4
$2.8 $2.9 $3.0 $3.1 $3.2 $3.2 $3.2 $3.3
$1.1 $1.1 $1.3 $1.1 $1.1 $1.1 $1.1 $1.0
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
Bill
ion
s
Real State & Local Government Gambling Revenue, FYs 2008-2015
Sub-total Lottery Casino Racino Pari-mutuel Indian casinos (7 states)
Wide Regional Disparity in Lottery Revenue Growth Rates
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-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Co
mp
ou
nd
An
nu
al G
row
th R
ate,
FY
20
08
-20
15
Compound Annual Growth Rates for Real Lottery Revenues, FY 2008-2015
Sources: Author's analysis of lottery revenue from state lottery financial reports.
Wide Regional Disparity in Tax and Fee Revenues from Casinos and Racinos
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-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015Cu
mu
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eal p
erce
nt
chan
ge
Cumulative Percent Change in Inflation-Adjusted Casino and Racino Taxes and Fees, By Region
Northeast Midwest South West
Steep Declines in Casino and Racino Tax & Fee Revenues in Early Adopter States
WWW.TAXPOLICYCENTER.ORG 46
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
Cu
mu
lati
ve r
eal p
erce
nt
chan
ge
Cumulative Percent Change in Inflation Adjusted Casino and Racino Taxes and Fees, All States vs. Late Adopter States
All States Early adopter states
Sources: Author's analysis of data retrieved from state gaming regulatory agencies.Notes: The following three states - Kansas, Maryland and Ohio, are identified as late adopter states since all three states started casino/racino operations after FY 2008.
Lessons from gambling revenues: Short-term relief, long-term disappointment
▪ Gambling expansion brings in more revenue, until a saturation point is reached
▪ Stiff inter-state competition for the same pool of customers
▪ Significant increases in tax and fee revenues in newly adopted casino and racino states
▪ Significant declines in tax and fee revenues in the older casino and racino states
▪ Some new revenue represents a shift, rather than net growth
▪ Future growth in gambling revenue will not keep pace with tax revenue, or spending
▪ If gambling revenue is intended to support part of the overall budget, gaps may emerge
in future years
▪ Gambling is a slow-growing revenue source & not a solution in the never-ending quest
to balance the budget
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Recap: Slow revenue recovery & growing revenue volatility
▪ The revenue recovery is weak & prolonged compared to previous recessions
▪ Differing fiscal, tax & economic structures play important roles
▪ State tax revenues increasingly more reliant on economically sensitive taxes
▪ Income taxes rely more heavily on volatile income – capital gains, bonuses
▪ Sales tax bases are eroding (taxation of goods & services sold over the Internet)
▪ Many services hard to tax: politically, legally, administratively
▪ Higher reliance on more regressive taxes
▪ Demographic changes and taxes
▪ Single-year cash balance is the goal (gimmicks, one-time solutions)
▪ No serious multi-year financial planning
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Thank you!
Lucy Dadayan
[email protected] or [email protected]
With many thanks to my former colleague, Donald Boyd
July 30, 2018
WWW.TAXPOLICYCENTER.ORG 49