The CASM for Evaluating Changes in Fish and Shellfish ... · –Used for CASM calibration and...
Transcript of The CASM for Evaluating Changes in Fish and Shellfish ... · –Used for CASM calibration and...
US Army Corps of Engineers
BUILDING STRONG®
The CASM for Evaluating Changes in Fish
and Shellfish Communities from the Delta
Management Study
Diversion Panel Presentation – Oct 27, 2015
Dynamic Solutions, LLC
CASM• Bioenergetics-based growth in an aquatic food web
• Producers: dB/Bdt = Photosynthesis – Photorespiration –Dark Respiration – Sinking – Mortality – Grazing
• Consumers: dB/Bdt = [{Consumption - (Egest+Excrete+SDA) –Respiration – Mortality – Predation} + flux ]*hmod
• Consumption and respiration depend on size, temperature; Consumption on prey and predator biomasses
• Growth modified by salinity, proportion of vegetation
Weight (g wwt) Salinity, % VegetationTemperature
1.0
0.0
Cmax
Resp(d-1)
f(T)
1.0
0.0
hmod
POC
POC
Phytoplnktn
Periphyton
Zooplnktn
Infauna
Mollusks
Bactplktn
Bacteria
Benthic InvertebratesSmall shrimpSmall crabs
Brown &
White shrimpBlue crab
Small FishAnchovy
SilversidesMenhaden
MulletsKillifish Predators
SeatroutDrums
SheepsheadFlounderCatfish
Bass
MRDM CASM
Oysters
MRDMInputs:Salinity
TemperatureChlorophyll
Water DepthEAV: WaterOyster reef
EAV
DOCN,P, S
Biological Data for the CASM• Biomass (g/m2) for initialization and calibration from LDWF
seines and trawls, NMFS drop samplers
• Lengths, catch-per-unit effort from LDWF and NMFS data
• Bioenergetic parameters, L-W, diets from literature
• Benthic infauna data from NMFS (Minello and Rozas)
• Stage-specific mortality, growth, reproduction, migration for fluxes between life stages and in and out of estuaries to complete life cycle (Baker et al. 2014; EPRI 2005; Pattillo et al. 1997)
• Habitat preferences/tolerances for temperature, salinity, vegetation for life stages, benthic infauna from LDWF and NMFS data, 2017 Master Plan HSI models, literature
MRDM CASM with LDWF and NMFS Stations
NMFS Drop
16’ Trawl
Gill Net
50’ Seine
Trammel Net
BaratariaCSA 3
Breton CSA 2
Pontchartrain CSA 1
Mean Monthly Model Species Composition in LDWF Seines from 1995-2010
CSA 1 (94% of total catch) CSA 3 (92% of total catch)CSA 2 (94% of total catch)
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f C
atch
Months
Atl. Croaker
Bay Anchovy
B. Shrimp
Caridean Sh
White ShrimpSt Mullet
Spot
Silversides
SP
SpSTKilli
G. MenhadenB. Crab
White ShrimpWhite Shrimp SM SMSpot
SpotSpSTSilversides
Silversides
G. MenhadenGM
SPKillifish
Killi
Sm. Crabs
Caridean Shrimp
Caridean Sh
B. Shrimp
B. Shrimp
B. Crab
Bay Anchovy
Bay Anchovy
Atl. CroakerAtl. Croaker
Brown Shrimp Early YOY Biomass Estimates from Data for Barataria Basin
Mean over years
** Biomass from LDWF Seines & NMFS Drops
Red Drum Early YOY Biomass Estimates from Data for Barataria Basin
Mean over years
** Biomass from LDWF Seines & NMFS Drops
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Water column POC X X X X X X X XSediment/Detritus X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XPhytoplankton X X X X X X X XPeriphyton X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XZooplankton X X X X X X X XBenthic Infauna X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XMollusks (bivalves, snails added) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XCaridean shrimp X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XSmall crabs X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XOyster spat X X X X X X XSeed/sack oysters X XSmall jv blue crab X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XLg jv/sub blue crab X X X X X X X X X X X X X XSmall jv brown shrimp X X X X X X X X X X XLg jv/sub brown shrimp X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XSmall jv white shrimp X X X X X X X X X XLg jv/sub white shrimp X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XSmall jv red drum X XSm jv Atlantic croaker X X X X X X X XSm jv gulf menhaden X X X X X X X X X X X XLg jv/adult gulf menhaden X X XJuv striped mullet X X X X X X X X X XAdult striped mullet X XJuv largemouth bass XAdult largemouth bass XSub/adult sheepshead
Small juv bay anchovy X X X X X X X X X X X XLg jv/adult bay anchovy X X X X X X X X X XSunfishes X X X XBlue catfish XThreadfin shad X X XGizzard shad X X XSm Pinfish X XSea catfish XSm juv spot X X XKillifish X X X X X XSilversides X X X X X X
Early YOY Brown Shrimp (≤ 65 mm TL)
YOY Brown Shrimp (> 65 mm TL) Early YOY Red Drum (≤ 60 mm TL)
YOY Red Drum (61-350 mm TL)
Age-1+ Red Drum (> 350 mm TL)
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enh
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Water column POC XSediment/Detritus X XPhytoplankton X XPeriphyton X XZooplankton XBenthic Infauna X X XMollusks (bivalves, snails added) X X XCaridean shrimp X X X X XSmall crabs X X X XOyster spat X X XSeed/sack oysters
Early YOY blue crab X X XLg jv/sub blue crab X XEarly YOY brown shrimp X X X XLg jv/sub brown shrimp X X
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en
Species-Specific Habitat Modifier Functions from Data
Salinity (ppt) % Vegetation
0 010 20 30 40 25 50 75 100
0
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.0
0
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.0
0
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.0
0
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.0
eYOYYOYAge-1+
eYOYYOY
Brown Shrimp
Red Drum
** Rozas and Minello 2002
Environmental Data for the CASM
• Existing conditions from 1995-2010 for model calibration and validation– Daily salinity (ppt), temperature (○C) , and Chl a (µg/l)
from 2012 Eco-Morphology model (Meselhe et al. 2013)
– 2012 Vegetation:Water map (Couvillion et al. 2013)
– Used for CASM calibration and validation
• MRDM Project Alternative Scenarios for 50 years– Daily salinity, temperature, Chl a from DELFT-3D with D-
WAQ (Meselhe et al., in prep)
– Vegetation:Water maps at 10 year intervals from Delft-3D with LA-VEG (Meselhe et al., Duke-Sylvester et al.)
