The Case of Turkey in 2009/10 Mark Roland Thomas [email protected].
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Transcript of The Case of Turkey in 2009/10 Mark Roland Thomas [email protected].
![Page 1: The Case of Turkey in 2009/10 Mark Roland Thomas mthomas1@worldbank.org.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070403/56649f295503460f94c42549/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Including gender-sensitive policies in a
large crisis-response DPLThe Case of Turkey in 2009/10
Mark Roland [email protected]
![Page 2: The Case of Turkey in 2009/10 Mark Roland Thomas mthomas1@worldbank.org.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070403/56649f295503460f94c42549/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL
Country context
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PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL3
Turkey in mid-2009
Doubts about macro stability; no IMF program
Progress on public sector management reforms
Lack of progress on reforms affecting private
investment, the business climate, & employment
Crisis response: good dialogue & policy reforms
Strong government demand for DPL support
• In mid-2009 the Bank commenced preparation of a $1.3
billion DPL to support Turkey’s crisis response
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PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL4
Turkey’s gender disparities: 1
Male and female labor-force participation in international comparison, 1980-2006
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PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL5
Turkey’s gender disparities: 2
Male and female labor-force informality status, by age
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PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL6
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,0000
20
40
60
80
100
120
Chile
Germany
Indonesia
Italy
Russia
Sweden
Turkey
GDP per capita (USD, constant prices)
Pre
pri
mary
Enro
llm
ent
(Gro
ss)
Preschool enrollment: a key driver
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7PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL
DPLs in Turkey
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PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL8
Pre-existing DPL architecture 3 programs
• Public sector• Private sector• Energy and sustainability
Public sector• Pensions, health systems, fiscal sustainability, PFM
Private sector• Investment climate, regulation, customs, labor market
Crisis response• Transfers: short-term “job protection”• Vocational training: scale-up• Financial sector liquidity
![Page 9: The Case of Turkey in 2009/10 Mark Roland Thomas mthomas1@worldbank.org.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070403/56649f295503460f94c42549/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL9
Principal levers to reduce gender disparities in Turkey, based on
research
Education• Preschool has an impact on labor force
participation AND intergenerational transmission of inequality
Health• Green card system of universal access protects
female and maternal outcomes especially Labor markets
• Policies to reduce informality and help SMEs will benefit women differentially
Cultural factors
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10PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL
REGE DPL design
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PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL11
“Restoring Equitable Growth & Employment” (REGE DPL)
PPDPL 1+2 PPDPL 3content
Continued fiscal
consolidation
CEDPL 1+2 CEDPL 3content
Equitable growth and
employmentCrisis
Response
2007/08/09 2009/10 2011
REGE1 REGE2Public sector agenda
Private sector agenda
GlobalCrisis
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PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL12
REGE DPL prior actions(4 of 9 with likely gender-differentiated impacts)
Maintaining Inclusive Social Programs at Sustainable Cost• Social Security and Universal Health Insurance Law implementation• Global budgets for MOH hospitals and spending controls in university
and private hospitals Strengthening Public Financial Management
• Performance based budgeting Employment and Social Protection during the Crisis
• CBRT blind broker function• 50% increase and extension of short-time employment compensation to
reduce layoffs• Expansion of loan guarantees for SMEs (by TL 1 billion)• Accelerated expansion of vocational training (and stipends)
Private-Sector Led Growth and Job Creation after the Crisis• Private sector Streamlined customs procedures• Launch of universal preschool education (initially in 32 of 82 provinces)
with hiring of 15,000 preschool teachers
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PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL13
Detailed PSIA Positive net distributional & poverty reduction
impacts• Healthcare copayments have mild negative impact; to be
weighed against fiscal sustainability• Employment-related crisis measures dominate effect of
copayments• 30% of poorest 2 quintiles eligible for short-time employment
compensation• Vocational training has short-term impact on incomes (through
stipend)• Long-term poverty reduction impacts of building confidence
after the crisis c.f. 2002-08: poverty declined from 27% to 17%
Differential impacts of program on women & the young• Informal workers, children & young workers most at risk of
poverty• Preschool education reduces poverty through improved
educational attainment & labor force participation of parents, particularly mothers Estimated impacts: incomes >8%, within-cohort poverty <11%, FLFP
>9%• Reduced SS contributions for young workers & women has
limited impact
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14PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL
Concluding thoughts
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PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL15
Possible lessons on gender in a DPL
1. Built a strong base of focused empirical analysis
2. Ignored boundaries between sectors on poverty & gender dialogue
3. Exercised pragmatism in designing a feasible DPL structure
4. Invested in a detailed simulation-driven PSIA5. Kept an eye on the long-term impact of a
collaborative client relationship6. Accepted limitations from cultural factors
affecting gender outcomes
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16PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL
Q&A