– Used as CASM inputs to evaluate key species responses
CASM Polygons with Example Salinity generated from Delft-3D
Delft data provided by Meselhe et al. (WIG)
Daily Environmental Inputs for Barataria Polygons
CASM Polygons with Vegetation and Open Water Map
Land:Water data provided by Couvillion (USGS)
CASM Calibration and Validation
• Calibrate predicted biomasses to averaged observed biomass data from 1995-2010
• Adjust daily mortality rates, life stage fluxes, diet parameters, and temperature parameters
• Validate spatial distribution of species within basins related to conditions, habitat, food web
• Not shown but important to show model is a realistic and accurate representation of system
Evaluating Species Responses to MRDM Project Scenarios
• Delft-3D generated daily salinity, temperature, Chl a, Vegetation:Water inputs to 49 CASM polygons over 50 years
• Seven MRDM diversion scenarios including FWOP, single diversions, all four diversions at low and aggressive operations
• Report key species responses from TY0 for first 10 years, 20 years and at 50 years– Brown and white shrimp, blue crab, red drum,
seatrout, menhaden, largemouth bass, oysters– System-wide, basins (CSA 1, 2, 3), and sub-basins
(upper, mid, lower regions in basin)
Future WithoutProject
All FourDiversionsAggressiveOperation
Gulf Menhaden Biomass: Change from Initial Conditions
Year 10 Year 20 Year 50
Future WithoutProject
All FourDiversionsAggressiveOperation
Red Drum Biomass: Change from Initial Conditions
Year 10 Year 20 Year 50
Future WithoutProject
All FourDiversionsAggressiveOperation
Brown Shrimp Biomass: Change from Initial Conditions
Year 10 Year 20 Year 50
Brown Shrimp:System-Wide Responses Relative to TY 0
** Minimum threshold response +/-10% = No response due to variation and uncertainty
** Red more than 10% reduction; Green more than 10% increase from TY 0
FWOP ~ LBS ~ LBAR ~ MBS ~ All-A over 50 years
MBAR ~ All-L reduced ~ 18% early but gone by TY 20 and 50
MBARD FWOP MBSD LBSD LBARD ALL-L ALL-A
Years PR1 PR2 PR3 PR4 PR5 PR6 PR7
1 -16.01 -4.18 -12.48 -5.71 -5.58 -15.59 0.32
3 -18.37 -5.61 -14.15 -7.26 -7.78 -18.11 3.77
5 -18.32 -6.05 -14.09 -7.31 -7.95 -18.71 3.38
10 -8.92 6.12 -1.60 2.35 0.01 -17.16 13.85
20 -5.11 7.87 1.82 6.18 5.50 -7.91 16.36
50 -0.87 24.64 23.98 20.95 16.26 -4.46 14.21
Rel
ativ
e R
esp
on
se (
%)
in B
row
n S
hri
mp
Bio
mas
s fr
om
TY
0
Years
+/- 10%
*** Supporting results for evaluating CSA 3for lower biomasses in PR1 & PR 6
Rel
ativ
e R
esp
on
se (
%)
in B
row
n S
hri
mp
Bio
mas
s fr
om
TY
0In
Bar
atar
iaB
asin
Years
+/- 10%
*** Relative reductions largest in upperand mid basins of PR1 & PR6 (PR7)of CSA 3
Monthly Brown Shrimp Biomass in YR 1 CSA3 mid
PR 7PR 6FWOPPR 5PR 4PR 1PR 3
PR 7PR 6FWOPPR 5PR 4PR 1PR 3
Earl
y YO
Y B
row
n S
hri
mp
Bio
mas
s
Evaluating Species Responses to MRDM Project Scenarios
• Key species responses from initial conditions often less than +/-10%
• Responses vary by species and are complex
– Salinity, temperature, Chl a, Vegetation:Water, food web interactions differentially effect species and life stages within basins and by diversion scenarios
• Agency scientists working with modeling teams to interpret species responses and identify information gaps